Banking Cement Consumer Staples Coal Construction Media Plantation Property Retail Telecommunication Tobacco

(1)

SMART MONEY

November 2018

By:

Evan Lie Hadiwidjaja

(2)

BANKING SECTOR

Heat Map

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Degree of changes in ownership

+

-

Notes:

PF = Pension Fund

MF = Mutual Fund

IS = Insurance

IB = Investment Banking

Monthly Changes (%)

Local PF

Local MF

Local IS

Local IB

Foreign PF

Foreign MF

Foreign IS

Foreign IB

Banking

Cement

Consumer Staples

Coal

Construction

Media

Plantation

Property

Retail

(3)

BANKING SECTOR

Banking Sector

Average foreign ownership in the banking sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

In Nov-18, foreign ownership in banking sector showed the first uptick YTD as market sees global policy rate nears neutral

zone. Meanwhile, outcomes from U.S. Mid-term election, DNDF implementation, and non-consensus policy rate hike in

Nov-18 also raised the outlook for the sector.

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

74.8%74.7% 75.6%75.4%_75.1%

74.1%74.2%74.6% 76.3%

77.7%78.1% 79.1%_78.8%

77.8% 78.5%78.5%78.9%

79.5%79.8%80.1%79.5% 78.6%

% Foreign Ownership

4.6% 4.6%4.9%

Average of % local PF

8.3% 8.3%

Average of % local MF

21.0%20.9%21.1%20.8%20.8%20.6%20.5%20.8%20.9%20.7%20.7%21.2%21.9%22.3% 22.6%23.2%23.8%

24.6%25.0%25.0%25.4%25.3%25.6% 26.3%27.5%

28.1%29.1%28.9%28.8%29.4%29.3%29.4%29.4% 30.0%29.8%29.7%

29.0%28.6%_28.2%27.7%

26.9%27.2%27.0%27.0%27.3%

(4)

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Strong accumulation from foreign funds following the positive news on the industry consolidation between SMGR and SMCB.

3Q18 results also showed better performance derived from ASP hikes and lower energy prices, especially oil and coal prices.

BANKING SECTOR

Cement Sector

Average foreign ownership in the cement sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

77.4%77.8%77.6%77.9%77.7%77.4%77.5%77.3%77.1% 76.9%76.6%76.8%77.4%

77.9%77.6%77.8% 79.3%

83.9%83.6%

85.2%84.9%85.0%85.0%85.6%85.5%85.4% 85.9%86.3%85.8%85.8%

85.2%85.7%85.5%85.5%

86.2%86.1%86.3%86.3%86.4%86.1%86.0% 84.3%84.0%_83.7%84.2%

70.0%

% Foreign Ownership

5.5%

3.9%

16.2%16.5%

18.0%18.9%19.0%18.8%18.4%18.7%18.7%18.5%18.4%18.2%18.2%18.2%18.4%18.3%18.8%

19.2%_18.8%19.2%19.4%19.6%19.8%20.1%19.8%19.6%20.0% 20.4%

19.6%19.8%19.5%19.9%20.0%20.1%20.3%

20.6%20.9%20.9%20.7%21.5%21.4%20.7%20.4% 19.2%_18.8%

0.0%

(5)

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

As positive sentiment from Rupiah slightly net off outflow from IDX free float adjustment, we see minimal movement on the

ownership changes.

BANKING SECTOR

Consumer Staples Sector

Average foreign ownership in the consumer staples sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

63.6%62.6%

61.8%61.3%60.9%_{60.1%60.3%60.4%60.2%60.0%59.8%60.1%59.6%59.7%59.7%60.2%}61.1%62.0%62.0% 59.0%

57.6%

55.6%55.2%54.7%54.4%54.2%55.5%54.2%54.3%54.0%_{53.6%53.9%53.8%53.7%53.9%53.4%53.5%52.8%52.3%51.8%51.7%52.2%52.6%52.3%52.7%}

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

% Foreign Ownership

4.0%

4.4% 4.5%4.5% 4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.6%4.5% 4.4% 4.3%_{4.2% 4.2%} 4.0%

3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3%

3.8% 4.2%

4.6%4.7% 5.1% 5.2%5.4% 5.3%

5.8%

6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%6.7% 6.9%7.1%

7.5%7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% 7.9%

7.8% 7.7% 7.5%

7.2%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

7.9%8.1% 8.8%9.1% 9.3%

9.9% 9.8%

9.5% 9.5% 9.7%9.9% 9.9%10.0% 10.1%10.3%_9.9%

9.1% 8.6%

8.3% 9.7%10.2%

11.0%11.1%

10.8%10.6%10.5%10.6%10.6% 10.2%10.6%

10.9%10.9%10.7%_10.6%

10.2%10.2%10.5%10.6%10.8%10.8%10.8%10.7%10.6%10.8%10.5%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

12.8% 12.5%12.3%12.1%

11.5%

11.0%10.9%11.0%11.3%11.2%11.3%

11.6%_11.4%11.5%11.6%11.7%12.0%12.1%11.8% 12.5%

12.1%11.9%

11.7%11.5%11.4%11.5%11.8%11.8%11.9%11.9%11.7%

11.3%11.4%11.5%11.3%11.2% 10.9%10.9%

10.5%10.4%10.2% 10.0%10.0%10.0%10.2%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

(6)

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Significant drop from local MF as market confidence began to wear off on the industry outlook as China recently limit coal

import for the rest of the year, inventory in

China’s

coal power plants were recorded close to a record high and pricing

divergence between the high CV and low CV coal price.

BANKING SECTOR

Coal Sector

Average foreign ownership in the coal sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

45.7%45.7%45.1%45.1%45.4%46.2%46.1%_45.3% 44.2%

43.0%43.2%44.1%_42.6%41.9% 40.9%_{40.0%40.5%40.3%}

38.2% 35.1%35.7%35.3%34.7%

33.4%33.8%33.5%34.0%34.3%34.6%35.0%34.0%35.0%34.7%34.7%35.5%

37.0%36.8%36.5%37.2%37.6%39.4%38.9%38.6%38.9%38.7%

0.0%

% Foreign Ownership

5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%5.4%

3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%

11.1%11.1%11.6%11.8%11.8% 12.5%12.4% 11.7%12.0%12.2%

12.7%13.3%13.1%13.1%13.2%

0.0%

(7)

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Foreign ownership continues to decline amidst lower than expected YTD new contract achievement, however the sector has

rallied as concerns on rising rates has eased and valuation was and still is undemanding.

BANKING SECTOR

Construction Sector

Average foreign ownership in the construction sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

32.5%33.4%32.1%31.8%33.4%32.5% 34.8%

36.7%37.1% 35.8%

37.4%37.8%38.5%39.0%37.6%38.7% 41.2%42.6%

39.4%39.0%

37.8%37.2%_36.5%36.9%38.1%38.9%

40.3%40.2%40.0%39.7%39.8%41.3%40.7%39.5%40.4%40.2%_38.7%38.3% 37.7%

% Foreign Ownership

7.0%

10.1%10.4%10.5%10.4%10.1%10.0%10.0%10.1%10.2%10.1% 9.8% 9.9%

9.5% 9.5%9.7% 10.1%10.3%

10.7%10.7%10.6%10.6%10.6%10.6%

25.8%_25.3%26.1%

24.6%25.1%25.0%25.2%24.9%24.9%24.8%25.3%24.3% 23.7%24.6%24.2%23.8%

21.8%

19.8%19.4%19.3%19.1%19.7%20.0% 18.3%

17.4%18.0%_{17.2%16.8%16.7%} 15.2%

9.8% 9.8%

8.9%_8.6%9.1% 8.9%9.5% 10.7%11.0%10.5%

12.1%12.2%12.2%12.2%

12.4%12.7%_{12.4%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.4%12.4%} 12.0%12.2%

12.7%12.7%12.9% 13.4%13.6%_13.2%13.0%

12.7%13.0%13.0%12.6% 12.3%12.3%12.3%

(8)

Slight increase in foreign ownership as 3Q18 earnings show better result for SCMA driven by Asian Games and higher

audience share rating. Moreover, we see IDR appreciation as well as political year ahead to give slight positive sentiment

toward the sector.

BANKING SECTOR

Media Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the media sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

30.1%

30.4%30.5% 30.2%30.4%

30.6% 31.1%

31.4% 32.0%

32.3%32.4% 33.5%

33.2%

32.4%32.4%32.3%32.5%32.4%32.4%32.6%32.5%32.5% 32.8%32.9%

33.3% 33.8%

33.2% 32.9%32.9%

32.5%32.7% 33.5%

32.8%33.0%_32.7% 32.2%

% Foreign Ownership

0.5%

2.6%_2.5%

9.4%

9.9%10.1%10.2%10.0%9.9%

9.6% 9.6% 9.7% 9.6%_9.3%

(9)

No significant movement as investors are still waiting for more clarity on the B20 implementation since September 2018.

Moreover, CPO price remains flat and there is no significant catalyst to lift up price in the near term.

BANKING SECTOR

Plantation Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the plantation sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

44.3%45.2%_43.6% 41.3%42.1%42.3%41.5%

44.1% 42.9%_41.9%42.0%44.0%

45.5%44.7% 42.2%

37.1%37.0% 35.2%

33.9%33.7%34.4%34.6%34.4%34.7%35.1%34.3% 36.5%36.4%36.9%35.8%

35.0%36.0%36.5%36.2%35.9%37.0%37.0%37.2%36.6%36.4%36.4%35.5% 34.5%34.2%33.7%

% Foreign Ownership

12.6%12.9%12.5%12.6%12.6%12.9%12.8%

11.7%11.5%11.6%11.5%11.4%11.2%11.2%11.7% 12.4%12.4%12.5%

12.4% 11.1%

13.6% 16.8%

15.2% 13.4%14.2%

13.0% 12.5%_12.2%12.1%

9.9%_{9.6% 9.5%}

10.3%10.8% 11.7%

11.9% 11.4%11.4%11.1%

12.2%12.2%

11.5%11.8%

12.4%12.7%12.9%12.3%12.3% 11.8%12.3%12.3%

12.6%12.6%12.5%13.0%13.0%12.9%13.2% 13.3%13.6%

14.1%14.0%14.1%13.9% 13.0%12.7%12.7%12.5%

0.0%

(10)

Gradual accumulation from local MF as recent appreciation in IDR paired with property tax relaxation gives positive

sentiment toward the sector.

BANKING SECTOR

Property Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the property sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

46.9%47.3%46.3%47.3%46.9%46.6%46.6%46.9%46.3%46.4%46.3%46.9%47.9%48.1%47.8%47.7%48.8%49.4%48.9%49.3%48.7%48.8%47.5%47.9%48.3%49.1%49.8% 44.5%

42.3%42.2%41.7% 40.0%

38.8%

35.0%35.2%34.9%34.7%34.7%34.6%34.3%34.3%34.3%34.2%33.8%34.1%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

% Foreign Ownership

2.1% 2.1% 2.1%2.2% 2.2%

2.3%2.4%2.3% 2.3%_{2.3% 2.3% 2.3%} 2.1% 2.0%

1.9% 1.8%

1.7% 1.7% 1.9%

2.1% 2.3%

2.2%2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%2.2%

2.2%2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%2.3% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2%2.2%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

7.9%8.1% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4%

8.2% 8.0% 8.0%

8.5% 8.6% 8.4% 7.8%

7.5% 7.6% 8.0%8.3%

7.3% 6.5% 6.4%

5.8% 5.9% 5.4%

6.0%_5.8% 5.2%

4.8%

4.3% 4.2%4.1% 4.3%4.4%_{4.0% 3.9%}4.4% 4.5%

4.8% 5.0%5.0% 4.9%5.2%4.9% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%5.0%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

9.4% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%

8.3% 8.1% 8.2%8.0% 8.1% 8.0%8.2% 8.3% 8.5% 8.5%9.0%

9.9%10.3%9.8% 9.7%

9.4% 9.4% 9.6%9.8% 9.9%

10.2%10.4%10.5%10.4%10.3%10.2%10.3%10.2%

10.1%10.1%9.9% 9.9%10.0%9.9%10.0%10.0%9.9%_{9.8% 9.6% 9.7%}

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

(11)

RETAIL SECTOR

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

We notice a battle between foreign and local investors as Q3 earnings showed sales figures for some retailers remain strong

and earnings beat projections. To add, recent IDR appreciation gave a relief for retailers with high import composition.

BANKING SECTOR

Retail Sector

Average foreign ownership in the retail sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

67.0% 67.7%_67.5%67.8%68.0%

68.3%_68.1% 67.3%

67.0%67.4%67.3% 65.8%66.1%

65.4% 62.8%63.2%

61.9%61.7%61.7% 62.6%_62.3%62.8%

64.7% 64.9%65.2%

65.7%

% Foreign Ownership

1.1%1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1%

4.6%

23.9%

23.3%23.0%23.3%23.5%23.7%23.4%23.3%24.2%

24.9%25.1%25.5%25.2%25.0%25.9%26.4%26.4%27.2%

27.8%28.7%29.2%29.1%29.1%29.0%

29.4%29.3%29.6%29.9%30.0%29.9%_{29.4%29.3%28.8%28.8%}30.2%30.5%30.4% 31.0%

(12)

TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Slight increase in foreign ownership whereby latest earnings results from TLKM shows recovery from tariff hike, though

concerns on

EXCL’s

and

ISAT’s

decision to remain aggressive grabbing market share still remain.

BANKING SECTOR

Telecommunication Sector

Average foreign ownership in the telecommunication sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

86.0%86.1%85.9%86.5%86.5%87.0%86.8%86.7%86.3%86.0%85.8%86.9%86.6%86.6% 84.3%84.7%

85.5%

84.3%_84.0% 83.2%

% Foreign Ownership

2.3%

4.7%

22.6% 21.9%21.9%

21.6%21.7% 22.0%

21.7% 22.0%

22.5%22.6% 22.7% 25.4%25.6%

24.9%25.1% 25.2%

24.7% 24.2%

23.5%23.5% 23.0%

23.5%23.7% 24.0%

24.8%

23.7%23.9% 24.1%

(13)

TOBACCO SECTOR

Battle between foreign and local as announcement on the implementation of JCI free float methodology causes concern on

the stocks but government decision to keep excise tax steady gives positive sentiment to the sector.

BANKING SECTOR

Tobacco Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the tobacco sector

_{Average local mutual fund ownership}

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

69.1%69.3%68.6%68.0%68.0%68.2%68.5%

62.9%64.5%64.5%63.6%63.4%_{61.8%62.0%63.0%}64.1%66.6%66.5%66.0%65.6%64.5%

55.4%55.2%54.4%54.9%54.7%56.1%55.9%56.0%55.1%53.7%_{53.1%54.0%53.4%53.4%} 51.6%

49.9%_48.5%

47.0%45.9%45.5%45.7%46.0%46.1%48.1%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

% Foreign Ownership

1.7%

1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 3.1%

3.0% 3.0%3.2%3.0%3.0% 3.0%_2.9%3.0%

2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%3.0% 3.4%3.5%

3.6%_3.5%3.7%3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5%3.6%

3.7%3.8% 4.0% 4.0%

4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.2% 4.1% 4.0% 3.9%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

10.5%10.8%10.5%11.2% 11.7%11.5%11.5%

16.5% 16.0%16.3%

16.9% 17.9%18.3%18.2%17.6%

16.7% 14.6%14.4%

13.1%12.8% 14.0%

15.8%15.8%15.8%_15.4%15.2% 14.4%14.2%

13.5%13.7% 14.8%

15.8%15.9%16.4%16.5% 18.3%

19.5% 20.4%

21.3%21.7%22.0%22.1%21.8%21.5% 20.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

13.8%13.8%13.8%14.1%14.2%14.1%13.7% 21.3%21.2%

20.6% 19.8%

21.8% 20.3%

19.8%20.3%

20.8%21.5%21.5%21.7%21.6%21.7%20.4%20.4%_20.0%20.5%20.4%20.7%21.3%21.5%

21.9%21.8%21.5%21.6%21.5%21.4%21.8% 20.6%

19.5% 18.6%

17.9%18.0%18.6%18.6%18.4%18.8%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

(14)

INDEX MEMBERS

Sector

Members

Banking

BBRI, BBNI, BMRI, BBCA, BBTN

Cement

INTP, SMGR

Consumer Staples

UNVR, INDF, ICBP, MYOR, KLBF, ROTI

Coal

ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, HRUM, UNTR, DOID

Construction

PTPP, ADHI, WIKA, WSKT

Media

SCMA, MNCN

Plantation

AALI, LSIP

Property

BSDE, SMRA, ASRI, CTRA, PWON

Retail

ACES, MAPI, LPPF, RALS

Telecommunication

TLKM, EXCL

Tobacco

HMSP, GGRM

BANKING SECTOR

(15)

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