*36*,686$*(217+()25(67%281'$5<32,176
6859(<,1*$1'0$33,1*
3URI'U++XOXVL$&$55HV$VVW6HOFXN*8086'U7HWVXKLNR
<26+,085$'U6HFD*$1'(6(&$5HV$VVW2]JXU723$/$.5HV$VVW+DELS(52*/8 5HV$VVW0HKPHW(.(55HV$VVW%XUDN$5,&$.(UKDQ&$/,6.$1
.DUDGHQL]7HFKQLFDO8QLYHUVLW\)DFXOW\RI)RUHVWU\7UDE]RQ785.(< .\RWR8QLYHUVLW\*UDGXDWH6FKRRORI,QIRUPDWLFV.\RWR-$3$1 %RJRU$JULFXOWXUDO8QLYHUVLW\)DFXOW\RI)RUHVWU\%RJRU,1'21(6,$ )RUHVW(QJLQHHU0DVWHU6WXGHQW.78)DFXOW\RI)RUHVWU\7UDE]RQ785.(<
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
.H\ZRUGV*36*,66XUYH\LQJ0DSSLQJ)RUHVW&DGDVWUH
,1752'8&7,21
³)RUHVW &DGDVWUH´ FDQ JHQHUDOO\ EH GHILQHG DV WKH DFWLYLWLHV WKDW GHWHUPLQH WKH JHRPHWULF DQG OHJDO ERXQGDULHVRIIRUHVW>%DVDUDQDQG7XQFHO @%DVHGXSRQWKHLVVXH1RRI)RUHVWU\/DZV IRUHVW FDGDVWUH FRPPLVVLRQV KDYH EHHQ FKDUJHG ZLWK WKH VWXGLHV RI GHWHUPLQLQJ WKH ERXQGDULHV EHWZHHQ WKH VWDWH IRUHVW DQG SULYDWHSURSRUWLRQ DQG IRUHVWV ZKLFK VRPHKRZ UHPDLQHG RXWVLGH WKH ERXQGDULHVRIWKHVWDWHIRUHVWV>*')@
8QWLO¶VWKHZRUNRIGUDZLQJWKHIRUHVWERXQGDULHVZDVGXHWRFORVHGSRO\JRQVKDSHGDFWLYLWLHV ZKLFKZHUHQRWFRQQHFWHGZLWKWKHQHWRIODQGUHIHUHQFHPDUNV$IWHUWKLVGDWHVRPHDFWLYLWLHVSDUWO\ FRQQHFWHGZLWKODQGUHIHUHQFHPDUNVVWDUWHGEXWWKHPDSVLQXVHDUHVWLOOWHFKQLFDOO\GLVVDWLVIDFWRU\,Q IRUHVWFDGDVWUHVRPHDQGVFDOHPDSVHQODUJHG RXWRIVFDOHPDSVDUHVWLOOLQ XVH
UHDVRQ WKDW FDGDVWUDO DFWLYLWLHV DUH QRW WHFKQLFDOO\ VDWLVIDFWRU\ >.L]LOD\ @ )RU WKLV UHDVRQ DFFRUGLQJWRWKHFRGHLVVXHGDOOWKLVODQGVVKRXOGEHUHPHDVXUHG
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
,W KDV EHHQ VWDUWHG WKDW WKH SHUIRUPDQFH RI *36 7HFKQRORJ\ KDV EHHQ H[SHULPHQWHG XQGHU WKH FRQGLWLRQVRIZRRGODQGYHJHWDWLRQ>'¶HRQDQG(YDQV@)XUWKHUPRUHDIHZVWXGLHVXVHG *36SULPDULO\WRFROOHFWDFFXUDWHGDWD>+RRN6XPSWHUDQG$VKHU@6RPHUHVHDUFKHVVWXGLHGWKH HIILFLHQF\RIPHDVXULQJDQGFRUUHFWLQJWKHUHDOWLPHGLVSDULWLHVRIIRUHVWERXQGDU\SRLQWVXVLQJ*36 >6XPWHUDQG$VKHU@$OOWKHVHVWXGLHVDQGRWKHUVIRFXVHGRQO\RQWKHDFFXUDF\DQGHIILFLHQWRI WKHPHDVXUHPHQWLQWKHZRRGODQGVEXWQHYHUVRXJKWWKHSRVVLELOLW\RI*36*,6LQWHJUDWLRQWRFROOHFW GDWD
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
,Q(DVWHUQ%ODFN6HD7XUNH\XVHUVKDYHUHDFKHGDQDFFXUDF\YDOXHRIPDIWHUVRPHH[SHULPHQWVWR IL[ WKH *36 GDWDTXDOLW\ XQGHU VSUXFH YHJHWDWLRQ 7KLV YDOXH LV EHOORZ WKH DFFXUDF\ YDOXH RI P DFFHSWHG DV WKH VWDQGDUG RQH WR EH XVHG LQ *36 FDGDVWUDO DFWLYLWLHV >8QLWHG 6WDWHV 'HSDUWPHQW RI $JULFXOWXUH)RUHVW 6HUYLFH DQG 8V 'HSDUWPHQW RI WKH ,QWHULRU%XUHDX RI /DQG 0DQDJHPHQW @ ><RVKLPXUDHWDO@
0$7(5,$/$1'0(7+2'
0DWHULDO
7KLV VWXG\ ZDV FRQGXFWHG LQ 'X]NR\ 'LVWULFW 7DVRFDJÕ 9LOODJH 7UDE]RQ ,Q WKLV YLOODJH WKH IRUHVW FDGDVWUDOVXUYH\VZHUHFRQGXFWHGE\WKHQR&RPPLWWHHRI*HQHUDO'LUHFWRUDWHRI)RUHVWV6XUYH\V VWDUWHGLQDQGZHUHFRPSOHWHGE\WKHQRFRPPLVVLRQ LQDQGSXWLQWRSUDFWLFH
,QWKLVVWXG\ZKLFKLQWHQGWRPHDVXUHDQGPDSWKHIRUHVWFDGDVWUDOERXQGDU\SRLQWV7KHUHVHDUFKD VFDOHWRSRJUDSKLFPDSSURGXFHGE\WKHJHQHUDO'LUHFWRUDWHRI0DSSLQJDQGSUHSDUHGE\WKH FDGDVWUDOFRPPLVVLRQQRDQGLQFOXGLQJWKHLQIRUPDWLRQRQIRUHVWFDGDVWUDOILOHDQGLWVVXUYH\DUHD $ 7ULPEOH *HR ([SORUHU ,,, *36 UHFHLYHU ZDV XVHG WRJHWKHU IRUHVW ERXQGDU\ SRLQW FRRUGLQDWH LQIRUPDWLRQ7RHYDOXDWHWKLVSLHFHRILQIRUPDWLRQ7ULPEOH3DWKILQGHURIILFHVRIWZDUHZDVXVHGDQG $UFYLHZZKLFKLV*,6VRIWZDUHZDVXVHGWRPDSDOOWKLVLQIRUPDWLRQ
0HWKRG
7KHVXUYH\RIIRUHVWERXQGDU\SRLQWVZDVFRQGXFWHGXVLQJD7ULPEOH*HR([SORUHU,,,*36UHFHLYHU ZLWKDIUHHVWDWLFPHDVXUH6WDQGLQJRQWKHERXQGDU\SRLQWIL[HGRQHDUWKXVHUVPDGHUHFRUGVIRU HDFKSRLQW7KHVHGDWDZKHUHHYDOXDWHXVLQJ3DWKILQGHUVRIWZDUHDQGZDVIRUPHGDV³$UFYLHZVKDSH ILOH´)LJXUH
)LJXUH7ULPEOH*363DWKILQGHU6RIWZDUHXVHGWRSURFHVV*36GDWD
7KHGDWDLQDUFYLHZVKDSHZHUHWUDQVIHUUHGWR$UFYLHZVRIWZDUH$QDO\]LQJWKHWRSRJUDSKLFPDSRQ DUFYLHZVRIWZDUHZDVFRQVWUXFWHGRQWKHGDWDEDVH7KHFRRUGLQDWHLQIRUPDWLRQRQWKHXSSHUULJKWKDQG FRUQHURIWKHDQDO\]HGSLFWXUHZDVWUDQVIHUUHGWRDGHVFULSWLYHILOHXVLQJ870FRRUGLQDWHV\VWHPDQG ('GDWXPWUDQVIRUPDWLRQ3L[HOGLPHQVLRQDQGFHQWUDOFRRUGLQDWHVZHUHGHILQHGLQWKLVILOH
)LJXUH$UFYLHZ*,6JUDSKLFDQGVHOITXDOLW\GDWDEDVH
),1',1*6
)LJXUHSUHVHQWVWKHSRLQWRI7DVRFDJÕ9LOODJHIRUHVWFDGDVWUDOPDSVKRZLQJWKHWKDQGUGIRUHVW ERXQGDU\ SRLQWV DQG SURGXFHG DV WKH FRQFOXVLRQ RI WKH VXUYH\V FRQGXFWHG RQ ODQG VXUIDFH ZLWK 7ULPEOH*RH([SORUHU,,,*36UHFHLYHUWUDQVIHUULQJWKHGDWDUHODWHGWRWKHIRUHVWERXQGDU\SRLQWVWR WRSRJUDSKLFPDSV
,QWKLVVWXG\DFRPSDULVRQEHWZHHQDQGHYDOXDWLRQRIWKHFDGDVWUDOPDSPDGHE\WKHFRPPLVVLRQDQG WKHRQHSURGXFHGDIWHUWKHVXUYH\RQWKHQXPHULFJUDQWVLVPDGH
7R VHUYH WKLV SXUSRVH ZLWK WKH FORVXUH RI WKH SRO\JRQ EHWZHHQ WKH VXUYH\HG WK DQG UG IRUHVW ERXQGDU\ SRLQWV D IRUHVWERUGHU GUDZLQJ ZDV PDGH SRVVLEOH 'HSHQGLQJ XSRQ WKLV LQIRUPDWLRQ D TXHVWLRQLQJZDVPDGHRQWKHGDWDEDVHRIWKLVDUHDZKLFKZDVGHILQHGDVWKHVWDWHVIRUHVWODQG
#
# )RUHVW %RXQGDU\ 3RLQWV
0HDVXUHG %RXQGDU\ /LQH
)RUHVW $UHDV
$JULFXOWXUDO $UHDV $75,%87(6
7$62&$*, 9,//$*(
)25(67 %281'$5< 0$3
6FDOH
)LJXUH1XPHULF4XDQWLWDWLYH)RUHVW&DGDVWUDO0DSPDGHRQ*,6JURXQG
RI PDNLQJ DQ\ HUURUV LQ WUDQVIHUULQJ WKH GDWD JDWKHUHG E\ *36 WR *,6 GDWDEDVH 7KLV DFWLYLW\ LV
$UHD VTXDUH OHQJWK RWKHU PHDVXUHV LQ WKH *,6 QXPHULFDO GDWDEDVH DUH FRQVLGHUDEO\ HDV\
0HDQZKLOHXSGDWLQJWKHGDWDLVQRWSUREOHPDWLFDQGQRWH[SHQVLYH7KLVVWXG\VKRZVWKDWWKH
FRPELQDWLRQ RI *,6 DQG *36 DFWLYLWLHV SOD\ D FUXFLDO UROH LQ GHYHORSLQJ WKH VXUYH\V RI WKH
ERXQGDU\ SRLQWV DQG PDNLQJ DQG GXSOLFDWLQJ IRUHVW FDGDVWUDO PDSV 7KLV DSSURDFK SURYLGHV
ZLWKRXWDQ\GLIILFXOWLHVDQXPEHURIDGYDQWDJHVIRUWKRVHZKRZRUNRQZRRGODQGV
,WLVFRQVLGHUHGWREH QHFHVVDU\WRXVHWKHLQWHJUDWLRQRI*,6DQG*36WRSUHSDUHIRUHVWFDGDVWUDOPDSV ,QWHUPVRIWKLVV\VWHPGHWDLOVOLNHVFDOHFKDQJHVPDSXSGDWLQJDQGFRRUGLQDWHYDOXHGHWHUPLQDWLRQV DUH FRQGXFWHG DFFXUDWHO\ HDVLO\ DQG YHU\ UDSLGO\ $SDUW IURP WKLV SDLQWLQJ VRPH VSHFLDO VLJQV PD[LPL]LQJDQGPLQLPL]LQJDQGGXSOLFDWLQJFRXOGEHDFKLHYHGHDVLO\DQGUDSLGO\
*HQHUDO'LUHFWRUDWHRI)RUHVWKDVVWDUWHGVRPHSLORWVWXGLHVLQFDGDVWUDODFWLYLWLHVWRLQWHJUDWH*36DQG *,6 IDFLOLWLHV ,W LV QHFHVVDU\ WR PDNH WKHVH VWXGLHV ZLGH VSUHDG DQG FRPSOHWH WKH ZRUN RI IRUHVW FDGDVWUHWKURXJKRXWWKHFRXQWU\
%UDFNHWW ' 3 DQG $UYDQLWLV / * ³,QWHJUDWLQJ *,6 *36 $QG 0RELOH &RPSXWLQJ )RU )RUHVW 5HVRXUFH ,QYHQWRULHV´ 6FKRRO RI )RUHVW 5HVRXUFHV DQG &RQVHUYDWLRQ 8QLYHUVLW\ RI )ORULGD KWWSDULVVIUFXIOHGX/DERUDWRLUHV*,6SDSHUV
%XUURXJK 3 ³3ULQFLSOHV RI *HRJUDSKLFDO ,QIRUPDWLRQ 6\VWHPV IRU /DQG 5HVRXUFHV $VVHVVPHQW 2[IRUG8QLYHUVLW\´2[IRUG
'(RQ 6 3 ³$FFXUDF\ $QG 6LJQDO 5HFHSWLRQ 2I $ +DQG+HOG *OREDO 3RVLWLRQLQJ 6\VWHP *36 5HFHLYHU´7KH)RUHVWU\&KURQLFOH
(UGDV 2 $FDU ++ 7XQD\ 0 DQG .DUDPDQ $ ³)RUHVW /DERXU DQG 3URGXFWLRQV )RUHVW 5RDGV 7KH 7UDQVSRUWDWLRQ RI )RUHVWU\ 3URGXFWV 0HFKDQL]DWLRQ LQ )RUHVWU\ 3UREOHPV &RQFHUQLQJ 3URSHUW\ ± &DGDVWUDO DQG 3URSDVDOV RI 6ROXWLRQ´ 7XUNH\ )RUHVWU\ 5HSRUW .78 )DFXOW\ RIL )RUHVWU\3UHV1R7UDE]RQ
(YDQV ' / 5 : &DUUDZD\ DQG * 7 6LPPRQV ³8VH 2I *OREDO 3RVLWLRQLQJ 6\VWHP *36 )RU )RUHVW3ORW/RFDWLRQ´6RXWKHUQ-RXUQDORI$SSOLHG)RUHVWU\
*')DQG'HSDUWPHQWRI3URSHUW\)RUHVW&DGDVWUDWH³,Q$FFRUGDQFHZLWK)RUHVW/DZV,VVXH1R DQGWKHSUDFWLFHVRI$UWLFOH%RIWKH6DPH&RGH´$QNDUD
*HQHUDO 'LUHFWRUDWH RI 25.2< ³5HJXODWLRQV WR VXSSRUW WKH 'HYHORSPHQW RI )RUHVWHUV´ 25.g< 3UHVV1R6LVWHP2IVHW$QNDUD
.Õ]ÕOD\ ( ³,VVXH RI )RUHVW /DZV DQG 3URVHFXWLRQ RI )RUHVWU\ &ULPHV DQG 5HODWHG &RGHV 3UDFWLFHVDQG9HUGLFWVRI6XSUHPH&RXUW´*')3XEOLFDWLRQV$QNDUD
.RVH 6 DQG %DVNHQW (= ³7KH 5ROH RI *,6 LQ RXU )RUHVWU\ , &RXQFLO RI *HQHUDO 'LUHFWLRQ 2I )RUHVWVLQ7XUNH\´3DSHUVDQG5HSRUWVRI6XEFRPLVLRQV*HQHUDO'LUHFWRUDWHRI)RUHVWV9ROXPH 6HULDOQRSUHVV1ÕS$QNDUD
6XPSWHU&:DQG*:$VKHU³*36*RHV5HDO7LPH´&LYLO(QJLQHHULQJ 8QLWHG6WDWHV'HSDUWPHQWRI$JULFXOWXUH)RUHVW6HUYLFHDQG8QLWHG6WDWHV'HSDUWPHQWRIWKH,QWHULRU
%XUHDX RI /DQG 0DQDJHPHQW ³6WDQGDUGV DQG *XLGHOLQHV IRU &DGDVWUDO 6XUYH\V 8VLQJ *OREDO 3RVLWLRQLQJ6\VWHP0HWKRGV´
KWWSZZZIVIHGXVGDWDEDVHJSVJSVJXLGHOLQHVJXLGHOLQHVBBKWP