2017 GH Sesi 7 LL Climate Change and Health

(1)

(2)

(3)

(4)

(5)

(6)

•

Archipelago (17,500 islands, land area 38% or 2 km2,

sea area 62% or 3.1 km2)

•

Coastal line 81,000 km

(7)

VULNERABILITY

•

Located in the ring of fire

•

Large forest area threatened by deforestation and forest

fire

•

Extreme weather

–

drought and flood

–

cyclone

•

Sea level rise

–

coral bleaching

–

sinking islands

•

Fragile ecosystem

–

land slide

–

peat (gambut)

(8)

NCCC (National Council on Climate Change)

•

Mainstreaming policy on climate change in sector and district.

•

Low-Emission Sustainable Development (Energy, Industry,

Forestry, and Agriculture)

•

Information, assessment and mechanism on arrangement and

carbon market.

•

Programming communication, information, and education

regarding to climate change in Indonesia

•

Monitoring and evaluating on implementation of the policy

•

Utilize Bali Action Plan in various International negotiations

(9)

162 Million Ha (1950)

119 Million Ha (1985)

98 Million Ha

(2000) 90 Million Ha (2010) 100 Million Ha

(1997) 1982 WPC III Bali 1992 WPC IV Caracas 2003 WPC V Durban 2010 WPC VI XXX Forest Cover

(10)

(11)

(12)

WATER RESOURCE CONSERVATION

Dark Red-Highly critical Red- Critical Yellow-Adequate Light Green-Very adequate

(13)

FOOD

(14)

LOSS OF BIODIVERSITY

Climate change has already

affected biodiversity, and is most

likely to continue to affect

biodiversity on a greater scale.

BIODIVERSITY HOT SPOT

There is a danger that certain

measures to mitigate climate

change such as increasing forest

plantations and biofuel production

may contribute to more

(15)

(16)

(17)

Corvalan et al., 2003

(18)

Direct Effects of Climate Change

on Vector-borne Disease

•

Climate change has the potential to

–

Increase range or abundance of animal

reservoirs and/or arthropod vectors

•

(e.g., Malaria, Schistosomiasis, Lyme)

–

Enhance transmission

•

(e.g., West Nile virus and other arboviruses)

–

Increase importation of vectors or pathogens

•

(e.g., Dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile virus)

–

Increase animal disease risk and potential

human risk

•

(e.g., Trypanosomiasis)

(19)

•

Direct effects of temperature on mortality

rates

*

•

Temperature effects on development: at low

temperatures, lifecycle lengthens and

mortality outstrips fecundity

*

Tsetse mortality,

Rogers and Randolph, 2003

*

Non-linear

(quadratic)

relationships

with temperature

(20)

Summary of Climate Change

Effects

•

Climate change has the potential to

–

Increase range or abundance of animal reservoirs

and/or arthropod vectors

•

Lyme, Malaria, Schistosomiasis

–

Prolong transmission cycle

•

Malaria, West Nile virus, and other arboviruses

–

Increase importation of vectors or animal

reservoirs

•

Dengue, Chikungunya, West Nile virus

–

Increase animal disease risk and potential human

risk

(21)

(22)

•

40% world population at risk

•

500 million severely ill

•

Climate sensitive disease

1

– No transmission where mosquitoes cannot survive

– Anopheles: optimal adult development 28-32ºC

– P falciparum transmission: 16-33ºC

•

Highland malaria

2

– Areas on the edges of endemic regions

•

Global warming



El Niño

3

– Outbreaks

Estimated incidence of clinical malaria episodes (WHO)

1 _{Khasnis and Nettleman 2005;}2 _{Patz and Olson 2006;}3 _{Haines and Patz,}

2004

McDonald et al., 1957

(23)

WHO, 2008b

(24)

Human Pathogen Environment Vector Anopheles mosquitoes Plasmodium Temperature Water availability Humidity Particularly vulnerable:

children, pregnant women

(25)

(26)

(27)

Climate change and malaria

scenario

(28)

(29)

Aedes mosquito breeding (Argentina)1_:

• Highest abundance mean temp. 20ºC, ↑ accumulated rainfall (150 mm)

• Decline egg laying monthly mean temperature <16,5ºC

• No eggs temp. <14,8ºC

Other studies:

• Virus replication increases ↑ temperature2

• Transmission of pathogen ≠ >12ºC3

• Biological models: small ↑ temperature in temperate regions  increases

potential epidemics4

1_{Vezzani et al., 2004;}2_{Watts et al., 1987;}3_{Patz et al., 2006;}4_{Patz et al., 1998}

(30)

WHO, 2008b

(31)

Hii et al., 2012

(32)

Forecast of Dengue Incidence

Using Temperature and Rainfall

(33)

(34)

Climate change and cardiovascular

diseases

•

Weather variables and acute myocardial

infarction admissions

0 5 1 0 1 5 2 0 Jan 2003 Jan 2004 Jan 2005 Jan 2006 Jan 2007 Jan 2008 Jan 2009 Jan 2010 Jan 2011 Jan 2012 Time

(35)

• Global warming intensify El Niño

• Several studies found relationships between dengue epidemics and ENSO (El Niño Southern Oscillation)

• Drought conditions: increase water storage around houses  elevated Aedes aegypti populations

• Enhanced breeding opportunities when rainfall accumulates following drought (Kuno et al., 1995)

ENSO= global scale pattern of climate

variation accounting for up to 40% of temperature and rainfall variation in Pacific

Hales et al., 1999;

Tipayamongkholgul et al, 2009

(36)

Greenhouse gas concentrations

Climate change

impact

responses

(37)

•

Surveillance

•

Precautionary approach

•

Mainstreaming response

•

Enhancing health system capacity

•

Anticipating new and emergent

pathogens changing VBD burden

(38)

(39)

Adaptations Include

•

Precautionary approach to risk assessment

•

Increased surveillance and monitoring

(baseline + changing incidence)

•

Improved tools for integrative risk

assessment

•

“Mainstreaming” through increased health

system capacity

(40)

Association between weather and

climate on VBDs

(41)

(42)

(43)