Perilaku tabungan masyarakat antar daerah menurut Tipologi Klasen dan penghasil Migas di Indonesia, 1990-2000.

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PERILAKU TABUNGAN MASYARAKAT ANTAR DAERAH MENURUT TIPOLOGI KLASEN DAN PENGHASIL MIGAS •

DI INDONESIA, 1990-2000

Intisari

Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk menganalisis pengaruh produk domestik regional bruto, tingkat suku bunga riil, angka beban tanggungan usia muda dan tua, dan laju inflasi terhadap tabungan masyarakat antar daerah di Indonesia. Penelitian ini juga bertujuan untuk melihat apakah ada perbedaan perilaku tabungan masyarakat antar daerah di Indonesia. Alat analisis yang digunakan dalam penelitian ini adalah panel data yang menggabungkan data cross section _{dengan data}time series.

Hasil estimasi memperlihatkan bahwa produk domestik regional bruto memiliki tanda sesuai yang diharapkan dan signifikan. Tingkat suku bunga riil berpengaruh positif terhadap tabungan masyarakat. Angka beban tanggungan usia muda memperlihatkan tanda negatif yang berarti bahwa mempunyai pengaruh negatif terhadap tabungan masyarakat. Tetapi beban tanggungan usia tua justru berpengaruh positif terhadap tabungan masyarakat. Laju inflasi ditemukan berdampak positif terhadap tabungan masyarakat.

Dengan mengklasifikasikan 26 propinsi ke dalam empat wilayah –yaitu daerah MT, M, B, dan KB—yang berdasarkan pertumbuhan ekonomi tiap-tiap propinsi, maka dapat dianalisis mengenai perbedaan perilaku tabungan masyarakat antar daerah. Berdasarkan hasil estimasi maka dapat disimpulkan bahwa terjadi perbedaan perilaku tabungan masyarakat antar daerah di Indonesia.

Kata kunci: tabungan masyarakat, tingkat suku bunga, beban tanggungan, produk domestik regional bruto, laju inflasi

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PRIVATE SAVING BEHAVIOUR INTER REGION

WITH KLASSEN TYPOLOGI AND OIL AND GAS PRODUCER IN INDONESIA, 1990-2000

Abstract

This research is aimed to analyze the effects of gross domestic regional product, real interest rate, young and old dependency ratio, and inflation on private saving among the region in Indonesia. Beside that, this research is aimed to see is there any difference in private saving behaviour between region in Indonesia. This study is using panel data analyze which combining cross section and time series data set.

The estimation results showed that gross domestic regional product might be line with our expectation and significant. The real interest rate has positive effects on private saving. Young dependency ratio showed negative sign, it means young dependency ratio has negative effects on private saving. But, old dependency ratio has positive effect on private saving. Inflation have positive effect too on private saving.

Classifying twenty-six regions into four areas –MT, M, B, and KB—we characterized the pattern of regional economic growth, then we can analyze about differences private saving behaviour between region. From estimation result we can conclude that there was been difference private saving behaviour between regions in Indonesia.

Keywords : private saving, interest rate, dependency ratio, gross domestic regional. product, inflation

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