Morning Brief
Along with the rupiah depreciation, JCI closed slightly lower on Friday. Investors
also awaited the release of trade balance on Monday, 12/17/18. Top Losers:
Mining (-0.65%), Basic Industry (-0.62%), Infrastructure (-0.55%)
The global markets closed lower on Friday, relating to investors' jitters on the
possible slowdown in the global economy. The jitter is heightened by the lower
-than-expected Europe and China's economy. The U.S. markets were in the
negative territory along with the massive last week's capital outflow.
Today’s Outlook: Trade Balance
Today we estimate JCI to move at modest pace with the support range of 6118
-6125 and the resistance range of 6185-6196. Today, investors will focus on the
release of November's trade balance. In October, Indonesia posted the deficit of USD1.8 billion and is likely to post the lower deficit of USD790 million. The growth in imports is estimated to be higher than that of exports.
From the global outlook, the pressure comes from the global markets' slow response to China's worse economic data. China posted a disappointing output industrial figure and retail sales. The backdrop fuels investors' jitter relating to the negative impacts of the global trade war.
Stocks Recommendation
LSIP Last = 1265
Analysis Global CPO prices rally, backed by the
expectancy of the decline in Indonesia's CPO inventories. On the other side, the demand for Indonesia's CPO is high.
Range 1245 – 1320
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 1245
ADRO Last = 1285
Analysis The steep decline in ADRO's stock prices in
November 2018 has discontinued. Now, its valuation of P/B of 0.8x makes its stocks attractive.
Range 1250 – 1350
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 1250
UNTR Last = 29425
Analysis UNTR still has a rosy performance, backed by
the business diversification. On the other hand, UNTR still has an attractive valuation
with the P/E of 10.1x (vs. the last-2 year
average of 17.2x).
Range 29250 – 30275
Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 29250
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Company News
Domestic & Global News
Indonesia's Trade Deficit Is Estimated to Narrow
Indonesia is estimated to post the lower trade deficit in November than that in the prior month. The rupiah appreciation helps to narrow Indonesia's trade deficit. Reuters estimated that Indonesia's trade deficit in November was at USD830 million. The amount was a half of October's trade deficit of USD1.77 billion. Indeed, Reuters also estimated that imports
growth lagged to 10.50% y-y in November 2018. In October 2018, Indonesia's imports grew by 23.99% y-y, but its exports
were still estimated to be sluggish, with the growth of 3.95% y-y in November. The growth in exports was more sluggish
than that in October of 4.21%. (Kontan)
China Reported Lower Of Economic Data Release
China on Friday reported industrial output and retail sales growth for the month of November that missed expectations,
according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, as the world's second-largest economy started to show signs of
slowing amid a bitter trade dispute with the U.S. Industrial output in November grew 5.4 percent from a year ago, the slowest pace in almost three years as it matched the rate of growth seen in January to February 2016, according to Reuters records. Retail sales rose 8.1 percent in November, the weakest pace since 2003, according to Reuters' records, lower than the 8.8 percent the analysts expected. November retail sales growth was down from 8.6 percent in October. Fixed asset investment rose 5.9 percent from January to November, marginally higher than the 5.8 percent the economists had forecast. FAI rose 5.7 percent from January to October. (CNBC)
LPPF : Launches Its Third Stores in 2018
LPPF just launched its third stores in Gresik, East Java. In the mid of 2018, it launched its first store in Gresik. During the first week, LPPF offers the promotion program through the discount coupon of IDR50,000 and the discount voucher of IDR500,000. The third store, which is 5,900 sqm, is located in Gress Mall. (Bisnis Indonesia)
INTP : Sales Volume Hikes 5%
INTP posted the sales volume of 1.6 million tons (+5% y-y)
in November 2018. However, the sales volume declined by 15% from 1.9 million tons in October 2018. Until the
end of 2019, INTP is sanguine about the growth of 6%-7%
y-y in sales volume amid the heavy rainfall within a few
weeks late, depleting sales volume. (Bisnis Indonesia)
WSKT : Receives Payment of IDR1.9 Trillion
WSKT has received the payment of IDR1.9 trillion from the government. It was the first payment from the
construction of Terbanggi Besar-Pematang Panggang-Kayu
Agung toll routes. The total amount of the project is IDR2.5 trillion. WSKT stated that the remaining payment of IDR600 billion will be paid on December 20th, 2018. (Kontan)
TPIA : Will Issue Bonds of IDR500 Billion
TPIA will issue II Phase of I Shelf-Registration of 2018 with
the principal amount of IDR500 billion. The bonds have a
3-year tenor with the coupon of 10%. 80% of the
proceeds will be allocated for refinancing facility agreement amounting to USD220 million; the remaining amount will be used to purchase machines for MTBE and
Global Economic Calendar
Source: Bloomberg
Date Country JakartaHour Event Period Actual Consensus Previous
Monday EU 17:00 CPI YoY Nov F 2.00% 2.20%
17 - Dec
Tuesday GER 16:00 IFO Business Climate Dec 101.8 102
18 - Dec USA 20:30 Housing Starts Nov 1233k 1228k
Wednesday UK 16:30 CPI MoM Nov 0.20% 0.10%
19 - Dec UK 16:30 CPI YoY Nov 2.30% 2.40%
UK 16:30 CPI Core YoY Nov 1.90% 1.90%
UK 16:30 PPI Output NSA MoM Nov 0.10% 0.30%
USA 19:00 MBA Mortgage Applications 14-Dec -- 1.60%
USA 20:30 Current Account Balance 3Q -- -$101.5b
USA 22:00 Existing Home Sales Nov 5.20m 5.22m
Thursday USA 02:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Upper Bound) 13-Dec 0.25% 0.25%
20 - Dec USA 02:00 FOMC Rate Decision (Lower Bound) 13-Dec -0.40% -0.40%
JPN 11:30 All Industry Activity Index MoM 8-Dec -- 231k
USA 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims
Friday JPN 06:30 Natl CPI YoY Nov 0.80% 1.40%
21 - Dec UK 16:30 GDP QoQ 3Q F 0.60% 0.60%
UK 16:30 GDP YoY 3Q F 1.50% 1.50%
USA 20:30 GDP Annualized QoQ 3Q T 3.50% 3.50%
USA 20:30 Durable Goods Orders Nov P 2.00% -4.30%
EU 22:00 Consumer Confidence Dec A -4.4 -3.9
USA 22:00 Personal Income Nov 0.30% 0.50%
USA 22:00 Personal Spending Nov 0.30% 0.60%
USA 22:00 U. of Mich. Sentiment Dec F 97.5 97.5
Source: Bloomberg
Domestic Economic Calendar
Date Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev.
Monday 11:00 Exports YoY Nov 4.68% 3.59%
17 - Dec 11:00 Imports YoY Nov 11.00% 23.66%
11:00 Trade Balance Nov -790.00 -$1820m
Thursday Tentative Bank Indonesia 7D Reverse Repo 20-Dec 6.00% 6.00%
Corporate Calendar
Date Event Company
Monday Rights Listing Date META
17 - Dec
Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting TIRT
18 - Dec Cum Dividend Date JASS (IDR67 per share)
JTPE (IDR15 per share)
Wednesday Annual Shareholder Meeting BNGA
19 - Dec Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting STTP
Annual & Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting ZBRA
Thursday Rights Delisting Date IKAI
20 - Dec Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BUKK, LINK, MNCN, VRNA
Friday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting HOME, MTWI
21 - Dec
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