Morning Brief
Daily | Oct 27, 2017
IHSG (Jakarta Composite Index)
Oct 26 5,995.85
Chg -29.59pts (-0.49%)
Volume (bn shares) 88.78
Value (IDR tn) 7.90
Adv 158 Dec 175 Unc 237 Untr 118
Foreign Transaction
(IDR bn)Buy 2,227
Sell 2,508
Net Buy (Sell) (281)
Top Buy NB Val. Top Sell NS Val.
BMRI 174.42 TLKM 499.98
BBRI 98.95 ASII 51.78
BBNI 57.98 KLBF 22.75
HMSP 45.82 BBCA 21.50
SMGR 29.16 BJBR 16.82
LQ-45 Index
Top Gainers & LosersGainers % Losers % BUMI 5.1% UNTR -4.7% MNCN 3.6% INTP -4.7% PTBA 2.8% ADRO -4.0% GGRM 2.7% KLBF -3.6% PTPP 2.4% BJBR -3.6%
Government Bond Yield & FX
Last Chg. Tenor: 10 year 6.8540% 0.03% USD/IDR 13,587.00 0.07% KRW/IDR 12.06 0.21%Global Indexes
Index Last Chg. % Dow Jones 23,400.86 71.40 0.31% S&P 500 2,560.40 3.25 0.13% Nasdaq 6,556.77 (7.12) -0.11% FTSE 100 7,486.50 39.29 0.53% CAC 40 5,455.40 80.51 1.50% DAX 13,133.28 179.87 1.39% Nikkei 21,739.78 32.16 0.15% Hang Seng 28,202.38 (100.51) -0.36% Shanghai 3,407.57 10.67 0.31% KOSPI 2,480.63 (11.87) -0.48% EIDO 26.55 (0.11) -0.41%Commodities
Commodity Last Chg. %Gold (USD /troy oz.) 1,267.0 (10.5) -0.83%
Crude Oil (USD /bbl) 52.64 0.46 0.88%
Coal Newcas(USD/ton) 96.40 0.40 0.42%
Gas (USD /mmbtu) 2.89 0.40 -0.99%
Nickel LME (USD /MT) 11,750 (115.0) -0.97%
CPO (MYR/Ton) 2,813 8.0 0.29%
Indonesian Market Recap
IHSG ditutup melemah kemarin. Investor mulai mencerna pelemahan rupiah
yang dipicu oleh sentimen global dari pertemuan Bank Sentral Eropa.
Top Losers : Mining (-1.93%), Trade (-1.56%), Misc Industries (-1.49%)
Today’s Outlook: Kebijakan ECB
Untuk hari ini kami mengestimasi IHSG untuk bergerak menguat dengan support
range 5974-5978 dan resistance range 6026-6033. Sentimen positif global
datang dari hasil pertemuan Bank Sentral Eropa (ECB). ECB memutuskan untuk
memperpanjang masa stimulus moneter yakni pembelian obligasi meskipun
mengurangi nominal pembelian. Hal ini setidaknya mengurangi kekuatiran pasar
keuangan global. Kondisi ini diperkirakan membuat pelemahan Rupiah terhenti.
Di sisi lain, rilis kinerja dari BBCA dan TLKM diperkirakan akan memberikan
dampak positif bagi IHSG.
JCI Movement
JCI - one month Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
JCI - intraday
Stocks Recommendation (details on the next page)
Trading Buy: TLKM, BBCA, AKRA
Global Market
United States
Bursa Amerika ditutup naik tadi malam. Investor mencerna rilis kinerja Twitter
dan Ford yang melampaui estimasi.
Europe
Bursa Eropa menguat kemarin setelah Bank Sentral Eropa mengumumkan
perpanjangan stimulus meskipun mengurangi jumlah stimulus.
Asia
Bursa Asia bergerak variatif kemarin. Investor masih menunggu pertemuan Bank
Sentral Eropa.
Company News
PRDA : Laba Naik 238%
BNLI
: Meraih Laba Bersih Rp708 Miliar
TLKM : Pendapatan dan Laba Naik 2 Digit
RALS
: Menyiapkan 3 Gerai Baru
Domestic & Global News
Ekonomi Digital Mendapatkan Bantuan Pajak
ECB Perpanjang Program Pembelian Obligasi
Indonesia Economic Data
Monthly Indicator Last Prev. BI 7 Day Rev Repo Rate 4.25% 4.25%FX Reserve (USD bn) 129.40 128.79
Trd Balance (USD bn) 1.76 1.72
Exports Yoy 15.60% 19.24%
Imports Yoy 13.13% 8.89%
Inflation Yoy 3.72% 3.82%
Quarterly Indicator Last Prev.
Real GDP 5.01% 4.94%
Current Acc (USD bn) (4.96) (2.10)
Govt Spending Yoy -1.93% -4.05%
FDI (USD bn) 5.79 (7.71)
Business Confidence 111.63 106.70
Stocks Recommendation
TLKM
Last = 4160
Analysis
Laba bersih TLKM pada 3Q17 tumbuh 21% y-y
dari Rp4,8 triliun pada 3Q16 menjadi Rp5,8
triliun.
Range
4120 – 4310
Action
Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 4120
BBCA
Last = 20775
Analysis
BBCA mencetak laba bersih sebesar Rp6,3
triliun pada 3Q17 atau tumbuh sebesar 13%
y-y, lebih cepat dibandingkan pertumbuhan 9%
pada 2Q17.
Range
20400 – 21375
Action
Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 20400
AKRA
Last = 7925
Analysis
Harga minyak dunia menyentuh posisi
USD52,64 per barrel yang merupakan posisi
tertinggi dalam 6 bulan dipicu ekspektasi
peningkatan permintaan dari ASEAN.
Range
7675 - 8200
Action
Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 7675
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Relative Rotation Graph - Last 10 Days
98 99 100 101 102 103 96 97 98 99 100 101 102 103 Agriculture Mining Infrastructure Basic Ind. Consumer Finance Misc Ind. Trade Property
Lagging
Improving
Leading
Weakening
Relative Valuation
Source: Bloomberg Last Price End of Last Year Price YTD Change (%) 1 Year Change (%) Market Cap (IDR tn) Price / BVPS Price / EPS (TTM) EV/ EBITDA (TTM) Return on Equity (%) EVA Spread (%) Dividend Yield TTM (%) Sales Growth Yoy (%) EPS Growth Yoy (%) Adjusted Beta JCI Index 13.2 10.7 6,656.7 Finance 1,906.6 BBCA 20,775 15,500 34.0 33.8 512.2 4.2 23.8 N/A 18.9 6.2 1.0 8.6 14.4 0.9 BBRI 15,625 11,675 33.8 28.1 385.5 2.5 13.9 N/A 19.4 12.6 2.7 9.7 4.0 1.3 BMRI 7,025 5,788 21.4 24.1 327.8 2.0 19.4 N/A 10.8 2.6 1.9 6.5 (32.1) 1.3 BBNI 7,600 5,525 37.6 37.6 141.7 1.5 10.3 N/A 15.3 0.8 2.8 15.2 25.3 1.2 BDMN 5,225 3,710 40.8 33.3 50.1 1.4 16.8 N/A 8.2 1.1 1.9 (7.9) 11.5 1.4 BBTN 2,970 1,740 70.7 53.1 31.5 1.5 10.5 N/A 15.5 (1.9) 1.7 14.6 41.1 0.8 BJBR 2,430 3,390 (28.3) 50.5 23.6 2.4 19.9 N/A 12.5 (0.6) 3.7 5.6 (16.2) 0.7 BJTM 680 570 19.3 27.1 10.2 1.4 8.4 N/A 17.8 3.8 6.4 2.5 16.2 1.3 Consumer 1,427.0 HMSP 3,990 3,830 4.2 0.3 464.1 15.0 35.7 25.8 42.2 27 2.7 7.2 18.2 1.1 UNVR 49,525 38,800 27.6 11.5 377.9 77.0 56.3 38.8 137.1 128.2 1.7 9.8 9.4 1.2 GGRM 64,675 63,900 1.2 (2.6) 124.4 3.3 17.9 10.6 18.9 6.9 4.0 8.4 3.7 1.2 ICBP 8,900 8,575 3.8 (7.0) 103.8 5.8 31.5 17.7 21.9 17.5 1.7 8.6 20.0 1.5 KLBF 1,600 1,515 5.6 (8.3) 75.0 6.2 31.6 20.8 20.8 6.4 1.4 8.3 14.7 1.1 INDF 8,475 7,925 6.9 (1.7) 74.4 2.5 18.8 N/A 14.5 (3.0) 2.8 4.2 47.8 1.2 ROTI 1,330 1,600 (16.9) (19.9) 8.2 4.9 33.5 19.6 15.3 0.7 1.0 16.0 3.5 0.9 Infrastructure 785.53 TLKM 4,160 3,962 5.0 (1.4) 419.3 4.5 18.3 6.9 25.9 12.3 4.7 13.5 24.4 1.1 PGAS 1,675 2,700 (38.0) (34.3) 40.6 1.0 14.2 8.0 6.6 (5.4) 4.5 (4.4) (23.5) 1.3 JSMR 6,425 4,320 48.7 39.7 46.6 3.2 22.9 14.2 15.5 (3.1) 1.2 69.2 28.7 1.0 EXCL 3,330 2,310 44.2 42.3 35.6 1.7 122.9 6.5 1.4 (11.2) N/A (6.7) N/A 1.0 TBIG 6,525 4,980 31.0 8.8 29.6 21.8 31.4 15.1 55.3 (0.8) 2.3 8.5 (6.3) 0.7 Trade 756.9 UNTR 33,300 21,250 56.7 54.5 124.2 2.9 18.9 9.2 16.3 1.9 2.0 (7.7) 29.8 1.2 LPPF 9,025 15,125 (40.3) (49.4) 26.3 14.8 12.0 7.8 157.4 89.4 5.4 9.9 13.3 1.4 SCMA 2,180 2,800 (22.1) (16.2) 31.9 8.0 21.2 14.8 39.7 22.5 1.7 6.8 (1.5) 0.9 AKRA 7,925 6,000 32.1 14.9 31.8 4.4 31.1 22.8 14.5 (2.1) 1.9 (23.0) (3.0) 0.9 MNCN 1,585 1,755 (9.7) (24.5) 22.6 2.4 19.0 9.8 12.9 (0.1) 2.6 4.4 17.4 1.2 ACES 1,365 835 63.5 56.0 23.4 7.5 29.1 22.9 28.1 10.4 1.2 4.1 20.8 0.9 BMTR 640 615 4.1 (22.9) 9.1 1.0 N/A 6.3 (0.9) (4.0) 0.8 (1.1) 194.0 1.2 Property 425.5 BSDE 1,750 1,755 (0.3) (19.4) 33.7 1.5 11.5 11.4 13.8 (4.1) 0.3 5.0 (17.0) 1.3 LPKR 700 720 (2.8) (20.0) 16.2 0.8 18.3 15.3 4.7 (7.8) 0.3 18.6 64.8 1.1 PWON 640 565 13.3 (14.7) 30.8 3.1 17.3 11.8 19.6 3.6 0.7 4.7 32.4 1.1 WSKT 2,250 2,550 (11.8) (13.1) 30.5 2.4 6.9 12.0 28.9 (2.7) 1.7 68.1 63.5 1.0 SMRA 1,025 1,325 (22.6) (40.4) 14.8 2.4 44.0 13.1 5.5 (2.1) 0.5 (4.0) (63.6) 1.2 CTRA 1,220 1,335 (8.6) (23.3) 22.6 1.8 17.4 14.0 9.0 (2.4) 0.4 (10.3) (33.6) 1.0 PTPP 2,940 3,810 (22.8) (23.4) 18.2 1.8 16.5 8.6 16.9 (2.5) 1.7 15.8 13.5 0.9 WIKA 2,050 2,360 (13.1) (16.5) 18.4 1.6 13.1 N/A 14.8 (0.9) 1.7 15.0 68.3 0.8 ADHI 2,230 2,080 7.2 3.7 7.9 1.5 20.4 11.5 7.4 (3.9) 1.2 17.8 (56.6) 0.8 ASRI 394 352 11.9 (11.3) 7.7 1.0 11.7 9.0 8.9 (2.5) 0.4 (2.4) (14.7) 1.0 APLN 276 210 31.4 (4.8) 5.7 0.7 5.2 5.7 13.3 1.5 0.7 0.6 (21.3) 0.8 Misc Ind. 400.7 ASII 8,000 8,275 (3.3) (3.0) 323.9 2.8 18.6 12.4 15.8 (4.4) 2.1 (1.7) 4.8 1.3 SRIL 372 230 61.7 57.6 6.9 1.4 8.2 6.9 18.6 2.4 0.8 9.3 6.7 0.7 Basic Ind. 502.4 INTP 20,825 15,400 35.2 27.4 76.7 3.2 32.7 22.6 9.7 (5.5) 4.5 (13.7) (11.2) 1.4 SMGR 11,025 9,175 20.2 9.4 65.4 2.3 17.9 13.8 13.4 (2.7) 2.8 (3.0) 0.0 1.1 CPIN 3,400 3,090 10.0 (7.6) 55.8 3.8 27.4 12.0 14.1 1.9 1.6 27.9 29.1 1.1 WTON 660 825 (20.0) (24.1) 5.8 2.2 19.2 10.9 12.7 1.3 1.5 31.3 56.7 0.7 Mining 340.6 ADRO 1,825 1,695 7.7 17.7 58.4 1.3 9.8 4.7 13.9 5.5 2.3 (6.0) 119.3 1.3 INCO 2,890 2,820 2.5 7.8 28.7 1.2 N/A 8.8 0.0 (11.0) N/A (26.0) N/A 1.4 PTBA 11,025 12,500 (11.8) (11.8) 25.4 1.8 6.3 4.2 32.2 13.3 2.6 2.4 1.2 1.3 ANTM 655 895 (26.8) (25.1) 15.7 0.9 N/A 23.6 (2.4) (9.2) N/A (13.5) N/A 1.0 ITMG 21,500 16,875 27.4 46.3 24.3 1.9 8.7 3.5 22.7 12.5 7.3 (14.0) 100.0 0.9Agriculture 111.6
AALI 14,600 16,775 (13.0) (6.6) 28.1 1.6 12.4 N/A 13.5 1.5 3.5 8.1 203.2 0.7 SSMS 1,485 1,400 6.1 (1.0) 14.1 3.9 18.8 12.0 22.5 1.4 1.3 14.8 9.2 0.8 LSIP 1,500 1,740 (13.8) (2.3) 10.2 1.3 10.9 5.6 12.5 1.3 2.3 (8.2) (4.4) 0.8