Company Note
Matahari Department Store
Bloomberg: LPPF.IJ | Reuters: LPPF.JK
Samuel Equity Research
11 January 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Y/E De c (Rp bn) 2013A 2014A 2015E 2016F 2017F 2018F
Revenue 6,753 7,926 9,006 10,908 11,925 13,270 EBITDA 3,308 3,718 3,957 4,290 4,930 5,899 Net prof it 1,147 1,448 1,772 2,131 2,440 2,760 EPS (Rp) 496 607 730 836 946 983 EBITDA margin (%) 28% 28% 27% 25% 25% 26% BV/Share (Rp) -268 55 379 747 1166 1639 PBV (x) -58 287 41 21 13 10
Dividend per Share (1) 158 292 365 418 473 EV/EBITDA 14 11.9 11.0 10.1 8.7 7.1
Dividend Yield (%) 1.0% 1.9% 2.4% 2.8% 3.1% 3.2%
P/E (x) 31.6 25.8 21.5 18.7 16.6 15.9
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp15,675 per share)
New Year, New Optimism!
Meskipun harga saham LPPF pada tahun 2016 lalu sempat turun
sebanyak 61% dari harga tertingginya, namun pada tahun ini kami
menyimpan
sejumlah
optimisme.
Diawali
dengan
optimisme
membaiknya kinerja 4Q16 seiring usaha manajemen untuk lebih fokus
pada segmen Direct Purchase yang mendatangkan marjin lebih tinggi,
stabilnya inflasi sampai dengan Desember ’16 kemarin, dan ekspektasi
peningkatan daya beli (bullishnya harga komoditas), turut menjadi
sentimen positif untuk prospek kinerja LPPF pada tahun 2017.
Didukung oleh masih berlanjutnya ekspansi pembukaan gerai
– gerai
baru
serta
mulai
meredanya
kekhawatiran
investor,
kami
merekomendasikan BUY dengan TP Rp 19,500/lembar saham, 17E’PE:
20.6x, dan PBV: 16.7x.
Melanjutkan optimisme dengan beberapa sentimen positif. Kami tetap
memproyeksikan kinerja positif untuk LPPF, terutama dengan dorongan
mulai berkurangnya kekhawatiran para investor menyangkut investasi
tambahan pada Mataharimall.com pada bulan November 2016 lalu. Sebagai
kilas balik, LPPF berencana untuk menyuntikkan dana dengan total sebesar
Rp590 miliar yang dilakukan secara bertahap sampai dengan 3Q17, untuk
meningkatkan kepemilikan sebesar 19% (sebelumnya: 9.5%), dan
menghindari dilusi kepemilikan setelah masuknya investasi dari Mitsui.
Meskipun kami melihat kesuksesan bisnis e-Commerce hanya mampu
terlihat dalam kurun waktu jangka panjang, namun giatnya manajemen untuk
fokus pada segmen Direct Purchase (yang notabene memberikan marjin
yang lebih kuat dan strong brand recognition), meyakinkan kami akan
kondisi neraca keuangan dan likuiditas masih mampu tersokong.
Ekspansi toko yang masih on track. Tahun ini, LPPF merencanakan untuk
membuka 6 - 8 gerai baru, dengan mayoritas pembukaan gerai baru tersebut
masih berada di Jawa (Jawa: 35.1%, vs. Luar Jawa: 49.1%, vs.
Jabodetabek: 15.8%). Dengan ekspektasi terhadap membaiknya daya beli
(salah satu penyebabnya adalah bullishnya harga komoditas), kami
memprediksi SSSG pada tahun ini sebesar 7.5.% (‘16E: 6.5% ).
Valuasi dan Rekomendasi: Kami masih optimis kinerja LPPF lebih baik
pada tahun ini, seiring dengan mulai meredanya kekhawatiran para investor
terutama menyangkut investasi tambahan pada lini bisnis e-Commerce,
menyusul harga saham yang mulai naik sebesar 16.5%. Secara historis,
LPPF diperdagangkan pada 5-years PE sebesar 22.6x, sedangkan pada
saat ini, LPPF hanya diperdagangkan dengan PE sebesar 16.6x. BUY.
Target Price Rp 19,500 Last Price Rp 15,675 Potential Upside 24% JCI Index 5,315 Share isued (bn) 2.92 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 45.4 52-Weeks High/Low 14,500/22575
Avg Daily Vol (m n) 6.51
Free Float 44.4%
Nom inal Value Rp 1,000
Book value/share ‘17 Rp1,166
Relative to JCI Chart
Com pany Background
Shareholder Structure
Multipolar Tbk 20.5%
Capital Group Company 6.5%
Fil LTD 3.1%
Blackrock 2.2%
T Row e Price Associates 2.1% Ameriprise Fin Group 1.7% Morgan Stanley Investment Inc 1.0%
Public 62.7%
BUY (Maintain)
PT Matahari Department Store Tbk memiliki bisnis ritel yang terbagi dalam beberapa jenis produk seperti baju, aksesoris, tas, sepatu, kosmetik, peralatan rumah tangga, dan merupakan operator terbesar dalam segmen Department Store di Indonesia
80 100 120
May-16 Jul-16 Sep-16 Nov-16
JCI LPPF
Marlene Tanumihardja
+62 21 2854 8387
Matahari Department Store
LPPF.IJ | LPPF.JK
www.samuel.co.id
Page 2 of 5
Figure 1. Sales Performance and SSSG
Source : Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. PE Band
Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research
Figure 3. Sector Valuation
Source : Bloomberg, Company, SSI Research
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0% -2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000 14,000 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016F 2017F 2018F R p B n SSSG Sales 12 17 22 27 32
Jan-13 Jul-13 Jan-14 Jul-14 Jan-15 Jul-15 Jan-16 Jul-16 Jan-17
Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1
PER - Roll ST dev +2 ST dev -2
Last
Target
Market Cap
P/E
PEG
EV/EBITD
A
ROE (%)
EPS
CAGR (%)
Price (Rp) Price (Rp)
(Rpbn)
17E
17E
17E
17E
16E-19E
RALS
BUY
1,225
1,565
8,799
18.8
0.3
10.8
12.6
28.1
MAPI
BUY
5,300
6,700
7,968
24.9
0.2
6.6
9.0
74.0
ACES
BUY
800
1,000
14,578
21.8
1.5
15.4
19.1
11.1
LPPF
BUY
15,675
21,300
44,354
16.6
0.4
8.7
72.0
12.1
Sector Average
20.5
0.6
10.4
28.2
31.3
Company
Rec
Matahari Department Store
LPPF.IJ | LPPF.JK
www.samuel.co.id
Page 3 of 5
Figure 4. Store Layout
Matahari Department Store
LPPF.IJ | LPPF.JK
www.samuel.co.id
Page 4 of 5
Key Financials
Profit and Loss
Cash Flow
Rp bn
15A
16E
17E
18E
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
Revenue
9,006
10,908
11,925
13,270
Net income
1,772
2,131
2,440
2,760
COGS
(3,336)
(4,050)
(4,304)
(4,573)
Depreciation & amort.
206
(210)
(2)
(3)
Gross profit
5,670
6,858
7,621
8,697
Others
52
27
75
16
Gross margin (%)
63%
63%
64%
66%
Working capital
(127)
160
22
83
Operating profit
2,329
2,684
3,012
3,407
Operating cash flow
1,902
2,108
2,534
2,857
Operating margin (%)
26%
25%
25%
26%
Net - Capital expenditure
(358)
(501)
(934)
(510)
EBITDA
2,569
2,966
3,308
3,718
Investing cash flow
(529)
(1,005)
(928)
(506)
EBITDA margin (%)
29%
27%
28%
28%
Net - Borrowings
(410)
0
0
0
Other income (expenses)
0
(150)
0
0
Other financing
(839)
(983)
(1,175)
(1,329)
Pre-tax profit
2,236
2,478
2,835
3,249
Financing cash flow
(1,249)
(983)
(1,175)
(1,329)
Income tax - net
(464)
(348)
(395)
(488)
Net - Cash flow
124
119
432
1,023
Net profit
1,772
2,131
2,440
2,760
Cash at beginning
786
947
1,066
1,498
Net profit margin (%)
20%
20%
20%
21%
Cash at ending
947
1,066
1,498
2,520
Balance Sheet
Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn)
15A
16E
17E
18E
Cash & ST Investment
938
1,066
1,498
2,520
ROE (%)
160%
98%
72%
58%
Receivables
76
119
120
136
ROA (%)
46%
38%
35%
32%
Inventories
1,008
1,284
1,333
1,433
Revenue growth (%)
14%
21%
9%
11%
Others
242
297
325
382
EBITDA growth (%)
10%
15%
12%
12%
Total current assets
2,264
2,766
3,275
4,471
EPS growth (%)
22%
20%
15%
13%
Net fixed assets
877
1,587
2,524
3,037
Interest coverage (x)
0.0
0.0
1.0
2.0
Other assets
739
1,242
1,235
1,231
Debt to equity (%)
0
0
0
0
Total assets
3,879
5,596
7,035
8,738
Net gearing (%)
-86
-49
-44
-53
Payables
1,704
2,069
2,199
2,336
ST. debt and curr. maturity
0
0
0
0
Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities
735
931
975
1,110
15A
16E
17E
18E
LT Bank Loans
0
0
0
0
SSSG (%)
5.8
6.5
7.5
8.5
Other long term liabilities
334
416
460
512
Average Store Size (sqm)
6,287
6,385
6,383
6,336
Total liabilities
2,773
3,415
3,634
3,958
Productivity/sqm (Rp Bn)
18
19
19
20
Matahari Department Store
www.samuel.co.id
Page 5 of 5
Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research,Strategy, Banking, Consumer
andy.ferdinand@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8148 Rangga Cipta Economist rangga.cipta@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8396 Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst makky.dandytra@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8382 Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property
akhmad.nurcahyadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility arandi.ariantara@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8392 Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps marlene@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8387 Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation sharlita.malik@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8339 Adde Chandra Kurniawan Research Associate adde.kurniawan@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM /
Head of Institutional Marketing
evelyn.satyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor m.alfatih@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8129 Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales ronny.ardianto@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8399 Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales clarice.wijana@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8395 Wahyudi Budiono Dealer wahyudi.budiyono@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8152
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Siwah Long Head of Equities kelvin.long@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8150 Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales yulianah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8146 Indra S. Affandi Institutional Equity Sales indra.siswandi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8334 Lucia Irawati Head of Retail Equity Sales lucia.irawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8173 Ferry Khusaeri Equity Sales ferry.khusaeri@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8304 Iwan Setiadi Equity Sales iwan.setiadi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8313 Lia Chaterina Equity Sales liachaterina@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8315 Amelia Sintama Equity Sales amelia@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8308 Salt World Widjaja Equity Sales salt@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8163 Jovita Widjaja Equity Sales jovita.widjaja@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8314 James Wihardja Equity Sales james.wihardja@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8397 Joseph Soegandhi Equity Sales joseph.soegandhi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8872 Dian Anggraeni Equity Sales dian.anggraeni@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8301 Sylviawati Equity Sales sylviawati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8112 Verawati Gunawan Equity Sales verawati.gunawan@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8312 Cenni Liawisusi Equity Sales cenni.liawisusi@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8303 Frans Ferdiansah Equity Sales frans.ferdiansah@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8337 Muhamad Faisyal Dealer m.faisal@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8155 Wulan Budi Setyowati Dealer wulan.setyowati@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8369 Bismar Ferryaman Dealer bismar.ferryaman@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8368
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head Of Marketing OLT nugroho@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8372 Wahyu Widodo Marketing wahyu.widodo@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8371 Rina Lestari Customer Service rina.lestari@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8180 Martha Lamtiurma Tampubolon Customer Service martha.lamtiurma@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8182 Mohamad Andhika Prasetia Customer Service andhika@samuel.co.id +6221 2854 8183 DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
