Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

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Beny Bastiawan

A Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Science Of Bogor Agricultural University

MASTER SCIENCE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

GRADUATE SCHOOL

(3)

STATEMENT

I, Beny Bastiawan, here by stated that this thesis entitled:

Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

Are result of my own work during the period of June until August 2003 and it has not been published before. The content of the thesis has been examined by the advising committee and the external examiner.

Bogor, September 2005

(4)

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

First of all I would like to grateful thanks to Allah S.W.T for his favor and giving me power in order to finish this research. There are many people I should thank in regard to this work and no doubt I will not be able to name one by one. To these I can but beg forgiveness.

I wish to thank to my supervisor Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M.Sc. and my co-supervisor Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M.Sc. for their guidance, technical comments and constructive criticism trough all months of my research.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Tania June M.Sc., Chairman of study program MIT for her kindness and providing academic assistance.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Akhmad Fauzi M.Sc. as the external examiner of this thesis for his positive ideas and inputs.

I would like to thank Bpk. Drs. Sudaryono, Bpk. Ir. Arief Yuwono MA., Bpk. Drs. Heru Waluyo M.Com, Ibu Ir. Wahyu Indraningsih for my appreciate very much the thoughtfulness and support also my colleague in Assistant Deputy for Coastal and Marine Degradation Control division, the Ministry of Environment.

I would also thank to all our lecture in MIT, Dr. Ir. R. Kaswaji, M. Sc, and Virza Syafaat S., SE. M.Sc. who taught me the very important knowledge for my future.

To the entire friends, MIT students especially study year 2001, I really appreciate our togetherness and how we support each other to finish our study. And Also to the All MIT student , who give me support prepare this research.

(5)

CURRICULUM VITAE

Beny Bastiawan was born in Bandung, West Java,

Indonesia on March 7, 1964. He received his under

graduate degree from Computer and Information

Management College STI&K, Jakarta in 1996 in the field

of Information Technology (IT). From the year of 1987 to

1990, he work for The State Ministry of Environmental of

Indonesia, and from 1991 until 2000 he work for The Impact Management Agencies

of Indonesia (BAPEDAL). Since 2000 to present, he works as Staff in the Ministry

of Environment Republic of Indonesia .

In the year of 2001, Beny Bastiawan received a scholarship from the Ministry

of Environment Republic of Indonesia to pursue his graduate study. He received his

Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management

from Bogor Agricultural University in September 30, 2005 respectively. His thesis

(6)

ABSTRACT

Beny Bastiawan (2005). Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia. Under the Supervision of Kudang Boro Seminar and Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo

This research was conducted from April 2004 – January 2005 in bogor, West Java – Indonesia. The area of study is the Sea Waters at Indonesia especially on the Region Management of Fisheries of Indonesia.

The General objective of the research area : 1. To recommendation a strategy of Indonesia to release commerce issue of marine fish product in facing up the international forum, 2. To estimation of Indonesian position in related to free trade issue in the sector of marine fisheries.

The input data are collected from various source among other 1. the Ministry of Marine affairs and Fisheries of Indonesia. 2. Statistics Indonesia of The Republic of Indonesia (BPS), 3. Center for Oceanography Research of The Indonesian Institute of Science ( P2O LIPI) and others.

The analysis method used the simulation model by Dynamic modeling where we focusing on sub model such as Buffer Stock, Production, Exploitation, demand and Supply. Also the Method for the research of Simulation model for Tuna and Shrimp production in Indonesia are several aspects that is from research of natural growth of fish population ( Tuna and Shrimp) natural added from illegal fishing influencing with growth of fish resources (Tuna).

Later; Then from fish resource population ( Stock of Fish resource) existing this hence seen ability of Tuna and Shrimp production and related ability of effort capturing of fish resources ( Catch Per Effort Unit) in tuna production and Shrimp. As for the Fish Resource concern of ability of fish production is very influence by capacities of Maximum Sustainable Yield in each of Fish resources (Tuna and Shrimp) making this Maximum Sustainable Yield is limitation of Exploitation of Fish resources.

Henceforth model will be tried validation model to see how accurate of itself model in simulation. And in the end will be seen how big and make everlasting him exploit fish resources related to Maximum Sustainable Yield between Exporting and Import. To see the mention of Simulation model than some scenario alternative those are scenario by 1.) Condition of existing where each the variable of relating with the data existing data of this matter was we assume as scenario which still moderate; 2.) Condition where the output is productivity become the target of maximally assigned value for Maximum Sustainable Yield most optimum tolerance range; 3.) Related with the conservation concept where expected for the fisheries resource remain to make Sustainable but the production output of seen did not maximum.

(7)

Form

Research Title : Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

Student Name : Beny Bastiawan

Student ID : G015010051

Study Program : Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management

Approved by, Advisory Board:

Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M. Sc. Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M. Sc.

Supervisor Co-Supervisor

Endorsed by,

Program Coordinator Dean of The Graduate School

Dr. Ir. Tania June, M. Sc. Prof. Dr. Ir. Syafrida Manuwoto, M. Sc.

(8)

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Relation between level growth of fishery and activity of assessment of

stock needed... 34

Table 2. Resource Fish catch and landing of Fish of each study region... 37

Table 3. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources (pelagic fish) 1997 ... 39

Table 5. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (shrimp) 1997... 40

Table 6. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (penaied) 2001 ... 40

Table 7. Catch Per Effort Unit for Tuna and Shrimp... 42

Table 8. MSY Calculation referred Shaefer Model ... 47

Table 9. Model validation with the Tuna Resources ... 51

Table 10. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(Pelagic ) 2001 (ton)... 52

Table 11. Result execute simulation for sub model Buffer Stock. ... 57

Table 12. boundary of Maximal ideal of production. ... 60

Table 13. Simulation Model for Tuna ... 63

Table 14. Result of Import Fresh Tuna and Canned Tuna... 66

Table 16. Simulasi model Scenario I ... 71

Table 17 . Simulasi model Scenario II... 74

Table 18. Simulasi model Scenario III ... 76

Table 19. Variable for Simulation Model ... 78

Table 20. Scenario I (Moderate) ... 79

Table 21. Scenario II (Optimistic) ... 79

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Beny Bastiawan

Graduate School

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Beny Bastiawan

A Thesis submitted for the degree of Master of Science Of Bogor Agricultural University

MASTER SCIENCE IN INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY FOR NATURAL RESOURCES MANAGEMENT

GRADUATE SCHOOL

(13)

STATEMENT

I, Beny Bastiawan, here by stated that this thesis entitled:

Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

Are result of my own work during the period of June until August 2003 and it has not been published before. The content of the thesis has been examined by the advising committee and the external examiner.

Bogor, September 2005

(14)

ACKNOWLEDGMENT

First of all I would like to grateful thanks to Allah S.W.T for his favor and giving me power in order to finish this research. There are many people I should thank in regard to this work and no doubt I will not be able to name one by one. To these I can but beg forgiveness.

I wish to thank to my supervisor Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M.Sc. and my co-supervisor Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M.Sc. for their guidance, technical comments and constructive criticism trough all months of my research.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Tania June M.Sc., Chairman of study program MIT for her kindness and providing academic assistance.

I would like to thank to Dr. Ir. Akhmad Fauzi M.Sc. as the external examiner of this thesis for his positive ideas and inputs.

I would like to thank Bpk. Drs. Sudaryono, Bpk. Ir. Arief Yuwono MA., Bpk. Drs. Heru Waluyo M.Com, Ibu Ir. Wahyu Indraningsih for my appreciate very much the thoughtfulness and support also my colleague in Assistant Deputy for Coastal and Marine Degradation Control division, the Ministry of Environment.

I would also thank to all our lecture in MIT, Dr. Ir. R. Kaswaji, M. Sc, and Virza Syafaat S., SE. M.Sc. who taught me the very important knowledge for my future.

To the entire friends, MIT students especially study year 2001, I really appreciate our togetherness and how we support each other to finish our study. And Also to the All MIT student , who give me support prepare this research.

(15)

CURRICULUM VITAE

Beny Bastiawan was born in Bandung, West Java,

Indonesia on March 7, 1964. He received his under

graduate degree from Computer and Information

Management College STI&K, Jakarta in 1996 in the field

of Information Technology (IT). From the year of 1987 to

1990, he work for The State Ministry of Environmental of

Indonesia, and from 1991 until 2000 he work for The Impact Management Agencies

of Indonesia (BAPEDAL). Since 2000 to present, he works as Staff in the Ministry

of Environment Republic of Indonesia .

In the year of 2001, Beny Bastiawan received a scholarship from the Ministry

of Environment Republic of Indonesia to pursue his graduate study. He received his

Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management

from Bogor Agricultural University in September 30, 2005 respectively. His thesis

(16)

ABSTRACT

Beny Bastiawan (2005). Simulation Model For Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia. Under the Supervision of Kudang Boro Seminar and Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo

This research was conducted from April 2004 – January 2005 in bogor, West Java – Indonesia. The area of study is the Sea Waters at Indonesia especially on the Region Management of Fisheries of Indonesia.

The General objective of the research area : 1. To recommendation a strategy of Indonesia to release commerce issue of marine fish product in facing up the international forum, 2. To estimation of Indonesian position in related to free trade issue in the sector of marine fisheries.

The input data are collected from various source among other 1. the Ministry of Marine affairs and Fisheries of Indonesia. 2. Statistics Indonesia of The Republic of Indonesia (BPS), 3. Center for Oceanography Research of The Indonesian Institute of Science ( P2O LIPI) and others.

The analysis method used the simulation model by Dynamic modeling where we focusing on sub model such as Buffer Stock, Production, Exploitation, demand and Supply. Also the Method for the research of Simulation model for Tuna and Shrimp production in Indonesia are several aspects that is from research of natural growth of fish population ( Tuna and Shrimp) natural added from illegal fishing influencing with growth of fish resources (Tuna).

Later; Then from fish resource population ( Stock of Fish resource) existing this hence seen ability of Tuna and Shrimp production and related ability of effort capturing of fish resources ( Catch Per Effort Unit) in tuna production and Shrimp. As for the Fish Resource concern of ability of fish production is very influence by capacities of Maximum Sustainable Yield in each of Fish resources (Tuna and Shrimp) making this Maximum Sustainable Yield is limitation of Exploitation of Fish resources.

Henceforth model will be tried validation model to see how accurate of itself model in simulation. And in the end will be seen how big and make everlasting him exploit fish resources related to Maximum Sustainable Yield between Exporting and Import. To see the mention of Simulation model than some scenario alternative those are scenario by 1.) Condition of existing where each the variable of relating with the data existing data of this matter was we assume as scenario which still moderate; 2.) Condition where the output is productivity become the target of maximally assigned value for Maximum Sustainable Yield most optimum tolerance range; 3.) Related with the conservation concept where expected for the fisheries resource remain to make Sustainable but the production output of seen did not maximum.

(17)

Form

Research Title : Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia

Student Name : Beny Bastiawan

Student ID : G015010051

Study Program : Master of Science in Information Technology for Natural Resources Management

Approved by, Advisory Board:

Dr. Ir. Kudang Boro Seminar, M. Sc. Dr. Ir. Hartrisari Hardjomidjojo, M. Sc.

Supervisor Co-Supervisor

Endorsed by,

Program Coordinator Dean of The Graduate School

Dr. Ir. Tania June, M. Sc. Prof. Dr. Ir. Syafrida Manuwoto, M. Sc.

(18)

LIST OF TABLES

Table 1. Relation between level growth of fishery and activity of assessment of

stock needed... 34

Table 2. Resource Fish catch and landing of Fish of each study region... 37

Table 5. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (shrimp) 1997... 40

Table 6. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Shrimp Resources (penaied) 2001 ... 40

Table 7. Catch Per Effort Unit for Tuna and Shrimp... 42

Table 8. MSY Calculation referred Shaefer Model ... 47

Table 9. Model validation with the Tuna Resources ... 51

Table 10. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources(Pelagic ) 2001 (ton)... 52

Table 11. Result execute simulation for sub model Buffer Stock. ... 57

Table 12. boundary of Maximal ideal of production. ... 60

Table 13. Simulation Model for Tuna ... 63

Table 16. Simulasi model Scenario I ... 71

Table 17 . Simulasi model Scenario II... 74

Table 18. Simulasi model Scenario III ... 76

Table 19. Variable for Simulation Model ... 78

Table 20. Scenario I (Moderate) ... 79

Table 21. Scenario II (Optimistic) ... 79

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LIST OF FIGURE

Figure 1. Study Area (Indonesia Map )... 14

Figure 2. Logical Frame Work... 16

Figure 3. Diagram input – Output of Economic Strategic of Fish resources Indonesia... 17

Figure 4. (Logical frame work for forming the model of Indonesian economic development in Marine and Fisheries (The Steps in System Analysis John Sterman, 2000) ... 21

Figure 5. Region Management of Fishery (WPP) (dahuri, R.. 2003) ... 37

Figure 6. Illustration Model assumption from Shcaefer Model ... 46

Figure 7. Overall Causal loop Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia... 49

Figure 8. Structure model Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia... 50

Figure 9. Interface Structure model Simulation Model for Tuna and Shrimp Production in Indonesia ... 50

Figure 10. Graphic with Model validation with the Tuna Resources ... 52

Figure 11. Sub – Model Buffer Stock ... 56

Figure 12. Graphic Buffer Stock ... 57

Figure 13. Sub – Model Production ... 58

Figure 14. Boundary of maximal ( exploitation for tuna) ... 59

Figure 15. Sub – Model Exploitation ... 61

Figure 16. Total export value of Tuna and Shrimp ... 63

Figure 17. Sub – Model Demand ... 65

Figure 18. Number value of Fresh Tuna and Frozen Tuna Import ... 65

Figure 19. Number value of Fresh Tuna and Frozen Tuna Import ... 67

Figure 20 . Simulasi model Scenario I ... 71

Figure 21. Simulation Model Scenario II... 73

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LIST OF APPENDIX

Appendix 1. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery Resources ... 83

Appendix 2. Export Total of Fishery Products 1993 - 2002 ... 85

Appendix 3. Estimation of Potency, Production and Exploited of Fishery... 87

Appendix 4. Model Formulation ... 90

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I.

INTRODUCTION

1.1. Background

In order to support policies to perform the Basic Strategy Compilation

of Indonesian Economic Position policy in Marine and Fishery Area In

Multilateral Commerce System Frame World Trade Organization (WTO),

some policies and steps could be taken by Government in supporting

some policy strategies, for example:

a. Inventory Problems of marine and fishery area in international trade

forum especially in Tuna fish and Shrimp.

b. Inventory Strategy of Indonesian Economic Policy Marine and

Fishery Area, Industry and Commerce zone area of corporate world

in Multilateral Commerce System Frame – WTO

c. Forming the development model of Indonesian economy in marine

and fishery area as elementary strategy compilation reference.

From above policy Strategy therefore third point for the “Forming the

development model of Indonesian economy in marine and fishery area as

elementary strategy compilation reference”, represents the study

requirement analysis for the needed quantity.

As Model requirement will be conducted in this empiric, hence it needs

various quantitative data from the used parameters and variables. In the

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dissimilar variables, which are not needed by quantitative data of

valuation to the parameter. By conducting monetary supervision from

available fishery data, internalizing various variables hopefully can be

performed to structure more hierarchical development model.

As fundamental attention that Indonesia has the biggest territorial

waters area in the world with the fishery commodity owning value export

like Tuna and shrimp, it needs the elementary strategy in facing up the

consultation – related to WTO consultation in the fishery sector. This

matter is significant to maintain the product competitiveness and secure

the high value of fishery resource capacities.

Considering that this elementary strategy compilation refers to the

system of WTO and is constituted by simulation and model, hence its

specialty in the effort management of marine resource and national

fishery requires the existence of forming modeling system. This Modeling

system basically represents the sub-system model of Indonesian economy.

Refer to the valuation mentioned above, the stock resources on the marine

and national fishery represent the step of initial model forming. In this

context, the stock is including mutation of stock resource, the affect of the

redundancy from the mutation stock and contribution of mutation activity

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1.2. Objectives

This study is aimed to develop the economic policy strategy of

Indonesia in facing up the International forum in area of marine and

fishery.

From the inferential above opinion, the objectives are:

a. To recommend strategy of Indonesia to release commerce issue of

marine fish product in facing up the International Forum.

b. Stipulating estimation of Indonesian position related to free trade

issue in the sector of marine and fishery.

This study result will be strategy model of Indonesia to respond

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II.

LITERATURE REVIEW

2.1. The Commerce of Multilateral-WTO

World Trade Organization (WTO Agreements signed in Marrakech in

1994 is purposed to create fair commerce and more market oriented one

through developing tied and multilateral agreements. One of the main

principles in rule implementation of WTO agreements is the

non-discriminative which means not treat distinctively the industry

domestically or broadly. Recently, fishery sector is not included in

Agreement on Agriculture, so the solution in WTO forum always tends to

enter the non-agriculture group. Though for Indonesia, during the time,

fishery sector represents one of policy dimension from agriculture policy

in general. Consequently, benefit from free trade in agricultural sector

which in Agreement on Agriculture (AoA) comprises fundamental pillars:

(a) reduce all form of the exporting subsidiary; (b) repair access to the

market; and (c) reduce domestic support; cannot be enjoyed by commerce

mechanism of available fishery result.

Before KTM WTO IV Doha, commerce of fishery yields was discussed

more in Committee Sanitary-PhytoSanitary (SPS) and Technical Barrier

To Trade (TBT). From early 2002 it has been studied also in Committee

on Trade and Environment (CTE) and Negotiating Groups on Rules and

Negotiating Groups on Market Access for Non Agricultural Products

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especially those concerning Agreement on Agriculture (AoA), Indonesia

had better prepare settled strategy so that the negotiation in fishery sector

could increase export stream of fisher products and yields, and provide

beneficial advantages for thee development of fishery industry in future.

Globalization era brings the export to the larger opportunity one but at the

same time we should watch out our domestic market because imported

products might flow tremendously into the domestic market. Fishery

yields produced in many countries; as a result the competition is

increasingly tight because there are more and more perpetrators in

international market. Hence, only few products of competitiveness win

the emulation. Advancing competitiveness is absolutely needed through

efficiency advancement at any levels of efforts, advancement the quality

of human resources (skills and professionalism), and development of

resource base products having comparative excellences.

On the other side, Indonesia as biggest archipelago country in the

world broadly region of territorial water for the width of 5, 8 million km2

(3 / 4 region represents the region of physical water ecosystems), more

than 17.500 islands and 81.000 km second biggest coastline after Canada,

owns an sustainable potency (Maximum Sustainable Yield = MSY)

fishery resources yields from 6,4 million tons per year (BRKP-DKP,

2001). From the sustainable potency, almost 5,14 million tons per year

derives from territorial waters and archipelago, and 1,26 million tons per

year from Indonesian Exclusive Economic Zone (ZEEI). If permitted

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MSY, hence the fish resources yields equal to 5,12 million tons per year

will be available. Based on the record of fishery capture, in the year 2001

number total capture is 4,069 million tons (BPS, 2001). It means that

usage levels of fishery resources in Indonesia recently reaches 63,50%. It

also means that the exploiting opportunities equals 36,5% or at least

ranging from 1,12 to 2,4 million tons per year with the productivities rate

assumption that the capture is as many as the previous years.

If manageable exploiting potency we have for the sake of the national

interests is production bases which are regularly established, particularly

to develop distribution bases mainly in the frame of international

commerce, many barriers are found. The barriers might be grouped into

tariff barrier, non tariff and other issues. The emerging tariff barrier is the

existence of tariff escalation discriminative attitudes. For instance,

European Union apply tariff to 24 % for the canned Tuna cultivation,

20% for canned shrimp and 25% for Mackerel. Meanwhile, the US

applies the tariff to 34% for canned Tuna in the oil. Another

discriminative treatment is the customs tariff liberation for the imported

canned Tuna from the countries associated in ACP in EU market and in

pouch tune from the counties associated in Andean Pact found in the US.

Meanwhile, until recently Indonesia is said to be liberal in applying tariff

for fishery yield and also said to be low, i.e. 0 – 5%, with 3,5 %

averagely, even it does not apply escalation tariff.

Other technical borders in intenational commerce of the fishery yields

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microbe, pathogen, hystamine, heavy metal and hormone. Even, the

European Union tend to use the complex food safety condition. EU

deliver embargo on the exported shell products coming from Indonesia

due to we have not yet been monitoring system on waters sanitary which,

in EU version, belong to our responsibility. Meanwhile, US also apply

various requirements that might be a hiden barrier, such as the obligation

to use TEDs, or ‘accuation’ of using longline and gillnet on capturing

Tuna. This usage is pressumbably endangesr the seabird and leatherback

turtles.

Although recently the export comodity of marine and fishery have not

yet become the main commodity, but the strategic environment and

modality, more over the competitors countries are in short of fishery and

marine resources, Indonesia has opportunity to be an outstanding

industrious country of fisheries in the world.

Therefore, Indonesia have to take several strategics steps to safe

(safeguard) marine and fishery commodity from the probblems in this

sector, either in recent time or future, particularly those related to world

commerce in the frame of World Trade Organization (WTO) or in the

frame of regional Free Trade Area (FTA), in which Indonesia belongs to

it.

Indonesia is one of the members of Agreement Establishing WTO and

had also rafied Agreement Establshing the World Trade Organization

with UU no 7 in the year of 1994 about legalizing Agreement Establshing

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Paper no 3564) desepite Indonesia did not ratify the entire agreements

ehich are Annex of Agreement Establishing the WTO.

By signing and ratifying the WTO, every member state, including

Indonesia, has the legal rights not to be treated discriminatively by other

members in treatment of tariff area, non tariff as well as the treatment in

national. Besides, member states of WTO is also entitled to fight for the

authority, for example, through solving dispute of WTO and blame the

other state policies presumably harmful for the interests of developing

countries in many relevant forums of WTO.

For the state which is ready for globalization, accordingly all

negotiations resulted from WTO forum will be the opportunity (big

opportunity), for example, to reduce tariff. Eliminating trade barrier in

other countries can give big opportunity to the export of the developing

countries, including Indonesia. However, on the other side, WTO does

not only create opportunity, but also threat. System of world commerce

will be complicated and tightly regulated. Thereby for state which is not

ready, the existence of tight regulation in WTO exactly will pursue the

state commerce growth. It is impossible that various agreement of WTO

is utilized by developed countries to protect their domestic interests from

coming import. Other significant advantage is that developing countries

might determine the consultation members in international commerce for

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countries. This matter will not occur if the developing countries are not

under the system WTO

2.2. Resources Valuation

The experience of resource valuation is a process to calculate the

value of resources, both in the form of product and commodity of

environmental service in term of monetary. The valuation process is

conducted by various methodologies of monetary valuation to calculate

the value utility and non utility value from environmental and natural

resources.

Valuing the environmental and natural resources valuations is unlike

assessment of service and goods. Usually assessment from goods is

visible from price determined by market, where the process represents the

condition supply and demand. Environmental and natural resource, such

as forest and coastal area countable their values from the trading process

in the market. Unfortunately, the values only show the partial value of

natural and environment resources. Environmental and natural resources

basically produce more products and services than what traded in market

are. For example, forest resources generally are merely valued for their

wood, logarithm or plywood produced. For coral reef, values are upon the

captured fish. Presumably, it is due to the products are relatively easier

and traded in the market.

Meanwhile many matters are left uncared, that forest and coral reef are

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by erosion occurrence if the resources are not available. For instance,

forests prevent the floods by permeating water, while coral reef serves as

coastal prop from wave. In this case, potential expense obviated can be

considered the accepted benefit.

Two main procedures in valuation environmental expense and benefit

are:

1. Determining physical impacts and their relation,

2. Valuing the benefits and affects in term of monetary.

The first step is to determine the potential impact that may happen to

natural if there is ‘accident’ environmental. This procedure is usually

done by the experts of engineering and ecology. Meanwhile, the second

step is performed by using economic analysis approach which repeatedly

requires the proficiency of discounting cost and benefits for the future.

2.3. Economic valuation of natural Resources

Economic assessment is not representing independent ethics

assessment, like the following statement:

“Appropriate value for natural resources given for variety conservation

is possibly pushed by caring of moral or ethics. For example, it is pushed

by interest of others prosperity or other species. Caring moral and ethic

are, like feeling and choice could be translated as desire to protect the

biological variety” (Perrings Et al 1996 pp 829).

In comprehending natural value and environmental function, economic

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Value (NET). NET is divided into two parts, those are the assessment to

utility and the one to the non-use value (passive use).

Equation 1: Total Environmental and Economic Value

Use Value Passive or Non-use value

TEV = F( DUV, IUV, OV, QOV + BV, EV) TV = G(PV + TEV)

Non-anthropocentric

Instrumental value

Where :

TV = Total Environmental Value TEV = Total Economic Value

DUV = Direct use Value

IUV = Indirect Use Value

OV = Option Value

QOV = Quasi Option Value

BV = Bequest Value

PV = Primary Value

EV = Existence Value

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2.4. Modeling

In Order to support the basic strategy compilation of Indonesian

economic policy position on marine and fishery areas in the frame of

system of multilateral commerce – WTO, it is required simulation and

model functioned as sub-system models from economic model or

Indonesian economic development.

The model approach to be developed in this study is conducted with the

pattern of model development based on computer modeling, from simple

to the complex to support and be used as instrument (tools) in policy

analysis especially at basic strategy policy of Indonesian economic politic

position of marine and fishery areas, by calculating and analyzing the

policy mainly related closely to mathematic programming. Prediction

tendency and other instruments are linked to Analysis Instrument System.

Definition of the model refers to the definition that the model is a

simplification of the real situation found in the real world. The real and

complex events in the real life could be defined as a tern of event. In this

case, each definition in the real life is selected into procedure mechanisms

in an operation from a system where those mechanisms are parts of the

model.

Model is implemented to accomplish the complex problems of the

system that develop simplification and comparison from the real situation.

The pattern of modeling approach in this study is performed with the

approach pattern of Dynamic System Model or “Dynamic Modeling

(35)

responding a complex system to solve the economic, ecology and social

(36)

III.

RESEARCH METHODOLOGY

3.1. Location

This research conducted in Indonesian islands especially in the areas

which are potential for fish resources (Tuna and Shrimp) areas (Figure

1).

Figure 1. Study Area (Indonesia Map )

3.2. Research Materials and Tools

The data used in this study are:

1. Indonesian Aquaculture Statistic from Directorate General for

[image:36.595.117.491.248.537.2]

(37)

2. Statistical of Fishery Capture of Indonesia from Directorate

General of Fishery Capture, Ministry of Marine and Fisheries

Affairs

3. Stock Assessment form Fish Resources in Indonesian waters

(South China Seas, Sulawesi Seas, Banda Seas and Java Sea).

BRKP-DKP and P2O LIPI

4. Export Statistic of Fishery Products in 2002 from Directorate

General for Aqua Culture, Ministry of Marine Affairs and

Fisheries

5. Export Statistic of Fishery Products in 1999 from Directorate

Fisheries

6. Import Statistic of Fishery Products in 2002 from Directorate

Fisheries

7. Import Statistic of Fishery products in 1999 from Directorate

Fisheries

8. Digital map of Indonesian boundaries with scale 1 : (flexible

depend on needs) from Bakosurtannal

9. Digital map of Indonesian Fisheries with scale 1 : (flexible

depend on needs) from Ministry of Marine Affairs and Fisheries

In this research, supporting tools used, as the terms of software

(38)

1. Software

• Arcview 3.3

• I think Analyst Software Version 6.01 for Windows

• Microsoft Excel 2002

2. Hardware

• PC Pentium IV, 400 Mhz, RAM 256 MB

3.3. Logical Frame

In this study implementation will follow the logical framework such

[image:38.595.118.528.371.631.2]

as found in figure 2.

Figure 2. Logical Frame Work

In order to follow and make balance the various growths that

happened in multilateral commerce system in World Trade Organization,

(39)

products in global market. To reach this target, presumably Indonesia

need to determine the basic strategy of economic policy position of the

marine and fishery sector that can be the guidance in so different

multilateral commerce consultations. In determining the basic strategy of

this economic policy position, it is important to know various external

factors which are immeasurable, opportunity and threat, where study

focus will be emphasized on the agreements which have been agreed on

WTO related to fishery sector.

Besides, it also finds various resistances internal factors and

challenges owned and faced by fishery sector domestically, both in the

form of resource potency and supported infrastructure, and also in the

form of political policy peripheral in regulation and legislation.

[image:39.595.100.516.430.694.2]

(40)

In the implementation of fishery resources to economy, it needs the

existence of experienced effort resources valuation that can be an input

for decision making about economic development in fishery sector.

With the existence of this input, accordingly macro economic model

sector of marine and fishery in national can be compiled as an empirical

base for determining the position of economic policy of fishery sector in

global commerce. Through this model we can prepare various policy

scenarios to win the global market.

3.4. Legal Aspects

The Analysis conducted refers to three variables, those are (1) UU of

Fishery No. 31 Year 2004, (2) Agreements of World Commerce System

(World Trade Organization), (3) Resources of Indonesian marine and

fishery. The analysis focuses on 5 important pillars, (1) Policy pointing

to resources (resources, such as fish and others); (2) harvester; (3)

Industry managing fishery resources in framework of added value and

commerce (industry and trade); (4) Consumer (consumer); and (5)

Continuation of environment (environmental aspect / preservation).

Among the three variables placed on the existence of relation among

UU Republic of Indonesia, International Convention, effect the

regulation product to exploit and manage resources of marine and

fishery.

(41)

Since its basic assumption is ratified by WTO (Final Multilateral Act

Embodying the Results of the Uruguay Round of Trade Negotiations)

by Indonesia, Indonesia have bounded it self for the comply of the rule

in regime WTO such as: General Agreement on Trade and Tariff,

Agreement On the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary,

Agreement On Technical Barriers to Trade, and Agreement on

Safeguards. Compilation of legislation Product after ratification,

including of Fishery Regulation, should consider the basic principles of

WTO.

3.5. Modeling aspect

In order to support the basic compilation of Indonesia economic

policy position in the area of Marine and fishery in multilateral commerce

system frame, therefore a functioning model and simulation are required

as sub-system model from economic model of Indonesia.

The model approach to be developed in this study is conducted with

the pattern of model development based on the computer model compiled

from simple model up to complex one to support and to be used as tools

in policy analysis. By having calculation analysis, the policy especially in

the field of economy and other related components can be implemented

by Mathematic Programming. It is also possible to predict the tendencies

(42)

Methodologies are developed by utilizing dynamic system for

example:

- Identify the problems

- Develop explanation on problems themselves

- Design and develop; build the model of computer simulation in

solution from problems root.

- Conduct the study and try to form the model itself for

monitoring the behavior at the real life.

- Result from this model will be made as policy alternatives to

assist trouble-shooting.

- The result the alternative hopefully can be utilized as a support

in giving solution.

According to developer of dynamic system model (Jay W. Forrester),

explaining application developed with the system of dynamic model earn

the application into problems resolving, such as :

- Scheme and design the area of the effort

- Public policy and management

- Model of medicine and biology

- Environment and energy

- Social science and nature science development.

- Dynamic having the character of decision making.

- Complicated problems and the character of the non-linear

dynamic.

(43)

Figure 4. (Logical frame work for forming the model of Indonesian economic development in Marine and Fisheries (The Steps in System Analysis John Sterman, 2000)

Scheme and model development in this study are conducted by an

approach pattern drawn in Figure 4. They are also prepared with the

supported phases, such as :

1. Data collection, Various relevant information and data in this

study will be collected from various different sources to be used as

[image:43.595.135.517.70.436.2]

(44)

and finally determining the policy on economic position in

multilateral commerce.

2. Data Analysis, Data gathered will be analyzed based on to

requirement, particularly to equalize the consistent usher of the

obtained variables with optimal result. If needed, to some data

gathered adjustment are performed.

3.7. Developing Model

One of the important parts of this study is model development

representing moderation process from system of incoming effects on the

real life in which it can be analyzed easily. From this, various model

related to each variable influencing each other are visible. Later analysis

on how an influence happening in one particular variable in the case of

change from other variables is conducted.

The developed model will represent the network from various sub

models at fishery sector, where in this case the more focused one on

fishery resources becomes commodity in international trade especially

Tuna and Shrimp.

This model development will use software available to water down

the study execution process. Software to be used is Stella-I think and its

ability is reliable. This software is applicable to develop or build the

model, make the simulation in various scenarios and to estimate the

(45)

3.8. Implementation phase

In this study, several phases will be implemented as follows:

• Global commerce Literature study, fishery sector. This Phase is to

know various rationale and growth that happened in global commerce

area, and the other relevant with fishery sector.

• Macro Economic data collecting, this Phase is aimed to observing

various relevant macro economic data with the resource of Indonesian

fishery traded in global market, especially from export and import

side.

• Data collecting of fishery resources (Tuna and Shrimp) are necessary

to complete various variables from developed model, to see related

usher to the variable.

• Valuation of fishery resources (Tuna and Shrimp) to assign monetary.

• Basic model development using Modeling builder represents the

phases to chain the related variables.

• Multilateral commerce variable formulation represents the phase in

various low aspects toward International Global Trade in fish

resources (Tuna and Shrimp).

• Evaluation model

• The time of entire models formed have real correction; model has

earned better operation.

• Determination of Scenario

• Analyze the result of simulation

(46)

• Write the report of the analysis result.

(47)

IV.

RESULT AND DISCUSSION

The goals and target of this research are to develop the frame of Model in the

structure with two (2) subs Model:

1. Sub Model of the fishery resources divided into Tuna and Shrimps

2. Sub Model in the macro economy divided into sub Export and import

where they are combined in International Trade. The Aspect of those matters is

legal aspect (The Act of Fisheries and World Trade Organization agreement).

4.1. The Legal Aspect Perspective

Free trade emphasizes more on freedom in goods current and services.

In the case of marine and fishery products, emulation in open commerce

makes two product levels; those are raw material products such as fresh

fish and frozen fish, and product of process, such as canned fish. The raw

material sectors, emulation happened in the context of comparability

excellence. Nations with high raw material potency tend to exceed their

roles as fresh fish or frozen fish supplier. A problem is that fish resources

are not only limited to territorial sea, but also free seas, outside exclusive

economic zone. If fisherman’ ship captures in free sea water, hence

captured products can only be claimed as coming pertinent ship Flag

State. In this context, Indonesia can give facility to the fisherman’ ship to

(48)

Unfortunately, in international context of this case, it has not yet been

obtained certain arrangement. Until this article is made, facilitation trade

is not yet agreed in the negotiation of Word Trade Organization (WTO).

If Indonesia can give facility to fisherman’s ship of this free sea water, it

is not impossible that Indonesia get benefits from this activity, at least

from the sector of marine product collection and labor port.

However, the more important thing is how to give emphasize on

fishery policy in Indonesia. The policy should be put down to manage

available excellence, whether that of comparability or competitiveness. If

it is realized that excellence is more dominant on comparability than the

excellence of competitive, hence policy direction has to emphasize more

on how to manage comparability excellence in the form of properties of

fish resources and others. It is later aimed at making added value. It

means that Indonesia have to conduct efforts to be properties so that the

resources can be turned into economic potency in the form of processing

products having the high competitiveness.

In this context, policy of Indonesian fishery is aimed at accomplishing

international standards, such as agreed on pursuant to Agreement

Application Sanitary Phytosanitary and The Agreement on Technical

Barriers Trade, and Agreement of Safeguards. In meeting international

standard, product competitiveness of Indonesian fishery process in the

global market will progressively increase. In Article 3 sentence (2)

Agreement on Application Sanitary Phytosanitary, it is expressed that

“Sanitary or phytosanitary measurement which confirm to international

(49)

human being, animal or plant life or health, and is presumed to be

consistent with the relevant provisions of GATT Agreement 1994”.

When the Law of the Republic of Indonesia (UU) of Fishery

emphasizes more on resources protection of small harvesters,

consequently effort to do is how small harvesters can fulfill such

international standard. In this context, the synergy among the persons

responsible for this effort or small farming fishermen becomes relevant. It

means that the same activities between small fisherman and processing

fish industry become one of alternatives to improve comparability

excellence become competitive excellences. Hopefully small fishermen

become suppliers for fish processing industry to fulfill capture standard or

marine culture agreed or determined by the stakeholders. The

Government can give facilities related to agreements with this matter.

It is necessary realize that the system of free access to market adopt

beneficial WTO agreements to have advance technology and capital.

They relatively fulfill standards specified by state members of WTO and

international standard, for technical standard and standard in frame of

sanitary and of Phytosanitary. If it is hoped that Indonesia exceed the

negotiation to area commerce of fishery products, thus beforehand

Indonesia have to strive accomplishment of international standards which

are applied in the members of WTO.

(50)

4.2. Modeling Base Development