Ekonomi dan Keuangan Indonesia Volume XLVII Nomor 3, 1999
Kausalitas antara
I
Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia^
1971 -1997
Masdjidin Siregar
A b s t r a c t
I
The objective of this paper is to analyze the causal relationship between export and economic groioth in Indonesia for the period of 1971-97. The method used in this study is almost similar to previous studies carried out by Yung and Marshall (1985) and Dodaro (1993). It is concluded from the present study that
there is no causal relationship between export and economic groioth, at least in the period under study. Nonetheless, combining this conclusion with those of previous studies, one may infer that export does affect economic growth at least for the first fifteen years of development in Indonesia (1971-85). Such effects,
however, would be getting weaker and weaker afterward. Since the current economic crisis could be considered as the starting point for another neu economic development, export promotion seems to he a reasonable policy. Unde • the current exchange rate regime, exports of low-import content commodities including agricultural commodities, have to be promoted.
1. PENDAHULUAN
S e j a k t a h u n t u j u h p u l u h a n b a n y a k p e n e l i t i e k o n o m i m e l a l u k a n a n a l i s i s u n t u k m e n j a w a b a p a k a b s u a t u n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g s e b a i k n y a m e l a k u k a n k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k s p o r a t a u s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r a g a r e k o n o m i n e g a r a t e r s e b u t d a p a t t u m b u h l e b i h c e p a t . K e b a n y a k a n h a s i l a n a l i s i s m e r e k a m e n y a r a n k a n k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k p o r d a r i p a d a k e b i j a k a n s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r . B e r d a s a r k a n p e n g a l a m a n I n d o n e s i a , p e r k e m b a n g a n e k s p o r t e m y a t a t i d a k s e l a l u s e i r i n g d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , p a l i n g t i d a k p a d a p e r i o d e t e r t e n t u . W a l a u p u n p e r e k o n o m i a n I n d o n e s i a t e r u s t u m b u h s e b e l u m m e n g a l a m i k r i s i s e k o n o m i , n i l a i e k s p o r p e m a h m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n t e m t a m a k e t i k a n e g e r i i n i t i d a k l a g i d a p a t m e n g a n d a l k a n b a n y a k d a r i e k p o r m i n y a k a l a m d a n g a s b u m i B e r s a m a a n d e n g a n p e n i n g k a t a n P D B t e r s e b u t , e k s p o r n e g e r i i n i j u g a t e r u s m e n i n g k a t p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 1 - 1 9 8 1 , t e t a p i k e m u d i a n m e n g a l a m i p e n u m n a n s a m p a i k e t i t i k n a d i r p a d a t a h u n 1 9 8 5 . P e m b a h a n i n i t e r j a d i s e i r i n g d e n g a n p e r a n a n e k s p o r m i n y a k a l a m d a n g a s b u m i . M e n j e l a n g t a h u n 1 9 8 5 , e k s p o r n o n m i g a s d i p r o m o s i k a n s e h i n g g a s e j a k t a h u n i t u e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a d a l a m h a r g a k o n s t a n t e m s m e n i n g k a t s a m p a i n e g e r i i n i m e n g a l a m i k r i s i s m o n e t e r p a d a t a h u n 1 9 9 7 . D a l a m m e n g h a d a p i m a s a l a h k r i s i s e k o n o m i s e k a r a n g i n i , I n d o n e s i a d i h a d a p k a n p a d a p e r s o a l a n b a g a i m a n a m e n i n g k a t k a n p e r t u m b u h a n d a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a y a n g s u d a h s a n g a t m e n g k h a w a t i r k a n . B a n y a k p a k a r m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a d a l a m k e a d a a n n i l a i t u k a r m p i a h y a n g l e m a h s e k a r a n g i n i , I n d o n e s i a s e b a i k n y a k e m b a l i m e n g a n d a l k a n e k p o r k o m o d i t a s t r a d i s i o n a l t e m t a m a h a s i l - h a s i l p e r t a n i a n , p e r k e b u n a n , d a n p e r i k a n a n k a r e n a s e k t o r - s e k t o r t e r s e b u t t i d a k m e m e r l u k a n i m p o r b a h a n b a k u k e c u a l i m o d a l . S e m e n t a r a p e n d a p a t t e r s e b u t p e r l u d i p e r h a t i k a n d a l a m k e b i j a k a n e k o n o m i n e g e r i i n i , p e r t a n y a a n l a i n s e k i t a r p e n i n g k a t a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a m a s i h b e l u m t e r j a w a b . S e k t o r - s e k t o r t r a d i s i o n a l m u n g k i n d a p a t m e n i n g k a t k a n P D B d a n e k s p o r s a m p a i b a t a s - b a t a s t e r t e n t u , n a m u n s e k t o r - s e k t o r t e r s e b u t t i d a k d a p a t d i h a r a p k a n b a n y a k d a l a m p e n i n g k a t a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a . P e n a m b a h a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a s e l a m a i n i d i d u g a b a n y a k d i b e r i k a n o l e h s e k t o r m a n u f a k t u r y a n g s a n g a t d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h p a s a r d o m e s t i k d a n e k s p o r . S e m e n t a r a d u g a a n i t u 3 1 4Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97 p e r l u d i t e l i t i p a d a k e s e m p a t a n b e r i k u t n y a , m a k a l a h i n i t e r l e b i h d a h u l u l e b i h m e m u s a t k a n p e r h a t i a n p a d a h u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . W a l a u p u n s u d a h b a n y a k a n a l i s i s y a n g d i l a k u k a n s e j a k t a h u n t u j u h p u l u h a n m e n y a r a n k a n a g a r n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g m e l a k s a n a k a n k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k s p o r , n a m u n J u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) m e r a g u k a n k e a b s a h a n export promotion hyphothesis t e r s e b u t k a r e n a d u a a l a s a n . P e r t a m a , b a n y a k h a s i l a n a l i s i s y a n g a k h i m y a m e n d u k u n g k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k s p o r k e t i k a i t u h a n y a d i d a s a r k a n p a d a d a t a s i l a n g [cross section) a n t a r n e g a r a , b u k a n d a t a s e r i e s m a s i n g - m a s i n g n e g a r a . K e d u a , k e b a n y a k a n a n a l i s i s e k o n o m e t r i k m e r e g r e s i k a n p e u b a h p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p p e u b a h e k s p o r t a n p a m a m p u m e l i h a t h u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . A d a 4 k e m u n g k i n a n h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s t e r s e b u t , y i a i t u ( i ) p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n P D B , ( i i ) P D B m e m p e n g a m h i e k s p o r , ( i i i ) e k s p o r d a n P D B s a l i n g b e r p e n g a r u h , d a n ( i v ) P D B d a n e k s p o r t i d a k s a l i n g b e r p e n g a r u h . [
2. M E T O D E ANALISIS
B e r b a g a i m a c a m m e t o d a a n a l i s i s t e l a h d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n g e t a h u i h u b u n g a n a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n e k s p o r . M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 7 ) a d a l a h s a l a h s e o r a n g y a n g m e n c o b a m e n e r a n g k a n p e n g a r u h e k s p o r t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . D e n g a n m a k s u d i n g i n m e m p e r b a i k i k o n s e p d a n m e t o d a y a n g d i g u n a k a n p e n d a h u l u n y a , M i c h a e l y m e l a k u k a n u j i k o r e l a s i S p e a r m a n a n t a r a ( x - p ) d a n ( f - p ) , d i m a n a x a d a l a h t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r p e r t a h u n , p a d a l a h t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n p e n d u d u k p e r t a h u n , d a n f a d a l a h t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n k o m p o n e n o u t p u t s e l a i n e k s p o r p e r t a h u n . D a r i u j i t e r s e b u t M i c h a e l y m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a u j i y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n a d a n y a k o r e l a s i a n t a r a t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n p r o d u k n a s i o n a l d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r t i d a k m e m p u n y a i k o n s e k w e n s i a p a p u n . A l a s a n n y a a d a l a h k a r e n a e k s p o r i t u s e n d i r i m e r u p a k a n b a g i a n d a r i p r o d u k n a s i o n a l m a k a k o r e l a s i p o s i t i f a n t a r a k e d u a p e u b a h t e r s e b u t t i d a k t e r e l a k k a n . D a l a m h a l i n i H e l l e r d a n P o r t e r ( 1 9 7 8 ) j u g a s e p e n d a p a t d e n g a n M i c h a e l y . U n t u k m e n g k a j i l e b i h j a u h , M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 7 ) m e n y a r a n k a n a n a l i s i s k o r e l a s i a n t a r a t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n o u t p u t p e r k a p i t a ( y - p ) d e n g a nt i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n p a n g s a e k s p o r t e r h a d a p output ( x - y ) . D a l a m h a l i n i H e l l e r d a n P o r t e r ( 1 9 7 8 ) m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a k r i t i k M i c h a e l y j u g a b e r l a k u p u l a i m t u k d i r i n y a s e n d i r i . A l a s a n n y a a d a l a h s e t i a p p e r u b a h a n p e r t u m b u h a n p a n g s a e k s p o r d a l a m o u t p u t a k a n d i s e r t a i d e n g a n p e r u b a h a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n output p e r k a p i t a d e n g a n a r a h y a n g s a m a w a l a u p u n h a l i t u t i d a k m e r u b a h t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n k o m p o n e n l a i n n y a d a l a m output ( f - p ) . H e l l e r d a n P o r t e r ( 1 9 7 8 ) m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a k o r e l a s i y a n g l e b i h t e p a t a d a l a h a n t a r a t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r ( x - p ) d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n k o m p o n e n b u k a n e k s p o r d a l a m output ( f - p ) . M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 9 ) b e r p e n d a p a t b a h w a u j i i n i a b s a h n a m u n l e b i h b e r g u n a u n t u k j a n g k a p e n d e k p a d a s a a t k e n d a i a p e r m i n t a a n m e n e n t u k a n p e r u b a h a n o u t p u t d a r i p a d a u n t u k j a n g k a p a n j a n g y a n g m e n y a n g k u t p e n g e m b a n g a n k a p a s i t a s p r i d u k t i f . H a s i l d a r i u j i k o r e l a s i i n i m e n d u k u n g t e m u a n M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 7 ) y a n g m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a k e t e r k a i t a n a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i a k a n t e r l i h a t m a n a k a l a s u a t u n e g a r a t e l a h m e l a m p a u i s u a t u t a h a p a n t e r t e n t u d a l a m p e m b a n g u n . H e l l e r d a n P o r t e r j u g a m e n g e r i t i k k e s i m p u l a n M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 7 ) y a n g m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a k o r e l a s i a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n o u t p u t t a n p a k o m p o n e n e k s p o r h a n y a n y a t a p a d a n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g y a n g t e l a h l e b i h m a j u t a p i p a n g s a e k s p o m y a r e n d a h . M e n u r u t H e l l e r d a n P o r t e r , k e s i m p u l a n M i c h a e l y i t u t i m b u l h a n y a k a r e n a 7 d a r i 4 1 n e g a r a y a n g d i k a j i s u d a h m e n g a l a m i p e r k e m b a n g a n y a n g r e l a t i f t i n g g i p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 5 0 - 7 3 . A p a y a n g d i p e r d e b a t k a n a n t a r a d u a p i h a k t e r s e b u t p e r l u d i k a j i s e c a r a m e n d a l a m u n t u k k a s u s I n d o n e s i a . B a l l a s a ( 1 9 7 8 ) m e n g g u n a k a n k o e f i s i e n k o r e l a s i S p e a r m a n d a n a n a l i s i s r e g r e s i u n t u k d a t a d a r i b e r b a g a i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . S e p e r t i y a r i g t e l a h d i l a k u k a n o l e h M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 7 ) , B a l l a s a m e n g g u n a k a n k o r e l a s i S p e a r m a n u n t u k p e r i o d e 1 9 6 0 - 6 6 , 1 9 6 6 - 1 9 7 3 , d a n p e r i o d e g a b u n g a n 1 9 6 0 - 7 3 . A n a l i s i s k o r e l a s i i t u k e m u d i a n d i l a n j u t k a n d e n g a n a n a l i s i s r e g r e s i y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n 6 m o d e l p e r s a m a a n r e g r e s i . M a s i n g -m a s i n g p e r s a -m a a n -m e n g g i -m a k a n p e u b a h G N P , t e n a g a k e r j a , e k s p o r , n e r a c a b e r j a l a n , d a n p e m b e n t u k a n m o d a l y a n g d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m b e r b a g a i b e n t u k r a t i o a t a u p r o p o r s i . S e b a g a i c o n t o h , G N P d a n t e n a g a k e r j a d i n y a t a k a n s e b a g a i r a s i o p e r u b a h a n a b s o l u t a n t a r a t a h u n t e r m i n a l d e n g a n t a h u n a w a l d i b a g i d e n g a n t a h u n a w a l . E k s p o r d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m n h a i y a n g b e r l a k u a t a u d i n y a t a k a n d a l a m d a y a b e l i y a n g d i t u r u n k a n d a r i 3 1 6
Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97 h a s i l b a g i n i l a i d o l a r d e n g a n i n d e k n i l a i p e r u n i t p a d a e k s p o r m a n u f a k t u r . D a r i a n a l i s i s k o r e l a s i d i a t a s , B a l a s s a ( 1 9 7 8 ) m e n y i m p u l k a n b a h w a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n output c e n d e r u n g m e n i n g k a t s e j a l a n d e n g a n p e r k e m b a n g a n s e k t o r m a n u f a k t u r . D a r i a n a l i s i s r e g r e s i d i s i m p u i k a n b a h w a k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k p o r l e b i h m e m b e r i k a n m a n f a a t d a r i p a d a k e b i j a k a n s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r . D a l a m m a k a l a h t e r s e b u t B a l a s s a b e l u m m e m p e l a j a r i k e m u n g k i n a n h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s s e b a l i k n y a , y a i t u a p a k a b p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i b e r p e n g a r u h t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . W i l l i a m s o n ( 1 9 7 8 ) m e n g a d a p t a s i m o d e l p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i y a n g d i k e n a l d e n g a n n a m a Chenery-S trout two-gap model u n t u k d i t e r a p k a n p a d a a n a l i s i s y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n d a t a s e r i e s d a n d a t a s i l a n g d a r i 1 9 n e g a r a A m e r i k a L a t i n . P e n e k a n a n d a r i m o d e l i n i t i d a k t e r l e t a k p a d a d a m p a k g a n d a d a r i e k s p o r t e r h a d a p P D B t e t a p i l e b i h t e r l e t a k p a d a p e n t i n g n y a i m p o r u n t u k m e m a s o k b a r a n g - b a r a n g m o d a l y a n g d i p e r l u k a n u n t u k p e r t u m b u h a n P D B . D e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n e k s p o r d i p a n a n g s e b a g a i c a r a u n t u k m e m b i a y a i i m p o r y a n g d i p e r l u k a n d a n j u g a s e b a g a i c a r a u n t u k m e n d o r o n g t i n g k a t i n v e s t a s i d o m e s t i k m e l a l u i p e n g a r u h p o s t i f n y a t e r h a d a a p t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n t a b u n g a n d o m e s t i k . M o d e l t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i r i n g k a s s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : E k s p o r ( E X P ) a r u s i n v e s t a s i a s i n g ( A I A ) , d a n a r u s m o d a l a s i n g l a i n n y a ( M A L ) m e m p e n g a r u h i t i n g k a t i m p o r b a r a n g ( T I B ) d a n i n v e s t a s i d o m e s t i k b r u t o ( I D B ) . K e d u a p e u b a h t e r a k h i r i n i a k h i m y a m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t a m b a h a n p e r t u m b u h a n ( P D B ) P e r s a m a a n r e g r e s i n y a d a p a t d i n y a t a k a n s e b a g a i P P D B = f {peubah dummi n e g a r a , E X P , A I A , M A L ) . H a s i l a n a l i s i s y a n g m e n g g a b u n g k a n d a t a s e r i e s d a n d a t a s i l a n g k e m u d i a n d i b a n d i n g k a n d e n g a n h a s i l d a r i m o d e l y a n g d i m o d i f i k a s i u n t u k d a t s i l a n g s a j a . K e d u a m o d e l t e r s e b u t m e r e g r e s i k a n k e n a i k a n P D B ( s e b a g a i p e u b a h y a n g d i k e m b a n g k a n ) d e n g a n b e b e r a p a p e u b a h y a n g m e n e r a n g k a n , s e p e r t i t i n g k a t e k s p o r ( E K S ) , a r u s i n v e s t a s i s w a s t a a s i n g ( A I A ) , d a n a r u s m o d a l a s i n g l a i n n y a ( M A L ) . D i s i m p u i k a n b a h w a m o d e l k e d u a m e m p e r k u a t m o d e l p e r t m a y a n g s a m a - s a m m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b a h w a p e n i n g k a t a n P D B d i A m e r i k a L a t i n p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 6 0 - 7 4 s a n g a t n y a t a d i p e n g a r u h i o l e h t i n g k a t e k s p o r . A n a l i s i s y a n g d i l a k u k a n W i l l i a m s o n i n i j u g a b e l u m s a m p a i k e p a d a p e n d a l a m a n t e n t a n g h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a P D B d a n e k s p o r .
U n t u k t u j u a n y a n g s a m a , F a j a n a ( 1 9 7 9 ) m e m b e n t u k b e b e r a p a m o d e l d e n g a n b e r b a g a i r a g a m m o d i f i k a s i p e u b a h p e r t u m b u b u h a n P D B d a n e k s p o r . P e r s a m a a n p e r t a m a m e r e g r e s i p e r s e n t a s e p e r u b a h a n P D B t e r h a d a p r a t i o e k s p o r d a n P D B . P e r s a m a a n k e d u a m e r e g r e s i p e r u b a h a n P D B t e r h a d a p p e r u b a h a n e k s p o r . P e r s a m a a n k e t i g a m e r e g r e s i p e r s e n t a s e p e r u b a h a n P D B t e r h a d a p r a s i o p e r u b a h a n e k s p o r t e r h a d a p P D B . D a r i s e k i a n b a n y a k p e r s a m a a n r e g r e s i , s a t u d i a n t a r a n y a m e n g g u n a k a n r a s i o p e m b e n t u k a n m o d a l t e t a p t e r h a d a p P D B s e b a g a i p e u b a h t e r g a n t u n g , s e m e n t a r a s a t u p e r s a m a a n l a g i m e n g g u n a k a n r a t i o i m p o r b a r a n g m o d a l t e r h a d a p P D B s e b a g a i p e u b a h t e r g a n t u n g . K e s i m p u l a n n y a m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a d a m p a k p o s i t i f e k s p o r l e b i h b e s a r d a r i p a d a d a m p a k p o s i t i f a r u s m o d a l a s i n g t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . T y l e r ( 1 9 8 1 ) m u l a - m u l a m e n g g u n a k a n u j i k o r e l a s i u n t u k m e l i h a t h u b u n g a n a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n p e r l u a s a n e k s p o r d e n g a n m e n g g i m a k a n d a t a s i l a n g d a r i 5 5 n e g a r a s e d a n g b e r k e m b a n g b e r p e n d a p a t a n m e n e n g a h s e l a m a p e r i o d e 1 9 6 0 - 7 7 . D a r i u j i k o r e l a s i i n i d i p e r l i h a t k a n a d a n y a h u b u n g a n p o s i t i f y a n g s a n g a t n y a t a a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d e n g a n b e r b a g a i p e u b a h e k o n o m i l a i n n y a s e p e r t i p e u b a h p e r t u m b u h a n output manufaktur, i n v e s t a s i , t o t a l e k s p o r , d a n e k s p o r manufaktur. A n a l i s i s t e r s e b u t k e m u d i a n d i l a n j u t k a n d e n g a n a n a l i s i s r e g r e s i y a n g b e n t u k d a s a m y a a d a l a h P D B s e b a g a i f u n g s i d a r i j a s a s t o k m o d a l , t e n a g a k e r j a , d a n t o t a l e k s p o r , d a n e k s p o r manufaktur. H a s i l n y a m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b u k t i e m p i r i s t a m b a h a n t e r h a d a p h a s i l y a n g d i p e r o l e h B a l a s s a ( 1 9 7 8 ) b a h w a k i n e r j a e k s p o r m e m p u n y a i h u b u n g a n y a n g k u a t d e n g a n p e r t u m b u h a n P D B d i n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r p e n d a p a t a n m e n e n g a h . K a r e n a i t u d i s a r a n k a n n y a b a h w a k e b i j a k a n y a n g m e m b e r i i n s e n t i f h a r g a y a n g t e p a t u n t u k p e n g e m b a n g a n e k s p o r m e r u p a k a n k e b i j a k a n p e n t i n g b a g i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g . M o h a m m a d ( 1 9 8 1 ) m e n g g u n a k a n i n p u t - o u t p u t a n a l i s i s u n t u k m e n g k a j i e f e k t i v i t a s k e b i j a k a n p e r d a g a n g a n d a l a m p e n i n g k a t a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n d a l a m p e m e r a t a a n p e n d a p a t a n d i I n d i a . B e b e r a p a k e s i m p u l a n p e n t i n g d a r i a n a l i s i s t e r s e b u t a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t . P e r t a m a , r e d i s t r i b u s i p e n d a p a t a n y a n g m e n g u n t u n g k a n p e n d u d u k b e r p e n g h a s i l a n r e n d a h a k a n m e n i n g k a t k a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a n p e n d a p a t a n p e r o r a n g a n . K e d u a , j i k a t e r d a p a t k e n d a i a m o d a l m a k a k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a n P D B a k a n t u r u n s e b a g a i a k i b a t d a r i r e d i s t r i b u s i . 318
Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97 J i k a k e n d a l a n y a a d a l a h n i l a i t u k a r m a k a d a m p a k k e n d a i a t e r s e b u t t e r h a d a p k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a n P D B t i d a k b e g i t u j e l a s . K e t i g a , p r o m o s i e k s p o r l e b i h m e n g u n t u n g k a n d a r i p a d a s u b s t i t u s i i m p o r d a l a m m e n i n g k a t k a n k e s e m p a t a n k e r j a d a n p e n d a p a t a n . F e d d e r ( 1 9 8 2 ) m e m b a g i P D B a t a s output s e k t o r e k s p o r d a n output s e k t o r n o n - e k s p o r . Output s e k t o r n o n - e k s p o r d i n y a t a k a n s e b a g a i f i m g s i d a r i s t o k m o d a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a s e k t o r t e r s e b u t s e r t a f u n g s i d a r i e k s p o r . S e d a n g k a n output s e k t o r e k s p o r d i g a m b a r k a n h a n y a s e b a g a i f u n g s i d a r i s t o k m o d a l d a n t e n a g a k e r j a p a d a s e k t o r e k s p o r i t u s e n d i r i . D e n g a n m a n i p u l a s i m a t e m a t i k a k h i m y a F e d d e r m e n e m u k a n b a h w a p e m b a h a n output a d a l a h f u n g s i d a r i r a t i o i n v e s t a s i t e r h a d a p output, p e m b a h a n t e n a g a k e r j a , p e r k a l i a n p e m b a h a n e k s p o r d e n g a n r a t i o e k s p o r t e r h a d a p output. D a r i h a s i l a n a l i s i s i n i d i s i m p u i k a n b a h w a k e b e r h a s i l a n n e g a r a - n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g y a n g s e m i i n d u s t r i a i i s d i p e n g a m h i , p a l i n g s e d i k i t , o l e h a l o k a s i s u m b e r d a y a s e c a r a o p t i m a l . T e r d a p a t p e r h e d a a n y a n g b e s a r a n t a r a s e k t o r e k s p o r d a n s e k t o r n o n - e k s p o r d a l a m h a l p r o d u k t i v i t a s m a r j i n a l f a k t o r p r o d u k s i s e h i n g g a s e k t o r e k s p o r m e m b e r i k a n p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p s e k t o r l a i n n y a . R a m ( 1 9 8 5 ) m u l a - m u l a m e r e g r e s i t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n i n p u t k o n v e n s i o n a i t e n a g a k e r j a , r a t i o i n v e s t a s i t e r h a d a p output, d a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . D u a t a h u n b e r i k u t n y a R a m ( 1 9 8 7 ) m e m o d i f i k a s i r e g r e s i t e r s e b u t d e n g a n m e r e g r e s i k a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i t e r h a d a p t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n input k o n v e n s i o n a i t e n a g a k e r j a , r a t i o i n v e s t a s i t e r h a d a p output, d a n r a t i o e k s p o r t e r h a d a p output d e n g a n m e m p e r t i m b a n g k a n p e r h e d a a n p r o d u k t i v i t a s r e l a t i f f a k t o r a n t a r s e k t o r d a n p e n g a r u h e k s t e m a l i t a s m a r j i n a l d a r i s e k t o r e k s p o r t e r h a d a p s e k t o r y a n g l a i n d a l a m e k o n o m i . D a r i a n a l i s i s i n i m u n c u l d u a k e s i m p u l a n . P e r t a m a , p e r a n a n e k s p o r t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i a d a l a h p o s i t i f . K e d u a , p e n g g u n a a n d a t a s e r i e s m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g j a u h l e b i h b a i k d a r i p e n g g u n a a n d a t a s i l a n g {cross section), d a n k a r e n a i t u p e n a f s i r a n h a s i l d a r i a n a l i s i s y a n g p e n g g u n a a n d a t a s i l a n g h a r u s d i l a k u k a n s e c a r a b e r h a t i - h a t i . S e b e l u m J u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) m e l a k u k a n a n a l i s i s e k o n o m e t r i k m e r e k a t e r l e b i h d a h u l u m e n i n j a u h a s i l s t u d i y a n g m e n g g u n a k a n a n a l i s i s e k o n o m e t r i k y a n g d i l a k u k a n o l e h p a r a p e n d a h u l u n y a ( l i h a t Tabel 1).
T e r l i h a t b a h w a s e m u a s t u d i y a n g direview t e r s e b u t m e n d u k u n g k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k s p o r a t a u m e n e r i m a export promotion hypothesis. P e r t a n y a a n y a n g b e l u m t e r j a w a b a d a l a h m e n g e n a i a r a h h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , y a i t u a p a k a b y a n g p e r t a m a m e m p e n g a r u h i y a n g k e d u a a t a u s e b a l i k n y a s a l i n g m e m p e n g a r u h i a t a u s a l i n g t i d a k m e m p e n g a r u h i . U n t u k m e n j a w a b p e r t a n y a a n i t u , J u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) m e n g g u n a k a n m e t o d e a n a l i s i s y a n g l e b i h m a m p u m e n g k a j i h u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t t e r s e b u t d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n d a t a s e r i e s s e p e r t i y a n g d i t a w a r k a n o l e h G r a n g e r ( 1 9 6 9 ) . M e n u r u t G r a n g e r ( 1 9 6 9 ) , p e u b a h X d i k a t a k a n m e m p e n g a r u h i p e u b a h Y j i k a n i l a i Y p a d a s u a t u t a i n d a p a t d i p r e d i k s i l e b i h b a i k o l e h n i l a i - n i l a i X p a d a t a h u n - t a h u n s e b e l u m n y a d a r i p a d a k a l a u n i l a i - n i l a i X s e b e l u m n y a t i d a k d i g u n a k a n . M e t o d e t e r s e b u t d i t e r a p k a n u n t u k d a t a s e r i e s d a r i m a s i n g - m a s i n g n e g a r a y a n g b e r j u m l a h 3 7 n e g a r a . H a s i l n y a m e m p e r l i h a t k a n b a h w a t i d a k b a n y a k n e g a r a y a n g m e m p e r l i h a t k a n p e n g a r u h e k s p o r t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . B a h w a e k s p o r m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i h a n y a t e r j a d i d i 4 d a r i 3 7 n e g a r a , y a i t u : I n d o n e s i a , M e s i r , C o s t a R i c a , d a n E c u a d o r . C h o w ( 1 9 8 7 ) k e m u d i a n l e b i h m e n g k h u s u s k a n d i r i m e n g k a j i h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a e k p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n s e k t o r m a n u f a k t u r ( b u k a n P D B k e s e l u r u h a n ) u n t u k n e g a r a - n e g a r a i n d u s t r i b a r u ( K o r e a , T a i w a n , H o n g k o n g , S i n g a p u r a , I s r a e l , M e k s i k o , A r g e n t i a , d a n B r a z i l ) . M e t o d e a n a l i s i s n y a d i k e m b a n g k a n d a r i m o d e l y a n g d i s a r a n k a n o l e h S i m s ( 1 9 7 2 ) y a n g a g a k m i r i p d e n g a n m o d e l y a n g d i s a j i k a n o l e h D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) d e n g a n p e u b a h l a g 3 t a h u n ( l i h a t m e t o d e d a n h a s i l a n a l i s i s d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i ) D a r i h a s i l a n a l i s i s t e r s e b u t . C h o w ( 1 9 8 7 ) m e n y i m p u l k a n b a h w a d i M e k s i k o t e r d a p a t h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s s a t u a r a h d e n g a n p e n g e r t i a n b a h w a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r s e c a r a n y a t a m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n i n d u s t r i , t i d a k s e b a l i k n y a . H u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s y a n g t i d a k n y a t a t e r d a p a t d i A r g e n t i n a , n a m i m t i d a k d i j e l a s k a n m e n g a p a h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s t e r s e b u t t i d a k n y a t a u n t u k A r g e n t i n a . M e s k i p u n B r a z i l m e m i l i k i p a s a r d o m e s t i k y a n g b e s a r t e m y a t a B r a z i l m e m p e r l i h a t k a n k a u s a l i t a s d u a a r a h s e p e r t i y a n g t e r j a d i d i T a i w a n , K o r e a , S i n g a p u r a , H o n g k o n g , d a n I s r a e l . 3 2 0
Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971 -97 Tabel 1
Studi Empiris Tentang Ekspor dan Pertumbuhan Ekonomi, Sebelum 1985
Studi Gugus data * Tehnik ekonometrik Variabel lainya Hasil *
Emery (1967) Data silang (50) 1 periode (rataan 1953-63)
OLS (GNP thdp Ekspor) Neraca berjalan PE Meizei (1968) Data series (9) (1950-62) 9 negara OLS (GDP thdp Ekspor) Tidak ada PE Voivodas (1977) Data silang (22) Data series (12) (1956-67) OLS (GDP thdp pangsa
ekspor) Dummi negara PE
Michaely
(1977) Data silang (41) 1 periode (1950-73)
Korelasi peringkat Spearrnan (Pertumbuhan GNP per kapita thdp pertumbuhan pangsa ekspor) Tidak ada PE
Balassa (1978) Data silang (10) 2 periode (196099) & (1967-73)
OLS (Pertumbuhan GNP thdp pertumbuhan ekspor atau pertumbuhan ekspor rill Pertumbuhan angkatan kerja, ratio investasi/ output, investasi asing/output PE Wiillamson (1978) Data silang (22) Data series (1960-74) OLS (Perubahan GDP thdp lag ekspor) Durmni untuk negara, investasi langsung, modal asing lainnya. PE
rajana {1 y / y (1954-74) Nigeria Data series (20)
OLS (Perubahan GDP thdp pangsa ekspor atau perubahan ratio ekspor/output) Neraca perdagangan, neraca berjalan DP t^t
Tyler (1981) Data silang (55) 1 periode (1960-77) OLS (Pertumbuhan G D P thdp pertumbuhan ekspor)
Pertumbuhan angkatan kerja, ral investasi/ output PE Data silang (31) 1 periode (1964-73) OLS (Perubahan GDP thdp pangsa ekspor atau perubahan ratio ekspor/output) Pertumbuhan angkatan keija, ratio investasi/ output PE Schenzier
(1982) (1950-79)3 negara Data series (30)
OLS (Pertumbuhan GDP thdp pertumbuhan ekspor atau pangsa ekspor)
Pangsa-pangsa (investasi, bantuan luar negeri, pengeluaran pemerintah, investasi langsung) PE " A n g k a d a t a m k u r u n g m e n u n j u k k a n j u m l a h n e g a r a (data s i l a n g ) a t a u j u m l a h t a h u n ( d a t a series). * O L S = k u a d r a t t e r k e c i l b i a s a ; G N P = p r o d u k n a s i o n a l b r u t o ; G D P = p r o d u k d o m e s t i k b r u t o . " L P = s e m u a t e m u a n m e n d u k u n g k e b i j a k a n p r o m o s i e k s p o r . S u m b e r : Y u n g a n d M a r s h a l l (1985).
S e p e r t i M i c h a e l y ( 1 9 7 7 ) , S h e e h e y ( 1 9 9 0 ) j u g a m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a r e g r e s i a n t a r a P D B d e n g a n e k s p o r m e m b e r i k a n h a s i l y a n g b i a s s e b a g a i a k i b a t d a r i built-in correlation y a n g b e r a s a l d a r i k e n y a t a a n b a b w a e k s p o r a d a l a b k o m p o n e n d a r i P D B . U n t u k m e n g a t a s i m a s a l a h i t u , S h e e h e y ( 1 9 9 2 ) k e m u d i a n m e n g g a n t i k a n p e u b a h e k s p o r d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e r u b a h a n p a n g s a e k s p o r d a l a m P D B . D e n g a n m e n g e l o m p o k k a n b e r b a g a i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g m e n j a d i k e l o m p o k ' k u r a n g i n d u s t r i a i i s ' d a n k e l o m p o k ' l e b i b i n d u s t r i a i i s ' , S h e e i e y ( 1 9 9 2 ) m e n y i m p u l k a n b a b w a p e n g a r u h p e r t u m b u h a n p a n g s a e k s p o r t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n P D B b a n y a p e n t i n g p a d a n e g a r a - n e g a r a y a n g s u d a h l e b i b i n d u s t r i a i i s , t e t a p i k e m u d i a n m e n j a d i k u r a n g p e n t i n g l a g i s e i r i n g d e n g a n p e r j a l a n a n w a k t u . L o v e ( 1 9 9 2 ) m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l y a n g h a m p i r s a m a d e n g a n y a n g d i g u n a k a n C h o w ( 1 9 8 7 ) u n t u k 8 n e g a r a d i A m e r i k a T e n g a h d a n 3 n e g a r a d i A f r i k a . M a s i n g - m a s i n g n e g a r a p a d a s e t i a p k e l o m p o k s a l i n g t e r g a n t u n g s a t u d e n g a n y a n g l a i n d a l a m p e r d a g a n g a n . K e d u a m o d e l p e r s a m a a n n y a m e r e g r e s i k a n k e t i d a k s t a b i l a n p e n d a p a t a n t e r h a d a p k e t i d a k s t a b i l a n e k s p o r d a l a m b e n t u k p e u b a h l a g . S a t u d a r i d u a p e r s a m a a n i t u t i d a k b a n y a m e n g g u n a k a n p e u b a h l a g e k s p o r k e b e l a k a n g t a p i j u g a k e d e p a n . H a s i l a n a l i s i s n y a m e n d u k u n g p e n d a p a t k o n v e n s i o n a i y a n g m e n y a t a k a n b a b w a k e t i d a k s t a b i l a n e k s p o r m e n c i p t a k a n k e t i d a k -s t a b i l a n m a k r o e k o n o m i j a n g k a p e n d e k . M e s k i p i m k e b a n y a k a n p e n e l i t i t e r s e b u t d i a t a s m e n g e n a i h u b i m g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , k e b a n y a k a n s t u d i t e r s e b u t t i d a k m e n c o b a m e n d a l a m i h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s t e r s e b u t , k e c u a l i Y u n g a n d M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) d a n C h o w ( 1 9 8 7 ) . K a r e n a i t u D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) m e n g i k u t i j e j a k Y u n g d a n M a r s h a l l y a n g m e m a n f a a t k a n m e t o d e a n a l i s i s y a n g d i t a w a r k a n G r a n g e r ( 1 9 6 9 ) . S p e c i f i k a s i m e t o d e a n a l i s i s d i b a w a b i n i s e l u r u h n y a m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l y a n g t e l a h d i g u n a k a n o l e b D o d a r o .
3. HASIL ANALISIS
U n t u k m e n g a n a l i s i s b u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i p e r l u k a n d a t a s e r i e s y a n g c u k u p p a n j a n g . D a t a y a n g d i g u n a k a n d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i b e r s u m b e r d a r i S t a t i s t i k I n d o n e s i a B P S d a n World Tables y a n g m u t b i r d a r i B a n k D u n i a . D a t a s e r i e s 3 2 2Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97 y a n g t e r s e d i a t e r d i r i d a r i 2 7 t a h u n . S e m u a d a t a e k s p o r d a n P D B d i k o n v e r s i k a n k e h a r g a t e t a p 1 9 8 7 d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n d e f l a t o r P D B . S e p e r t i t e l a h d i u t a r a k a n d i a t a s , b a n y a k s t u d i s e b e l u m n y a t i d a k m e n d a l a m i h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . U n t u k m e n g u j i p e n g a r u h e k s p o r t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n , b a n y a k p e n e l i t i m e n g g u n a k a n m o d e l r e g r e s i t u n g g a l a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h -a n e k s p o r d -a n p e r t u m b u h -a n e k o n o m i s e c -a r -a l -a n g s u n g ( l i h -a t m i s -a l n y -a F a j a n a , 1 9 7 9 ; d a n R a m , 1 9 8 5 ) . F a j a n a m e n g g u n a k a n p e r t u m b u h a n G D P ( A Y / Y) s e b a g a i p e u b a h t i d a k b e b a s d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r ( A X / X ) s e b a g a i p e u b a h b e b a s . A l a s a n m e n g g u n a k a n p e u b a h d a l a m b e n t u k p e r h e d a a n t i n g k a t p e r t a m a , m i s a b i y a ( A Y = Y , - Y , . , ) d a n ( A X = X , - X , . , ) , d i m a k s u d k a n u n t u k m e n g b i n d a r i m a s a l a h a u t o g r e g r e s i . K e n d a t i p u n d e m i k i a n , c a r a i n i t i d a k b a n y a m e n u r u n k a n n i l a i DW-statistic t a p i j u g a m e n u r u n k a n n i l a i R 2 s e h i n g g a t i d a k d i s u k a i p a r a p e n e l i t i . S i k a p t e r s e b u t d i k e n a l s e b a g a i g e j a l a " R ' syndrome". M e n g h a d a p i h a l i t u . G r a n g e r d a n N e w b o l d ( l i h a t M a d d a l a , 1 9 7 7 ) t e t a p m e n y a t a k a n b a h w a p e n g g u n a a n p e u b a h p e r h e d a a n p e r t a m a m a s i h l e b i h b a i k d a r i p a d a p e n g g u n a a n p e u b a h a s l i n y a . Y a n g p e r l u d i p e r h a t i k a n a d a l a h k a l a u n i l a i R ' m e n d e k a t i n o l m a k a h a r u s d i s i m p u i k a n b a h w a h u b u n g a n a n t a r a p e u b a h y a n g m e n e r a n g k a n d a n y a n g d i t e r a n g k a n t i d a k a d a ( l i h a t M a d d a l a , 1 9 7 7 ) . H a l i n i d i j a d i k a n d a s a r d a l a m s p e s i f i k a s i k e l i m a p e r s a m a a n p e r t a m a d i b a w a b i n i . D a l a m m a k a l a h i n i m o d e l r e g r e s i s e d e r h a n a j u g a d i a n a l i s i s s e b a g a i p e m b a n d i n g t e r h a d a p m o d e l y a n g d i a n g g a p l e b i b m a m p u m e n g g a m b a r k a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a e k p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i . M o d e l s e d e r h a n a i t u a d a l a b s e b a g a i b e r i k u t : GY,=a„+a,GX, ( 1 ) d i m a n a : G Y , = ( Y . - Y , . , ) / Y..^ G X = ( X . - X , J / X . . , Y - P D B r i i l ( d i p e r o l e h d e n g a n d e f l a t o r i m p l i s i t d a r i P D B ) X = E k s p o r r i i l d a r i b a r a n g d a n j a s a j a s a b u k a n f a k t o r t = T a h u n k e - t . j
P e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) d i l a n d a s i k e y a k i n a n b a h w a e k s p o r , t e r u t a m a e k s p o r d a r i s e k t o r p e n g o l a h a n d a n m a n u f a k t u r , s a n g a t m e n e n t u k a n p e r t u m b u h a n P D B . P e r l u d i i n g a t b a h w a p e n i n g k a t a n p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g d i s e b a b k a n o l e h e k s p o r k o m o d i t a s p r i m e r t i d a k s e b e s a r p e n i n g k a t a n p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g d i b a n g k i t k a n o l e b e k s p o r k o m o d i t a s m a n u f a k t u r . T e r l e p a s d a r i k e l e m a h a n - k e l e m a h a n y a n g a d a , p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) i n i t e l a h d i g u n a k a n o l e b b e b e r a p a s t u d i s e b e l u r r m y a . D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n p e r s a m a n a m ( 1 ) u n t u k b e r b a g a i n e g a r a b e r k e m b a n g , D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) m e n e m u k a n b a b w a b u b u n g a n a n t a r a t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r d a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n P D B t i d a k t e r l i h a t n y a t a . B a h k a n p e n a m b a h a n p e u b a h s e p e r t i t e n a g a k e r j a d a n i n v e s t a s i p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) t i d a k b a n y a k m e m p e r b a i k i h a s i l n y a . I n i b e r a r t i b a h w a s p e s i f i k a s i p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) m e n g a n d u n g k e l e m a h a n k a r e n a c u k u p b e r a l a s a n k a l a u m e n g b a r a p k a n a d a n y a h u b i m g a n p o s i t i f a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n P D B . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n m a k a p e n d u g a a n y a n g b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) h a r u s d i p a n d a n g s e b a g a i p e m b a n d i n g t e r h a d a p p e n d u g a a n y a n g l a i n . H u b u n g a n a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n P D B u m u m n y a m e n g u a t s e j a l a n d e n g a n t i n g k a t p e m b a n g i m a n . T e t a p i , k e c e n d e r u n g a n i t u m a s i b t e r p e n g a r u b o l e b f a k t o r - f a k t o r l a i n s e p e r t i . (1) b e s a m y a n e g e r i , (2) p e r t u m b u h a n p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i , d a n ( 3 ) k a r a k t e r i s t i k i n t e r n a l e k o n o m i n e g e r i b e r s a n g k u t a n ( l i h a t D o d a r o , 1 9 9 3 ) . S e m a k i n b e s a r s u a t u n e g e r i , s e m a k i n l e m a h h u b u n g a n a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n P D B k a r e n a s e k t o r e k s t e m a l s e m a k i n k u r a n g p e n t i n g . H u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t j u g a s e m a k i n m e i e m a h a p a b i i a p e r m i n t a a n d a l a m n e g e r i m e n i n g k a t d e n g a n c e p a t p a d a s a a t e k o n o m i s e d a n g t u m b u h . K a r a k t e r i s t i k i n t e m a l e k o n o m i y a n g s a n g a t m e m p e n g a r u h i b u b u n g a n e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n G D P a d a l a b d e r a j a t b e r f i m g s i n y a p a s a r , t i n g k a t e f i s i e n s i p a s a r , d e r a j a t d i s t o r s i h a r g a - h a r g a , d a n f a k t o r e f i s i e n s i l a i n n y a y a n g m e n c i r i k a n n e g e r i b e r s a n g k u t a n . D i s a m p i n g k e l e m a h a n p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) y a n g t e l a h d i t e m u k a n o l e b D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) i t u , p e r s a m a a n i n i j u g a t i d a k d a p a t m e n g g a m b a r k a n a r a h b u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t a n t a r a k e d u a p e u b a h t e r s e b u t . U n t u k d a p a t m e n d a l a m i k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a p e r k e m b a n g a n e k p o r d a n p e r k e m b a n g a n e k o n o m i , u j i b u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t y a n g d i p a k a i o l e b D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) d i g u n a k a n l a g i d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i . S e b e l u m u j i i n i d i g u n a k a n o l e b D o d a r o , u j i s e r u p a t e l a h d i g u n a k a n o l e b J u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) y a n g 3 2 4
Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97 d i a d a p t a s i d a r i G r a n g e r ( 1 9 6 9 ) . E m p a t p e r s a m a a n y a n g d i g u n a k a n a d a l a h s e b a g a i b e r i k u t ( l i h a t a r t i n o t a s i n y a p a d a p e r s a m a a n 1 ) : G Y , = a -H a i G Y . . i + a^ GY,.2 ( 2 a ) G Y , = b -H b i G Y , . i + b j G Y . . ^ + G X , . i + b4 G X . . ^ ( 2 b ) G X , = c -E c , G X , . , + C2 G X , . , G X , = d + d , G X , . , + dz GX,.2 + d , G Y , . , + d4 GY,.2 . ( 3 a ) ( 3 b ) P a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 2 a ) d a n ( 3 a ) , s e t i a p p e u b a h y a n g d i t e r a n g k a n d i r e g r e s i k a n t e r h a d a p n i l a i y a n g l a l u d a r i p e u b a h i t u s e n d i r i . D a l a m p e r s a m a a n ( 2 b ) d a n ( 3 b ) , s e t i a p p e u b a h y a n g d i t e r a n g k a n d i r e g r e s i k a n t e r h a d a p n i l a i y a n g l a l u d a r i p e u b a h i t u s e n d i r i d a n n i l a i y a n g l a l u d a r i p e u b a h l a i n n y a . K e p u t u s a n t e n t a n g b e r a p a t a h u n y a n g d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n p e u b a h l a g s e b e n a m y a t e r g a n t u n g p a d a p i l i b a n (arbitrary). D u a t a h u n l a g d i p a n d a n g c u k u p p a n j a n g u n t u k m e l i h a t b u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t y a n g m u n g k i n m u n c u l t a n p a h a r u s m e n g o r b a n k a n d e r a j a t b e b a s (degrees of freedom) r e g r e s i t e r l a l u b a n y a k . H a l i n i p e r l u d i p e r t i m b a n g k a n k a l a u d a t a y a n g t e r s e d i a b u k a n m e r u p a k a n d a t a s e r i e s p a n j a n g . K a l a u : Z , = ( b 3 + b 4 ) ( 4 ) Z 2= ( d 3 + d 4 ) ( 5 ) m a k a u j i h u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t d i l a k u k a n d e n g a n u j i F - s t a t i s t i c s . U j i t e r s e b u t b e r k a i t a n d e n g a n a p a k a b b i p o t e s i s n u l b e r i k u t i n i d a p a t d i t o l a k a t a u t i d a k . H„ : Z j = 0 , ( 6 ) H„ : Z 2 = 0 ( 7 ) J i k a H o : Z ] = 0 d a p a t d i t o l a k d a n Z , > 0 m a k a d a p a t d i s i m p u i k a n b a b w a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r m e n y e b a b k a n p e r t u m b u h a n P D B , d a n k a l a u Z , < 0 m a k a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r m e n g b a m b a t p e r t u m b u h a n P D B . J i k a H o : Z2 = 0 d a p a t d i t o l a k m a k a b u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t t e r j a d i s e b a l i k n y a , y a i t u p e r t u m b u h a n P D B m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . A p a k a b
h u b u n g a n t e r s e b u t p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f t e r g a n t u n g p a d a a p a k a h t a n d a Z j p o s i t i f a t a u n e g a t i f . M e n u r u t J u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) , s e n a r i o i n i m e n u j u k e p a d a e m p a t k a r a k t e r i s a s i h u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t , y a i t u (1) p r o m o s i e k s p o r , ( 2 ) e k s p o r y a n g m e n g u r a n g i p e r t u m b u h a n , (3) e k s p o r y a n g d i b a n g k i t k a n s e c a r a i n t e m a l , d a n (4) p e r t u m b u h a n y a n g m e n g u r a n g i e k s p o r . K e e m p a t k e m u n g k i n a n i t u t e r g a n t i m g p a d a k a r a k t e r i s t i k n e g e r i b e r s a n g k u t a n . D a l a m k e a d a a n d i m a n a b i p o t e s i s n u l t e r s e b u t d a p a t d i t o l a k m a k a a k a n a d a u m p a n b a l i k d a l a m s i s t e m e k o n o m i b e r s a n g k u t a n . J i k a t i d a k s a t u p u n d a r i b i p o t e s i s n u l t e r s e b u t t i d a k d a p a t d i t o l a k m a k a t i d a k s a t u p u n d a r i k e d u a h u b i m g a n s e b a b a k i b a t t e r s e b u t d a p a t t e r j a d i . U n t u k m e n g u j i k e d u a b i p o t e s i s n u l t e r s e b u t d i a t a s d i g u n a k a n u j i - F y a n g d i s a r a n k a n o l e b F o o t d a n N o r t h ( l i h a t D o d a r o , 1 9 9 3 ) s e p e r t i d i n y a t a k a n d i b a w a b i n i : F = {(SSRi - SSR2) / (DFi - DF2)) / (SSR2 / DF2) ( 8 ) D i m a n a : F = F - s t a t i s t i c
SSRj = sum of squared residuals y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i r e g r e s i d a s a r t a n p a p e u b a h l a i n n y a ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 a a t a u 3 a ) .
SSR2 = sum of squared residuals y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i r e g r e s i d i m a n a p e u b a h l a i n y a d i i k u t k a n ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 b a t a u 3 b ) . D F j = D e r a j a t b e b a s p a d a r e g r e s i d a s a r t a n p a p e u b a h l a i n n y a ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 a a t a u 3 a ) . DF2 = D e r a j a t b e b a s p a d a r e g r e s i y a n g m e n g i k u t k a n p e u b a h l a i n n y a ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 2 b a t a u 3 b ) . D a l a m a n a l i s i s r e g r e s i y a n g m e n g g i m a k a n d a t a s e r i e s , g a l a t {error tems) s e n n g b e r k o r e l a s i s e s a m a n y a s e p a n j a n g w a k t u . H a l i n i d a p a t d i k e t a h u i d e n g a n b e s a r a n DurbinWatson ( D W ) s t a t i s t i k y a n g s e m a k i n m e n i n g k a t a p a b i i a a u t o k o r e l a s i t e r s e b u t s e m a k i n t i n g g i . K a l a u a u t o k o r e l a s i b a d i r m a k a p e n d u g a p a r a m a t e r k u a d r a t t e r k e c i l b i a s a ( O L S ) t i d a k e f f l s i e n d a n p e n d u g a a n a k a n m e n j a d i b i a s . H a l i n i d a p a t t e r l i h a t d a r i b a s i l r e g r e s i p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) y a n g d i s a j i k a n p a d a Tabel 2 . M l a i D - W S t a t i s t i c y a n g b e s a r p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a s p e s i f i k a s i p e r s a m a a n i n i k u r a n g t e p i t k a r e n a m a s i b m e n g a n d u n g m a s a l a h a u t o k o r e l a s i . D i s a m p i n g m a s a l a h a u t o k o r e l a s i , S h e e i e y ( 1 9 9 0 ) j u g a m e n y a t a k a n b a b w a 3 2 6
Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97 p e r s a m a a n s e p e r t i i t u b i a s s e b a g a i a k i b a t d a r i a d a n y a k o r e l a s i a n t a r a t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n P D B d a n t i n g k a t p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . K o r e l a s i t e r s e b u t t e r b e n t u k k a r e n a e k s p o r m e r u p a k a n k o m p o n e n P D B . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n m a k a p e r s a m a a n ( 1 ) t i d a k d a p a t d i g u n a k a n u n t u k m e n e n t u k a n a r a h h u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s a n t a r a e k s p o r d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i m e s k i p u n k o e f i s i e n p a r a m e t e m y a b e r b e d a n y a t a . I S e p e r t i t e l a h d i k e m u k a k a n d i a t a s , p e n d u g a a n y a n g d i l a k u k a n u n t u k p e r s a m a a n ( 2 a ) , ( 2 b ) , ( 3 a ) , d a n ( 3 b ) d i m a k s u d k a n u n t u k m e n g u j i h u b u n g a n s e b a b a k i b a t a n t a r a p e r t u m b u h a n G D P d a n p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . H a s i l t e r p e n t i n g d a r i p e n d u g a a n t e r s e b u t a d a l a h n i l a i F h i t i m g y a n g d i p e r o l e h d a r i p a s a n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 2 a ) d e n g a n ( 2 b ) d a n d a r i p a s a n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 3 a ) d e n g a n ( 3 b ) . N i l a i F h i t u n g y a n g d i p e r o l e h t e r s e b u t m e n e n t u k a n a p a k a b b i p o t e s i s n u l p a d a p e r s a m a a n ( 6 ) d a n ( 7 ) d i t e r i m a a t a u t i d a k . Tabel2
Eiasil Analisis Regresi Peubah
tergantung
Koefisien peubah tidak terg antung R" D.W.d Stat
Peubah
tergantung Intersep GX' GY" GY'" GX" GX'" R" D.W.d Stat
Pers. 1: GY" 6.095.'' 0.099'' 0.145 2.265
Pers. 2a: GY' 9.466- -0.13U -0120 0.094 1.838
Pers. 2b: GY' 9.226- -02.82 -0181 0.120' -0.018 0.238 1.790 Pers. 3a: CX' 4,137 ' 0.119 0.007 0.016 1.999 Pers. 3b: GX' 13.858 -1.318 -0.320 0.224 0.148 0.119 1.974 Keterangan: S u p e r s k r i p a, b , d a n c b e r t u r u t - t u r u t b e r a r t i b e r b e d a n y a t a p a d a 1 p e r s e n , 5 p e r s e n d a n 1 0 p e r s e n ; N i l a i Z j = 0.102, d a n = -1.640 ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 4 d a n 5 ) ; N i l a i F , Statistics = 0 . 1 7 1 3 d a n F2 Statistics = 0 . 1 0 5 0 ( l i h a t p e r s a m a a n 8 ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a h w a Z , d a n Z2 m a s i n g - m a s i n g t i d a k b e r b e d a n y a t a d e n g a n n o l . D e n g a n m e n g g u n a k a n r u m u s F - S t a t i s t i c ( p e r s a m a a n 8 ) u n t u k p a s a n g a n p e r s a m a a n ( 2 a ) d a n ( 2 b ) d i p e r o l e h n i l a i h i t u n g F , = 0 . 1 7 1 3 d e n g a n - d e r a j a t b e b a s 2 u n t u k p e m b i l a n g d a n 1 9 u n t u k p e n y e b u t . K a r e n a n i l a i t e r s e b u t l e b i b k e c i l d a r i n i l a i y a n g t e r d a p a t p a d a t a b e l F m a k a d a p a t d i k a t a k a n b a b w a b i p o t e s i s HQ : Z j = O t i d a k d a p a t d i t o l a k p a d a t i n g k a t 5 p e r s e n . D e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n m a k a n i l a i Z j - 0 . 1 0 2 ( y a n g d i h i t u n g d e n g a n m e n g g u n a k k a n p e r s a m a a n 4 ) j u g a t i d a k b e r b e d a n y a t a p a d a
t i n g k a t 5 p e r s e n . B e g i t u p u l a d e n g a n n i l a i h i t u n g F j = 0 . 1 0 5 0 ( d a r i p e r s a m a a n 3 a d a n 3 b ) m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a n i l a i = - 1 . 6 4 0 j u g a t i d a k b e r b e d a n y a t a d e n g a n n o l . D e n g a n d e m i k i a n d a p a t d i s i m p u i k a n b a b w a , d a l a m k u r u n w a k t u 1 9 7 1 - 9 7 , p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r d i I n d o n e s i a t i d a k b e r p e n g a m b n y a t a t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n F D B d a n b e g i t u p u l a s e b a l i k n y a . K e s i m p u l a n t e r s e b u t b e r b e d a d e n g a n b a s i l d a r i d u a s t u d i t e r d a b u l u . Y u n g d a n M a r s h a l ( 1 9 8 5 ) m i s a l n y a m e n y i m p u l k a n b a b w a , p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 5 0 - 8 0 , e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d e n g a n t i n g k a t k e y a k i n a n 9 5 p e r s e n . S e b a l i k n y a , p e r t u m b u h a n output t i d a k m e m p e n g a m h i p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r . H a l i n i m i r i p d e n g a n k a s u s M e k s i k o y a n g k e t i k a i t u m e n u n j u k k a n b u b u n g a n k a u s a l i t a s s a t u a r a h , y a i t u b a n y a e k s p o r y a n g m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d a n t i d a k s e b a l i k n y a ( l i h a t C h o w , 1 9 8 7 ) . D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) m e l a k u k a n s t u d i u n t u k p e r i o d e y a n g s e b a g i a n w a k t u n y a s a m a d e n g a n p e n g g a l p e r i o d e y a n g d i a n a l i s i s o l e b Y u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) t e r s e b u t , y a i t u p e r i o d e 1 9 6 7 - 8 6 . U n t u k p e r i o d e 2 0 t a h u n i n i , D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) j u g a m e n y i m p u l k a n b a b w a e k s p o r I n d o n e s i a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n F D B d e n g a n t i n g k a t k e y a k i n a n 9 0 p e r s e n . S e b a l i k n y a , p e r t u m b u h a n output j u s t m b e r -p e n g a r u h n e g a t i f t e r h a d a -p e k s -p o r -p a d a t i n g k a t k e y a k i n a n 9 5 -p e r s e n . N i l a i Z 2 y a n g n e g a t i f m e n u n j u k k a n b a b w a s e b a g i a n b e s a r d a r i p e r t u m b u h a n output I n d o n e s i a p a d a p e r i o d e t e r s e b u t d i s e r a p o l e b p a s a r d a l a m n e g e r i . D e n g a n m e n g g a b u n g k a n b a s i l a n a l i s i s p a d a m a k a l a h i n i d e n g a n b a s i l - b a s i l y a n g d i k e m u k a k a n o l e b Y u n g d a n M a r s h a l l ( 1 9 8 5 ) d a n D o d a r o ( 1 9 9 3 ) m a k a d a p a t d i s i m p u i k a n b a b w a p e n g a r u h e k s p o r t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i d i I n d o n e s i a s a n g a t n y a t a s a m p a i s e k i t a r 1 5 t a h u n p e r t a m a p e m b a n g i m a n . K e m u d i a n h u b i m g a n t e r s e b u t s e m a k i n t i d a k n y a t k a r e n a p e r t u m b u h a n output d i I n d o n e s i a s e m a k i n b a n y a k d i s e r a p o l e b p a s a r d o m e s t i k . K e s i m p u l a n i n i h a r u s d i p a n d a n g s e b a g a i k e s i m p u l a n s e m e n t a r a s e b e l u m b e r b a g a i m e t o d e a n a l i s i s y a n g l a i n d i g u n a k a n p a d a k e s e m p a t a n b e r i k u t n y a . 328
Kausalitas antara Ekspor dan PDB di Indonesia, 1971-97
4. KESIMPULAN
A n a l i s i s d a l a m m a k a l a h i n i t i d a k b e r h a s i l m e m p e r l i b a t k a n b a b w a e k s p i r m e m p e n g a r u h i p e r t u m b u h a n P D B p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 7 1 - 9 7 . H a l i n i m u n g k i n t e r j a d i k a r e n a e k s p o e r p a d a p e r i o d e 1 9 8 1 - 8 5 m e n g a l a m i p e n u r u n a n s e m e n t a r a P D B m e n i n g k a t t e r u s s a m a p a i k r i s i s e k o n o m i m u l a i m e l a n d a n e g e r i i n i p a d a 1 9 9 7 . H a s i l a n a l i s i s i n i b e r b e d a d e n g a n k e s i m p u l a n d a r i d u a s t u d i t e r d a b u l u ( J u n g d a n M a r s h a l l , 1 9 8 5 d a n D o d a r o , 1 9 9 3 ) . B e r d a s a r k a n k e d u a s t u d i t e r d a b u l u i n i d a p a t d i s i m p u i k a n b a b w a p e r t u m b u h a n e k s p o r b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i , p a l i n g s e d i k i t s e l a m a s e k i t a r 3 6 t a h u n ( 1 9 5 0 - 8 6 ) . K a l a u k e s i m p u l a n d a r i s t u d i - s t u d i i n i d i s a t u k a n m a k a u n t u k s e m e n t a r a d a p a t d i s i m p u i k a n b a b w a e k s p o r b a n y a b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f t e r h a d a p p e r t u m b u h a n e k o n o m i s e l a m a 1 5 t a h u n p e r t a m a p e m b a n g u n -a n , t e t -a p i e k s p o r tid-ak l -a g i b e r p e n g -a r u h p o s i t i f -a p -a b i i -a p e m b -a n g u n -a n , t e t a p i e k s p o r t i d a k l a g i b e r p e n g a r u h p o s i t i f a p a b i i a p e m b a n g u n a n t e l a h b e r l a n j u t . M e s k i p u n k e s i m p u l a n y a n g s a m a t e l a h d i n y a t a k a n o l e b S h e e i e y ( 1 9 9 2 , n a m u n k e s i m p u l a n s e m e n t a r a i n i s e b a i k n y a d i p a n d a n g s e b a g a i b i p o t e s i s y a n g p e r l u d i u j i l a g i p a d a s t u d i l e b i b l a n j u t d e n g a n m e t o d e y a n g b e r b e d a . J i k a s t u d i l e b i b l a n j u t k e l a k s a m p a i k e p a d a k e s i m p u l a n y a n g s a m a m a k a k r i s i s e k o n o m i y a n g s e k a r a n g s e d a n g d i a l a m i I n d o n e s i a h a r u s d i p a n d a n g s e b a g i t i t i k p e r m u l a a n p e m b a n g u n a n y a n g b a r u . D e n g a n p e r k a t a a n l a i n , s e k a r a n g i n i d i p e r l u k a n p e n i n g k a t a n e k s p o r k o m o d i t a s y a n g b e n a r - b e n a r m e m p u n y a i k e u n g g u l a n k o m p a r a t i f d a n k o m p e t i t i f .5. DAFTAR PUSTAKA
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