MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

(1)

Laporan dibuat untuk tujuan informatif & dapat dijadikan bahan perbandingan atas prediksi lain namun tidak harus menjadi satu-satunya referensi dalam pengambilan keputusan untuk masuk pasar. Dengan demikian, segala sesuatu yang menyangkut akibat dari transaksi yang dilakukan nasabah, sepenuhnya menjadi tanggung jawab nasabah.

RESEARCH DEPARTMENT – PT VALBURY ASIA FUTURES

Menara Karya 9th Floor, Jl. HR Rasuna Said Blok X-5 Kav. 1-2 Jakarta 12950 Indonesia, Phone : +6221-25533777

MARKET UPDATE & OUTLOOK

• AS & Global Markets: Ketiga indeks utama Wall Street ditutup di level rekor tertinggi untuk 2 hari berturut-turut pada hari Selasa, sementara saham Eropa juga menguat oleh ekspektasi bahwa pasar dunia akan diuntungkan oleh kebijakan presiden terpilih AS Donald Trump.

Kenaikan moderat memicu Dow ditutup di atas 19000 dan S&P 500 berakhir di atas 2200 untuk pertama kalinya, sementara Nasdaq dan small-cap Russell 2000 juga tembus level rekor penutupan tertingginya untuk dua hari berturut-turut.

Minyak masih bergerak fluktuatif jelang sidang OPEC di Wina, Austria, pada 30 November mendatang.

USD menguat terhadap yen setelah tembus intraday high di 111.35 yen, hanya sedikit di bawah level tertinggi hampir 6 tahun yang dicapai hari Senin di 111.36 yen, menyusul data AS menunjukkan peningkatan pada existing home sales bulan lalu. Sementara harga emas menurun seiring berkurangnya minat pada aset safe-haven.

• Weekahead: Pekan ini Menteri Keuangan Inggris Philip Hammond akan menawarkan rencana perusahaan dan pandangan pada ekonomi Inggris yang sedang mempersiapkan diri untuk pembicaraan Brexit dengan Autumn Statement kepada parlemen pada Rabu.

Tidak lagi mencari surplus anggaran oleh 2019/20, pemerintah Inggris akan mengumumkan penambahan belanja untuk jalan dan kereta api.

Di benua Eropa, data Ifo Business Jerman akan dicermati yang kemungkinan cukup stabil yang tidak berubah dari level tertinggi 2-1/2 tahun yang dicapai di bulan Oktober. Indeks PMI sektor manufaktur dan jasa juga akan dicermati yang diharapkan untuk menunjukkan kelanjutan dari pertumbuhan moderat di seluruh Eropa setelah terguncang pasca-Brexit. Kebanyakan negara besar akan menunggu sampai Desember untuk panel pengaturan suku bunga bank sentral mereka. Komite kebijakan moneter akan berlangsung di Hongaria, Afrika Selatan dan Turki pekan ini, meskipun tidak terlihat akan adanya perubahan suku bunga.

Rabu 23 November 2015

WIB CTY INDICATORS PER ACTUAL FORECAST PREV. REV

07:30 AU Construction Work Done* Q3 -1.7 % -3.7

15:30 DE Markit Manufacturing Flash PMI Nov 54.7 ind 55.0

19:30 US Build Permits R Number MM Oct N/A m 1.229

20:30 US Initial Jobless Claims w/e 250 k 235

20:30 US Durable Goods Oct 1.5 % -0.3

20:30 US Non defense Cap Ex-Air Oct 0.4 % -1.3

21:00 US Monthly Home Price MM Sep N/A % 0.7

21:45 US Markit Mfg PMI Flash Nov 53.4 ind 53.4

22:00 US U Michigan Sentiment Final Nov 91.6 ind 91.6

22:00 US New Home Sales-Units Oct 0.593 m 0.593

22:30 US EIA Weekly Crude Stocks w/e -0.250 m 5.274

22:30 US EIA Weekly Distilled Stocks w/e -0.750 m 0.310

All Day JP Labour Thanksgiving Day/Bank Holiday

(2)

Trend pada laporan ini dilihat dari kondisi 15’-chart dengan mempertimbangkan harga bergerak dari sesi pasar sebelumnya.

Level-level pada indikator technical, data fundamental maupun harga diperoleh dari Reuters. Komentar dan Analisis dibuat berdasarkan data maupun indikator tersebut. Perlu juga merujuk pada laporan Daily Bulletin (Outlook Harian) kami untuk memperkuat pandangan terhadap laporan ini.

EUR/USD

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Koreksi dalam pergerakan harian

• Rangkaian naik level high harian

• Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual

(Research – @her1en)

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS

Nov 22 1.0635 1.0658 1.0585 73 1.0625 FLAT 1.0625

Nov 21 1.0580 1.0649 1.0580 69 1.0625 30 1.0595

Nov 18 1.0625 1.0642 1.0570 72 1.0595 30 1.0625

Nov 17 1.0705 1.0745 1.0619 126 1.0625 65 1.0690

Nov 16 1.0725 1.0759 1.0667 92 1.0690 40 1.0730

WEEKLY NOVEMBER OCTOBER 2016

HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW HIGH LOW

1.0658 1.0580 1.1299 1.0570 1.1243 1.0851 1.1614 1.0570

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (25/Oct) (03/May) (18/Nov)

ANALYSIS & RECOMMENDATION

RESISTANCE

1.0954 High 10/Nov/2016

1.0849 High 14/Nov/2016

1.0745 High 17/Nov/2016

1.0682 Reaction high on 1-H chart

SUPPORT

1.0576 Low Nov 21

1.0538 Low 03/Dec/2015 (Bottom)

1.0529 Low 14/Apr/2015

1.0519 Low 13/Apr/2015 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.0600

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 1.0535

TARGET 1.0670

1.0700

Daily EUR= 17/08/2016 - 28/11/2016 (JAK)

1.1365

1.0567 1.1326

1.0816 1.1278

1.1234

1.1299

Cndl; EUR=; Bid

22/11/2016; 1,0625; 1,0658; 1,0581; 1,0625 EMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 1,0820 WMA; EUR=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 1,0944

Price USD

Auto 1,06 1,07 1,08 1,09 1,1 1,11 1,12 1,13

RSI; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential 22/11/2016; 22,992

Value USD

Auto 50

Mom; EUR=; Bid(Last); 14 22/11/2016; -0,0469 Value

USD Auto

22 29 05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28

Agustus 2016 September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016

@her1en

(3)

USD/JPY

Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-0.1% (JP)

• Reli tertahan di sekitar area 111.35 (Horizontal resistance)

• RSI sudah overbought

• Short-term support di sekitar 110 – 109

(Research – @ErwinRiset)

Nov 22 110.70 111.35 110.28 107 111.05 15 110.90

Nov 21 111.10 111.36 110.46 90 110.90 15 110.75

Nov 18 110.20 110.92 109.81 111 110.75 80 109.95

Nov 17 108.85 110.02 108.56 146 109.95 85 109.10

Nov 16 109.00 109.75 108.81 94 109.10 5 109.15

111.36 110.28 111.36 101.20 105.53 101.22 121.68 99.11

(21/Nov) (22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun)

RESISTANCE

113.80 High 29/Mar/2016

112.58 High 01/Apr/2016

111.90 High 25/Apr/2016 (Peak)

111.43 High 30/May/2016 (Peak)

SUPPORT

110.23 Low 22/Nov/2016

109.76 Low 18/Nov/2016

108.51 Low 17/Nov/2016

107.74 Low 15/Nov/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 111.20

STOP LOSS 111.80

TARGET 110.05

109.65

(4)

GBP/USD

Interest Rate: 0.25% (GB)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Koreksi hadapi trendline

support di sekitar 1.2330

• Formasi symmetrical triangle berpotensi batasi pergerakan

• Short-term support di sekitar 1.2297

Nov 22 1.2495 1.2512 1.2385 127 1.2415 75 1.2490

Nov 21 1.2325 1.2511 1.2312 199 1.2490 130 1.2360

Nov 18 1.2410 1.2436 1.2303 133 1.2360 65 1.2425

Nov 17 1.2440 1.2505 1.2410 95 1.2425 10 1.2435

Nov 16 1.2450 1.2502 1.2412 90 1.2435 20 1.2455

1.2512 1.2312 1.2673 1.2207 1.2946 1.1885 1.5018 1.1885

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (11/Nov) (01/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (24/Jun) (07/Oct)

RESISTANCE

1.2771 High 05/Oct/2016

1.2673 High 11/Nov/2016

1.2612 High 14/Nov/2016

1.2512 High 22/Nov/2016

SUPPORT

1.2297 Low 18/Nov/2016 (Bottom)

1.2218 Low 02/Nov/2016

1.2141 Low 31/Oct/2016

1.2112 Low 28/Oct/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1.2350

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 1.2270

TARGET 1.2435

1.2480

(5)

USD/CHF

Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/-1.25 to -0.25% (CH)

• Masih menguji area 1.0090

• RSI sudah overbought

• Short-term support di 1.0040 (Research – @ErwinRiset)

Nov 22 1.0080 1.0134 1.0069 65 1.0115 25 1.0090

Nov 21 1.0110 1.0116 1.0076 40 1.0090 10 1.0100

Nov 18 1.0075 1.0124 1.0061 63 1.0100 30 1.0070

Nov 17 1.0010 1.0077 0.9992 85 1.0070 45 1.0025

Nov 16 1.0020 1.0057 0.9984 73 1.0025 15 1.0010

1.0134 1.0069 1.0134 0.9551 0.9998 0.9697 1.0257 0.9444

(22/Nov) (22/Nov) (22/Nov) (09/Nov) (25/Oct) (03/Oct) (29/Jan) (03/May)

RESISTANCE

1.0308 High 02/Dec/2015 (Reaction high)

1.0257 High 29/Jan/2016 (Peak)

1.0226 High 02/Feb/2016

1.0197 High 03/Feb/2016

SUPPORT

1.0055 Low 18/Nov/2016

0.9952 Reaction low (1-H chart)

0.9868 Low 14/Nov/2016

0.9816 Low 10/Nov/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.0125

STOP LOSS 1.0200

TARGET 1.0035

1.0005

(6)

AUD/USD

Interest Rate: 1.5% (AU)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Terjadi koreksi dalam harian

• Dapat break area bearish trend channel harian (Research – @her1en)

Nov 22 0.7375 0.7413 0.7359 54 0.7400 35 0.7365

Nov 21 0.7320 0.7382 0.7311 71 0.7365 25 0.7340

Nov 18 0.7400 0.7418 0.7331 87 0.7340 75 0.7415

Nov 17 0.7490 0.7502 0.7397 105 0.7415 60 0.7475

Nov 16 0.7555 0.7571 0.7461 110 0.7475 85 0.7560

0.7413 0.7311 0.7777 0.7311 0.7734 0.7508 0.7828 0.6828

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (20/Oct) (13/Oct) (20/Apr) (15/Jan)

RESISTANCE

0.7629 High 11/Nov/2016

0.7580 High 15/Nov/2016

0.7502 High 17/Nov/2016

SUPPORT

0.7352 Low Nov 22

0.7302 Low 24/Jun/2016 (Bottom)

0.7283 Low 16/Jun/2016 (Bottom)

0.7199 Low 02/Jun/2016 (Reaction low)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.7375

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 0.7310

TARGET 0.7445

0.7475

Daily AUD= 02/09/2016 - 25/11/2016 (JAK)

0.7734 0.7732

0.7305 0.7502

0.7504

0.7555

0.7777

EMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 0,7531 WMA; AUD=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 0,7583 Cndl; AUD=; Bid

22/11/2016; 0,7368; 0,7413; 0,7352; 0,7394

Price USD

Auto 0,73 0,735 0,74 0,745 0,75 0,755 0,76 0,765 0,77

RSI; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

22/11/2016; 30,962 Value

USD Mom; AUD=; Bid(Last); 14 Auto

22/11/2016; -0,0264 Value

USD

05 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21

September 2016 Oktober 2016 Nopember 2016

@her1en

(7)

NZD/USD

Interest Rate: 2.00% (NZ)/0.25%-0.50% (US)

• Jauhi area bearish trend channel harian

Nov 22 0.7075 0.7085 0.7033 52 0.7065 5 0.7060

Nov 21 0.6990 0.7077 0.6985 92 0.7060 45 0.7015

Nov 18 0.7025 0.7060 0.7002 58 0.7015 15 0.7030

Nov 17 0.7090 0.7110 0.7014 96 0.7030 40 0.7070

Nov 16 0.7095 0.7113 0.7036 77 0.7070 30 0.7100

0.7085 0.6985 0.7402 0.6985 0.7310 0.7036 0.7485 0.6348

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (08/Nov) (21/Nov) (04/Oct) (13/Oct) (07/Sep) (20/Jan)

RESISTANCE

0.7307 High 10/Nov/2016

0.7228 High 11/Nov/2016

0.7140 High 14/Nov/2016

0.7085 High Nov 22

SUPPORT

0.6982 Low 26/Jul/2016

0.6949 Low 21/Jul/2016 (Bottom)

0.6798 Low 03/Jun/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 0.7035

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 0.6970

TARGET 0.7105

0.7135

Daily NZD= 06/09/2016 - 25/11/2016 (JAK)

0.7485

0.7402

0.7307

0.6978 0.7032

0.7143

Cndl; NZD=; Bid

22/11/2016; 0,7063; 0,7085; 0,7028; 0,7064 EMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 0,7141 WMA; NZD=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 0,7175

Price USD

Auto 0,7 0,705 0,71 0,715 0,72 0,725 0,73 0,735 0,74

RSI; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

22/11/2016; 37,026 Value

USD Mom; NZD=; Bid(Last); 14 Auto

22/11/2016; -0,0220 Value

USD

12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21

@her1en

(8)

EUR/JPY

Interest Rate: 0.00% (EU)/-0.1% (JP)

• Reli tembus area 118, hit day high di 118.15

• Reli hadapi resistance

berikutnya di sekitar 118.45

• Waspadai RSI sudah

overbought

Nov 22 117.75 118.15 117.40 75 118.00 15 117.85

Nov 21 117.55 117.99 117.31 68 117.85 55 117.30

Nov 18 117.10 117.46 116.76 70 117.30 45 116.85

Nov 17 116.50 117.21 116.27 94 116.85 25 116.60

Nov 16 116.95 117.48 116.52 96 116.60 55 117.15

118.15 117.31 118.15 113.75 116.28 112.61 132.25 109.60

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (09/Nov) (06/Oct) (21/Oct) (29/Jan) (24/Jun)

RESISTANCE

123.31 High 01/Jun/2016

122.68 High 07/Jun/2016 (Peak)

121.98 High 24/Jun/2016 (Peak)

118.45 High 21/Jul/2016 (Peak)

SUPPORT

117.20 Pivot line

116.22 Low 17/Nov/2016 (Reaction low)

115.39 Low 14/Nov/2016

114.93 Low 10/Nov/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 117.70

SELL ----

STOP LOSS 117.00

TARGET 118.50

119.15

(9)

USD/CAD

Interest Rate: 0.25%-0.50% (US)/0.5% (CA)

• Koreksi tembus area lowerline of bullish channel, hit day low di 1.3374

• Short-term support di sekitar 1.3350 – 1.3310

• Formasi consecutive lower highs dukung sinyal downtrend

WEEKLY OPEN CURRENT PRICE

1.3498 1.3448

1.3514 1.3374 1.3588 1.3260 1.3431 1.3002 1.4689 1.2458

(21/Nov) (22/Nov) (14/Nov) (09/Nov) (28/Oct) (19/Oct) (20/Jan) (03/May)

RESISTANCE

1.3859 High 24/Feb/2016 (Reaction high)

1.3734 High 25/Feb/2016

1.3588 High 14/Nov/2016

1.3514 High 21/Nov/2016

SUPPORT

1.3350 Pivot line

1.3220 Low 21/Oct/2016

1.3106 Low 20/Oct/2016

1.3002 Low 19/Oct/2016 (Bottom)

RECOMMENDATION

BUY ----

SELL 1.3480

STOP LOSS 1.3550

TARGET 1.3360– 1.3315

(10)

GOLD (XAU/USD)

•Jauhi area bearish trend channel harian

DATE OPEN HIGH LOW RANGE CLOSE CHANGE PREVIOUS AM FIX (16.30 WIB)

PM FIX (21.00 WIB) Nov 22 1216.00 1221.06 1206.30 14.76 1212.50 1.00 1213.50 1217.55 1212.25 Nov 21 1207.00 1217.63 1205.81 11.82 1213.50 5.00 1208.50 1214.95 1214.25 Nov 18 1215.00 1217.75 1204.16 13.59 1208.50 8.50 1217.00 1206.10 1211.00 Nov 17 1227.00 1231.41 1211.27 20.14 1217.00 8.00 1225.00 1232.00 1226.75 Nov 16 1227.00 1233.06 1221.63 11.43 1225.00 3.00 1228.00 1225.70 1229.20

1221.06 1205.81 1337.40 1204.16 1319.60 1241.72 1374.91 1062.28

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (07/Oct) (06/Jul) (04/Jan)

RESISTANCE

1265.40 High 11/Nov/2016

1237.22 Reaction high (1-H chart)

1233.06 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

1217.75 High Nov 18

SUPPORT

1205.36 Low Nov 21

1203.52 Low Nov 18

1199.60 Low 30/May/2016 (Bottom)

1180.90 Low 10/Feb/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 1208.00

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 1199.00

TARGET 1218.00

1223.00

Daily XAU= 12/09/2016 - 25/11/2016 (JAK)

1337.40 1328.06

1343.64

1233.06 1292.14

1203.52 Cndl; XAU=; Bid

22/11/2016; 1.213,8400; 1.221,0601; 1.205,8600; 1.211,9000 EMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 20

22/11/2016; 1.245,0461 WMA; XAU=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 1.263,9027

Price USD Ozs

Auto 1.200 1.220 1.240 1.260 1.280 1.300 1.320

RSI; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

22/11/2016; 25,828 Value

USD Ozs Mom; XAU=; Bid(Last); 14

22/11/2016; -84,9900 ^Value

USD

12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 Ozs

@her1en

(11)

SILVER (XAG/USD)

• Break area bearish trend channel harian

• Perhatikan RSI dekat area jenuh jual

Nov 22 16.54 16.84 16.49 0.35 16.63 0.09 16.54

Nov 21 16.52 16.72 16.47 0.24 16.54 0.01 16.53

Nov 18 16.63 16.72 16.39 0.33 16.53 0.10 16.64

Nov 17 16.93 17.04 16.53 0.51 16.64 0.30 16.94

Nov 16 17.01 17.19 16.82 0.37 16.94 0.09 17.03

16.84 16.47 18.95 16.39 19.28 17.08 21.10 13.73

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (09/Nov) (18/Nov) (03/Oct) (06/Oct) (04/Jul) (12/Jan)

RESISTANCE

18.83 High 11/Nov/2016

17.50 High 14/Nov/2016

17.23 High 16/Nov/2016 (Reaction high)

SUPPORT

16.42 Low Nov 18

15.77 Low 01/Jun/2016 (Bottom)

15.34 Low 11/Apr/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 16.55

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 16.30

TARGET 16.85

17.05

Daily XAG= 19/09/2016 - 25/11/2016 (JAK)

17.50 19.69

20.06

17.08

18.99

16.42

Cndl; XAG=; Bid

22/11/2016; 16,5880; 16,8900; 16,5100; 16,6200 EMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 20

22/11/2016; 17,3930 WMA; XAG=; Bid(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 17,7602

Price USD Ozs

Auto 16 16,5 17 17,5 18 18,5 19 19,5

RSI; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14; Exponential

22/11/2016; 25,768 Value

USD Ozs

Auto Mom; XAG=; Bid(Last); 14

22/11/2016; -1,8200 Value

USD 19 20 21 22 23 26 27 28 29 30 03 04 05 06 07 10 11 12 13 14 17 18 19 20 21 24 25 26 27 28 31 01 02 03 04 07 08 09 10 11 14 15 16 17 18 21 22 23 24 25Ozs

@her1en

(12)

CLF7/USD (OIL)

(Exp.: 20 Dec. 2016 - Reuters)

• RSI harian jauhi area jenuh jual

• Dekati level tertinggi 49.36- 50.42

Nov 22 (CLF7) 48.35 49.18 47.16 2.02 47.89 0.42 48.31

Nov 21 (CLF7) 46.60 48.49 46.46 2.03 48.31 2.01 46.30

Nov 18 (CLF7) 45.51 46.42 45.16 1.26 46.30 0.80 45.50

Nov 17 (CLF7) 45.85 47.10 45.46 1.64 45.50 0.33 45.83

Nov 17 (CLZ6) 45.35 46.55 44.86 1.69 44.91 0.41 45.32

Nov 16 45.77 46.39 45.03 1.36 45.32 0.43 45.75

49.18 46.46 49.18 42.19 52.20 46.62 51.65 26.04

(22/Nov) (21/Nov) (22/Nov) (14/Nov) (19/Oct) (31/Oct) (09/Jun) (11/Feb)

RESISTANCE

48.74 High 31/Oct/2016

SUPPORT

46.46 Low Nov 21

45.18 Low Nov 18

44.38 Reaction low (1-H chart)

43.55 Low 15/Nov/2016

RECOMMENDATION

BUY 47.65

SELL ---

STOP LOSS 46.45

TARGET 49.15

49.65

Daily CLF7 30/08/2016 - 28/11/2016 (JAK)

52.74

42.95

49.20 49.36

45.18 51.55

Cndl; CLF7; Trade Price 22/11/2016; 48,37; 49,20; 47,17; 47,91 WMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 55 22/11/2016; 47,96 EMA; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 20 22/11/2016; 46,96

Price USD Bbl

Auto 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50 51 52

RSI; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14; Exponential

22/11/2016; 62,138 Value

USD Bbl Mom; CLF7; Trade Price(Last); 14

22/11/2016; 1,98 Value

USDBbl

06 12 19 26 03 10 17 24 31 07 14 21 28

@her1en