CASH FLOW BUDGET WORKSHEET SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN 2005 (ASSUMES 9% CHANGE IN RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS)

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CASH FLOW BUDGET WORKSHEET

SENSITIVITY ANALYSIS IN 2005

(ASSUMES 9% CHANGE IN RECEIPTS AND DISBURSEMENTS)

Pessimistic

Expected

Optimistic

Cash Flow

DIRECTIONS: Insert your cash flow information in the middle column

entitled "EXPECTED CASH FLOW"

Beginning Cash Balance

0

0 Cash Inflows (Income):

Sales International Market

2,516,213,700

2,765,070,000

3,013,926,300

Sales Domestic Market

567,567,000

623,700,000

679,833,000

Total Cash Inflows

3,083,780,700

3,388,770,000

3,693,759,300

Available Cash Balance

3,083,780,700

3,388,770,000

3,693,759,300

Cash Outflows (Expenses):

Pesticide

234,780,768

215,395,200

196,009,632

Fertilizer

234,780,768

215,395,200

196,009,632

Deisel Fuel

234,780,768

215,395,200

196,009,632

Packaging

313,041,024

287,193,600

261,346,176

Wages

143,880,000

132,000,000

120,120,000

Export Cost

43,164,000

39,600,000

36,036,000

Subtotal

1,204,427,328

1,104,979,200

1,005,531,072

Other Cash Out Flows:

Salary

115,104,000

105,600,000

96,096,000

Utilities

35,970,000

33,000,000

30,030,000

Maintenance

143,880,000

132,000,000

120,120,000

Transportation

86,328,000

79,200,000

72,072,000

Miscellaneous

35,970,000

33,000,000

30,030,000

Subtotal

417,252,000

382,800,000

348,348,000

Total Cash Outflows

1,621,679,328

1,487,779,200

1,353,879,072

Ending Cash Balance

1,462,101,372

1,900,990,800

2,339,880,228

0.474126248

Kesimpulan :

-

Dari analisa sensitivitas yang dilakukan dapat dilihat bahwa walaupun tingkat inflasi

pada tahun 2005 sangat berfluktuatif, namun PT. BTL diproyeksikan mendapat profit

antara 47% sampai 63% dari total penjualan

-

Asumsi 9 % digunakan berdasarkan perhitungan rata-rata inflasi bulanan selama

semester I tahun 2005

-

Kenaikan BBM sudah diperhitungkan juga dalam aliran kas, dimana dampaknya

akan sangat dirasakan pada pembelian bahan baku, biaya produksi, biaya

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0.560967785

0.633468518

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Asumsi

1. 2nd year adalah tahun 2004

2. Produksi setiap bulan 500,000 stem, setiap tahunnya naik 50 %

3. Penjualan setiap bulan 450,000 stem, setiap tahunnya naik 50 %

4. 50,000 stem diasumsikan produk cacat (rusak) sehingga tidak bisa di jual di pasar lokal & domestik

5. Total yang diekspor setiap bulannya =

315,000

6. Total yang dijual di pasar lokal setiap bulannya =

135,000

7. Harga jual ekspor USD$ 0.16 per stem, dengan kurs Rp 9,500 =

1,520

8. Harga jual lokal = Rp

800

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LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BTL

Januari Februari Maret April May June July August September October November December Total

NET INVESTMENT 7,000,000,000 PENERIMAAN Ekspor 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 478,800,000 5,745,600,000 Lokal 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 108,000,000 1,296,000,000 Sub TOTAL 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 586,800,000 7,041,600,000 PENGELUARAN Pestisida 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 360,000,000 Pupuk 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 360,000,000 Solar 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 30,000,000 360,000,000 Pengemasan 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 40,000,000 480,000,000 Wages 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 20,000,000 240,000,000 Biaya ekspor 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 72,000,000

Total Biaya Produksi 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 156,000,000 1,872,000,000

Biaya produksi per batang 347

Gross Margin 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 430,800,000 5,169,600,000

b. Biaya Operasional

Gaji Pegawai 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 45,000,000 540,000,000 Utilities (Listrik, Telepon, ATK, dll) 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 60,000,000 Pemeliharaan 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 120,000,000

Transportasi 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 5,000,000 60,000,000

Biaya lain-lain 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 10,000,000 120,000,000

Total Biaya Operasional 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 75,000,000 900,000,000

EBITDA 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 355,800,000 4,269,600,000 Depreciation & Amorti 29,000,000 49,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 708,000,000 EBIT 326,800,000 306,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 292,800,000 3,561,600,000 ROI

LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BOTANI TROPICAL LESTARI (DIVISI BUNGA KRISAN) Periode Januari - Desember 2003

a. Biaya Produksi

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LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BTL

Januari Februari Maret April May June July August September October November December

PENERIMAAN Ekspor 718,200,000 718,200,000 718,200,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000.00 1,101,240,000.00 1,101,240,000 1,101,240,000.00 1,101,240,000.00 Lokal 162,000,000 162,000,000 162,000,000 248,400,000 248,400,000 248,400,000 248,400,000 248,400,000.00 248,400,000.00 248,400,000 248,400,000.00 248,400,000.00 Sub TOTAL 880,200,000 880,200,000 880,200,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 1,349,640,000 PENGELUARAN Pestisida 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 Pupuk 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 Solar 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 54,000,000 Pengemasan 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 72,000,000 Wages 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 36,000,000 Biaya ekspor 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000 10,800,000

Total Biaya Produksi 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000 280,800,000

Biaya produksi per batang

Gross Margin 599,400,000 599,400,000 599,400,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000 1,068,840,000

b. Biaya Operasional

Gaji Pegawai 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 49,500,000 Utilities (Listrik, Telepon, ATK, dll) 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 6,000,000 Pemeliharaan 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 Transportasi 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 9,000,000 Biaya lain-lain 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000 18,000,000

Total Biaya Operasional 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000 100,500,000

EBITDA 498,900,000 498,900,000 498,900,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 968,340,000 Depreciation & Amorti 29,000,000 49,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 EBIT 469,900,000 449,900,000 435,900,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 905,340,000 ROI

Asumsi :

1. Lahan yang ditanam bunga krisan bertambah, dari 1,25 Hektar 2,5 Hektar pada 2004 6.Harga Jual Ekspor US$ 0,16 per batang, dengan kurs Rp 9,500

2. Produksi Ekspor bulan Jan - Mar = Rp 718,200,000 / bulan

Produksi awal = 500,000 batang / bulan untuk lahan seluas 1,25 hektar pada tahun 2003 Ekspor bulan Apr - Dec = Rp 1,101,240,000 / bulan Peningkatan Produksi = 250,000 batang / tahun

Penambahan Produksi = 400,000 batang / bulan mulai dari bulan April sampai bulan berikutnya

karena ada penambahan lahan seluas 1 Hektar (80%) pada tahun 200 7.Harga Jual Pasar Lokal Rp 800 per batang

Total Produksi = 1,150,000 batang / bulan mulai bulan april Untuk bulan Jan - Mar = Rp 162,000,000 / bulan

3. Penjualan untuk bulan Apr - Dec = Rp 248,400,000 / bulan

Penjualan bulan Jan - Mar = 675,000 batang / bulan dg asumsi 10 % produk cacat yang tidak bisa dijual Penjualan bulan Apr - Dec = 1,035,000 batang / bulan dg asumsi 10 % produk cacat yang tidak bisa dijual 4. Ekspor

Ekspor bulan Jan - Mar = 472,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 70 % dr total penjualan ≈ Ekspor bulan Apr - Dec = 724,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 70 % dr total penjualan 5. Pasar Lokal

LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BOTANI TROPICAL LESTARI (DIVISI BUNGA KRISAN)

Periode Januari - Desember 2004

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Untuk bulan Jan - Mar = 202,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 30 % dr total penjualan Untuk bulan Apr - Dec = 310,500 batang / bulan dg asumsi 30 % dr total penjualan

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Total 12,065,760,000 2,721,600,000 14,787,360,000 648,000,000 648,000,000 648,000,000 864,000,000 432,000,000 129,600,000 3,369,600,000 624 11,417,760,000 594,000,000 72,000,000 216,000,000 108,000,000 216,000,000 1,206,000,000 10,211,760,000 708,000,000 9,503,760,000 L8

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PROYEKSI LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BTL

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Total NET INVESTMENT PENERIMAAN Ekspor 1,651,860,000 2,477,790,000 3,716,685,000 5,575,027,500 8,362,541,250 21,783,903,750 Lokal 372,600,000 558,900,000 838,350,000 1,257,525,000 1,886,287,500 4,913,662,500 Sub TOTAL 2,024,460,000 3,036,690,000 4,555,035,000 6,832,552,500 10,248,828,750 26,697,566,250 PENGELUARAN Pestisida 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 410,062,500 1,068,187,500 Pupuk 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 410,062,500 1,068,187,500 Solar 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 410,062,500 1,068,187,500 Pengemasan 108,000,000 162,000,000 243,000,000 364,500,000 546,750,000 1,424,250,000 Wages 54,000,000 81,000,000 121,500,000 182,250,000 273,375,000 712,125,000 Biaya ekspor 16,200,000 24,300,000 36,450,000 54,675,000 82,012,500 213,637,500 Total Biaya Produksi 421,200,000 631,800,000 947,700,000 1,421,550,000 2,132,325,000 5,554,575,000

Biaya produksi per batang 1,029

Gross Margin 1,603,260,000 2,404,890,000 3,607,335,000 5,411,002,500 8,116,503,750 21,142,991,250 b. Biaya Operasional

Gaji Pegawai 54,450,000 59,895,000 65,884,500 72,472,950 79,720,245 332,422,695 Utilities (Listrik, Telepon, ATK, dll) 18,000,000 27,000,000 40,500,000 60,750,000 91,125,000 237,375,000 Pemeliharaan 21,600,000 32,400,000 48,600,000 72,900,000 109,350,000 284,850,000 Transportasi 10,800,000 16,200,000 24,300,000 36,450,000 54,675,000 142,425,000 Biaya lain-lain 21,600,000 32,400,000 48,600,000 72,900,000 109,350,000 284,850,000 Total Biaya Operasional 126,450,000 167,895,000 227,884,500 315,472,950 444,220,245 1,281,922,695

EBITDA 1,476,810,000 2,236,995,000 3,379,450,500 5,095,529,550 7,672,283,505 19,861,068,555 Depreciation & Amorti 29,000,000 49,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 63,000,000 267,000,000 EBIT 1,447,810,000 2,187,995,000 3,316,450,500 5,032,529,550 7,609,283,505 19,594,068,555 ROI

Asumsi :

PROYEKSI LAPORAN ARUS KAS PT. BOTANI TROPICAL LESTARI (DIVISI BUNGA KRISAN) Periode 2005 - 2009

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