We estimate JCI to rally with the support range of 5781-5787 and resistance

(1)

Morning Brief

The global markets moved positively amid the tariff of 10% on Chinese products

by the U.S. government. China stated to retaliate by imposing USD60 billion on

the U.S. products. The tariffs will take into effect on September 24, 2018.

Today’s Outlook: Tit

-

for

-

Tat Tariffs by China

We estimate JCI to rally with the

support range of 5781-5787

and

resistance

range of 5869-5879

. The positive sentiment comes from the intensively

protracted trade war between the U.S. and China. After President Trump

announced the tariffs of USD200 billion on Chinese products, China retaliated by

imposing USD60 billion on the U.S. products. However, the tariffs import

implemented is only 10% lower than the initial plan of 20%. This escalating

tension signals that the current tension is not as looming as what investors

estimate.

From the domestic outlook, investors likely digest the government’s latest policy

set for overcoming rupiah depreciation. The government has the commodities

exporters to keep 50% of exports in Indonesia within 6 months.

(2)

Stocks Recommendation

BBNI

Last = 7225

Analysis

Amid the pressure of lagging NIM in the

banking industry, BBNI is capable of posting

the consistent hike in NIM from 5.4% in 4Q17

into 5.6% in 2Q18.

Range

7150 – 7550

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 7150

GGRM

Last = 72200

Analysis

GGRM has showed a significant improvement

in its performance. Its sales and net profit

respectively grow by 15% and 35%.

Range

71800 – 74800

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 71800

ANTM

Last = 790

Analysis

The trend of ANTM’s gold sales increased in

2018. It hiked its target of 2018’s sales volume

from 24 tons to 25.3 ton. Until 8M18, its sales

volume has reached 18.1 tons or 71.5% from

the target.

Range

775 – 830

Action

Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 775

Source: Bloomberg

Sector Rotation

Source: Bloomberg

(3)

(4)

Company News

Domestic & Global News

July's ULN Growth Lags

Bank Indonesia (BI) posted the foreign debt (ULN) of Indonesia at the end of July to increase by 4.8% y

-

y to USD358 billion

and to lag compared to June’s ULN of 5.5% y

-

y. The lagging ULN's growth was mainly attributable to the lagging growth of

4.1% y

-

y to USD177.4 billion in the government’s ULN. (Kontan)

China to Penalize $60 Billion of U.S. Imports in Tit

-

for

-

tat Move

China and the United States plunged deeper into a trade war on Tuesday after Beijing added $60 billion of U.S. products to

its import tariff list in retaliation for President Donald Trump’s planned levies on $200 billion worth of Chinese goods. The

tit

-

for

-

tat measures are the latest escalation in an increasingly protracted trade dispute between the world’s two largest

economies. (Reuters)

LPKR

: Divests REIT Stock of IDR2.18 Trillion

LPKR divested Real Estate Investment Trust (REIT) worth

IDR2.18 trillion. The divestment is projected to finish in

November 2018. After the divestment, the ownership of

LPKR’s stocks in First Reit declined from 28.2% to 10.6%.

The funds obtained will bolster LPKR’s financial

performance whose most of its debt are in the U.S.

denomination. (Kontan)

HEXA

: Distributes Dividend of USD18.03 Million

HEXA will distribute the cash dividend of USD18,03

million. The amount is equal to 80% of 2017’s net profit

(ended March 31,2018) of USD22.54 million. The dividend

divided by the number of HEXA’s stocks results in

USD0.02148 per stock. (Bisnis Indonesia)

ASII

: Strengthens Astra Digital

ASII will strengthen ASTRA Digital — ASII’s business in the

digital service segment. In ahead years, Astra Digital is

projected to provide solutions relevant to consumers’

need and updated development. Now, Astra Digital has

three products, namely CariParkir — application for finding

parking lot; Seva.id — application for automotive selling

and purchase; and Sejalan — ride sharing application.

(Bisnis Indonesia)

MPPA

: Sets Conservative Growth Target

Responding to the current economic backdrop, MPPA sets

a conservative growth target because it is aware of rupiah

depreciation likely effecting consumers’ purchasing

power. However, until the end of 2018, it will launch 2

-

4

(5)

Global Economic Calendar

Date

Country

Hour

Jakarta

Event

Period

Actual

Consensus

Monday

EU

16:00

CPI Core YoY

Aug F

1.00%

17 - Sep

EU

16:00

CPI YoY

Aug F

2.00%

2.10%

EU

16:00

CPI MoM

Aug

0.20%

-

0.30%

Wednesday

JPN

Tentative

BOJ Policy Balance Rate

19 -

Sep

--

-

0.10%

19 -

Sep

JPN

Tentative

BOJ 10

-

Yr Yield Target

19 -

Sep

--

0.00%

JPN

06:50

Trade Balance

Aug

-

¥444.6b

-

¥514.4b

-

¥231.2b

JPN

06:50

Exports YoY

Aug

6.60%

5.20%

3.90%

JPN

06:50

Imports YoY

Aug

15.40%

14.50%

14.60%

UK

15:30

CPI MoM

Aug

0.50%

0.00%

UK

15:30

CPI YoY

Aug

2.40%

2.50%

UK

15:30

CPI Core YoY

Aug

--

1.90%

USA

19:30

Current Account Balance

2Q

-

$103.3b

-

$124.1b

Thursday

USA

19:30

Initial Jobless Claims

15 -

Sep

--

204k

20 -

Sep

EU

21:00

Consumer Confidence

Sep A

-

2 -

1.9 USA

21:00

Existing Home Sales

Aug

5.38m

5.34m

Friday

JPN

06:30

Natl CPI YoY

Aug

1.10%

0.90%

21 -

Sep

JPN

07:30

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

Sep P

--

52.5 GER

14:30

Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI

Sep P

56.1

55.9 EU

15:00

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Sep P

54.6

54.6 USA

20:45

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Sep P

55

54.7 Source: Bloomberg

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic Economic Calendar

Date

Hour

Jakarta

Event

Period

Actual

Consensus

Prev.

Monday

11:00

Exports YoY

Aug

4.15%

9.10%

19.33%

17 -

Sep

11:00

Imports YoY

Aug

24.65%

24.00%

31.56%

11:00

Trade Balance

Aug

-

$1,021.4m

-

$417m

-

$2,030m

Corporate Calendar

Date

Event

Company

Monday

Cum Dividend Date

JASS (IDR73 per share)

17 -

Sep

Tuesday

IPO Listing

DIGI, PANI

18 - Sep

Annual Shareholder Meeting

HEXA

Cum Dividend Date

IKBI (IDR5 per share)

Wednesday

Annual Shareholder Meeting

CNTB

19 -

Sep

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

CPRO, SAIP

Thursday

Annual Shareholder Meeting

ITMA

20 -

Sep

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

BABP, CSAP, PSSI

Friday

Annual Shareholder Meeting

MYTX

21 -

Sep

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

MDKA, GAMA

Rights Delisting Date

AGRO

(6)

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