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No. 27/05/TH.X/15 May 2007

ECONOMIC GROWTH IN INDONESIA, Q1/2007

I ndonesia s econom ic grow t h in Q1/ 2007, m easured by GDP expansion ov er Q4/ 2006, reached 2.0 per cent ( q- t - q). Grow t h w as r ecor ded in agricult ur e, electricit y , gas and w at er ut ilit ies, t he t r ade, hot els and r est aur ant s sect or, finance, real estate and business services and in the services sector. Leading in growth was agriculture at 16.8 percent, due to the effect of the harvesting season in Q1/2007.

GDP grow t h in Q1/ 2007 com pared t o t he sam e quar t er in 2006 ( y- o- y) cam e t o 6.0 percent.

The I ndonesian econom y m easur ed by GDP based on cur r ent pr ices in Q1/ 2007 expanded t o Rp 915.9 t r illion, w hile GDP based on const ant 2000 prices w as Rp 475.0 trillion.

Household consum pt ion in Q1/ 2007 fell by minus 0.5 per cent in r eal t erm s from Q4/ 2006. Similarly, government consumption was down by minus 31.1 percent , gross fixed capital formation by minus 2.5 per cent , expor t s of goods and serv ices by minus 0.1 per cent and im port ed com ponent s of goods and services by minus 1.4 percent.

All expendit ur e com ponent s w ere up dur ing Q1/ 2007 in com parison t o t he sam e quarter in 2006 (y- o- y) as follows: household consumption expenditures mounted by 4.5 percent , governm ent consum pt ion expendit ur es by 4.3% , gr oss fixed capit al for m at ion by 7.5% , expor t s of goods and services by 8.9% and im por t s of goods and services by 8.4 percent.

The island of Java w as t he lar gest cont ribut or t o I ndonesia s GDP form at ion in Q1/ 2007 at 60.2 percent . GDP in Java w as dom inat ed in or der of im por t ance by manufacturing, the trade, hotels and restaurants sector and agriculture.

OFFICIAL BULLETIN OF STATISTICS

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I. Economic Growth in Q1/2007 and manufacturing at minus 0.5 percent.

The leading gr ow t h sect or in com parison t o Q4/ 2006 w as agr icult ur e at on the other hand, recorded positive growth albeit at less than 0.1 percent.

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The leading sect or by cont r ibut ion t o econom ic gr ow t h in Q1/ 2007 com pared t o Q1/ 2006 w as m anufact ur ing at 1.5% , follow ed by t r ade, hot els and r est aur ant s at 1.4 per cent . Cont r ibut ion fr om ot her sect or s w as less t han 1 per cent . This indicat es t hat m anufact ur ing has begun t o pr ovide t he dr iv ing for ce for accelerated growth in the Indonesian economy.

GDP gr ow t h in Q1/ 2007 m easur ed against t he sam e quar t er in t he pr evious year r eflect s t he m agnit ude of change w it hout t he influence of seasonal fact or s ( y - o- y). I n Q1/ 2007, all sect or s recorded growt h com pared t o Q1/ 2006, w it h t he ex cept ion of agr icult ur e in which gr ow t h w as negat ive. Tot al GDP gr ow t h r eached 6.0 percent . Tr anspor t and com m unicat ion recor ded 11.1 per cent gr ow t h, follow ed by const r uct ion at 9.3 per cent , t r ade, hot els and rest aur ant s at 8.5 percent , elect r icit y, gas and w at er ut ilit ies at 8.2 percent , financial ser vices, r eal est at e and business services at 7.1 per cent , t he services sect or at 7.0 percent, mining and quarrying at 5.6 percent and manufacturing at 5.4 percent.

Non- oil and gas GDP, m easured back- to- back ( q- t - q) for Q1/ 2007 in com parison t o Q4/ 2006, r ecorded 2.4 per cent gr ow t h. By com par ison, Q1/ 2007 gr ow t h over t he sam e quart er one year befor e ( y- o- y) w as 6.5 per cent . This show s t hat gr ow t h in non- oil GDP gat hered incr eased m om ent um dur ing Q1/2007.

II. GDP Value by Current Prices and Constant 2000 Prices, Q4/2006 and Q1/2007

GDP in Q4/ 2006, based on cur rent prices, w as recorded at Rp 873.3 t rillion and subsequent ly expanded in Q1/ 2007 t o Rp 915.9 t r illion. Calculat ed by const ant 2000 pr ices, GDP in Q4/ 2006 cam e t o Rp 465.9 t r illion and w idened in Q1/2007 to Rp 475.0 trillion.

At cur r ent pr ices, t he leading sect or by gr oss value added during Q1/ 2007 was manufacturing at Rp 250.7 trillion. Next was trade, hotels and restaurants at Rp 135.0 t rillion, follow ed by agricult ure at Rp 126.2 t rillion, m ining and quar r ying at Rp 98.5 t r illion, ser vices at Rp 95.8 t rillion, financial ser vices, r eal est at e and business services at Rp 74.0 t r illion, const r uct ion at Rp 67.4 t rillion, t ranspor t and com m unicat ions at Rp 60.3 t rillion and elect ricit y, gas and w at er utilities at Rp 8.0 trillion.

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transport and com m unicat ions at Rp 32.3 t rillion, const r uct ion at Rp 29.3 t r illion and electricity, gas and water utilities at Rp 3.2 trillion.

Table 2.

GDP by Economic/Business Sector

Based on Current Prices and Constant 2000 Prices (trillions of rupiahs)

Current Prices Constant 2000 Prices ECONOMIC/BUSINESS SECTOR

Q4/200 6

Q1/200 7

Q4/200 6

Q1/200 7

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and

Fisheries

100.3 126.2 56.9 66.4 2. Mining and Quarrying 96.7 98.5 43.8 43.0 3. Manufacturing 247.7 250.7 131.9 131.2 4. Electricity, Gas and Water Utilities 7.8 8.0 3.2 3.2 5. Construction 66.9 67.4 29.6 29.3 6. Trade, Hotels and Restaurants 130.3 135.0 80.0 80.7 7. Transport and Communications 61.4 60.3 33.0 32.3 8. Financial, Real Estate and Business

Services

71.5 74.0 43.9 44.4 9. Services 90.7 95.8 43.6 44.5

GDP 873.3 915.9 465.9 475.0

NON- OIL AND GAS GDP 780.4 825.8 429.3 439.7

III. GDP Structure by Economic/Business Sector, Q1/2006 and Q1/2007

Dur ing Q1/ 2007, m anufact ur ing account ed for t he lar gest share of t he econom y at 27.4 per cent , follow ed by t he t rade, hot els and rest aur ant s sect or at 14.7 per cent , agr icult ur e at 13.7 percent , m ining and quarr ying at 10.7 per cent and ser vices at 10.5 per cent . Taken t oget her, t hese five sect or s m ade up 77.0 per cent of t he GDP while t he four ot her sect ors each cont r ibut ed less t han10 percent.

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Table 3.

GDP Structure by Economic/Business Sector, 2005- 2006 and Q1/2006- 2007

(Percentages)

First Quarter ECONOMIC/BUSINESS SECTOR

2005 2006 2006 2007

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1. Agriculture, Livestock, Forestry and

Fisheries

13.0 13.0 13.6 13.7 2. Mining and Quarrying 11.1 10.6 10.5 10.7 3. Manufacturing 27.9 28.1 28.1 27.4 4. Electricity, Gas and Water Utilities 0.9 0.9 0.9 0.9 5. Construction 7.0 7.5 7.4 7.4 6. Trade. Hotels and Restaurants 15.4 14.9 14.6 14.7 7. Transport and Communications 6.4 6.8 6.8 6.6 8. Finance, Real Estate and Corporate

Services

8.4 8.1 8.3 8.1 9. Services 9.9 10.1 9.8 10.5

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

NON- OIL AND GAS GDP 88.6 89.2 88.8 90.2

IV. Expenditure- Based GDP, Q4/2006 and Q1/2007

Analy sed by expendit ur es side, I ndonesia s GDP w as influenced by var ious dem and com ponent s: household consum pt ion, governm ent consum pt ion, capit al formation or investment and exports and imports.

Household consum pt ion in real t er m s ( based on const ant 2000 pr ices) eased by a t hin 0.5 per cent ( t o Rp 274.8 t r illion) in Q1/ 2007 com pared t o Q4/ 2006 ( Rp 276.2 t rillion) . The decline in household consum pt ion t ook place m ainly in non- food com m odit ies, w it h consum pt ion dow n by minus 0.84 per cent . Never t heless, household consum pt ion based on cur r ent pr ices w idened fr om Rp 571.0 trillion in Q4/2006 to Rp 581.3 trillion in Q1/2007, a rise of 1.8 percent.

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t rillion) . The decline based on const ant 2000 prices w as r ecorded m ainly in foreign and domestic means of transportation.

Exports at current prices fell from Rp 275.7 trillion in Q4/2006 to Rp 264.0 t rillion in Q1/ 2007, a dr op of minus 4.2 per cent t hat t ook place m ainly in m er chandise com m odit ies. Com par ed t o Q1/ 2006, expor t s at cur rent pr ices in Q1/2007 were up 11.1 percent.

Table 6

Distribution of GDP Expenditure Components Q4/2006 and Q1/2007

(Percentages)

Current Prices Constant 2000 Prices EXPENDITURE CATEGORY

Q4/200 6

Q1/200 7

Q4/200 6

Q1/200 7

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) 1. Household Consumption 65.4 63.5 59.3 57.8 2. Government Consumption 10.3 7.4 9.7 6.6 3. Gross Fixed Capital Formation 24.5 23.3 22.6 21.6 4. a. Change in Inventory - 0.1 0.7 - 0.1 0.6 b. Statistical Discrepancies - 6.8 0.0 - 2.6 2.1 5. Exports of Goods and Services 31.6 28.8 48.3 47.3 6. Minus Imports of Goods and

Services

24.9 23.7 37.2 36.0

GDP 100.0 100.0 100.0 100.0

Based on const ant 2000 pr ices, expor t s in Q1/ 2007 w er e dow n by minus 0.1 per cent from Q4/ 2006, easing fr om Rp 224.8 t r illion t o Rp 224.7 t rillion. When m easur ed against t he sam e quar t er in 2006, based on const ant 2000 pr ices, expor t s w er e up 8.9 percent . Ev en so, t he 28.8 per cent cont r ibut ion from export s in Q1/ 2007 cam e below t he 31.6 per cent cont r ibut ion r ecor ded in Q4/2006, and was lower even than the 30.3 percent contribution of Q1/2006. . I ndonesia s im por t s based on cur rent prices eased from Rp 217.8 trillion in Q4/ 2006 t o Rp 216.6 t r illion in Q1/ 2007, a dr op of minus 0.5 per cent . I m por t s w ere dow n m ainly for m er chandise. I n cont r ast , Q1/ 2007 im por t s based on current prices were up 8.0 percent from Q1/2006.

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V. I n don e sia s Econ om ic Gr ow t h : Se ct or a l a n d Zon a l Pr ofile

Note: THR = Trade, Hotels and Restaurants

Pr ovinces in Sum at r a w er e t he second lar gest cont ribut or at 21.96 preceding quarter and mining at 1.3 percent over Q1/2006.

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achieved 50.8 percent gr ow t h, dr iv en m ainly by t he m ining sect or . This r em arkable incr ease is explained by t he decline t hat t ook place in pr evious quarters.

I n m ost areas, agr icult ur e cont inues t o be t he engine of r egional econom ic gr ow t h, even t hough t he t r ade, hot els and r est aur ant s sect or, m anufact ur ing and m ining ar e key gr ow t h sect or s in som e pr ovinces. About 80 per cent of lar ge- scale indust r y is locat ed in Jav a, and t her efor e t his sect or provides t he m ain driving for ce for econom ic gr ow t h in t his r egion. Ev en so, m anufact ur ing gr owt h needs t o be t aken t o a higher level, and for t his r eason econom ic gr ow t h in Cent r al Java and East Java was in fact driven primarily by agriculture.

Table 8

Summary, Regional GDP in Provinces, Q1/2007

Growth (%)

PROVINCE

Q1/200 7 over Q4/200

6

Q1/200 7 over Q1/200

6

Contribution %) of Island to Indonesia

Contributing Sector to Growth by Island (%)

(q- t - q)

Contributing Sector to Growth by Island (%)

(y- o- y)

(1) (2) (3) (4) (5) (6) (7) (8)

INDONESIA 2.1 6.0 100.00 Agriculture 2.1 Manufacturing 1.5

SUMATRA 2.4 5.5 21.96 Agriculture 1.8 Manufacturing 1.3

JAVA 3.3 5.1 60.21 Agriculture 4.2 PHR 0.4

JAVA BALI 3.3 5.5 61.46 Agriculture + THR 0.4 Manufacturing 1.8

NUSA TENGGARA - 11.9 3.5 1.46 - - PHR 1.0

KALIMANTAN - 1.3 3.9 8.95 Agriculture 1.2 Mining 1.3

SULAWESI - 6.0 4.4 4.48 - - PHR 1.0

OTHERS 6.9 33.2 1.68 Mining 6.8 Mining 27.8

Gambar

Table 1 GDP Growth by Economic/Business Sector
Table 2. GDP by Economic/Business Sector
Table 3. GDP Structure by Economic/Business Sector,
Table 4 Growth Rates for Components
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