Slide 2 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Indonesia Macroeconomic Overview
World Bank anticipates Indonesia’s economy to grow by 5.3% in 2017 and 5.5% in 2018
and 2019 supported by resilient domestic demand and improvement in private investment
IMF: In 2017, growth is expected to rise modestly to 5.1%, led by a gradual pickup in
private investment in response to stronger commodity prices, low interest rates, and a
recovery in external demand on the back of a pickup in global growth and trade
Bank Indonesia reaffirmed its estimate of 5.0% - 5.4% growth rate in the economy for
2017
Overall, we see the cautious early signs of green shoots
–
where Consumer Confidence
Index remain robust at the end of Q2 2017 with income boosted by Tunjangan Hari Raya,
end of elections, S&P rating upgrade for Indonesia (the last of the three key credit ratings
agencies to give investment grade status).
Source: Indonesia Statistic
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INDOCEMENT
Indonesian Cement Industry 2017 Landscape
Lafarge Indonesia
1.5 mio ton 0.2 mio ton (g)
Semen Baturaja
2.2 mio ton
0.7 mio ton (g) Semen Indonesia 15.2 mio ton 0.7 mio ton (g)
Semen Puger
0.5 mio ton
Semen Kupang/Merah Putih
0.4 mio ton
Jui Shin
1.8 mio ton
Holcim Indonesia
12.1 mio ton
Semen Indonesia
7.2 mio ton 0.9 mio ton (g)
Merah Putih
4.9 mio ton 2.8 mio ton (g)
Indocement
24.9 mio ton
Total Cement Capacity in 2017 of 103.8* mio tons, from 98.5 mio tons in 2016
Source: ASI and internal estimation
Anhui Conch
4.5 mio ton
Panasia
1.8 mio ton
Siam Cement
1.8 mio ton
Semen Bosowa
4.4 mio ton 3.0 mio ton (g)
Semen Indonesia
7.4 mio ton
Anhui Conch
Slide 4 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
CAGR Supply 2001-2015: 4.0% CAGR Demand 2001-2015: 6.5%
CAGR Supply 2016-2025: 2.4% CAGR Demand 2016-2025: 6.8%
Demand/Supply Outlook: Oversupply Market
in mio Tons
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 Mio Ton
Demand Growth Domestic Demand Domestic Supply Utilization
Consumption per capita = 243 kg Vietnam = 611 kg Thailand = 443 kg Malaysia = 751 kg Philippines = 240 kg Singapore = 1,380 kg Brunei = 899 kg Export
Export Import
Slide 5 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2016
H1 2017
Domestic Demand (mio T) GDP Growth Demand Growth
Cement demand shows down trend 4 years in a row as multiplier
effect of infrastructure spending has not been realized
Cement Demand signs bottom up amid strong trade balance signal
Bio USD % Demand
Growth
Mortgage Rate %
% Demand
Growth Support by positive trade balance
Weighted by relatively high mortgage rate Source: Indonesian Cement Association, BPS Statistic
7.5%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 2016
H1 2017
Non Oil and Gas Oil and Gas
Slide 6 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Heavy Equipment Order may Reach 20% Higher YoY
Confirmation of commodity sector recovery and infrastructure strong progress
Heavy equipment order is a leading indicator for cement demand
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INDOCEMENT
Market Growth:
>15%
5-10% 0-5%
<0% 10-15%
Domestic Consumption Growth & Market Share per region
YTD June 2017
Source: Indonesia Cement Association
Source: Indonesia Statistic (processed)
Note:
- Lebaran season in June 2017 corrected the market growth +4.1% in Ytd May 2017.
- Contrary, prior year Lebaran that hit the market was occurred in July 2016. - In general Western Part of Java still
having sluggish demand while mid and east significantly boosted by infra project. - Outside java is mixture to slightly on
Slide 8 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Java (LHS) Outside Java (RHS)
Java is still key market area in delivering strong results
•
On absolute terms Java remains the dominant factors in delivering strong
results
•
Indocement is able to protect home market and maintain stable sales, however
declining sales from outside Java brought down total domestic sales
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INDOCEMENT
2013 2014 2015 2016 H1 '16 H1 '17
In thousand tons
Bag Bulk
The importance of bulk sales continues
•
Portion of bag sales is lower than bulk due to declining sales especially in outside Java
for H1 2017
•
Composition of bag vs bulk sales in H11 2017 is 77.0% vs. 23.0%
•
Indocement positions itself as a reliable partner for infrastructure projects providing
quality bulk cement and concrete at timely delivery
• Stronger focus on increasing bulk sales
• High bulk volume in Jakarta
• Indocement benefits from proximity to Jakarta
Bag/Bulk sales composition Jan - Dec
20% 21%
24%
24%
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INDOCEMENT
Continuous focus on cost control with disciplined
spending on promotional activities
• Increase in coal price caused increase in fuel and power cost due to gain in running the most efficient kilns.
• Manufacturing Overhead portion decreases due to cost savings activities including repairs.
• Ramping up of P14 kiln in H1 already starts to deliver savings; full savings expected starting in H2.
• Increase in SG&A relates to additional cost to support end user program and Rajawali promotion.
Fixed Cost Control
–
bio IDR
Composition of Manufacturing Cost as %
Trend
Raw Materials Direct labor Fuel and Power
H1 2015 H1 2016 H1 2017
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INDOCEMENT
Continue in Cost Leadership to maintain a decent margin
in H1 2017
Continue competitive environment, Management focus on taking respective initiatives early on during the year:
Operational Excellence program
Fixed cost reduction program
Managing efficient kiln utilization
INTP EBITDA margin development
New market entrants leading to higher competition and pricing pressure
but Indocement maintains better margin compared to peers
INTP Gross margin development
44.5% 45.0% 44.6% 44.4%
Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec
2015 2016 2017
34.8% 34.5% 34.0% 33.8%
Jan-Mar Jan-Jun Jan-Sep Jan-Dec
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INDOCEMENT
H1 2017 H1 2016
Bio IDR Bio IDR %
Total Sales Volume (thousand tons) 7,932 8,129 -196.1 -2.4%
Domestic Sales Volume (thousand tons) 7,829 7,938 -109.2 -1.4%
Export Sales Volume (thousand tons) 103 190 -86.9 -45.7%
Net Revenues 6,543.7 7,741.9 -1,198.2 -15.5%
Cost of Revenues -4,302.5 -4,507.0 204.5 4.5%
GROSS PROFIT 2,241.2 3,234.9 -993.7 -30.7%
% of Net Revenues 34.2% 41.8%
Operating Expenses -1,352.7 -1,283.7 -69.0 -5.4%
Other Operating Income - Net 6.1 16.7 -10.6 -63.3%
OPERATING INCOME 894.6 1,967.9 -1,073.3 -54.5%
% of Net Revenues 13.7% 25.4%
EBITDA 1,438.8 2,460.6 -1,021.8 -41.5%
% of Net Revenues 22.0% 31.8%
Finance Income - Net 238.0 266.8 -28.8 -10.8%
Equity in Net Earnings of Associated Companies - Net 4.2 12.3 -8.1 -66.2% INCOME BEFORE FINAL TAX AND INCOME TAX EXPENSE 1,136.8 2,247.0 -1,110.2 -49.4%
Final Tax -0.3 -0.4 0.0 11.9%
INCOME BEFORE INCOME TAX EXPENSE 1,136.5 2,246.7 -1,110.2 -49.4% Income Tax Benefit (Expense) - Net -234.7 182.5 -417.2 -228.6%
INCOME FOR THE PERIOD 901.8 2,429.2 -1,527.3 -62.9%
Other Comprehensive Income (Loss) for the Period, Net of Tax 0.7 -6.2 6.9 110.7% TOTAL COMPREHENSIVE INCOME FOR THE PERIOD 902.5 2,422.9 -1,520.4 -62.8%
Variance Description
Bio IDR
Financial Result
Consolidated Statement of Comprehensive Income
• Operating margin reduction from 25.4% to 13.7% contributed by lower revenues by -15.5% due to strong competition on weak
Slide 13 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Balance Sheet
Consolidated Statement of Financial Position
• Outside dividend payment impact, inventories balance increased to anticipate peak volume in 2nd half. Inline with production, payable balance slightly higher.
• Increase in Non-Current Assets compare to same period last year was mainly due to spending in capital expenditures.
Slide 14 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Our P14 in Citeureup has already started
•
Kiln line already fully operational starting end of last year and savings already started with full
benefit expected in H2.
•
Currently its benefit USD 4-5/t.
A new Tiga Roda cement plant, with annual installed production capacity of 4.4 million cement at Citeureup, Bogor - Indonesia. IDR ~6 Trillion investment.
A production line that equipped with modern and energy efficient facility.
Slide 15 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Full Operation in 2017 with combined cycle operation of 1 unit of aeroderivative gas turbine (ADGT) to supply 73 MW (including power supply from Steam Turbine to Citeureup factory); Investment cost: IDR 468.3 Bio and started operation in Oct, 2016
Full Operation in 2017 for 1 Cement and packing floating terminal inPontianak to strengthen our bag and bulk cement supply in West Kalimantan area – Investment Cost: IDR 56.3 Bio and started operation in May 2016 Future Projects:
2 greenfield or brownfield project with each capacity of 2.5 mio ton: one in Central Java (under final Supreme Court appeal process for Environmental permit issues) and one in outside Java: IDR 8.9 Trillion
Study for some potential Cement Terminals in Sumatra: IDR 182.0 Bio16.6 17.1 18.6 20.6 25 30-33
2005 2007 2010 2014 2016 2020/2025
Million Tons
+ 0.6 mt + 1.5 mt + 1.9 mt
+ 4.4 mt + 5-8 mt
Strategically well positioned to capitalize on further demand
Capacity Expansion & Future Investment to participate in
Industry Growth
Cement tank 300 Ton installed in Pontianak Terminal
Slide 16 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Ready Mix Concrete and Aggregates Expansion
• Strengthening Ready-Mix Concrete business particularly high-grade quality in order to meet the increase demand of
infrastructure development in Indonesia.
• Current focus is on infrastructure projects and its domino-effect on development of residential, industrial area and high rise building.
• H1 2017 sales volume decreased by 27.1% due to slowing down construction activities across Indonesia and lower economic growth in general as well as heavy competition.
• Pionirbeton, a subsidiary, is one of market leaders in RMC business.
• Secured concrete market by signing exclusive and long-term
contract of andesite and sand supply from Ketapang and Belitung.
800
4,800 000m3
Slide 17 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
CEMENT MARKET Outlook for 2017
Market Condition
•
National cement consumption growth started
to turn positive and expected to
grow around 4-5% in 2017
(versus negative growth of -0.6% in 2016)
• Consumption in 2017 will increase in line with higher Government’s projects and
some commercial and residential projects after Tax Amnesty, decrease of
mortgage (KPR) interest, loosened regulation on LTV ratio, second mortgage
availability for “off
-
plan” properties, reduction in tax for transfer of ownership,
clarity in property ownership by foreigners, and simplification of regulations.
•
Strong concrete and bulk cement demand anticipated in outside Java and more
spread area in Java due to faster Government’s infrastructure projects in 2017
Expansion in Cement Terminals and Batching Plants are required.
•
Over supply of about 36.9 mio tons in 2016 and up to 39.7 mio tons in 2017 will
change the cement market outlook and we expect the continuing tight
competition among 19 brands from 15 players (from 9 brands and 9 players
previously)
•
Recent hike in coal price will curb the potential further drop in prices in near
future and possible consolidation. Coal price has slide back to $75.5 in June
Slide 18 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Indocement’s Action Plan in 2017
•
Run P14 production (10,000 tpd) in full-swing in 2017 will help to reduce further
production cost by about USD 4-5 per ton
•
Optimize product mix from 13 line of cement production will bring competitive
advantages of Indocement to introduce different types of cement (OPC, PCC,
PPC, TR Rapid, PCC Industry and future products- slag cement)
•
Clinker exports and domestic clinker sales will be done more during
oversupply. (2016: cement export 72,000 ton, clinker export 319,000 ton; target
2017: cement export 168,000 ton, clinker export 333,000 ton)
•
Strengthen our Pull demand in bagged cement segment from end-user
customers and Retail/ Distribution channel to strengthen our Brand, TIGA
RODA Cement
•
Using RAJAWALI brand as fighting brand to get some volume for customer
who perceive cement as “commodity” product and in low
-price cement
segment - in competition with 2
ndtier brands out of new players
•
Develop new business line of prefabricated affordable housing products
“Rumah
Pabrikasi Indocement”
through new subsidiary
Slide 19 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
New Brand of “RAJAWALI” as “fighting brand”
• Through its existing distribution channel, Rajawali was initially launched on Oct 10, 2016 with presence in three cities in 2016 and already available in 30 cities, like: Jakarta, 15 cities in West Java, 6 Cities in Banten, and 8 Cities in Central Java.
Sticky, Strong & More environmentally cement
product!!!
• Quality assurance from Indocement.
• Produced with Indocement standard technology, equipment and materials,
• Semen Rajawali has a very consistent quality.
• Not easy to crack.
• Specially designed for easy builders as it suitable for any building type from
structural work, plaster, acian and others.
• Manufactured with environmentally friendly technology.
•
… Affordable prices
!
Video:
Slide 20 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
End User Program
INDOCEMENT
42 Years Building Indonesia KOKOH
Slide 22 - August 2017 Q2 Results - Indocement
INDOCEMENT
Important Notice
Disclaimer
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Forward-Looking Statements
This presentation includes forward-looking statements, which are based on the expectation or forecast about future events, formed by Indocement after reviewing existing data and research. Such statements involve known and unknown risks including factors such as: (i)Global macroeconomic and geopolitical situations; (ii) Indonesia macroeconomic and geopolitical situation; (iii) Competition from incumbents and new players; (iii)
Changes in laws, regulation, taxation, or accounting standards or practices; (iv) Acquisitions, divestitures, and various business opportunities that we may pursue; (v)Force majeure; (vi)Labor unrest or other similar situations; (vii)Outcome of pending or threatened litigation
Indocement does not give assurance that such outcome will be attained. If you have any specific questions about any legal, financial or tax matter, you should consult your lawyer/financial/tax Consultant or other professional legal services provider.
For further information please contact PT Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa Tbk. Wisma Indocemen, 8th Floor
Jl. Jend. Sudirman Kav 70 - 71 Jakarta 12910, Indonesia Phone : +62 21 2512121
e-mail: investor.relations@indocement.co.id.