LAMPIRAN 2
Hasil Pengujian Akar Unit pada Level
1.
Operasi Pasar Terbuka
Null Hypothesis: OPT has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.712077 0.4188
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(OPT)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 14:44 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
OPT(-1) -0.118464 0.069193 -1.712077 0.0938
C 0.691059 0.405786 1.703013 0.0955
R-squared 0.061154 Mean dependent var -0.003191
Adjusted R-squared 0.040291 S.D. dependent var 0.106242
S.E. of regression 0.104080 Akaike info criterion -1.645694
Sum squared resid 0.487469 Schwarz criterion -1.566964
Log likelihood 40.67380 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.616067
F-statistic 2.931207 Durbin-Watson stat 1.426361
Prob(F-statistic) 0.093767
LAMPIRAN 3
2.Giro Wajib Minimum
Null Hypothesis: GWM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -1.885709 0.3360
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Dependent Variable: D(GWM) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:02 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
GWM(-1) -0.110875 0.058798 -1.885709 0.0658
C 0.596535 0.310240 1.922818 0.0608
R-squared 0.073233 Mean dependent var 0.012766
Adjusted R-squared 0.052638 S.D. dependent var 0.142961
S.E. of regression 0.139147 Akaike info criterion -1.064943
Sum squared resid 0.871291 Schwarz criterion -0.986214
Log likelihood 27.02617 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.035317
F-statistic 3.555898 Durbin-Watson stat 2.273862
Prob(F-statistic) 0.065799
LAMPIRAN 4
3.Tingkat Suku Bunga Fasilitas Diskonto (rDiskonto)
Null Hypothesis: RDISKONTO has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.599742 0.8608
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RDISKONTO) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:07 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RDISKONTO(-1) -0.024523 0.040890 -0.599742 0.5517
C 0.143815 0.434009 0.331365 0.7419
R-squared 0.007930 Mean dependent var -0.103404
Adjusted R-squared -0.014116 S.D. dependent var 0.924618
S.E. of regression 0.931121 Akaike info criterion 2.736767
Sum squared resid 39.01441 Schwarz criterion 2.815497
Log likelihood -62.31402 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.766393
F-statistic 0.359691 Durbin-Watson stat 0.581174
LAMPIRAN 5
4. Tingkat bunga domestik (rDOM)
Null Hypothesis: RDOM has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.497233 0.8825
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RDOM)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:11 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
RDOM(-1) -0.017969 0.036138 -0.497233 0.6214
C 0.162371 0.544847 0.298012 0.7671
R-squared 0.005464 Mean dependent var -0.106383
Adjusted R-squared -0.016637 S.D. dependent var 0.467065
S.E. of regression 0.470934 Akaike info criterion 1.373424
Sum squared resid 9.980052 Schwarz criterion 1.452154
Log likelihood -30.27547 Hannan-Quinn criter. 1.403051
F-statistic 0.247241 Durbin-Watson stat 0.827521
Prob(F-statistic) 0.621446
LAMPIRAN 6
5. Nilai Tukar (Exchange Rate/EXC)
Null Hypothesis: EXC has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.731251 0.0066
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:12 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
EXC(-1) -0.398937 0.106918 -3.731251 0.0005
C 1.584591 0.424299 3.734608 0.0005
R-squared 0.236282 Mean dependent var 0.001489
Adjusted R-squared 0.219310 S.D. dependent var 0.029853
S.E. of regression 0.026377 Akaike info criterion -4.391007
Sum squared resid 0.031309 Schwarz criterion -4.312278
Log likelihood 105.1887 Hannan-Quinn criter. -4.361381
F-statistic 13.92224 Durbin-Watson stat 1.920976
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000532
LAMPIRAN 7
6. Ekspor
Null Hypothesis: EXPOR has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic 0.476388 0.9841
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(EXPOR) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:14 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
EXPOR(-1) 0.013909 0.029198 0.476388 0.6361
C -0.046021 0.124413 -0.369908 0.7132
R-squared 0.005018 Mean dependent var 0.013191
Adjusted R-squared -0.017093 S.D. dependent var 0.036778
S.E. of regression 0.037091 Akaike info criterion -3.709253
Sum squared resid 0.061909 Schwarz criterion -3.630523
Log likelihood 89.16745 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.679626
F-statistic 0.226946 Durbin-Watson stat 1.852659
LAMPIRAN 8
7. Impor
Null Hypothesis: IMP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.501096 0.8817
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(IMP)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:15 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
IMP(-1) -0.016657 0.033241 -0.501096 0.6187
C 0.086552 0.136505 0.634059 0.5293
R-squared 0.005549 Mean dependent var 0.018298
Adjusted R-squared -0.016550 S.D. dependent var 0.060982
S.E. of regression 0.061484 Akaike info criterion -2.698447
Sum squared resid 0.170115 Schwarz criterion -2.619717
Log likelihood 65.41351 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.668821
F-statistic 0.251097 Durbin-Watson stat 2.052197
LAMPIRAN 9
8. Investasi (INV)
Null Hypothesis: INV has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -0.915957 0.7745
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INV)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:16 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
INV(-1) -0.049631 0.054184 -0.915957 0.3646
C 0.205863 0.223100 0.922738 0.3611
R-squared 0.018303 Mean dependent var 0.001702
Adjusted R-squared -0.003513 S.D. dependent var 0.065684
S.E. of regression 0.065800 Akaike info criterion -2.562785
Sum squared resid 0.194831 Schwarz criterion -2.484055
Log likelihood 62.22544 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.533158
F-statistic 0.838977 Durbin-Watson stat 1.014381
LAMPIRAN 10
9. Pengangguran (UNEMP)
Null Hypothesis: UNEMP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.801618 0.0003
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented
Dickey-Fuller Test Equation
Dependent Variable: D(UNEMP) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:18 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
V i bl C ffi i t Std E t-Statistic Prob.
UNEMP( 1) C 0 146217 0.934256 0 030452 0.193657 -4.801618 0.0000
4.824283 0.0000
R d 0 338775 M
Adjusted R-squared 0.324081 S.D. dependent var 0.004468
S.E. of regression 0.017297 Akaike info criterion 0.021039
Sum squared resid 0.013464 Schwarz criterion -5.234925
Log likelihood 125.0207 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.156196
F-statistic 23.05553 Durbin-Watson stat -5.205299
LAMPIRAN 11
10. Neraca Pembayaran (Balance of Payment/ BOP)
Null Hypothesis: BOP has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.758513 0.0061
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(BOP)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:20 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
BOP(-1) -0.513782 0.136698 -3.758513 0.0005
C 1.298722 0.406861 3.192050 0.0026
R-squared 0.238919 Mean dependent var -0.073404
Adjusted R-squared 0.222006 S.D. dependent var 1.396001
S.E. of regression 1.231328 Akaike info criterion 3.295685
Sum squared resid 68.22762 Schwarz criterion 3.374415
Log likelihood -75.44860 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.325312
F-statistic 14.12642 Durbin-Watson stat 1.649711
LAMPIRAN 12
11. Inflasi (INF)
Null Hypothesis: INF has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.474209 0.1281
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INF)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:21 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
INF(-1) -0.206890 0.083619 -2.474209 0.0172
C 1.741156 0.742321 2.345557 0.0235
R-squared 0.119748 Mean dependent var 0.075957
Adjusted R-squared 0.100187 S.D. dependent var 2.263421
S.E. of regression 2.147047 Akaike info criterion 4.407685
Sum squared resid 207.4414 Schwarz criterion 4.486414
Log likelihood -101.5806 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.437311
F-statistic 6.121712 Durbin-Watson stat 1.119250
LAMPIRAN 13
12. Pertumbuhan (GROW)
Null Hypothesis: GROW has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.264591 0.1874
Test critical values: 1% level -3.577723
5% level -2.925169
10% level -2.600658
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GROW) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:24 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q2 2011Q4 Included observations: 47 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
GROW(-1) -0.210613 0.093003 -2.264591 0.0284
C 1.131792 0.484157 2.337657 0.0239
R-squared 0.102305 Mean dependent var 0.067660
Adjusted R-squared 0.082356 S.D. dependent var 0.834639
S.E. of regression 0.799532 Akaike info criterion 2.432041
Sum squared resid 28.76632 Schwarz criterion 2.510771
Log likelihood -55.15297 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.461668
F-statistic 5.128372 Durbin-Watson stat 1.970714
Prob(F-statistic) 0.028403
LAMPIRAN 14
HASIL PENGUJIAN AKAR UNIT PADA FIRST DIFFERENCE
1.
Operasi Pasar Terbuka (OPT)
Null Hypothesis: D(OPT) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.006221 0.0002
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
Dependent Variable: D(OPT,2) Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:26 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(OPT(-1)) -0.768629 0.153535 -5.006221 0.0000
C -0.003997 0.015612 -0.256055 0.7991
R-squared 0.362894 Mean dependent var -0.005000
Adjusted R-squared 0.348414 S.D. dependent var 0.131161
S.E. of regression 0.105875 Akaike info criterion -1.610616
Sum squared resid 0.493216 Schwarz criterion -1.531110
Log likelihood 39.04417 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.580833
F-statistic 25.06224 Durbin-Watson stat 1.887374
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000009
LAMPIRAN 15
2.
Giro Wajib Minimum
Null Hypothesis: D(GWM) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -8.402730 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GWM,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:29 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(GWM(-1)) -1.375815 0.163734 -8.402730 0.0000
C 0.021486 0.020714 1.037291 0.3053
R-squared 0.616076 Mean dependent var -0.010217
Adjusted R-squared 0.607350 S.D. dependent var 0.220449
S.E. of regression 0.138137 Akaike info criterion -1.078633
Sum squared resid 0.839604 Schwarz criterion -0.999127
Log likelihood 26.80856 Hannan-Quinn criter. -1.048850
F-statistic 70.60587 Durbin-Watson stat 1.991989
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
3.
Tingkat Suku Bunga Diskonto (rDiskonto)
Null Hypothesis: D(RDISKONTO) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.771953 0.0702
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RDISKONTO,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:33 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(RDISKONTO(-1)) -0.296993 0.107142 -2.771953 0.0081
C -0.048938 0.099274 -0.492952 0.6245
R-squared 0.148668 Mean dependent var -0.021304
Adjusted R-squared 0.129320 S.D. dependent var 0.717937
S.E. of regression 0.669909 Akaike info criterion 2.079155
Sum squared resid 19.74623 Schwarz criterion 2.158661
Log likelihood -45.82056 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.108938
F-statistic 7.683726 Durbin-Watson stat 1.598621
Prob(F-statistic) 0.008137
LAMPIRAN 17
4.
Tingkat Suku Bunga Domestik (rDOM)
Null Hypothesis: D(RDOM) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=9)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.577325 0.0101
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(RDOM,2) Method: Least Squares
Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(RDOM(-1)) -0.434482 0.121454 -3.577325 0.0009
C -0.033862 0.058193 -0.581886 0.5636
R-squared 0.225315 Mean dependent var 0.012609
Adjusted R-squared 0.207708 S.D. dependent var 0.432226
S.E. of regression 0.384728 Akaike info criterion 0.969945
Sum squared resid 6.512692 Schwarz criterion 1.049451
Log likelihood -20.30874 Hannan-Quinn criter. 0.999729
F-statistic 12.79725 Durbin-Watson stat 1.684806
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000859
LAMPIRAN 18
5.
Ekspor (Ekspor)
Null Hypothesis: D(EXPOR) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -6.123948 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(EXPOR,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:37 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(EXPOR(-1)) -0.916670 0.149686 -6.123948 0.0000
C 0.011540 0.005818 1.983385 0.0536
R-squared 0.460141 Mean dependent var -0.000217
Adjusted R-squared 0.447871 S.D. dependent var 0.050133
S.E. of regression 0.037251 Akaike info criterion -3.699757
Sum squared resid 0.061057 Schwarz criterion -3.620251
Log likelihood 87.09441 Hannan-Quinn criter. -3.669973
F-statistic 37.50274 Durbin-Watson stat 1.963180
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
6.
Impor (Impor)
Null Hypothesis: D(IMP) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.104607 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(IMP,2)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:39 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(IMP(-1)) -1.052969 0.148209 -7.104607 0.0000
C 0.017706 0.009435 1.876768 0.0672
R-squared 0.534271 Mean dependent var -0.001522
Adjusted R-squared 0.523686 S.D. dependent var 0.088819
S.E. of regression 0.061299 Akaike info criterion -2.703614
Sum squared resid 0.165331 Schwarz criterion -2.624108
Log likelihood 64.18312 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.673831
F-statistic 50.47545 Durbin-Watson stat 2.040425
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
LAMPIRAN 20
7.
Investasi (INV)
Null Hypothesis: D(INV) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -3.937790 0.0038
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INV,2)
Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INV(-1)) -0.522873 0.132783 -3.937790 0.0003
C 0.001438 0.008705 0.165182 0.8696
R-squared 0.260581 Mean dependent var 0.000870
Adjusted R-squared 0.243776 S.D. dependent var 0.067883
S.E. of regression 0.059032 Akaike info criterion -2.778972
Sum squared resid 0.153330 Schwarz criterion -2.699466
Log likelihood 65.91636 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.749189
F-statistic 15.50619 Durbin-Watson stat 2.017149
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000290
LAMPIRAN 21
8.
Inflasi (INF)
Null Hypothesis: D(INF) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.333778 0.0012
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(INF,2)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:42 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(INF(-1)) -0.596460 0.137630 -4.333778 0.0001
C 0.025078 0.311692 0.080457 0.9362
R-squared 0.299158 Mean dependent var -0.020435
Adjusted R-squared 0.283230 S.D. dependent var 2.495563
S.E. of regression 2.112801 Akaike info criterion 4.376411
Sum squared resid 196.4128 Schwarz criterion 4.455917
Log likelihood -98.65744 Hannan-Quinn criter. 4.406194
F-statistic 18.78163 Durbin-Watson stat 1.790767
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000084
LAMPIRAN 22
Null Hypothesis: D(GROW) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=0)
t-Statistic Prob.*
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -7.727681 0.0000
Test critical values: 1% level -3.581152
5% level -2.926622
10% level -2.601424
*MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values. Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(GROW,2) Method: Least Squares
Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:43 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob.
D(GROW(-1)) -1.126134 0.145727 -7.727681 0.0000
C 0.047842 0.121843 0.392653 0.6965
R-squared 0.575769 Mean dependent var -0.022174
Adjusted R-squared 0.566127 S.D. dependent var 1.251111
S.E. of regression 0.824095 Akaike info criterion 2.493442
Sum squared resid 29.88181 Schwarz criterion 2.572948
Log likelihood -55.34917 Hannan-Quinn criter. 2.523226
F-statistic 59.71705 Durbin-Watson stat 1.885461
Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
LAMPIRAN 23
Pengujian Lag Optimal
VAR Lag Order Selection Criteria
Endogenous variables: OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
Exogenous variables: C Date: 01/20/14 Time: 15:56 Sample: 2000Q1 2011Q4 Included observations: 46
Lag LogL LR FPE AIC SC HQ
0 43.56159 NA 4.12e-16 -1.372243 -0.895206 -1.193542
1 549.0601 725.2804 7.43e-23 -17.08957 -10.88809* -14.76646
2 777.1239 208.2322* 7.67e-24* -20.74452* -8.818594 -16.27699*
* indicates lag order selected by the criterion
LR: sequential modified LR test statistic (each test at 5% level) FPE: Final prediction error
LAMPIRAN 24
Hasil Pengujian Stabilitas VAR
Roots of Characteristic Polynomial
Endogenous variables: OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW Exogenous variables: C
Lag specification: 1 2 Date: 01/20/14 Time: 22:08
Root Modulus
1.006784 1.006784
0.205849 - 0.934313i 0.956721
0.205849 + 0.934313i 0.956721
0.874894 - 0.228079i 0.904135
0.874894 + 0.228079i 0.904135
0.807251 - 0.381880i 0.893021
0.807251 + 0.381880i 0.893021
0.683955 + 0.561162i 0.884701
0.683955 - 0.561162i 0.884701
0.815038 0.815038
0.658071 - 0.473379i 0.810645
0.658071 + 0.473379i 0.810645
-0.380770 - 0.681551i 0.780703
-0.380770 + 0.681551i 0.780703
-0.136140 - 0.745514i 0.757842
-0.136140 + 0.745514i 0.757842
-0.649719 + 0.298677i 0.715082
-0.649719 - 0.298677i 0.715082
0.174053 + 0.657347i 0.680000
0.174053 - 0.657347i 0.680000
-0.524088 0.524088
-0.389528 0.389528
0.348314 0.348314
-0.203032 0.203032
Warning: At least one root outside the unit circle. VAR does not satisfy the stability condition.
LAMPIRAN 25
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
-1.5 -1.0 -0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0 1.5
LAMPIRAN 26
Structural VAR Estimates
Structural VAR Estimates Date: 01/05/14 Time: 19:15 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Estimation method: method of scoring (analytic derivatives) Maximum iterations reached at 500 iterations
Structural VAR is over-identified (40 degrees of freedom)
Model: Ae = Bu where E[uu']=I Restriction Type: short-run text form @e1 = @u1
@e2 = @u2 @e3 = @u3 @e4 = @u4 @e5 = @u5 @e6 = @u6 @e7 = @u7 @e8 = @u8
@e9 = C(1)*@e1 + C(2)*@e2 + C(3)*@e3 + C(4)*@e4 + C(5)*@e5 + C(6)*@e6 + C(7)*@e7 + C(8)*@e8 + @u9
@e10 = C(9)*@e1 + C(10)*@e2 + C(11)*@e3 + C(12)*@e4 + C(13)*@e5 + C(14)*@e6 + C(15)*@e7 + C(16)*@e8 + C(17)*@e9 + @u10
@e11 = C(18)*@e1 + C(19)*@e2 + C(20)*@e3 + C(21)*@e4 + C(22)*@e5 + C(23)*@e6 + C(24)*@e7 + C(25)*@e8 + C(26)*@e9 + C(27)*@e10 + @u11
@e12 = C(28)*@e1 + C(29)*@e2 + C(30)*@e3 + C(31)*@e4 + C(32)*@e5 + C(33)*@e6 + C(34)*@e7 + C(35)*@e8 + C(36)*@e9 + C(37)*@e10 + C(38)*@e11 + @u12
Where
@e5 represents EXC residuals @e6 represents EXPOR residuals @e7 represents IMP residuals @e8 represents INV residuals @e9 represents UNEMP residuals @e10 represents BOP residuals @e11 represents INF residuals @e12 represents GROW residuals
WARNING: B matrix is fixed (structural innovation variances not estimated)!!!
Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C(24) -3.915003 0.730066 -5.362531 0.0000 C(25) -2.482068 0.375108 -6.616935 0.0000 C(26) 2.273196 0.509048 4.465580 0.0000 C(27) 0.309491 0.147442 2.099067 0.0358 C(28) -1.367774 0.475945 -2.873804 0.0041 C(29) -1.698417 0.163218 -10.40585 0.0000 C(30) -0.845875 0.284673 -2.971392 0.0030 C(31) 1.636008 0.389260 4.202872 0.0000 C(32) -5.090151 1.901204 -2.677330 0.0074 C(33) 5.636611 0.924896 6.094322 0.0000 C(34) -7.356434 0.930697 -7.904217 0.0000 C(35) -0.063818 0.524055 -0.121778 0.9031 C(36) 2.091569 0.609480 3.431728 0.0006 C(37) 0.126896 0.154342 0.822175 0.4110 C(38) -0.148985 0.147442 -1.010468 0.3123
Log likelihood -550.9409 LR test for over-identification:
Chi-square(40) 2223.296 Probability 0.0000
Estimated A matrix:
1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.057995 -0.013816 0.001160 0.011007 -0.108715 -0.079221 0.062665 0.209790 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 -2.045633 0.454719 1.102335 -0.078387 1.444291 0.641494 -4.849115 -2.329909 3.304541 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 2.287384 0.135935 -1.229894 -2.442088 12.77391 -6.158902 3.915003 2.482068 -2.273196 -0.309491 1.000000 0.000000 1.367774 1.698417 0.845875 -1.636008 5.090151 -5.636611 7.356434 0.063818 -2.091569 -0.126896 0.148985 1.000000 Estimated B matrix:
0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000 1.000000
LAMPIRAN 27
Response of Unemp to Cholesky
Period OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
14 -0.000586 -0.003771 0.004925 0.004754 0.000535 -0.002304 0.001819 -0.003190 -0.000172 -0.002333 0.002801 -0.000680 15 0.000736 -0.004649 0.004296 0.004432 0.000618 -0.003022 0.000883 -0.003453 -0.000734 -0.001998 0.002809 5.25E-05 16 0.001871 -0.004952 0.003515 0.003671 0.000825 -0.003746 -0.000808 -0.003520 -0.000954 -0.001892 0.001857 0.000899 17 0.002809 -0.004145 0.002697 0.002954 0.001621 -0.004400 -0.002043 -0.003364 -0.001114 -0.001865 3.82E-05 0.001674 18 0.003636 -0.002494 0.001732 0.002489 0.002655 -0.005009 -0.002889 -0.002893 -0.001297 -0.001568 -0.002015 0.002373 19 0.004029 -0.000786 0.000818 0.002288 0.003273 -0.005320 -0.003871 -0.002068 -0.001351 -0.001054 -0.003645 0.002984 20 0.003504 0.000500 0.000388 0.002254 0.003288 -0.005281 -0.004911 -0.001090 -0.001180 -0.000762 -0.004639 0.003326
LAMPIRAN 28
Response of Bop to Cholesky (df adjusted) One S.D Innovations
Period OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
12 -0.204336 -0.005543 -0.020378 -0.093092 -0.136502 0.066069 -0.320989 0.124508 0.127897 -0.103076 -0.082931 0.020484 13 -0.210789 0.206245 0.143088 -0.037510 0.094878 0.013666 0.112340 -0.000804 0.046820 -0.134108 -0.193516 -0.044068 14 0.033302 0.236731 -0.001099 -0.009580 0.133311 -0.022747 0.267191 0.015999 -0.053908 0.067274 -0.068623 -0.037310 15 0.096979 0.023472 -0.137833 -0.010450 -0.088985 0.044898 -0.005485 0.108523 -0.019635 0.172800 0.135235 -0.002126 16 -0.113875 -0.168330 -0.029573 -0.026088 -0.232629 0.115800 -0.194678 0.099204 0.078902 0.030095 0.179204 -0.026340 17 -0.241114 -0.109687 0.160201 -0.005654 -0.095670 0.088881 0.021727 -0.029619 0.072357 -0.139562 0.063168 -0.080866 18 -0.069238 0.032738 0.143045 0.021776 0.092773 0.010559 0.306943 -0.118818 -0.025652 -0.082842 -0.000194 -0.084561 19 0.163781 0.003278 -0.050292 0.014250 0.063834 -0.007012 0.231222 -0.067682 -0.069484 0.089964 0.081767 -0.028795 20 0.142660 -0.140696 -0.132243 -0.017007 -0.099444 0.043881 -0.079839 0.022761 -0.001773 0.102695 0.155995 0.007706
LAMPIRAN 29
Response of Inflation to Cholesky (df adjusted) One S.D Innovations
Period OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
9 -0.432680 0.747589 0.088790 0.238615 0.268507 -0.166357 0.183672 0.165294 -0.003210 0.006833 -0.381213 0.107397 10 -0.285340 0.235121 0.010337 0.172562 -0.174898 -0.094417 -0.122688 0.265777 -0.013669 0.156654 0.128222 0.133051 11 -0.455628 -0.228615 0.234788 0.041992 -0.505024 0.016623 -0.401499 0.153720 0.110102 -0.082724 0.381197 0.050255 12 -0.541455 -0.342612 0.427472 0.009922 -0.335886 -0.000786 -0.038597 -0.120999 0.108204 -0.290361 0.270426 -0.059231 13 -0.139458 -0.225280 0.315062 0.042857 0.019193 -0.112548 0.443530 -0.307466 -0.054893 -0.193314 0.122717 -0.067828 14 0.343172 -0.224636 0.010607 0.060480 0.072427 -0.169745 0.319211 -0.282947 -0.126704 0.030326 0.165681 0.011201 15 0.351031 -0.367875 -0.126046 0.078932 -0.100814 -0.100992 -0.167097 -0.154473 -0.008819 0.047483 0.219187 0.065943 16 0.014490 -0.344082 0.052842 0.131609 -0.089849 -0.071973 -0.322440 -0.118491 0.107283 -0.177419 0.078213 0.036753 17 -0.121582 -0.065539 0.273669 0.212204 0.163489 -0.170947 -0.036784 -0.187852 0.058872 -0.312821 -0.130260 0.001704 18 0.081694 0.129230 0.219165 0.246122 0.300830 -0.273818 0.156706 -0.175102 -0.061485 -0.153250 -0.143020 0.036559 19 0.246840 0.020816 0.020806 0.208539 0.131930 -0.267131 -0.087766 -0.035746 -0.081490 0.048425 0.013166 0.113172 20 0.117073 -0.174456 0.016657 0.146195 -0.083053 -0.200379 -0.419717 0.047414 0.001730 0.004890 0.070026 0.142292
LAMPIRAN 30
Response of Grow to Cholesky (df adjusted) One S.D Innovations
Period OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
6 -0.116975 0.074845 -0.036691 -0.052148 -0.071419 0.087270 0.026280 0.108187 0.005056 0.081135 0.115466 -0.092325 7 -0.131852 0.006579 0.013164 0.026505 -0.106393 0.126742 0.065270 0.025943 0.069030 0.019718 0.138278 -0.088035 8 -0.095377 -0.037698 0.048646 0.074328 -0.036861 0.100386 0.169154 -0.066764 0.035212 -0.058296 0.122291 -0.056860 9 0.004082 -0.046421 0.045328 0.054010 -0.010022 0.090966 0.199816 -0.111204 0.006839 -0.074695 0.125967 -0.048589 10 0.043066 -0.086001 -0.020727 0.018522 -0.036748 0.065948 0.120708 -0.104762 0.011152 -0.027640 0.136385 -0.030206 11 0.029208 -0.113843 -0.062043 -0.022889 -0.064488 0.085143 0.044524 -0.042252 0.028544 -0.001256 0.120444 -0.018454 12 -0.010598 -0.071451 -0.037922 -0.065772 -0.055194 0.058171 -0.007573 -0.004656 0.037831 -0.029431 0.075568 -0.027629 13 -0.015514 0.007927 -0.013561 -0.077387 -0.017850 0.037805 0.005118 0.007000 0.031073 -0.023749 0.027426 -0.029568 14 0.015711 0.040006 -0.052062 -0.087707 -0.006044 0.030537 0.015723 0.044414 0.019085 0.031886 0.022369 -0.028520 15 0.030243 0.036198 -0.078298 -0.079787 -0.032787 0.035595 -0.032564 0.077278 0.018293 0.056366 0.034334 -0.018270 16 -0.001586 0.021083 -0.053772 -0.071017 -0.057459 0.054302 -0.059345 0.076095 0.033533 0.038714 0.031677 -0.020921 17 -0.031534 0.024556 -0.019567 -0.056283 -0.038735 0.061166 -0.008305 0.050785 0.031897 0.014074 0.014690 -0.032870 18 -0.017839 0.038212 -0.011565 -0.039024 -0.009532 0.059974 0.061402 0.026790 0.012922 0.016858 0.008942 -0.039025 19 0.007398 0.023439 -0.028659 -0.032167 -0.013417 0.062494 0.073456 0.019292 0.002522 0.038236 0.029139 -0.036654 20 -0.000734 -0.011839 -0.035917 -0.033237 -0.039039 0.074251 0.043432 0.022429 0.009110 0.039630 0.052728 -0.035444
-.012
Response of UNEM P to OPT
-.012
Response of UNEM P to GWM
-.012
Response of UNEM P to RDISKONTO
-.012
Response of UNEM P to RDOM
-.012
Response of UNEM P to EXC
-.012
Response of UNEM P to EXPOR
-.012
Response of UNEM P to INV
-.012
Response of UNEM P to UNEM P
-.012
Response of UNEM P to BOP
-.012
Response of UNEM P to INF
-.012
Response of UNEM P to GROW
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to OPT
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to GWM
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to RDISKONTO
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to RDOM
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to EXC
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to EXPOR
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to IMP
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to INV
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to UNEMP
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to BOP
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to INF
-0.5 0.0 0.5 1.0
2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20
Response of BOP to GROW
Response to Cholesky One S.D. Innovations
-1.5
Response of INF to OPT
-1.5
Response of INF to GWM
-1.5
Response of INF to RDISKONTO
-1.5
Response of INF to RDOM
-1.5
Response of INF to EXC
-1.5
Response of INF to EXPOR
-1.5
Response of INF to IMP
-1.5
Response of INF to INV
-1.5
Response of INF to UNEMP
-1.5
Response of INF to BOP
-1.5
Response of INF to INF
-1.5
Response of INF to GROW
-.6
Response of GROW to OPT
-.6
Response of GROW to GWM
-.6
Response of GROW to RDISKONTO
-.6
Response of GROW to RDOM
-.6
Response of GROW to EXC
-.6
Response of GROW to EXPOR
-.6
Response of GROW to IMP
-.6
Response of GROW to INV
-.6
Response of GROW to UNEMP
-.6
Response of GROW to BOP
-.6
Response of GROW to INF
-.6
Response of GROW to GROW
LAMPIRAN 35
Variance Decompositionof Unemp - SVAR
Period S.E. OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
LAMPIRAN 36
Variance Decompositionof BOP - SVAR
Period S.E. OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
LAMPIRAN 37
Variance Decompositionof INF - SVAR
Period S.E. OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
20 0.247842 14.83101 13.15941 11.29475 7.319657 7.106693 3.941192 13.25782 4.085652 1.001172 4.639875 16.05114 3.311633
LAMPIRAN 38
Variance Decompositionof GROW - SVAR
Period S.E. OPT GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
14 0.225477 10.26054 6.692168 4.910388 25.90081 6.280533 6.998446 9.910257 7.045102 0.618890 5.514134 8.522373 7.346356 15 0.229150 10.15433 6.659461 5.151198 25.84055 6.241911 6.958953 9.816742 7.245931 0.626801 5.594633 8.455627 7.253864 16 0.232871 10.01082 6.587708 5.224359 25.72973 6.320356 7.009434 9.855747 7.435877 0.674722 5.591189 8.386694 7.173360 17 0.237397 9.982646 6.566594 5.202837 25.68798 6.346294 7.142296 9.782408 7.507177 0.720448 5.557549 8.332160 7.171608 18 0.241123 9.930593 6.594607 5.174110 25.58907 6.307656 7.272737 9.903522 7.491841 0.723859 5.533897 8.279473 7.198629 19 0.244631 9.854965 6.569718 5.173852 25.43832 6.266791 7.408211 10.09183 7.451125 0.718464 5.562435 8.256091 7.208188 20 0.247842 9.769838 6.519812 5.192294 25.27260 6.287244 7.614070 10.09697 7.411366 0.716318 5.591250 8.320844 7.207398
LAMPIRAN 39 .Respon of UNEMP
Period OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
1 -0.005717 0.000105 -0.001774 -0.002606 -0.000342 0.000162 0.000143 0.004989 0.005607 0.000000 0.000000 0.000000
2 -0.009729 0.000274 -0.004185 0.001228 0.000534 -2.24E-05 0.000456 0.003604 0.002928 -0.003777 0.001892 -0.000135
3 -0.010582 0.006341 -0.002193 0.005219 -0.000703 0.000898 -0.001049 0.005242 -0.000747 -0.007892 0.002396 0.001348
4 -0.009028 0.009630 -0.001859 0.003779 0.000568 -0.001158 0.000669 0.003516 -0.001025 -0.008009 0.005142 0.001132
5 -0.007576 0.008932 -0.002373 0.003622 0.001746 -0.000953 -8.78E-05 0.002067 -0.002235 -0.008240 0.007203 0.001875
6 -0.004925 0.008409 -0.004494 0.001571 -0.000422 -0.001417 -0.004009 0.001377 -0.001999 -0.005381 0.006371 0.002482
7 -0.002169 0.007998 -0.005183 0.001662 -0.000376 -0.001731 -0.005664 0.001019 -0.002010 -0.004255 0.005552 0.003276
8 -0.000981 0.006630 -0.004785 0.002077 1.74E-05 -0.001044 -0.006291 0.000858 -0.002260 -0.004082 0.004350 0.003205
9 -0.001884 0.004822 -0.004074 0.003480 -9.02E-05 -0.000322 -0.006071 0.000913 -0.002569 -0.004801 0.002743 0.002778
10 -0.002938 0.003836 -0.002782 0.004345 8.41E-05 -0.000142 -0.004978 0.000878 -0.002408 -0.005012 0.001701 0.002007
11 -0.004190 0.003013 -0.000844 0.005240 3.89E-05 -0.000619 -0.003184 0.000997 -0.002263 -0.005459 0.001484 0.001151
12 -0.004863 0.001888 0.000964 0.005050 -5.74E-05 -0.001219 -0.001890 0.001562 -0.002109 -0.005580 0.001985 0.000569
13 -0.004983 -0.000111 0.002246 0.004121 -0.000155 -0.001857 -0.001143 0.002309 -0.002048 -0.005608 0.002621 0.000122
14 -0.004576 -0.002320 0.002697 0.002897 -0.000204 -0.002191 -0.001375 0.003026 -0.002123 -0.005244 0.002960 0.000147
15 -0.003894 -0.004328 0.002626 0.001908 -0.000182 -0.002334 -0.002123 0.003403 -0.002232 -0.004674 0.002794 0.000502
16 -0.003291 -0.005681 0.002278 0.001437 -2.32E-06 -0.002102 -0.003147 0.003447 -0.002483 -0.004179 0.002333 0.001171
17 -0.002959 -0.006279 0.001840 0.001421 0.000176 -0.001668 -0.004126 0.003174 -0.002791 -0.003793 0.001653 0.001898
19 -0.003083 -0.005590 0.001144 0.002201 0.000423 -0.000827 -0.005225 0.002035 -0.003223 -0.003117 0.000509 0.003170
20 -0.003383 -0.004942 0.000968 0.002565 0.000362 -0.000612 -0.005351 0.001468 -0.003258 -0.002759 0.000249 0.003550
LAMPIRAN 40 . Respon of BOP
Period OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
1 0.088834 -0.031314 -0.036831 -0.084591 0.036852 -0.046730 0.063631 -0.162532 0.140661 0.381960 0.000000 0.000000
2 -0.132916 -0.227945 0.082127 0.150541 -0.172359 -0.045424 0.111583 -0.019591 0.076046 0.031827 -0.073553 0.007867
3 -0.016895 -0.102217 -0.010847 -0.184847 -0.044904 0.070970 -0.005500 0.108574 0.051259 0.023073 0.014320 -0.032404
4 -0.057469 -0.096999 -0.017084 -0.055058 -0.020705 -0.008972 0.115567 0.062280 0.007063 -0.056781 -0.055230 -0.107303
5 -0.006689 0.019737 -0.028085 -0.038942 0.019478 -0.020639 0.046906 0.008005 0.054065 0.092279 -0.027561 -0.017543
6 -0.032514 -0.047183 0.047931 -0.002080 0.010599 -0.049861 0.090388 -0.017856 0.053625 0.021881 0.012296 -0.047481
7 -0.034301 -0.009250 0.010964 -0.022641 -0.012064 0.015753 -0.003248 0.038596 -0.005307 -0.014629 0.028103 -0.012918
8 0.021573 0.011345 -0.017722 -0.043514 -0.013036 -0.021921 0.018192 0.021932 0.011029 0.007243 -0.009641 -0.027651
9 0.049675 0.039361 -0.029067 -0.013781 0.030628 -0.003957 0.023703 -0.003704 0.007830 0.009621 0.015512 0.004829
10 0.043457 0.032523 -0.031994 -0.012343 0.009511 0.013223 0.001083 -0.015796 0.006085 0.007805 0.007426 -0.000530
11 0.027428 0.049386 -0.038087 0.004099 -0.000968 0.026165 -0.011150 -0.014006 -0.002424 -0.002142 -0.003632 0.003360
12 0.029609 0.066153 -0.027305 0.002809 0.004142 0.017057 0.009671 -0.024846 0.007909 0.007892 -0.012326 -0.009283
13 0.019123 0.070233 -0.012580 0.015433 0.004535 0.011356 0.028306 -0.027266 0.011038 0.002939 -0.006315 -0.012921
14 0.018950 0.064363 -0.002922 0.002901 0.000204 0.007639 0.031017 -0.019616 0.016042 0.006165 0.001493 -0.019181
15 0.017287 0.048644 0.003882 -0.002950 -0.002302 0.002519 0.036098 -0.009741 0.015877 0.001609 0.006783 -0.024788
16 0.020523 0.033253 0.006035 -0.012097 -0.001295 0.000207 0.035204 -0.002546 0.016945 0.004596 0.008329 -0.026181
17 0.021129 0.017265 0.007098 -0.014963 -0.000358 -0.001383 0.034411 0.000896 0.016734 0.003346 0.007109 -0.026165
18 0.022717 0.010991 0.005020 -0.017215 0.001430 0.001504 0.027723 0.003314 0.014312 0.002901 0.005407 -0.022544
19 0.024056 0.011036 0.002962 -0.015893 0.002826 0.003016 0.023267 0.002458 0.011766 0.002011 0.002250 -0.018999
LAMPIRAN 41. Respon of INF
Period OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
1 -0.327282 0.242409 0.714196 -0.294782 -0.289299 -0.160880 0.046633 0.270200 0.132917 -0.015038 1.119981 0.000000
2 -0.602375 -0.819976 0.392459 -0.451515 -0.220576 -0.187430 0.014694 0.206899 -0.088188 0.094119 0.675588 -0.038072
3 -0.251437 -1.137610 -0.115907 -0.643612 -0.340521 -0.248475 -0.335565 0.218044 0.096388 0.302318 -0.084365 0.124945
4 0.359551 -0.420497 -0.577805 -0.731595 -0.019589 -0.136364 -0.682354 0.139493 0.102105 0.409958 -0.068880 0.365396
5 0.428767 0.135821 -0.586865 -0.175075 0.110954 0.079405 -0.799637 0.050754 -0.146610 0.187632 -0.117289 0.511320
6 0.087105 0.288169 -0.468343 0.250509 0.133279 0.244568 -0.699189 -0.102935 -0.210652 0.042492 -0.186818 0.535494
7 -0.355348 0.248346 -0.309621 0.475014 0.121463 0.304177 -0.389237 -0.249903 -0.196989 -0.147202 -0.197743 0.358035
8 -0.557674 0.461053 -0.241773 0.491580 -0.047735 0.204191 -0.198946 -0.266333 -0.132410 -0.133154 -0.182884 0.201746
9 -0.444163 0.654359 -0.114832 0.378827 -0.111158 -0.044384 0.034417 -0.215427 -0.002765 -0.038097 -0.032673 0.087044
10 -0.295179 0.507146 0.023939 0.200345 -0.082148 -0.166476 0.161850 -0.081990 0.047782 -0.045395 0.199974 -0.002186
11 -0.233764 0.111669 0.043337 0.011206 -0.122610 -0.175894 0.098880 0.092599 0.037666 -0.081498 0.264829 -0.086629
12 -0.180171 -0.215117 0.000940 -0.092573 -0.130318 -0.174575 0.011397 0.202338 0.034945 -0.076129 0.183218 -0.132880
13 -0.132394 -0.358181 0.005102 -0.072549 -0.080873 -0.173024 -0.008383 0.226133 0.029415 -0.085610 0.083164 -0.141509
14 -0.118993 -0.358368 0.048348 0.008855 -0.027075 -0.141125 -0.010930 0.223414 -0.006163 -0.144482 0.029478 -0.116010
15 -0.118276 -0.296026 0.092947 0.072651 0.018493 -0.099086 -0.009141 0.209562 -0.053050 -0.211576 0.019642 -0.085244
16 -0.116711 -0.224065 0.120000 0.112181 0.050232 -0.068368 -0.005690 0.176887 -0.091502 -0.245671 0.034275 -0.051515
17 -0.103300 -0.169584 0.127549 0.121639 0.058748 -0.053827 -0.017257 0.132161 -0.108864 -0.231893 0.055174 -0.012606
18 -0.078842 -0.142203 0.118275 0.104985 0.049874 -0.045161 -0.049214 0.093087 -0.113723 -0.194598 0.071828 0.027400
19 -0.048265 -0.134338 0.092867 0.072990 0.034540 -0.034296 -0.096829 0.066628 -0.114210 -0.148880 0.072330 0.063529
LAMPIRAN 42 . Respon of GROW
Period OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF GROW
1 -0.049266 0.024345 -0.346519 0.192261 -0.200765 0.217066 -0.211664 -0.213478 -0.006846 0.170601 0.214157 0.398920
2 0.036313 0.015705 -0.166997 -0.128872 -0.215825 0.193909 -0.044799 -0.121011 0.015754 0.029096 0.096554 0.065656
3 -0.033977 0.235391 -0.289668 -0.127728 -0.196308 0.130562 -0.048280 -0.096947 -0.001828 0.076203 -0.045353 0.031633
4 0.105444 0.235548 -0.204507 -0.199503 -0.042429 -0.033441 0.029615 -0.172056 0.173563 0.290322 -0.114947 -0.036212
5 0.013226 0.148513 -0.068647 -0.065067 -0.026942 -0.046620 0.030250 -0.115224 0.146208 0.193731 -0.034548 -0.051332
6 -0.038525 0.078227 0.002895 -0.046527 -0.072420 -0.027254 -0.014968 0.020895 0.094998 0.117135 -0.040329 -0.072225
7 -0.069804 -0.013653 0.055872 0.001007 -0.026547 -0.054933 0.110815 0.072144 0.071716 0.006598 -0.032792 -0.107466
8 -0.073864 -0.052027 0.057435 0.005346 0.021126 -0.031112 0.160342 0.079634 0.050897 -0.046899 0.009521 -0.106692
9 -0.064020 -0.044376 0.033506 0.001038 0.000524 -0.027336 0.144270 0.073688 0.035054 -0.069953 0.027048 -0.100317
10 -0.013167 0.012706 0.012202 -0.016786 0.007350 -0.022081 0.105895 0.061448 0.021361 -0.060095 0.051198 -0.072951
11 0.029774 0.037110 0.005162 -0.026062 0.015288 -0.021006 0.081257 0.036382 0.011646 -0.050404 0.057225 -0.057515
12 0.056388 0.048207 -0.013154 -0.029501 0.017702 -0.003916 0.037803 0.017622 0.002220 -0.035534 0.049099 -0.032473
13 0.077069 0.057669 -0.028208 -0.030478 0.016671 0.007079 0.006538 -0.001542 0.001355 -0.017263 0.027738 -0.018362
14 0.082676 0.076217 -0.033027 -0.013393 0.018278 0.018528 -0.008016 -0.016309 -0.001424 -0.008260 0.010473 -0.004275
15 0.076169 0.088720 -0.026609 0.001472 0.018280 0.025667 -0.006231 -0.027352 -0.000130 -0.003608 -0.001164 0.000766
16 0.057823 0.090891 -0.016165 0.013224 0.016434 0.030315 0.004422 -0.031983 0.000838 -0.006161 -0.004402 9.36E-05
17 0.040722 0.087457 -0.007069 0.013309 0.011056 0.028743 0.015429 -0.031749 0.004795 -0.003800 -0.004167 -0.005070
18 0.029060 0.079191 0.000750 0.008533 0.005593 0.021080 0.026122 -0.028264 0.010090 0.000709 -0.000490 -0.010157
19 0.024461 0.065720 0.005867 -0.001850 0.002054 0.013312 0.031128 -0.021791 0.014703 0.006300 0.005227 -0.013472
LAMPIRAN 43 Variance Decomposition of Unemp
Period S.E. OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF
1 0.085082 32.97734 0.011223 3.174996 6.853388 0.118098 0.026412 0.020752 25.10650 31.71129 0.000000 0.000000
2 0.113654 50.37392 0.034174 8.171714 3.283886 0.159153 0.010554 0.090364 14.98217 15.82647 5.643564 1.416779
3 0.136465 44.54125 7.499908 4.739554 6.614776 0.166976 0.155019 0.247313 12.16215 7.550000 14.24656 1.735096
4 0.161158 38.34397 15.90115 3.456681 5.955109 0.145846 0.259825 0.212328 9.287962 4.973991 16.81597 4.274683
5 0.174124 33.49587 18.84870 3.060250 5.574331 0.378028 0.272964 0.158016 7.260781 4.127992 18.47308 7.762770
6 0.184370 29.88745 21.05585 4.065574 4.857298 0.330171 0.377903 1.326011 6.229044 3.758094 17.63990 9.522766
7 0.193080 26.35649 22.49463 5.282469 4.412767 0.296952 0.523460 3.232564 5.496932 3.537344 16.54788 10.29597
8 0.200825 23.87657 22.90124 6.113454 4.240467 0.268394 0.536796 5.236877 5.011078 3.495771 15.93007 10.41237
9 0.207615 22.28277 22.44673 6.554677 4.578755 0.248759 0.502246 6.839792 4.681351 3.591497 15.98598 10.04068
10 0.212262 21.43445 21.89926 6.570288 5.276807 0.234737 0.474232 7.707950 4.449963 3.679520 16.34287 9.607646
11 0.216395 21.19729 21.22820 6.271557 6.338346 0.222905 0.468744 7.807683 4.272392 3.740893 16.95642 9.226971
12 0.220377 21.30087 20.40311 6.022101 7.219948 0.212667 0.515457 7.608616 4.185851 3.771732 17.60312 8.978731
13 0.224465 21.46122 19.50782 5.980280 7.652340 0.204390 0.644990 7.332174 4.237323 3.791210 18.21774 8.887673
14 0.228274 21.45104 18.92149 6.038427 7.688010 0.197620 0.821132 7.106234 4.447678 3.823647 18.62060 8.887280
15 0.231415 21.18839 18.90701 6.070994 7.521022 0.190878 1.008492 6.998304 4.735430 3.869204 18.74473 8.840205
16 0.233977 20.72821 19.37494 6.020220 7.288468 0.182940 1.138326 7.092130 5.000332 3.947963 18.64385 8.684068
17 0.236292 20.18949 20.03524 5.895092 7.059557 0.176456 1.194472 7.430446 5.166926 4.073331 18.40188 8.423567
18 0.238528 19.67972 20.57865 5.730291 6.886019 0.173512 1.197025 7.969971 5.212310 4.245821 18.08932 8.119179
19 0.240686 19.26461 20.87740 5.559227 6.793068 0.173112 1.175392 8.608548 5.158259 4.442952 17.74150 7.821941
20 0.242785 18.96945 20.95660 5.395557 6.773371 0.171406 1.146644 9.257257 5.049013 4.639477 17.37250 7.549908
Period S.E. OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF
1 0.085082 3.635491 0.451731 0.624928 3.296431 0.625649 1.005985 1.865272 12.16965 9.114761 67.21010 0.000000
2 0.113654 6.852478 14.19374 2.172077 7.994681 8.329168 1.138687 4.423773 7.185574 6.855224 39.38749 1.450514
3 0.136465 5.856465 14.36438 1.862521 14.50016 7.496833 2.103830 3.745868 8.744680 6.389514 33.41131 1.272456
4 0.161158 5.913218 14.76902 1.726689 13.59670 6.798734 1.899847 6.063206 8.615868 5.730523 30.56657 1.758069
5 0.174124 5.710121 14.31610 1.819124 13.40622 6.629370 1.915106 6.276357 8.319727 6.097004 31.13721 1.843677
6 0.184370 5.668188 14.13149 2.173153 12.84348 6.371747 2.300475 7.543509 8.029745 6.379573 29.91803 1.794507
7 0.193080 5.834139 14.01652 2.175346 12.81973 6.339766 2.325242 7.475617 8.231951 6.325728 29.68073 1.924512
8 0.200825 5.862901 13.90371 2.211907 13.04303 6.309283 2.390944 7.463675 8.240238 6.286504 29.40140 1.922864
9 0.207615 6.236321 14.00830 2.337169 12.91181 6.399407 2.363412 7.470834 8.138047 6.217771 29.04470 1.942113
10 0.212262 6.522378 14.07785 2.501218 12.82789 6.360508 2.374496 7.406629 8.112779 6.170823 28.80523 1.935292
11 0.216395 6.590155 14.36936 2.734210 12.70065 6.296101 2.472333 7.353578 8.065357 6.109222 28.51361 1.917994
12 0.220377 6.658681 14.95208 2.829769 12.53707 6.217337 2.491368 7.274507 8.069126 6.040866 28.15420 1.919793
13 0.224465 6.632873 15.60728 2.819295 12.41037 6.137584 2.480349 7.315997 8.089933 5.981043 27.77839 1.900982
14 0.228274 6.619501 16.14133 2.788900 12.27157 6.068236 2.462329 7.398313 8.064501 5.957591 27.47101 1.879883
15 0.231415 6.613887 16.40606 2.767688 12.16844 6.017408 2.442418 7.556807 8.011890 5.949664 27.23727 1.871680
16 0.233977 6.640113 16.48141 2.755049 12.11054 5.976838 2.425843 7.714792 7.958590 5.957762 27.05592 1.870687
17 0.236292 6.679047 16.44200 2.748554 12.08240 5.944413 2.412995 7.871795 7.915521 5.972450 26.91092 1.869021
18 0.238528 6.737511 16.39365 2.741309 12.08159 5.919969 2.403312 7.967517 7.884353 5.981806 26.80012 1.866117
19 0.240686 6.811121 16.35835 2.733473 12.08272 5.901221 2.396677 8.030730 7.858617 5.984593 26.70989 1.860631
LAMPIRAN 45 . Variance Decomposition of INF
Period S.E. OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF
1 0.085082 4.825229 2.647106 22.97788 3.914491 3.770237 1.165952 0.097964 3.288855 0.795862 0.010187 56.50624
2 0.113654 11.15183 17.34872 15.75834 6.899455 3.140464 1.447761 0.056725 2.748160 0.603760 0.215564 40.59483
3 0.136465 8.252969 31.34826 10.48720 10.91230 3.843345 1.900020 1.779939 2.528537 0.537640 1.555287 26.59042
4 0.161158 7.833760 26.04012 11.95987 14.66588 2.940749 1.671452 6.865691 2.161830 0.534025 3.175591 20.37046
5 0.174124 8.440773 22.14693 13.52231 12.67531 2.603091 1.472633 12.16805 1.849037 0.664791 3.029509 17.31820
6 0.184370 7.527266 20.30660 13.88527 11.75627 2.457330 1.828855 15.06420 1.727676 0.978745 2.693550 15.61436
7 0.193080 7.902995 19.07089 13.47323 12.57228 2.366572 2.418785 15.00016 2.083773 1.208095 2.638389 14.59708
8 0.200825 9.571257 19.10914 12.82033 13.35002 2.192669 2.532852 14.08424 2.441597 1.240664 2.557112 13.66820
9 0.207615 10.37663 20.95629 12.14882 13.55551 2.148238 2.395757 13.25380 2.619740 1.166837 2.414957 12.86171
10 0.212262 10.61640 21.98785 11.74604 13.37224 2.121803 2.502308 12.98667 2.577347 1.143164 2.348009 12.70066
11 0.216395 10.82477 21.75070 11.58759 13.17849 2.190750 2.671330 12.86262 2.596780 1.135950 2.357945 12.98154
12 0.220377 10.87134 21.72038 11.41024 13.03282 2.268262 2.829713 12.66661 2.824723 1.126549 2.359750 13.00235
13 0.224465 10.79264 22.16227 11.20964 12.83731 2.270362 2.972222 12.44418 3.103488 1.112285 2.365306 12.81799
14 0.228274 10.71096 22.62258 11.04661 12.63418 2.238983 3.050976 12.24754 3.369789 1.094881 2.459748 12.62016
15 0.231415 10.64799 22.85162 10.94559 12.48995 2.209725 3.069398 12.07636 3.596270 1.097073 2.704274 12.44564
16 0.233977 10.59951 22.87668 10.89821 12.41220 2.197797 3.060026 11.92649 3.744176 1.134976 3.042174 12.29821
17 0.236292 10.55897 22.82408 10.88880 12.37875 2.196939 3.047205 11.80952 3.813326 1.195896 3.339580 12.19427
18 0.238528 10.51752 22.77552 10.89190 12.35274 2.195537 3.036729 11.73575 3.837189 1.265167 3.543624 12.13418
19 0.240686 10.47144 22.75395 10.88154 12.31421 2.190169 3.026455 11.72510 3.841966 1.336385 3.656681 12.09633
20 0.242785 10.42255 22.75274 10.84909 12.26607 2.182306 3.014493 11.78883 3.835552 1.403174 3.701750 12.05376
Period S.E. OPT5 GWM RDISKONTO RDOM EXC EXPOR IMP INV UNEMP BOP INF
1 0.085082 0.424313 0.103610 20.99181 6.462169 7.046471 8.237194 7.832322 7.967172 0.008193 5.088129 8.017927
2 0.113654 0.510576 0.114406 20.16862 7.302339 11.84340 11.54781 6.380400 8.208038 0.040220 4.082594 7.522314
3 0.136465 0.506949 5.819222 23.98835 7.230170 12.97581 10.52813 5.083769 7.202112 0.030872 3.699383 5.922106
4 0.161158 1.254237 8.748426 21.42994 8.588452 9.961505 8.055622 3.916246 7.768713 2.382045 9.399409 5.516599
5 0.174124 1.166543 9.637729 20.05576 8.206655 9.217216 7.568016 3.669001 8.103890 3.731500 11.35149 5.161443
6 0.184370 1.232602 9.755207 19.41289 8.094300 9.287192 7.377001 3.566910 7.874335 4.241031 11.94399 5.109253
7 0.193080 1.522255 9.456969 19.00508 7.836467 9.038855 7.345655 4.282212 7.974790 4.453097 11.56636 5.019049
8 0.200825 1.815525 9.257131 18.46469 7.527322 8.709072 7.116885 5.778910 8.069405 4.444300 11.24993 4.825740
9 0.207615 2.014484 9.083873 17.94308 7.286033 8.429841 6.935577 6.899635 8.151384 4.378903 11.19626 4.716911
10 0.212262 1.990015 8.935292 17.63912 7.176247 8.286053 6.844596 7.470568 8.241917 4.330612 11.22351 4.796196
11 0.216395 2.018744 8.905828 17.41709 7.126605 8.195219 6.784671 7.777757 8.217986 4.283960 11.23585 4.934718
12 0.220377 2.194456 8.974368 17.28717 7.121718 8.148091 6.730916 7.801360 8.170503 4.249731 11.22154 5.040505
13 0.224465 2.533555 9.104976 17.20257 7.122887 8.102401 6.682419 7.744231 8.108131 4.217326 11.15353 5.048038
14 0.228274 2.916691 9.368171 17.11289 7.069586 8.049492 6.642806 7.678515 8.051126 4.179580 11.05744 5.009227
15 0.231415 3.230164 9.741976 16.99171 7.002446 7.992553 6.618347 7.607737 8.018520 4.139813 10.95299 4.961644
16 0.233977 3.398168 10.14237 16.86493 6.954119 7.941504 6.616630 7.545292 8.011160 4.105253 10.86366 4.921305
17 0.236292 3.470977 10.51604 16.75247 6.916811 7.894263 6.619224 7.507470 8.014750 4.078504 10.79019 4.888647
18 0.238528 3.500929 10.82068 16.66224 6.883740 7.853533 6.609163 7.506335 8.017592 4.062396 10.73209 4.862323
19 0.240686 3.521109 11.02477 16.59686 6.856109 7.822027 6.592613 7.531589 8.012427 4.058378 10.69098 4.844234
20 0.242785 3.541677 11.12552 16.55335 6.845956 7.800389 6.577994 7.562092 8.001213 4.062916 10.66657 4.835014
LAMPIRAN 47. HASIL ESTMASI SVAR SETELAH SHOCK OPT 5% TAHUN 2010
Date: 02/21/14 Time: 15:55 Sample (adjusted): 2000Q3 2011Q4 Included observations: 46 after adjustments
Estimation method: method of scoring (analytic derivatives) Maximum iterations reached at 500 iterations
Structural VAR is over-identified (40 degrees of freedom)
Model: Ae = Bu where E[uu']=I Restriction Type: short-run text form @e1 = @u1
@e2 = @u2 @e3 = @u3 @e4 = @u4 @e5 = @u5 @e6 = @u6 @e7 = @u7 @e8 = @u8
@e9 = C(1)*@e1 + C(2)*@e2 + C(3)*@e3 + C(4)*@e4 + C(5)*@e5 + C(6)*@e6 + C(7)*@e7 + C(8)*@u8+@u9
@e10 = C(9)*@e1 + C(10)*@e2 + C(11)*@e3 + C(12)*@e4 + C(13)*@e5 + C(14)*@e6 + C(15)*@e7 + C(16)*@e8 + C(17)*@e9 + @u10
@e11 = C(18)*@e1 + C(19)*@e2 + C(20)*@e3 + C(21)*@e4 + C(22)*@e5 + C(23)*@e6 + C(24)*@e7 + C(25)*@e8 + C(26)*@e9 + C(27)*@e10+@u11
@e12 = C(28)*@e1 + C(29)*@e2 + C(30)*@e3 + C(31)*@e4 + C(32)*@e5 + C(33)*@e6 + C(34)*@e7 + C(35)*@e8 + C(36)*@e9 + C(37)*@e10+C(38)*@e11+ @u12 where
@e12 represents GROW residuals
Coefficient Std. Error z-Statistic Prob.
C(1) -0.089422 0.147442 -0.606488 0.5442
C(2) 0.019671 0.147442 0.133418 0.8939
C(3) -0.002912 0.147442 -0.019751 0.9842
C(4) -0.005678 0.147442 -0.038511 0.9693
C(5) 0.092634 0.147442 0.628277 0.5298
C(6) 0.065234 0.147442 0.442440 0.6582
C(7) 0.030633 0.147442 0.207760 0.8354
C(9) 0.993883 0.148030 6.714050 0.0000
C(10) -0.862430 0.147470 -5.848154 0.0000
C(11) 0.193802 0.147443 1.314426 0.1887
C(12) -0.976476 0.147444 -6.622679 0.0000
C(13) 0.133189 0.148073 0.899484 0.3684
C(14) -0.746557 0.147755 -5.052657 0.0000
C(15) 0.355881 0.147511 2.412569 0.0158
C(16) -0.245848 0.147446 -1.667374 0.0954
C(17) 0.786504 0.147442 5.334332 0.0000
C(18) -7.180923 0.208295 -34.47472 0.0000
C(19) 4.622960 0.194722 23.74129 0.0000
C(20) 1.699247 0.150186 11.31428 0.0000
C(21) -1.442268 0.206078 -6.998644 0.0000
C(22) -3.406965 0.149370 -22.80894 0.0000
C(23) 0.212981 0.184250 1.155940 0.2477
C(24) 0.077228 0.156566 0.493260 0.6218
C(25) 0.464861 0.151836 3.061588 0.0022
C(26) 1.247163 0.187581 6.648654 0.0000
C(27) 0.127123 0.147442 0.862193 0.3886
C(28) 1.834591 1.079064 1.700169 0.0891
C(29) -2.009942 0.708887 -2.835350 0.0046
C(30) -1.329271 0.292107 -4.550637 0.0000
C(31) 2.080652 0.296123 7.026318 0.0000
