Depnaker-Prospek_2025 Faisal Basri.ppt

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PROSPEK EKONOMI

INDONESIA 2025

Faisal Basri

28 November 2008

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 Tak ada jalan pintas untuk memperoleh hasil yang berwujud perbaikan berkelanjutan 

Fondasi yang kokoh adalah prasyarat mutlak.

 Yang kita benahi sekarang baru akan

menghasilkan bertahun-tahun kemudian, tapi lebih pasti. Semakin berkualitas benih yang kita tanam, semakin besar kemungkinan kita akan menuai hasil yang lebih banyak dan berkualitas.

Kaidah dasar

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Patterns of development

Smooth or normal pattern

Dicontinuum pattern Great Leap/

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Welfare

disturbance

actual _disturbance

Back to normal track

Normal pattern

lack of institutions

Time

1945 1955 1965 1975 1985 1995 2005

Discontinuum pattern

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Fungsi perencanaan

Bertolak dari

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Visi Nasional versus Visi YIF

NASIONAL

 Tujuan: Pembukaan UUD

1945

 Visi 2025: Indonesia yang

mandiri, maju, adil dan makmur:

• Pengangguran terbuka < 5%

• Jumlah orang miskin < 5%

• Pendapatan perkapita setara

dengan “upper middle income” yang tahun 2005 rata-rata

$5,625

YIF

 Tujuan: tak tercantum

eksplisit

 Visi 2030: Negara maju yang

unggul dalam pengelolaan kekayaan alam:

• 5 besar kekuatan ekonomi

dunia

• Pendapatan perkapita $18,000

• 10 besar tujuan pariwisata

dunia

• 30 besar indeks HDI

• 30 perusahaan Indonesia

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Tujuan (common goals/ends)

 _{Melindungi segenap bangsa Indonesia dan seluruh}

tumpah darah Indonesia

 _{Memajukan kesejahteraan umum}

 _{Mencerdaskan kehidupan bangsa}

 _{Ikut melaksanakan ketertiban dunia yang}

berdasarkan kemerdekaan, perdamaian abadi dan keadilan sosial.

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Kesejahteraan sosial

 Tidak boleh ada kemiskinan di bumi Indonesia Merdeka.

 Tidak didominasi oleh Kaum Kapitalis

 _{Kesejateraan yang merata ke seluruh rakyatnya}

(kesejahteraan bersama = kesejahteraan sosial)

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Kebahagiaan

(Happiness) Modal SosialModal Sosial

Modal Spiritual

Mewujudkan kebahagiaan: 4 pilar

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Kebahagiaan

 _{“Happiness is the meaning and the purpose of life, the}

whole aim and end of human existence.” —Aristotle

 _{“All laws and all actions should aim at producing the}

greatest happiness.”

—Jeremy Bentham

 _{“We should monitor the development of happiness in our}

countries as closely as we monitor the development of income.”

—Richard Layard

 _{“Growth is no longer making us happy.”}

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Gross national income per capita, US$, 2005

Country GNI Per Capita Per CapitaPPP GNI

Norway 59,590 40,420

Switzerland 54,930 37,080

Denmark 47,390 33,570

United States 43,740 41,950

Sweden 41,060 31,420

Country GNI per capita PPP GNI per capita PPP : Non-PPP

Singapore 27,490 29,780 1.1

Malaysia 4,960 10,320 2.1

Thailand 2,750 8,840 3.2

China 1,740 6,600 3.8

Philippines 1,300 5,300 4.1

Indonesia 1,280 3,720 2.9

Vietnam 620 3,010 4.8

Israel 18,620 25,280 1.4

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The size of the economy

Country US$ billionsGNI, 2005 Population, 2005Millions

United States 12,970 296

Japan 4,988 128

Germany 2,852 82

China 2,264 1,305

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 Pertumbuhan yang berkualitas

 Daya saing perekomian

 Kualitas SDM: pendidikan dan kesehatan

 Budaya riset sebagai kunci menjadi negara industrial yang tangguh

 Ketimpangan: antarkelompok pendapatan, antarsektor, fungsional, desa-kota

Tantangan perekonomian Indonesia

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Low quality growth, 2000-2008 (%)

2 4 6 8 10

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Tradable Non-tradable GDP

* Jan-Sep (until 3rd_quarter).

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Demographic windows of opportunity

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Terima Kasih

Email: [email protected]

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INDONESIA DI TENGAH

KRISIS FINANSIAL GLOBAL:

TINJAUAN EKONOMI POLITIK

Faisal Basri

27 November 2008

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Bagian I

Pusat Gempa dan

Kemakmuran Semu

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Size of US economy and financial system

 Total value of all goods and services produced: $13.8tr (Indonesia = $0.4 tr)

 Total amount of money in circulation: $0.57 tr

 Total debts Gov & Private = $32.4 tr (235% GDP)

 Treasury debts: $9.2 tr (67% GDP)

 Household debts: $14.0 tr (101% GDP)

 Home mortgage: $10.6 tr (77% GDP)

 Sub-prime & its derivatives: + $3.0 tr

 US Bail out package: $0.7 tr

 Bail out plus injection = $1 tr (7% GDP)

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Lemak menyelimuti jantung

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The end of the affair …

Source: The Economist (http://www.economist.com/world/unitedstates/displaystory.cfm?

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Scary

Source: The Economist, October 11-17, 2008, A Special Report, p.10; and Newsweek,

November 10, 2008, p. 42-3.

 Personal savings

as a percentage of dipsosable income:

 1997 = 8.7%

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Over-the-counter derivatives: BIS-data

0 100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000

98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07

DERIVATIVESTOTAL

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OTC credit default swaps (BIS data)

(billions US dollars)

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U.S. Stock market history

Source: Wall Street Journal, http://online.wsj.com/article/SB122368241652024977.html (October

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THREE BEARS:

THREE BEARS: the past century’s worst market slumps

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Comparison of economic crisis

 _{US Great Depression (1929–1934)}

 Un-employment: 25%

 Mortgage NPL: 40% (in 1934)

 Industrial production dropped 54% (1929–1932)

 US this year (August 2007 – October 2008)

 Unemployment: slightly over 6.5%

 Mortgage NPL: 4%

 Industrial production has dropped 2% since Jan 2008

 Cost of Bailout

 US Saving & Loans crisis 1988: 3.7% GDP

 Mexico (1994): 19.3% GDP

 Japan (1997): 24% GDP

 South Korea (1997): 31.2% GDP

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… Recession is coming

 A Record Decline in October’s Retail Sales in

the last 16 years.

 Consumer Prices Sink Amid Slump :The U.S. consumer price index fell 1.0% in October from the previous month, the biggest drop in 61 years.. (wsj.com, Nov. 19, 2008).

 Downturn Drags More Consumers Into

Bankruptcy—The economy’s deep troubles are pushing a growing number of already struggling consumers into bankruptcy .., often with far more debt than those who filed in previous downturns.

 Jobless claim hit 7-year high

 Tech Companies, Long Insulated, Now Feel

Slump—In the span of just a few weeks, orders for both business and consumer tech products have collapsed, and technology companies have begun laying off workers (nytimes.com,

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U.S. Stock market lost

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Bailout Fails to Stem Global Stock Slump

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Stimulus jangan sampai garami laut

How much help government think the economy needs, then add 50 percent. It's much better, in a

depressed economy, to err on the side of too much stimulus than on the side of too little.

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Anatomy of crisis

 _{The fundamental cause was not greed and}

corruption on Wall Street.

 _{The crisis has roots in key policy decisions}

stretching back over more than three decades.

 _{At the domestic level, the key decisions in the}

United States were to deregulate commissions for stock trading in the 1970s and then to

eliminate the Glass-Steagall restrictions on

mixing commercial and investment banking in the 1990s.

 The other key element in the crisis was the set of policies giving rise to global imbalances. The Bush Administration cut taxes, causing

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All out plan by other countries

 China pledges $586 billion to offset

slowing growth (economic stimulus plan)

 _{EU got together to support their}

banking systems with a

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 Global economic growth to slow

significantly in second half of 2008.

 _{Main factors: Rising energy,}

commodity prices have boosted inflationary pressure.

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The financial crisis is spreading rapidly ..

.. to the previously resilient developing world:

 _{Global trade is forecast to shrink in 2009 for the first time}

since 1982.

 Foreign investment and short-term credit are drying up.

 Developing country exports are falling; large amounts of capital have been withdrawn.

 Many developing countries face sharply tighter credit and higher interest rates.

 GDP growth in developing countries is expected to fall to 4.5% from a projected 6.4%.

 _{Private capital flows are expected to drop from $1 trillion in}

2007 to $530 billion in 2009.

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Oil prices fall approached $50 a barrel

Crude Oil Lt Sweet Pit (Nymex) January, 2009

Source: http://online.wsj.com/mdc/public/page/mdc_commodities.html

Adjusted by producer-price index = US$118

Adjusted by annual income within G-7 countries = US$134

Adjusted by disposable income of US = US$145

Spending on oil as a share of global output = US$150

• Source: Economist, April 17, 2008. 5:14 p.m. EDT

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Oil prices and stock market

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Commodity prices appear to have peaked

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Shares of Global GDP, 2007

Country exchange rates*At PPP exchange ratesAt market

United States 21.36 25.51

China 10.83 5.99

Japan 6.61 8.08

India 4.58 2.02

Germany 4.34 6.12

United Kingdom 3.30 5.11

Russia 3.18 2.38

France 3.17 4.72

Brazil 2.81 2.42

Italy 2.76 3.88

*PPP = purchasing power parity.

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The contribution of emerging market

economies has doubled since 1990

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Advanced economies are most affected

by financial turbulence

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Global outlook

Source: IMF, World Economic Outlook, October 2008: 25.

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Bagian II

Perekonomian Indonesia

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Apakah landasan ekonomi kita sangat kokoh?

Indonesia Korban Tidak Bersalah

(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)

Indonesia berada di urutan teratas dalam daftar korban krisis yang

tidak bersalah dalam gejolak ekonomi dunia saat ini. Oleh karena

itu, Indonesia meminta perhatian dunia untuk mendapat prioritas

pertama sebagai negara yang perlu diselamatkan dari kemungkinan terburuk akibat krisis.

”Dalam krisis ini, negara yang bagus, mengelola keuangannya dengan baik, dan memiliki institusi ekonomi yang sehat serta

kredibel tetap bisa terkena dampak negatif. Itu tidak fair (adil). Ini

yang disebut innocent victim (korban yang tidak bersalah),” ujar

Menteri Keuangan sekaligus Pelaksana Jabatan Menko Perekonomian Sri Mulyani Indrawati seusai Rapat Koordinasi Terbatas dengan

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Sumber daya tahan

 Perekonomian Indonesia dan sektor keuangannya tak

terkait erat dengan sektor finansial AS.

 Harga minyak turun ke level di bawah $50 per barrel.

 Current account masih surplus walau surplusnya

menyusut.

 Porsi ekspor Indonesia ke AS, Eropa, dan Jepang sudah

menunjukkan penurunan; bergeser ke EM dan Asean.

 Sektor perbankan sudah cukup terkonsolidasi. Indikator

kesehatan perbankan (ROA, ROE, NIM, CAR) di atas rata-rata negara tetangga, bahkan bisa dikatakan yang terbaik, kecuali LDR. (warning: bank BUMN!!!)

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Collapse of financial institutions in the US

Credit crunch, Bail out and liquidity drying up

Risk aversion capital outflows from Emerging Markets

Financing and Liquidity Problems in Emerging Mkt

Financial Sector Instability in Emerging Mkt

Global economic slow down (shrinking global trade)

Declining trend of commodity prices

Financial distress and global credit crunch

Classical problem of Emerging Markets:

Slower global growth declining commodity prices export slow down deteriorating CA balance Depreciating currency

Global Economic &

Financial Crisis

Indonesia Economy Balance of Payments

Problems

Financial Markets Channels

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Balance of payments

Source: Bank Indonesia.

2006 2007 Q1-08 Q2-08 H1-08

I. CURRENT ACCOUNT 10,836 10,401 2,328 -1,477 851 A. Goods, net (Trade

Balance) 29,660 32,754 7,526 5,354 12,880

1. Exports, f.o.b. 103,528 118,014 34,400 37,255 71,655 2. Imports, f.o.b. -73,868 -85,260 -26,874 -31,901 -58,775

B. Services, net -9,888 -11,797 -2,973 -3,274 -6,247

C. Income, net -13,800 -15,524 -3,536 -4,889 -8,425

D. Current Transfers,

net 4,863 4,968 1,312 1,332 2,644

II. CAPITAL & FINANCIAL

ACCOUNT 2,944 3,322 -337 3,725 3,388 A. Capital Account 350 546 41 57 98 B. Financial Account 2,594 2,776 -378 3,668 3,290

1. Direct investment 2,211 2,139 1,106 958 2,064

2. Portfolio investment 4,174 5,523 1,923 4,314 6,237

3. Other investment -3,791 -4,885 -3,407 -1,604 -5,011

III. ERRORS & OMISSIONS 729 -1,008 -960 -923 -1,883

IV. RESERVES &RELATED

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Foreign merchandise trade: price effects

2005 2006 2007 2008* 2006 2007 2008*

Total export 85.7 100.8 114.0 107.6 17.7 13.1 29.7

Non-oil and gas 66.4 79.6 91.9 83.3 19.8 15.5 23.4 Oil and gas 19.2 21.2 22.1 24.3 10.3 4.1 57.3

Total import 57.7 61.1 74.4 101.1 5.8 21.9 53.4

Non-oil and gas 40.2 42.1 52.5 75.2 4.6 24.8 47.4 Oil and gas 17.5 19.0 21.9 25.9 8.6 15.5 68.4

Billion US$ Growth (yoy)

Description

* January-September.

Source: BPS.

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Trade balance of oil and oil products

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Crude Oil

Exports 5,228 5,621 6,241 8,146 8,169 9,226 10,891

Imports 3,217 3,928 5,831 6,797 7,853 9,057 8,407

(X - M) 2,011 1,694 410 1,349 316 169 2,484

Oil Products

Exports 1,308 1,548 1,654 1,932 2,844 2,871 2,778

Imports 3,309 3,583 5,892 10,646 11,080 12,734 17,337 (X - M) -2,001 -2,035 -4,238 -8,714 -8,236 -9,863 -14,559

Total

Exports 6,535 7,169 7,896 10,078 11,013 12,097 13,669 Imports 6,526 7,510 11,724 17,443 18,933 21,791 25,744 (X - M) 10 -342 -3,828 -7,365 -7,920 -9,694 -12,075

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Trade balance of oil and gas

•January-September

•Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

-10000 -5000 0 5000 10000 15000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008*

Oil & oil products Gas Oil & gas

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Jasa di neraca pembayaran

1997 2005 2006 2007

A. Trade balance 10,074 17,534 29,660 32,718

B. Services, net 9,667 -9,122 -9,888- 11,797

-C. Income, net -6,332 -12,927 -13,800 -15,524

D. Current transfer,

net 725 4,793 4,863 4,968

Current account 5,199- 278 10,836 10,365

Source: Bank Indonesia

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Another financial crisis?

-10,000

Capital & Financial Account, net Errors & Omissions

Current Account

* First semester

Source: Bank Indonesia, July 2008.

-10,000

Direct Investment, net Portfolio Investment, net Other Investment, net

2006 2007 2008*

Structure of balance of payments (US$ millions)

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Indonesia: direct investment

* First semester

Source: Bank Indonesia.

Year Abroad In Indonesia Net

1997 - 4,677 4,677

1998 - -241 -241

1999 - -1,865 -1,865

2000 - -4,551 -4,551

2001 - -2,977 -2,977

2002 - 145 145

2003 - -597 -597

2004 -3,408 1,896 -1,512

2005 -3,065 8,336 5,271

2006 -2,703 4,914 2,211

2007 -4,790 6,928 2,139

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The role of foreign direct investment (1)

Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.

-5 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40

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The role of foreign direct investment (2)

0 10 20 30 40 50 60

FDI stocks as a percentage of gross domestic product

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The role of FDI in Asia & South America, 2006

Notes: FDI = Foreign Direct Investment (inward); GFCF = Gross Fixed Capital Formation; GDP = Gross Domestic Product. Source: UNCTAD, World Investment Report 2007.

Country Percent

Venezuela -2.1 Bangladesh 3.9 Sri Lanka 6.2

Indonesia 6.4

South America 13.1

Country Percent

Indonesia 5.2

India 5.7

Bangladesh 6.3 Sri Lanka 10.9 China 11.1

South America 26.0

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FDI performance and potential

Performance

Brunei, China, Hong Kong, Malaysia,

Singapore

Below potential:

Iran, Israel, Kuwait, Philippines, Taiwan, Thailand

Low FDI

Potential

Above potential:

Azerbaijan,

Tajikistan, Viet Nam

Under-performers:

Bangladesh, India,

Indonesia,

Pakistan, Sri Lanka

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Japanese FDI: downward evaluation of Indonesia

Rank 1997 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007

1st China China China China China China China China China

2nd USA USA USA Thiland Thailand Thailand India India India

3rd Indonesia Thailand Thailand USA USA India Thailand Vietnam Vietnam 4th Thailand Indonesia Indonesia Indonesia Vietnam Vietnam Viet nam Thailand Thailand

5th India Malaysia India Vietnam India USA USA USA Russia

6th Vetnam Taiwan Vietnam India Indonesia Russia Russia Russia USA 7th Philippines India Taiwan Korea Korea Indonesia Korea Brazil Brazil

8th _Malaysia _Vietnam _Korea _Taiwan _Taiwan _Korea _Indonesia _Korea _Indonesia

9th Brazil Korea Malaysia Malaysia Malaysia Taiwan Brazil Indonesia Korea 10th Taiwan Philippines Singapore Brazil Russia Malaysia Taiwan Taiwan Taiwan

Promising countries for overseas business operation over the medium term (next 3 years or so)

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Better foundation

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Structure of foreign debts

4%

 Total gross external debts:

 Government (+ Monetary Authority) = US$ 87.5 billions

 Private Sectors = US$ 62.2 billions

 Total = US$149.7 billions

 Short-term external debts (in percent of foreign exchange

reserves) = 34.5%

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Bloomberg commodity price index

Source: CITI’s Asia Macro Views, “Measuring Asia’s External Vulnerability,” 8 October 2008

Too big, too high

External vulnerability: regional comparison – economic perception

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Siapkan kondisi terburuk

 _{Krisis finansial global menyadarkan kita tentang}

rapuhnya tatanan yang ada  muncul tuntutan untuk penataan ulang sistem finansial global dan interaksi hubungan ekonomi antarbangsa.

 _{Perekonomian kita justru cenderung mengarah ke pola}

AS yang rapuh itu. Tentu konsekuensinya bisa lebih parah karena kita tak punya kemewahan untuk

menjawab masalah sebagaimana yg dialami AS.

 _{Perubahan pola pikir yang mendasar agar landasan}

perekonomian nasional lebih kokoh:

 Mencapai tujuan secara efektif

(68)

Economic temperature higher ..

4

2002 2003 2004

4.60 7.20

Source: BPS.

2005

8.81

Inflation returns 2 digit, y-o-y, %

(69)

BI Rate bisa turun?

7.0

(70)

Persoalan likuiditas

 LIBOR tenor 1 bln turun dr 4.5% pd awal Okt ke 2.3% pd

awal Nov. Bahkan overnite $ sdh di bawah 0.5%. Jadi, , likuiditas dan trust di pasar uang antarbank membaik.

 Sejauh ini di Indonesia masih belum normal. Likuiditas

sudah membaik, tapi terkonsentrasi di beberapa bank, sehingga pinjaman antarbank di Indonesia masih seret.

 _{Penyebab likuiditas ketat di Indonesia:}

 Pemerintah tarik dana banyak, tapi spending lamban.

 Intervensi BI untuk jaga Rupiah Jan-Sep US$16 miliar.

(71)

Government account at BI

Aug-04 Aug-05 Aug-06 Aug-07 Aug-08

200000

180000

160000

140000

120000

100000

80000

60000

40000

20000

0

(72)

Heart beat has been increasing

Heart beat has been increasing …_…

8,500

Source: Bank Indonesia

(73)

Depresiasi mata uang mewabah Hong Kong Dollar Taiwanese Dollar New Zealand Dollar Australian Dollar South Korean Won

Oct-Nov '08 ytd

Apresiasi Depresiasi

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Multiinterpretatif dan self-interest

Imbauan Diperlukan, tetapi Tak Akan Efektif

(Kompas, Kamis, 20 November 2008)

Imbauan Bank Indonesia agar masyarakat mengonversi dollar AS yang dimilikinya ke mata uang rupiah memang diperlukan sebagai ajakan moral dari otoritas. Namun, langkah itu dinilai tidak akan efektif menguatkan rupiah.

Menteri Perindustrian Fahmi Idris mengatakan, seruan

Gubernur BI kepada masyarakat untuk melepas kepemilikan dollar AS di dalam negeri tidak ditujukan kepada para

pejabat dan masyarakat umum.

(75)

Fenomena US$ dan dampaknya pada Rp

 Hampir semua mata uang melemah terhadap US$.

 _{Perekonomian AS sedang sakit parah.}

 AS sangat haus utang, karena tekor di segala lini:

 belanja > pendapatan;

 _{konsumsi > produksi;}

 impor > ekspor (current account deficit);

 _{pengeluaran pemerintah > penerimaan pemerintah}_(budget

deficit)

 Jadi, terjadi anomali? It’s not that people want to own

dollars, its just that they want to own the alternatives even less.

(76)

JSX index dropped significantly

800

Business Week, 14-21 Maret 2007, hal.18.

(77)

Kunci penyelesaian

 _{Bursa masih tersandera oleh saham-saham}

Bakrie Group.

 _{Jangan sampai saham-saham perusahaan batu}

bara jatuh ke tangan asing  bertentangan dengan semangat divestasi kontrak karya.

 _{Buka opsi}_bailout.

(78)

Sekarang Bakrie, lalu Bukaka dan Bosowa…

Wapres: Kelangsungan Hidup Bakrie Perlu Dijaga

Kompas.com, Jumat, 14 November 2008 | 13:35 WIB

"Pemerintah berkewajiban menjaga

kelangsungan hidup pengusaha nasional. Bukan hanya Bakrie, tetapi siapa saja supaya

usahanya tetap berjalan," ujar Wapres dalam jumpa pers usai shalat Jumat di Istana Wapres, Jakarta, (14/11).

Dengan pemikiran seperti itu, pembelaan pemerintah kepada Bakrie masih dalam kategori wajar. Pemerintah sebelumnya juga membela pengusaha lain seperti Astra, Danamon, BCA,

sejumlah bank lain, dan sejumlah konglomerat. "Masakan

membantu Bakrie tidak boleh," ujarnya.

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Indonesia’s post-crisis journey

-21

Source: BPS.

6.

6

Quarterly GDP growth, y-o-y, %

4. Consolidation and

acceleration

SBY: Throws away

(80)

Low quality — Sectoral growth rate

(2000 base year, year-on-year growth rate, %)

2006 2007 Q3-07 Q4-07 Q1-08 Q2-08 Q3-08

Tradable 3.7 3.8 5.2 2.3 3.4 3.2 3.2

Agriculture 3.0 3.5 8.9 3.1 6.0 4.6 2.4

Mining & Quarrying 2.2 2.0 1.8 -2.1 -2.3 -0.9 1.6

Manufacturing 4.6 4.7 4.5 3.8 4.3 4.1 4.3

Non-Tradable 7.4 9.0 7.9 10.6 9.5 10.1 9.5

Electricity, Gas & Water 5.9 10.4 11.7 11.8 12.1 11.2 10.6

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Real GDP growth: tradables (%)

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

2004 2005 2006 2007 H1-2008 Share 1. Agriculture 2.8% 2.7% 3.4% 3.5% 5.3% 14.0%

a. Farm Food Crops 2.9% 2.6% 3.0% 3.5% 6.5% 7.5% b. Non Food Crops 0.4% 2.5% 3.8% 3.5% 6.6% 1.9%

c. Others 3.9% 3.0% 3.7% 3.5% 4.6%

2. Mining and Quarrying -4.5% 3.2% 1.7% 2.0% -1.4% 8.3%

a. Oil & Gas -4.3% -1.8% -1.1% -1.2% 0.0% 4.6% b. Non Oil & Gas -8.0% 12.2% 4.8% 5.5% -6.5% 2.7% c. Quarrying 7.5% 7.7% 8.3% 8.6% 8.1% 0.9%

3. Manufacturing Industries 6.4% 4.6% 4.6% 4.7% 4.1% 26.9%

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Pertumbuhan manufaktur besar & sedang

KL

BI Uraian 2006 2007 2008*

15 Makanan & minuman 11.9 5.2 -4.9

16 Pengolahan tembakau -0.9 15.9 6.8

17 Tekstil 6.0 11.2 4.7

18 Pakaian jadi 67.3 -23.0 -30.6

20 Kayu dan brg dr kayu -41.0 -16.4 0.6 24 Kimia & brg dr kimia 25.8 35.8 -13.0 26 Brg galian bkn logam 11.8 0.3 -15.1

27 Logam dasar 22.1 12.1 -2.6

29 Mesin & perlengkapannya -2.9 43.0 -17.3

31

Mesin listrik lainnya dan

perlengkapannya -1.3 -22.1 12.2

32 Radio, TV & peralatan komunikasi 87.1 50.5 12.7

34 Kendaraan bermotor -46.5 29.6 16.6

35

Alat angkutan, selain kendaraan

bermotor roda-4 -36.6 -8.9 48.0

36 Furnitur & pengolahan lainnya -1.9 -14.1 43.4 Total industri manufaktur -1.6 5.6 1.6

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Sumbangan manufaktur terhadap PDB, %

Source: BPS.

31

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Jumlah penyerapan tenaga kerja

Sumber : BPS, Sensus Ekonomi 2006.

Sektor Tenaga Kerja Persentase

Pertambangan & Penggalian 633.711 1,3

Industri Pengolahan 11.785.057 23,8

Listrik, Gas, Air Bersih 161.775 0,3

Konstruksi 724.521 1,5

Perdagangan Besar dan Eceran 17.207.494 34,5

Akomodasi, Makan, Minum 5.137.200 10,3

Transportasi, Gudang, Komunikasi 3.561.066 7,2

Perantara Keuangan 905.088 1,8

Real Estat, Usaha Persewaan 1.833.224 3,7

Jasa Pendidikan 4.027.744 8,1

Jasa Kesehatan dan Kegiatan Sosial 732.557 1,5 Jasa Kemasyarakatan, Sosbud, Hiburan 2.756.960 5,6 Jasa Perseorangan layani rumahtangga 203.77 0,4

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Real GDP growth: non-tradables (%)

Source: Badan Pusat Statistik.

2004 2005 2006 2007 Share 4. Utilities 5.3% 6.3% 5.8% 10.4% 0.7% 5. Constructions 7.5% 7.5% 8.3% 8.6% 6.2% 6. Trade, Hotel & Rest. 5.7% 8.3% 6.4% 8.5% 17.3%

a. Wholesale & Retail 5.5% 8.8% 6.6% 8.9% 14.3%

b. Hotel 7.9% 6.2% 5.2% 5.3% 0.7%

c. Restaurant 6.1% 5.9% 5.8% 6.8% 2.3%

7. Transport & Comm. 13.4% 12.8% 14.4% 14.4% 7.3%

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Which industries are most at risk?

Source: Processed from BPS, Industry Statistics, 2005

1 = electric motor industry 9 = four or more wheel motor vehicles industry 2 = root & tuber processing industry 10 = two or three wheel motor vehicles industry 3 = fruit & vegetables canning industry 11 = cement industry

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