MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

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Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah.

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

• Bursa global menguat ke level tertinggi sejak Desember pada hari Kamis dan USD terapresiasi untuk ketiga kalinya karena investor memburu aset beresiko jelang pertemuan puncak dewan kebijakan dan produsen minyak.

• Wall Street tidak banyak berubah setelah S&P 500 ditutup di level tertinggi sejak awal Desember.

• Harga minyak berfluktuasi dan berakhir lebih rendah setelah laporan beragam dari Badan Energi Internasional dan skeptisisme bahwa pertemuan yang akan datang dari produsen utama akan berbuat banyak untuk memperketat keseimbangan pasokan dan permintaan.

• Sementara itu langkah Singapura untuk melawan deflasi terjadi menjelang persiapan pertemuan Bank Dunia dan Dana Moneter Internasional pekan ini di Washington, yang berjanji akan menyiapkan dana guna mengatasi pelambatan ekonomi.

• Bank sentral Singapura pada hari Kamis mengejutkan pasar dengan mengatakan akan mengatur laju apresiasi dolar Singapura dengan kebijakan NEER (nominal effective exchange rate) nol persen, dimulai pada hari Kamis, dan beralih ke sikap kebijakan yang netral setelah data sebelumnya menunjukkan pertumbuhan ekonomi terhenti pada kuartal pertama. Meskipun data perdagangan dari China dirilis optimis pada Rabu sebelumnya, namun keputusan kebijakan Singapura ini memberikan sinyal kekhawatiran dalam menghadapi ekonomi global.

• Sementara itu di awal pekan ini, IMF memangkas proyeksi pertumbuhan global untuk keempat kalinya dalam satu tahun terakhir, mengutip sekelompok faktor termasuk kelemahan kronis di negara maju.

Jumat 15 April 2015

WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV

06.00 KR Unemployment Rate Mar N/A % 4.1

N/A KR Export Growth Revised Mar N/A % -8.2

09.00 CN Industrial Output YY Mar 5.9 % 5.4

09.00 CN Retail Sales YY Mar 10.4 % 10.2

09.00 CN GDP YY Q1 6.7 % 6.8

11.30 JP Industrial Output Rev Feb N/A % -6.2

15.30 GB Construction O/P Vol MM Feb 0.0 % -0.2

16.00 EZ Eurostat Trade NSA Eur Feb N/A B 6.2

19.30 CA Manufacturing Sales MM Feb -1.5 % 2.3

19.30 US NY Fed Manufacturing Apr 2.21 IND 0.62

20.15 US Industrial Output MM Mar -0.1 % -0.5

20.15 US Capacity Utilization MM Mar 75.4 % 75.4

21.00 US UoM Sentiment Prelim Apr 92.0 IND 91.0

03.00 US Net L-T Flows Exswaps Feb N/A B -12.0

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Trend pada laporan ini dilihat dari kondisi 15’-chart dengan mempertimbangkan harga bergerak dari sesi pasar sebelumnya.

Level-level pada indikator technical, data fundamental maupun harga diperoleh dari Reuters. Komentar dan Analisis dibuat berdasarkan data maupun indikator tersebut. Perlu juga merujuk pada laporan Daily Bulletin (Outlook Harian) kami untuk memperkuat pandangan terhadap laporan ini.

EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Menjauhi puncak trend channel harian

• Dekati level support 1.1170- 1.1140

• RSI flat

(Research – @her1en)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Apr 14 1.1280 1.1294 1.1234 60 1.1255 25 1.1280

Apr 13 1.1385 1.1391 1.1273 118 1.1280 110 1.1390

Apr 12 1.1410 1.1464 1.1348 116 1.1390 15 1.1405

Apr 11 1.1405 1.1446 1.1374 72 1.1405 5 1.1400

Apr 08 1.1370 1.1419 1.1350 69 1.1400 30 1.1370

WEEKLY APRIL MARCH 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1.1464 1.1234 1.1464 1.1234 1.1411 1.0823 1.1464 1.0711

(12/Apr) (14/Apr) (12/Apr) (14/Apr) (31/Mar) (10/Mar) (12/Apr) (05/Jan)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

1.1495 High 15/Oct/2015 (Peak)

1.1464 High 12/Apr/2016

1.1391 High Apr 13

1.1294 High Apr 14

SUPPORT

1.1177 Reaction low on hourly chart

1.1142 Low Mar 24

1.1055 Reaction low on daily chart

1.0980 Pivot Line

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 1.1285

STOP LOSS 1.1345

TARGET 1.1215

1.1185

Daily EUR= 02/12/2015 - 22/04/2016 (GMT)

1.1464

1.0809 ^1.0820

1.1166 1.1375

1.1142

Cndl; EUR=; Bid

15/04/2016; 1,1268; 1,1269; 1,1258; 1,1262 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 15/04/2016; 1,1293 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 15/04/2016; 1,1219

Price USD

Auto 1,04 1,05 1,06 1,07 1,08 1,09 1,1 1,11 1,12 1,13 1,14

RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 15/04/2016; 36,176

Value USD

Auto 50

Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 15/04/2016; 0,0069 Value

USD Auto

07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18

Desember 2015 Januari 2016 Februari 2016 Maret 2016 April 2016

@her1en

(3)

USD/JPY

Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0-0.1% (JP)

• Reli berlanjut mendekati level psikologi 110

• RSI keluar dari zona oversold

• Waspadai daily trend masih bearish !

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

Apr 14 109.45 109.54 108.91 63 109.35 5 109.30

Apr 13 108.65 109.39 108.51 88 109.30 75 108.55

Apr 12 107.90 108.78 107.88 90 108.55 55 108.00

Apr 11 108.25 108.43 107.64 79 108.00 25 108.25

Apr 08 108.50 109.09 108.09 100 108.25 10 108.35

109.54 107.64 112.58 107.64 114.55 110.68 121.68 107.64

(14/Apr) (11/Apr) (01/Apr) (11/Apr) (02/Mar) (17/Mar) (29/Jan) (11/Apr)

RESISTANCE

112.58 High 01/Apr/2016

111.79 High 04/Apr/2016

110.62 High 06/Apr/2016

109.85 High 07/Apr/2016

SUPPORT

108.48 Low 13/Apr/2016

107.50 Pivot line

106.22 Low 21/Oct/2014 (Reaction low)

105.18 Low 15/Oct/2014 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 109.20

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 108.25

TARGET 109.90

110.25

(4)

GBP/USD

Interest Rate: 0.1% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Daily trend cenderung

bearish

• Koreksi mendekati area support di 1.4050

Apr 14 1.4190 1.4211 1.4090 121 1.4150 55 1.4205

Apr 13 1.4265 1.4279 1.4194 85 1.4205 65 1.4270

Apr 12 1.4235 1.4347 1.4197 150 1.4270 35 1.4235

Apr 11 1.4125 1.4284 1.4107 177 1.4235 110 1.4125

Apr 08 1.4050 1.4140 1.4041 99 1.4125 70 1.4055

1.4347 1.4090 1.4372 1.4007 1.4514 1.3905 1.4813 1.3837

(12/Apr) (14/Apr) (01/Apr) (06/Apr) (18/Mar) (01/Mar) (04/Jan) (29/Feb)

RESISTANCE

1.4514 High 18/Mar/2016 (Peak)

1.4458 High 30/Mar/2016 (Peak)

1.4347 High 12/Apr/2016

1.4279 High 13/Apr/2016

SUPPORT

1.4050 Trendline support

1.4002 Low 06/Apr/2016 (Bottom)

1.3902 Low 01/Mar/2016

1.3833 Low 29/Feb/2016 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.4190

STOP LOSS 1.4290

TARGET 1.4040

1.3990

(5)

USD/CHF

Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)

• Reli berupaya uji resistance di 0.9785

• Waspadai daily trend yang masih cenderung bearish

• Short-term support di 0.9490

• Key support di 0.9473 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

Apr 14 0.9670 0.9690 0.9638 52 0.9670 UNCH 0.9670

Apr 13 0.9555 0.9673 0.9548 125 0.9670 120 0.9550

Apr 12 0.9545 0.9594 0.9498 96 0.9550 10 0.9540

Apr 11 0.9535 0.9569 0.9502 67 0.9540 UNCH 0.9540

Apr 08 0.9565 0.9585 0.9523 62 0.9540 25 0.9565

0.9690 0.9498 0.9690 0.9498 1.0094 0.9572 1.0257 0.9498

RESISTANCE

1.0094 High 10/Mar/2016

1.0000 level of psychology

0.9915 High 16/Mar/2016

0.9795 High 17/Mar/2016

SUPPORT

0.9633 Low 14/Apr/2016

0.9540 Low 13/Apr/2016

0.9473 Low 15/Oct/2015 (Bottom)

0.9379 Low 26/Aug/2015

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.9645

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 0.9600

TARGET 0.9750

0.9820

(6)

AUD/USD

Interest Rate: 2.0% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Pola bullish masih terjadi

• RSI flat

• Target di level 0.78 (Research – @her1en)

Apr 14 0.7660 0.7736 0.7620 116 0.7690 40 0.7650

Apr 13 0.7685 0.7715 0.7635 80 0.7650 35 0.7685

Apr 12 0.7590 0.7689 0.7584 105 0.7685 90 0.7595

Apr 11 0.7565 0.7629 0.7529 100 0.7595 45 0.7550

Apr 08 0.7515 0.7579 0.7501 78 0.7550 45 0.7505

0.7736 0.7529 0.7736 0.7493 0.7721 0.7110 0.7736 0.6828

RESISTANCE

0.7934 Reaction high on daily chart

0.7848 Reaction high on daily chart (Jun 18/2015)

0.7771 High 24/Jun/2015 (Reaction high)

0.7736 High Apr 14

SUPPORT

0.7616 Low Apr 14

0.7580 Low Apr 12

0.7525 Low Apr 11

0.7475 Low 24/Mar/2016 (Reaction low)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.7665

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 0.7595

TARGET 0.7755

0.7785

Daily AUD= 04/12/2015 - 22/04/2016 (GMT)

0.6971

0.7488 0.7413

0.7400

0.7105

0.7736

0.6824

EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 15/04/2016; 0,7591 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 15/04/2016; 0,7503 Cndl; AUD=; Bid

15/04/2016; 0,7694; 0,7695; 0,7684; 0,7689

Price USD

Auto 0,68 0,69 0,7 0,71 0,72 0,73 0,74 0,75 0,76 0,77

RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

15/04/2016; 61,928 Value

USD Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 Auto

15/04/2016; 0,0146 Value

USD

07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18

@her1en

(7)

NZD/USD

Interest Rate: 2.25% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Jauhi puncak trend channel

• RSI turun

• Target ke level 0.67 – 0.66 (Research – @her1en)

Apr 14 0.6915 0.6921 0.6824 97 0.6845 70 0.6915

Apr 13 0.6920 0.6952 0.6899 53 0.6915 FLAT 0.6915

Apr 12 0.6855 0.6925 0.6853 72 0.6915 55 0.6860

Apr 11 0.6815 0.6878 0.6792 86 0.6860 50 0.6810

Apr 08 0.6780 0.6829 0.6773 56 0.6810 35 0.6775

0.6952 0.6792 0.6952 0.6760 0.6966 0.6572 0.6966 0.6348

(13/Apr) (11/Apr) (13/Apr) (05/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (31/Mar) (20/Jan)

RESISTANCE

0.7198 High 11/Jun/2015

0.7010 High 17/Jun/2015 (Reaction high)

0.6966 High 31/Mar/2016 (Peak)

0.6921 High Apr 14

SUPPORT

0.6821 Low Apr 14

0.6789 Low 11/Apr/2016

0.6705 Low 29/Mar/2016

0.6667 Low 28/Mar/2016 (Reaction high)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 0.6870

STOP LOSS 0.6930

TARGET 0.6800

0.6770

Daily NZD= 25/11/2015 - 22/04/2016 (GMT)

0.6910

0.6230

0.6886

0.6346

0.6550

0.6966

0.6667 0.6757

Cndl; NZD=; Bid

15/04/2016; 0,6841; 0,6848; 0,6838; 0,6844 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 15/04/2016; 0,6818 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 15/04/2016; 0,6768

Price USD

Auto 0,6 0,61 0,62 0,63 0,64 0,65 0,66 0,67 0,68 0,69

RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

15/04/2016; 51,609 Value

USD Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 Auto

15/04/2016; 0,0124 Value

USD

30 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18

@her1en

(8)

EUR/JPY

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0-0.1% (JP)

• Area support di 123 masih diuji

• RSI masih tertahan di zona oversold (27)

• Daily trend cenderung

bearish

Apr 14 123.40 123.43 122.73 70 123.10 15 123.25

Apr 13 123.70 123.86 123.01 85 123.25 35 123.60

Apr 12 123.15 123.99 123.08 91 123.60 45 123.15

Apr 11 123.50 123.72 122.83 89 123.15 25 123.40

Apr 08 123.30 124.22 123.01 121 123.40 20 123.20

123.99 122.73 128.16 122.57 128.22 122.12 132.25 122.12

(12/Apr) (14/Apr) (01/Apr) (07/Apr) (31/Mar) (01/Mar) (29/Jan) (01/Mar)

RESISTANCE

125.24 High 07/Apr/2016

123.99 High 12/Apr/2016 (Reaction high)

SUPPORT

122.54 Low 07/Apr/2016

122.06 Low 01/Mar/2016 (Bottom)

119.08 Low 03/Apr/2013 (Bottom)

118.86 Low 25/Feb/2013 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 123.35

STOP LOSS 124.20

TARGET 122.55

122.10

(9)

USD/CAD

Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA)

• Rebound berlanjut ditengah daily trend yang bearish

• Key support di 1.2700 – 1.2650

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.2983 1.2839

1.3014 1.2744 1.3217 1.2744 1.3552 1.2853 1.4689 1.2744

RESISTANCE

1.3217 High 05/Apr/2016 (reaction high)

1.3156 High 08/Apr/2016

1.3014 High 11/Apr/2016

1.2919 High 12/Apr/2016

SUPPORT

1.2744 Low 13/Apr/2016

1.2719 Low 15/Jul/2015

1.2652 Low 10/Jul/2015 (Reaction low)

1.2640 Low 07/Jul/2015

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.2825

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 1.2725

TARGET 1.2950 – 1.3050

(10)

GOLD (XAU/USD)

• Tekanan lanjut lagi

• RSI harian anjlok

• Dekati pivot line 1200 (Research – @her1en)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS AM FIX (16.30 WIB)

PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Apr 14 1241.00 1244.00 1224.43 19.57 1226.00 17.00 1243.00 1240.30 1233.85 Apr 13 1254.50 1256.80 1240.63 16.17 1243.00 12.00 1255.00 1245.75 1245.75 Apr 12 1257.50 1262.60 1251.91 10.69 1255.00 2.00 1257.00 1259.20 1254.60 Apr 11 1244.50 1258.70 1240.90 17.80 1257.00 16.00 1241.00 1247.25 1254.75

Apr 08 1239.00 1242.80 1230.24 12.56 1241.00 UNCH 1241.00 1235.00 1239.50

1262.60 1224.43 1262.60 1209.55 1282.51 1208.95 1282.51 1062.28

(12/Apr) (14/Apr) (12/Apr) (01/Apr) (11/Mar) (28/Mar) (11/Mar) (04/Jan)

RESISTANCE

1266.51 High 18/Mar/2016

1262.60 High Apr 12

1256.80 High Apr 13

1244.00 High Apr 14

SUPPORT

1222.30 Low 07/Apr/2016

1216.70 Low Apr 06

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 1229.00

STOP LOSS 1237.00

TARGET 1219.00

1214.50

Daily XAU= 17/12/2015 - 21/04/2016 (GMT)

1270.90 1282.51

1214.45 1208.15

1050

1162.60

1200

Cndl; XAU=; Bid

14/04/2016; 1.241,6600; 1.244,0000; 1.223,4000; 1.227,0100 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20

14/04/2016; 1.235,8321 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 14/04/2016; 1.235,3361

Price USD Ozs

Auto 1.050 1.080 1.110 1.140 1.170 1.200 1.230 1.260

RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

14/04/2016; 43,143 ^Value

USD Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14 Auto

14/04/2016; 10,9100 Value

USD

21 28 04 11 18 25 01 08 15 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Ozs

@her1en

(11)

SILVER (XAG/USD)

• Jauhi level puncak

• RSI harian – hourly merosot (Research – @her1en)

Apr 14 16.18 16.23 15.88 0.35 16.13 0.06 16.19

Apr 13 16.16 16.30 15.98 0.32 16.19 0.02 16.17

Apr 12 15.90 16.19 15.77 0.42 16.17 0.28 15.89

Apr 11 15.38 15.95 15.34 0.61 15.89 0.55 15.34

Apr 08 15.20 15.37 15.11 0.26 15.34 0.14 15.20

16.30 15.34 16.30 14.77 16.12 14.70 16.30 13.73

RESISTANCE

16.44 High 18/Jun/2015

16.36 High 28/Oct/2015 (Peak)

16.31 High Apr 13

16.24 High Apr 14

SUPPORT

15.88 Low Apr 14

15.77 Low Apr 12

15.34 Low 11/Apr/2016

15.02 Low 07/Apr/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 16.20

STOP LOSS 16.45

TARGET 15.90

15.70

Hourly XAG= 19:00 06/04/2016 - 6:00 15/04/2016 (GMT)

15.77

16.31

15.88

Cndl; XAG=; Bid

22:00 14/04/2016; 16,1480; 16,1480; 16,1480; 16,1480 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20

22:00 14/04/2016; 16,1318 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 22:00 14/04/2016; 16,1323

Price USD Ozs

Auto 15 15,2 15,4 15,6 15,8 16 16,2

RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

22:00 14/04/2016; 55,240 Value

USD Ozs Auto Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14

22:00 14/04/2016; 0,0930 Value

USD 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00 14:00 22:00 06:00Ozs

07 Apr 16 08 Apr 16 11 Apr 16 12 Apr 16 13 Apr 16 14 Apr 16

@her1en

(12)

CLK6/USD (OIL)

(Exp.: 20 Apr. 2016 - Reuters)

• Tekanan dalam harian- hourly

• Target level 40-39

• RSI flat

(Research – @her1en)

Apr 14 41.53 42.14 40.83 1.31 41.44 0.10 41.54

Apr 13 41.59 42.40 41.23 1.17 41.54 0.09 41.63

Apr 12 40.33 42.23 40.08 2.15 41.63 1.31 40.32

Apr 11 39.68 40.73 39.24 1.49 40.32 0.67 39.65

Apr 08 37.52 39.82 37.44 2.38 39.65 2.14 37.51

42.40 39.24 42.40 35.23 42.47 33.36 42.47 26.04

(13/Apr) (11/Apr) (13/Apr) (05/Apr) (18/Mar) (01/Mar) (18/Mar) (11/Feb)

RESISTANCE

44.08 High Dec 07, 2015

42.42 High Apr 13

SUPPORT

40.84 Low Apr 14

40.09 Low Apr 12

39.25 Low 11/Apr/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ---

SELL 41.60

STOP LOSS 42.60

TARGET 40.10

39.60

Daily CLK6 01/12/2015 - 21/04/2016 (NYC)

42.49

35.24

29.85 40

42.42 42.70

39.25

Cndl; CLK6; Trade Price 14/04/2016; 41,54; 42,16; 40,84; 41,45 WMA; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 55 14/04/2016; 38,23 EMA; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 20 14/04/2016; 39,24

Price USD Bbl

Auto 28 30 32 34 36 38 40 42

RSI; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

14/04/2016; 65,590 Value

USD Bbl Mom; CLK6; Trade Price(Last); 14

14/04/2016; 1,99 Value

USD

07 14 21 28 04 11 19 25 01 08 16 22 29 07 14 21 28 04 11 18 Bbl

@her1en