1 © OECD/IEA 2018
IEA
Grid Planning and Operation for High VRE Penetration
Indonesia Energy Transition Dialogue Forum 2018, Jakarta, 15 November 2018 Dr. Peerapat Vithayasrichareon, Lead, Modelling and System Reliability
System Integration of Renewables
2 © OECD/IEA 2018
IEA System Integration of Renewables analysis at a glance
• Over 10 years of grid integration work at the IEA
- Grid Integration of Variable Renewables (GIVAR) Programme
- Use of proprietary and external modelling tools for techno-economic grid integration assessment - Global expert network via IEA Technology Collaboration Programmes and GIVAR Advisory Group
- Part of delivering the IEA modernisation strategy
Progress & Tracking
2014 2018
Framework, Technology, Economics
2016 2017 2017
Policy Implementation Grid integration study
2018
3 © OECD/IEA 2018
IEA System Integration of RE analysis and engagement since 2014
Workshops and dissemination events
Regional Latin America training (2014/15/16);
New Delhi/Bangalore (2015);
Bali Clean energy Forum (2015/17);
Beijing (2016/17); Astana (2016);
Johannesburg (2016);
New Delhi (2017);
Mexico City (2017).
Since 2014, IEA System Integration analysis covered over 20 countries in the five continents.
Association and partner countries have been systematically prioritized.
4 © OECD/IEA 2018
Growth of wind and solar raises system integration challenges
In most power systems the share of VRE is expected to double to over 10% in just five years. The growth of VRE raises the system integration issues. Power system flexibility is a key factor.
Source: Renewable 2018: Analysis and Forecasts to 2023
0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500
0-5%
5-10%
10-20%
20-40%
40-50%
>50%
TWh
% VRE in electricity generation
PV generation in 2017 Wind generation in 2017 PV generation in 2023 Wind generation in 2023
5 © OECD/IEA 2018
Different Phases of VRE Integration
Phase Description
1 VRE capacity is not relevant at the all-system level
2 VRE capacity becomes noticeable to the system operator
3 Flexibility becomes relevant with greater swings in the supply/demand balance 4 Stability becomes relevant. VRE capacity covers nearly 100% of demand at
certain times
5 Structural surpluses emerge;
electrification of other sectors becomes relevant
6 Bridging seasonal deficit periods and supplying non-electricity applications;
seasonal storage and synthetic fuels
6 © OECD/IEA 2018
Net load comparison for different phases of VRE integration
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000 40 000
01:00 03:00 05:00 07:00 09:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00
MW
Demand VRE production
Demand and VRE production in a typical week day, Italy, 2010
No difference in net load (Phase 1 of VRE integration)
0 5 000 10 000 15 000 20 000 25 000 30 000 35 000
01:00 03:00 05:00 07:00 09:00 11:00 13:00 15:00 17:00 19:00 21:00 23:00
MW
Demand VRE production Net Demand
Demand and VRE production in a typical week day, Italy, 2016
Flexibility is key to manage variability in net load
(Phase 3 of VRE integration)
7 © OECD/IEA 2018
VRE deployment phase in selected countries
Each VRE deployment phase can span a wide range of VRE share of generation; there is no single point at which a new phase is entered
VRE share in annual electricity generation and system integration phase, 2017
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60% % VRE generation
Phase 1 - No relevant impact on system integration Phase 2 - Drawing on existing system flexibility
Phase 3 - Investing in flexibility Phase 4 - Requiring advanced technologies to ensure reliability
Source: Renewable 2018: Analysis and Forecasts to 2023
8 © OECD/IEA 2018
Differentiating flexibility requirements by time horizon
Flexibility is needed across different time scales from sub-seconds to years.
Flexibility type Short-term (ST) flexibility Time-scale Sub-seconds to
seconds Seconds to
minutes Minutes to hours
Issue Ensure system stability (voltage and frequency)
Short term frequency control
Meeting more frequent, rapid and less predictable changes in the supply /
demand balance,
Medium term (MT) flexibility
Hours to days Determining
operation schedule in hour- and day- ahead.
Long-term (LT) flexibility
Days to
months Months to years Addressing
longer periods of VRE surplus or deficit
Balancing seasonal and inter-annual availability of VRE generation with demand
9 © OECD/IEA 2018
Unlocking flexibility using different flexibility resources
Grid infrastructure
Power system flexibility resources
Grids Generation Storage Demand shaping
Key messages on system integration
• No problems at low shares of VRE, if basic rules are followed
• Very high shares of VRE are technically possible
• Reaching high shares cost-effectively calls for a system-wide transformation
The role of different flexibility resources across different timescales (and VRE phases)
• Grid infrastructure – FACTS devices, special protection schemes (for ST); DLR and cross-border lines (for MT).
• Generation – Inertia, droop, AGC (for ST); Cycling and quick start (for MT);
• Storage – Battery (ST); Pumped storage hydro (for MT and LT), Hydrogen production (for LT)
• Demand shaping – DSR, demand side options (e.g. water heaters, A/C with cold storage) (for ST);
smart meters (for MT); sector coupling, synthetic fuels (for LT)
10 © OECD/IEA 2018
Flexibility options for different phases of VRE integration
Flexibility resources can mitigate the challenges from VRE integration in different phases and allowing the system to integrate more VRE
Plant retrofits Advanced plant design Flexibility from
VRE
Improved grid infrastructure Special protection
schemes Advanced technology to increase stability
Large industrial Commercial and
residential Peer-to-peer
trading to enable transition Policy, regulatory and market frameworks Institutional roles and responsibilities;
Phases 1 and 2 can usually be managed through existing resources and operational practices
Reservoir hydro Battery storage Long-term storage
Medium-term storage
Phase 1 Phase 2 Phase 3 Phase 4 Phase 5 Phase 6
Power Plants Grids DSR Storage
Key flexible resource examples to enable transition
Improved operations e.g. forecasting, real time monitoring and control, faster dispatch
Operation
11 © OECD/IEA 2018
Example of measures to integrate VRE – power plant flexibility
Power plants are an important source of flexibility,
evident in countries such as Germany, Denmark, Spain, the United States Generation pattern of coal plants in Germany, May 2016
0 2 000 4 000 6 000 8 000 10 000 12 000 14 000 16 000
01 May 02 May 03 May 04 May 05 May 06 May 07 May
MW
12 © OECD/IEA 2018
System friendly deployment of VRE
• Measures that make the deployment of VRE more accommodating to the system
- Technology mix – outputs from different technologies can compliment one another - Geographical spread – dispersal of VRE plants can smooth the variability
- System services – VRE plants that can provide system services (frequency, voltage, etc.)
VRE output and the benefit of geographical spread, South Africa
13 © OECD/IEA 2018
Technical
Electricity
System transformation requires holistic approach
• Institutional – defining roles and responsibilities
• Economic –market design, regulation, planning
frameworks
• Technical – operation of power system, safeguarding reliability
Policies, markets and regulatory frameworks link technical, economic and institutional aspects
Institutional
Information & coordination
Economic
Capital Policy, market
and regulatory frameworks
14 © OECD/IEA 2018
Power sector planning needs to be more integrated
• Power sector planning traditionally focused on developing supply sources and infrastructure to meet demand
• But the landscape of the power sector is changing due to
- Uptake of VRE, DER
- Demand side participation
- Electrification of transport and heat
• Implications of VRE, DER, should be taken into consideration in power sector planning
Power sector planning Generation
Transmission network
Distribution network Electrification
of other sectors DER
15 © OECD/IEA 2018
A paradigm shift - local grids in future energy systems
• High uptake of DERs are changing the way local grids are planned and operated
• Successful transition rests on changes in three dimensions
- Technical – more dynamic (bi-directional) energy flows require changes in system operations - Economic – High uptake of DERs raise the need for retail tariff reform. Consideration of time
and place can foster greater flexibility
- Institutional - roles and responsibilities are changing. Better co-ordination between local grid and transmission system operators is key
Future
Data flow Decentralisation
Digitalization
Past / present Generation Transmission Distribution Customer
Energy flow
16 © OECD/IEA 2018
Summary
• The growth of VRE raises system integration challenges and power system transformation
- Technical, economic, institutional and policy, market and regulatory aspects
• The integration of VRE can be categorised into six different Phases
- The Phases approach could be used for wider energy planning to ensure the smoothest and most cost-effective rollout of VRE.
• Power system flexibility is essential with increasing VRE penetration
- Flexibility requirements depend on the timescale and VRE integration phases
• System operation and planning are key factors for integrating VRE
- Better system operation and integrated planning can enhance system flexibility
- Need a clear vision of the amount and type of generation capacity and other system assets (network, storage) that will be deployed over time.
18 © OECD/IEA 2018
Electricity generation growth by fuel
Renewable generation leads the growth of electricity among different technologies. Expansion of fossil fuel is expected to decline considerably.
Source: Renewable 2018: Analysis and Forecasts to 2023
- 500 0 500 1 000 1 500 2 000 2 500 3 000 3 500 4 000 4 500
2018-23 2012-17 2006-11
Generation growth (TWh)
Year
Coal and gas Wind Solar PV Hydropower Bioenergy Nuclear Others
19 © OECD/IEA 2018
Integrated power sector modelling is key
• Integrated power sector modelling is key to assess system flexibility
• Traditionally, power sector modelling tools/studies are not integrated: cap expansion;
Production cost modelling (PCM); technical
• With increasing VRE, there is a need to prioritise and integrate power sector modelling - Linking the modelling tools to the timescale and VRE phases (and penetration)
Production cost modelling (PCM)
• Unit commitment and economic dispatch (UCED)
• Nodal representation of transmission
• Simulation of wind and solar outputs
• Flexibility assessment (different resources)
Phase VRE 2-3
Power system flexibility
Time-scale: Minutes to hours
Technical studies
• Load flow analysis (static)
• Dynamics stability: Transient, small-signal, frequency, voltage
Phase 4VRE
Power system stability
Time-scale: Sub-seconds to minutes
Long-term power sector planning
• Multi-year optimal generation portfolios and transmission plan
• Capacity value of different technologies
• Scheduling, Adequacy
• Demand forecast High
detail
20 © OECD/IEA 2018
Better system operation
Make better use of what you have already!
• VRE forecasting
• Better system operations:
- Dynamic generation scheduling Update schedules close to real time - Dynamic generation dispatch
Short dispatch intervals - Dynamic use of the grid
Update interconnection schedules close to real time;
sub-hourly scheduling
- Reward flexible operation Make payments based on what is helpful for the system, not just MWh
6 7 8 9
Capacity (MW)
Time (hours)
Actual load curve
Load schedule - 15 minutes Load schedule - 60 minutes Balancing need 15 min schedule Balancing need 60 min schedule
Impact of scheduling interval on reserve requirements, illustration
21 © OECD/IEA 2018
Integrated planning frameworks
• Better integrated and co-ordinated planning can help identify appropriate options for future power systems
- Allowing for appropriate investment decisions to be made on flexible resources
Integrated planning incorporating
demand-side
Integrated generation and network planning
Cross-sectoral integration (between power and other sectors)
Inter-regional planning across
jurisdictions
22 © OECD/IEA 2018
Examples of integrated planning
• Integrated planning incorporating demand response
- PacificCorp in the US has integrated energy efficiency and demand response into power sector planning through Integrated Resource Planning
• Integrated generation and network planning
- Examples in Texas, South Africa
- Managing two-way flows in the future needs coordination between transmission and distribution planning
• Integrated planning between the power sector and other sectors
- ENTSO-E (electricity) and ENTSO-G (Gas) has been encouraged to coordinate the 1-year electricity and gas network plans
23 © OECD/IEA 2018
Co-ordinated transmission network planning in Europe
• ENTSO-E publishes an updated Ten-Year Network Development Plan (TYNDP) every 2 years
- Overview of transmission expansion plan in the next 10-15 years
• TNYDP is a coordinated planning initiative
• TNYDP 2016 analyses scenarios with RE penetration 45%-60% in 2030
- Identified 100 possible bottlenecks if no reinforcement solutions
Source: ENTSO-E (2016), Ten-Year Network Development Plan 2016.
