Page 1 of 6 31 March 2016
Samuel Equity Research
Please see important disclaimer on the last page of this report.
Still Expecting Further Growth
ROTI mencatatkan kinerja yang solid pada FY15, dengan laba bersih tumbuh sebesar 43.4%YoY dan mencapai Rp271 miliar (FY14: Rp189 miliar), relatif in-line dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus. Pada level top-line, ROTI berhasil membukukan penjualan bersih sebesar Rp2,2 triliun (FY14:Rp 1.9 triliun), di mana pertumbuhan penjualan tersebut mayoritas ditopang oleh peningkatan volume. Hal tersebut membuktikan bahwa di tengah tren melemahnya daya beli masyarakat secara keseluruhan, permintaan terhadap produk ROTI tetap kuat, sehingga kami berpendapat bahwa bisnis ROTI ke depannya akan tetap resilient, meskipun di tengah lesunya perekonomian Indonesia. Dengan didukung perbaikan sistem distribusi dan lebih luasnya cakupan pasar pasca ekspansi ke Filipina, kami tetap optimis terhadap kinerja ROTI untuk tahun ini dan mempertahankan BUY, dengan TP Rp1,500 /lembar saham, 16E’PE: 27.6x, PBV: 5.3x)
Kinerja FY15 sesuai ekspektasi. ROTI mencatatkan pertumbuhan laba
bersih 43.3%YoY (FY15: Rp271 miliar vs FY14: Rp189 miliar), relatif in-line dengan estimasi kami dan konsensus. Selain didorong oleh kenaikan penjualan, pertumbuhan laba bersih tersebut didorong oleh naiknya laba operasional seiring dengan peningkatan efisiensi oleh perusahaan serta naiknya laba kotor, mengikuti turunnya harga bahan baku. Mengacu pada harga gandum yang sudah turun 36% sejak tahun 2014, menguatnya nilai Rupiah, rendahnya harga minyak, turunnya harga listrik, pada ‘16E kami percaya diri untuk mempertahankan gross profit margin di kisaran 53%.
Perluasan pasar dan perbaikan sistem distribusi. ROTI telah bekerja sama
dengan Monde Nissin Corporation untuk memproduksi roti di Filipina dengan nilai investasi 6.8 juta dolar AS. Kami menilai, ROTI dapat berhasil memperluas cakupan pasarnya, karena Filipina memiliki banyak kemiripan dengan Indonesia, terutama dari segi demografi kependudukan serta pola konsumsi makanan. Selain itu, ROTI juga terus berupaya meningkatkan kinerja sistem distribusinya, dengan menargetkan kenaikan kontribusi dari
General Trade (‘16E: 30% vs FY15: 24%). Dalam mewujudkan peningkatan
kontribusi tersebut,ROTI mengangkat Head of Sales yang khusus menangani penjualan melalui General Trade. Dengan konsentrasi yang lebih spesifik ini, kami menilai, manajemen dapat lebih handal dalam menangani profil pembeli yang berbeda dan sales return dapat ditekan (‘16E: 12% vs FY15: 13%). All in
all, dengan didukung oleh lebih luasnya pasar, meningkatnya permintaan
terhadap produk – produk ROTI seiring membaiknya daya beli masyarakat, serta tingkat penetrasi yang lebih baik seiring digunakannya aplikasi untuk sistem distribusi, kami optimis pertumbuhan penjualan dapat mencapai 20%YoY pada ‘16E.
Valuasi dan rekomendasi. Didukung oleh katalis positif di atas, kuatnya
ekuitas merek, dan economies of scale yang dimiliki, kami mempertahankan rekomendasi BUY dengan TP Rp1,500/lembar saham.
Marlene Tanumihardja +62 21 2854 8387 [email protected] Target Price Rp 1,500 Last Price Rp 1,290 Potential Upside 16.3% JCI Index 4,845 Share isued (bn) 5.06 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 6.48 52-Weeks High/Low 1420/1020
Avg Daily Vol (m n) 4.26
Free Float 42.4%
Nom inal Value Rp 200
Book value/share ‘16 Rp281
Relative to JCI Chart
Com pany Background
Shareholder Structure
Indoritel Makmur Internasional
Tbk 31.50%
Bonlight Investments Ltd 25.12%
Pasco Shikisima Corporation 8.50%
Sojitz Corporation 4.25%
Public 30.62%
BUY (Maintain)
PT Nippon Indosari Corpindo Tbk is the largest bread producer in Indonesia. The company markets its products under the brand name “Sari Roti” and controls 90% market share in Indonesia’s mass production bread segment.
60 80 100 120 140
Jul-15 Oct-15 Jan-16
JCI ROTI
Fore cas t and Valuation (at clos ing price Rp1,290 pe r s hare )
Yr-e nd De c (Rp bn) 14A 15E 16E 17E
Revenue 1,880 2,174 2,608 3,257 EBITDA 397 564 600 794 Net Prof it 189 275 275 409 EPS (Rp) 37 53 54 81 DPS (Rp) 3 6 8 14 Dividend Yield (%) 0.2 0.4 0.6 1.1 BV per Share (Rp) 190 235 281 348 EV/EBITDA (x) 18.0 12.3 12.0 9.2 P/E Ratio (x) 34.6 24.1 23.7 16.0 P/BV Ratio (x) 6.8 5.5 4.6 3.7
www.samuel.co.id Page 2 of 6 Thursday, 31 March 2016
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK
Figure 1. ROTI – Result Performances and Comparisons
Source: Company, SSI estimates
Figure 2. ROTI – General vs Modern Trade Distribution Coverage
Source: Company, SSI estimates
Figure 3. ROTI’s PE Band
Source: Bloomberg, SSI estimates
(in Rp bn) 4Q14 3Q15 4Q15 QoQ YoY FY14 FY15 YoY FY15 vs
SSI FY15 vs Cons Sales 519 530 605 114.2% 16% 1,880 2174 16% 100% 100% COGS (250) (250) (280) 112.2% 12% (979) (1020) 4% Gross Profit 270 280 326 116.3% 21% 901 1155 28% 100% 103%
Total Operating Expense (173) (174) (176) 101.3% 2% (603) (700) 16%
Selling Expense (137) (129) (136) 105.4% 0% (483) (544) 13%
G&A Expense (44) (56) (48) 85.8% 10% (156) (194) 24%
Other Operating Income (Expense) 8 11 8 72.1% 4% 36 38 5%
Operating Profit 97 106 150 140.9% 54% 299 455 52% 106% 119%
Non-Operating Income (expense) (21) (15) 154 -1049.7% -845% (46) 105 -329%
Pre-tax Income 76 91 122 133.7% 61% 253 378 50% Tax (19) (23) (44) 191.4% 127% (64) (108) 68% Net Income 57 69 79 114.5% 38% 189 271 43% 104% 105% Profitability Gross margin 51.9% 53% 54% 1.0% 2.0% 47.9% 53.1% 5.2% Operating margin 18.6% 20% 25% 4.7% 6.1% 15.9% 20.9% 5.0% Pre-tax margin 14.7% 17% 20% 3.0% 5.5% 13.4% 17.4% 4.0% Net margin 11.0% 13% 13% 0.0% 2.0% 10.0% 12.4% 2.4% 24% 30% 76% 70% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 2015 2016F
General Trade Modern Trade
28.8 36.7 21.0 13.1 44.6 5 15 25 35 45 55
Jan-11 Aug-11 Mar-12 Oct-12 May-13 Dec-13 Jul-14 Feb-15 Sep-15 Average ST dev +1 ST dev -1 PER - Roll ST dev -2 ST dev +2
Figure 4. Wheat Price
Source: Company, SSI Estimates
Figure 5. Historical Recommendation
Source: Company, SSI Estimates
400 450 500 550 600 650 700 750
Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16
Date 1-Feb-16 Year Book’16 28-Apr-15 18-Feb-15 28-Nov-14 29-Oct-14 22-Oct-14
Recommendation Closing Price Target
BUY 1,305 1,500 BUY 1,105 1,435 BUY 1,215 1,415 BUY 1,210 1,435 BUY 1,210 1,490 BUY 1,225 1,490 BUY 1,190 1,490
www.samuel.co.id Page 4 of 6 Thursday, 31 March 2016
Nippon Indosari Corpindo
ROTI.IJ / ROTI.JK
Key Financials
Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E
Revenue 1,880 2,174 2,608 3,257 Net Income 189 271 276 368
COGS 979 1,019 1,237 1,533 Depreciation & Ammort. 93 107 143 170
Gross profit 901 1,155 1,372 1,724 Others 0 0 0 0
Gross margin (%) 47.9 53.1 52.6 52.9 Working capital (55) 96 (104) (5)
Operating profit 299 454 469 622 Operating Cash Flow 226 460 315 533
Operating margin (%) 15.9 20.9 18.0 19.1 Net - Capital expenditure (598) (249) (760) (556)
EBITDA 397 564 613 794 Investing Cash Flow (357) (278) (793) (582)
EBITDA margin (%) 21.1 26.0 23.5 24.4 Net - Borrowings 179 159 446 100
Other Income (Expenses) (46) (72) (88) (132) Other financing 13 12 (76) (47)
Pre-tax profit 253 378 381 490 Financing Cash Flow 192 171 370 53
Income tax - net 64 107 105 123 Net - Cash flow 61 353 (107) 4
Net profit 189 271 276 368 Cash at beginning 101 163 515 408
Net profit margin (%) 10.0 12.5 10.6 11.3 Cash at ending 163 515 408 412
Balance Sheet Key Ratios
Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E
Cash & ST Investment 163 515 408 412 ROE 20% 23% 19% 21%
Receivables 213 249 275 343 ROA 9% 10% 8% 10%
Inventories 41 43 49 61 Revenue Growth (%) 25 16 20 25
Others 4 6 49 62 EBITDA Growth (%) 34 42 9 29
Total Current Assets 420 813 781 877 EPS Growth (%) 19 44 2 33
Net fixed assets 1,680 1,822 2,438 2,824 Interest Coverage (x) 7 6 5 5
Other assets 43 72 104 130 Debt to Equity (%) 87 84 101 89
Total Assets 2,143 2,706 3,324 3,832 Net Gearing (%) 70 40 72 65
Payables 126 159 180 223
ST. debt and curr. maturity 48 0 440 1,040 Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities 134 236 186 231 Yr-end Dec (Rp bn) 14A 15A 16E 17E
LT. debt 788 994 1,000 500 Inflation rate (%) 8.4 3.0 4.5 5.5
Other long term liabilities 87 127 92 114 Sales volume growth (%) 13.7 8.6 20.0 21.9
Total Liabilities 1,183 1,517 1,899 2,109 ASP growth (%) 10.6 7.0 0.0 3.0
www.samuel.co.id Page 6 of 6 DISCLAIMERS
Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations.
This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas Indonesia.
