PELUANG DAN TANTANGAN
PELAKU USAHA
MENGHADAPI AEC 2015
Oleh: P. Agung Pambudhi
Direktur Eksekutif DPN APINDO
Seminar
Sekolah Tinggi Ilmu Administrasi Mandala Indonesia
Jakarta, 22 Maret 2014
ASEAN ECONOMIC COMMUNITY
• Bali Summit Oktober 2003: Visi ASEAN 2020 untuk
Integrasi Ekonomi Agustus 2006 kesepakatan
penyusunan AEC Blue-Print November 2007
penandatanganan AEC Blue-Print
• Tahun 2015 : mulai berlaku transformasi ASEAN menjadi
kawasan Pasar Tunggal dan Basis Produksi dengan
pergerakan bebas barang, jasa, tenaga kerja trampil, dan
modal
• Akselerasi Integrasi Kamboja, Laos, Myanmar, Vietnam
Karakteristik AEC:
(a) “a single market and production base”,
(b) “a highly competitive economic region”,
(c) “a region of equitable economic development”,
and
(d) “a region fully integrated into the global
economy”.
Strengths
Weaknesses
• Market of 600 mn people; total GDP 2.1 trillion
US$
• Availability of natural resource
• Integrated production base/networks
• Geographical proximity to other regions
• Low wages and relatively high
• human development indicators
• Progressive liberalization policies
• Development gap among members
• Risk of falling into ‘middle income trap’
• Slow progress in domestic reforms
• Low utilization rate of preferential measures by
the private sector due to lack of incentives
provided by the government
• Aging population
• Poor governance
• Weak institutional capacity
• Insurgency in member countries — Thailand,
Myanmar
Opportunities
Threats
• Momentum in Regional economic integration
• Growth in services industries &
knowledge-intensive industries (tourism, hospitality education,
biotechnology)
• Cooperation in health care activities
• Investment in infrastructure
• Rising ‘middle class’
• Increasing interest of the private sector
• Tensions in South China Sea
• Slowdown in the US, the EU and the Chinese GDP
growth
• Vulnerability to financial markets
• Competition from China in manufacturing and
investment
• Some competition from India in services
• Climate change and environmental risk
• Potential of infectious disease outbreak
ASEAN’s Strengths and Weaknesses
Akses Pasar
Sumberdaya
Akses
Teknologi
Akses
Investasi
Akses
PERCEPATAN PEMBANGUNAN DAERAH
Sumber: ASEAN Secretariat (2010) dalam Agus Tjahajana
Country
Trade With World
Trade With ASEAN
Exports
Imports
Exports
Share to World
Imports
Share to World
Brunei Darussalam
12.362,3
2.460,0
1.721,1
13,92%
1.191,1
48,42%
Cambodia
6.710,6
6.133,6
833,7
12,42%
2.170,1
35,38%
Indonesia
203.496,7
177.435,6
42.098,9
20,69%
57.254,3
32,27%
Lao PDR
1.746,5
2.209,4
959,8
54,96%
1.570,5
71,08%
Malaysia
228.179,1
187.542,8
56.049,7
24,56%
52.090,0
27,77%
Myanmar
8.119,2
6.805,9
3.957,4
48,74%
3.250,3
47,76%
Philippines
48.042,2
63.709,4
8.635,3
17,97%
15.040,3
23,61%
Singapore
409.443,5
365.709,1
127.544,5
31,15%
78.126,4
21,36%
Thailand
228.820,7
230.083,6
72.226,6
31,56%
39.224,2
17,05%
Vietnam
95.365,6
104.216,5
13.504,8
14,16%
20.793,2
19,95%
•
Mayoritas perdagangan negara-negara anggota ASEAN dilakukan dengan negara-negara non-ASEAN.
•
Hal tersebut menunjukan bahwa potensi perdagangan intra-regional ASEAN belum sepenuhnya dimanfaatkan.
Dalam Juta USD
7
Exports
Source : CIA World Factbook (2012) dalam Agus Tjahajana
Brunei
Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Japan 45.2% US 39.5% Japan 16.6% Thailand
33%, China 13.1%, Thailand 36.7%, Japan 18.5% Malaysia 12.2% China 12% US 18% South Korea
15.9% Canada 8.2% China 11.3% China 23.4%
Singapore 12.7%, China 18.8% US 14.8% Hong Kong 11% Japan 10.5% China 11% Australia 11.4% Germany 7.8% Singapore 9.1% Vietnam
13.4% Japan 11.5%, India 14.1% China 12.7% China 10.4% US 9.6% Japan 11%
Indonesia 8.1% UK 7.5% US 8.1% US 8.3%, Japan 6.6% Singapore 8.9% Indonesia 10.4%
Hong Kong 7.2%
Germany 3.7%
India 5.7% Vietnam 6% South Korea
8.1% Thailand 5.1%,
Hong Kong
7.7% US 5.4% Malaysia 5.4%
China 4.4% Japan 4.3% India 6.6% Hong Kong
4.5%,
South Korea
4.6% Japan 4.5% Singapore 5%
Malaysia 5.4% India 4.1% Indonesia
4.4%
• Pasar tujuan ekspor Negara-negara ASEAN didominasi oleh negara-negara Asia Timur
seperti China, Korea dan Jepang serta negara-negara ekonomi utama seperti Amerika
Serikat dan India serta beberapa negara-negara Eropa.
8Imports
Source : CIA World Factbook (2012) dalam Agus Tjahajana
Brunei Cambodia Indonesia Lao PDR Malaysia Myanmar Philippines Singapore Thailand Vietnam
Singapore 27.4%, Thailand
24.6%, China 14.8%,
Thailand
65.2%, China 13.2%, China 38.8%, Japan 10.8%
Malaysia 10.7% Japan 18.4% China 22% India 15.4%, Vietnam 20.6%, Singapore 14.6%, China 11.1%, Singapore 12.8%, Thailand 22.6% US 10.8% US 10.7% China 13.4% South Korea 13.2%
China 12.8%, China 19.9%, Japan 11%, Vietnam 6.5% Japan 11.4%, Singapore
9.7% China 10.1% China 10.4% UAE 6.3% Japan 10.4%
South Korea 10.1%, Singapore 7.8%, South Korea 7.3%, US 9.7%, South Korea
5.4% Singapore 8.1% Japan 7.2% US 5.9% Taiwan 8.6%
Malaysia 9.4%, Hong Kong
6% US 6.1%, Indonesia 6.1%, Malaysia 4.5% South Korea 7.3% South Korea 5.9% Malaysia 5.4% Thailand 6.4%
Germany 7.9% Thailand 5.9%, Thailand 6%, Japan 4.1% Thailand 5.8% Taiwan 5.9% South Korea
4% Singapore 6.4%
Malaysia 5.9% South Korea
4%
Saudi Arabia
5.4%
Malaysia 4.4%
•
Fenomena yang sama juga terjadi pada pasar asal produk impor negara-negara ASEAN dimana
mitra utama impor negara-negara tersebut masih didominasi oleh negara-negara Asia Timur dan
Amerika Serikat serta beberapa negara Eropa.
•
AEC menjadi penting dalam rangkan mendorong peningkatan perdagangan intra-regional ASEAN.
POTENSI SEKTOR JASA
• Sektor jasa merupakan sektor yang sangat berkembang di ASEAN,
mencapai 40%-10% dari PDB negara ASEAN.
• Dengan liberalisasi ASEAN di bidang jasa (dalam AFAS) membuka peluang
untuk Sektor Jasa (perdagangan, pengangkutan, pariwisata, dll.).
• Kendati demikian, liberalisasi jasa juga meliputi movement of natural
person (MNP) yang dapat meningkatkan persaingan bagi generasi pencari
kerja Indonesia.
1. Forum komunikasi aktif pemerintah dan pelaku usaha.
2. Interkonektifitas nasional.
3. Persiapan menghadapi MRA:
a) koordinasi antara pemerintah, institusi profesional, dan institusi akademik.
b) menyusun standar nasional di sektor profesional sesuai dengan MRA ASEAN.
Rank (out of 148) Indonesia Brunei Darussalam
Malaysia Singapore Thailand Philippines Viet Nam Overall Index 38 26 24 2 37 59 70
Institutions 67 25 29 3 78 79 98
Infrastructure 61 58 29 2 47 96 82
Macroeconomic environment 26 1 38 18 31 40 87
Health & Primary Education 72 23 33 2 81 96 67
Higher education & training 64 55 46 2 66 67 95
Goods market efficiency 50 42 10 1 34 82 74
Labor market efficiency 103 10 25 1 62 100 56
Financial market development 60 56 6 2 32 48 93
Technological readiness 75 71 51 7 78 77 102
Market size 15 131 26 34 22 33 36
Business sophistication 37 56 20 17 40 49 98
Innovation 33 59 25 9 66 69 76
Sumber: World Economic Forum Global Competitiveness Index 2013-2014
PERINGKAT IPM NEGARA NEGARA ASEAN, 2013
Source: Human Development Report 2013, UNDP
No
Country
Rank
Index
1
Brunei Darussalam
30
0,855
2
Cambodia
138
0,543
3
Indonesia
121
0,629
4
Laos
138
0,543
5
Malaysia
64
0,769
6
Myanmar
149
0,498
7
Philippines
114
0,654
8
Singapore
18
0,895
9
Thailand
103
0,690
10
Vietnam
127
0,617
PRODUKTIVITAS TENAGA KERJA PER PEKERJA, PDB 2010
PRODUKTIVITAS BERDASARKAN SEKTOR, 2010:
PERBANDINGAN INDONESIA DENGAN NEGARA ASEAN
Source: World Bank
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
NILAI TAMBAH PER PEKERJA (US$)
Source: World Bank
2,000
4,000
6,000
8,000
10,000
12,000
14,000
Cambodia Mongolia Indonesia Phillippines
China
Thailand
Malaysia
Lao PDR
Vietnam
Value Added per Worker (2005 PPP$)
1995
2005
2010
0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000
Tahun 2011 Tahun 2012 Tahun 2013
Aceh Sumut Riau Kep.Riau Sumbar Jambi Bengkulu Sumsel Bangka Belitung Lampung Banten DKI Jakarta Jabar Jateng DI Yogyakarta Jatim Bali NTB NTT Kalbar
