Previous Day:
Pada penutupan perdagangan hari Rabu (18/12), IHSG naik sebanyak 13,936 poin (0,33%) ke level 4196,282. Ada seban-yak 114 saham yang naik, 116 saham yang mengalami ko-reksi, dan 116 saham yang stagnan. Total perdagangan hari ini sebanyak Rp 6,781 triliun. LQ45 naik 3,363 poin (0,48%) ke level 697,015. Sektor-sektor di zona hijau adalah sektor agrikultur naik 1,76%, sektor industri dasar naik 1,16%, dan sektor pertambangan naik 0,91%. Foreign net buy sebesar Rp 280,38 miliar. Indeks Nikkei menguat 2,02%. Indeks Straits Times jatuh 0,12%. Indeks Hang Seng melesat 0,32%. Indeks Shanghai menipis 0,13%.
Today’s Market:
Secara teknikal indeks hari Kamis (19/12), prediksi IHSG akan bergerak menguat di kisaran 4174-4236. Housing starts AS bulan September bertambah menjadi 1,09 juta (estimasi 925 ribu) dari 891 ribu pada bulan sebelumnya. Selain itu, keputusan the Fed untuk mempertahankan suku bunga di level 0.25% dan hasil rapat FOMC mengenai rencana pengu-rangan stimulus dari USD 85 miliar per bulannya menjadi USD 75 miliar setelah adanya perbaikan pada kegiatan ekonomi AS akan mempengaruhi pergerakan indeks hari ini.
Top Technical Buys: INTP, SMGR, GGRM, ITMG
Sinarmas Investment Research/ 62 21 3925550/research@sinarmassekuritas.co.id
DAILY RESEARCH
UNDERVALUED STOCKS 2013: MYOR 34,600 ROTI 1,330 Closing JCI Transaction Value (Rp tn) Transaction Volume (mn shares)
Foreign Net Buy (Sell) (Rp bn) 280.38 Foreign Net Buy (Sell) YTD (Rp tn) (18.35)
as percentage of last year's (1.92)
Total Market Capitalization (Rp tn) 3,866.48 Closing 1 Day Return % YTD Change % 4,196.28 0.33 (2.8) 697.02 0.48 (5.2) 22.42 1.91 (25.9) 21.65 1.93 (24.4) 16,167.97 1.84 23.4 1,810.65 1.66 27.0 4,070.06 1.15 34.8 6,492.08 0.09 10.1 15,833.09 2.02 52.3 23,143.82 0.32 2.1 3,061.78 (0.12) (3.3) 1,847.50 (0.18) 9.4 FOREX Change YTD Change % USD/IDR 42.50 (19.5) EUR/IDR 17.69 (22.7) JPY/IDR 0.15 (4.3) SGD/IDR (39.58) (16.5) AUD/IDR 2.12 (6.9) GBP/IDR 40.15 (20.2) Price 1 Day Return % YTD Change % CRUDE OIL (USD)/BARREL 97.60 (0.20) 6.3 COAL (USD) / MT 85.15 1.37 (5.6) NATURAL GAS (USD) / mmBtu 4.28 0.68 27.7
GOLD (USD) / OUNCE 1,224.23 0.47 (26.9)
NICKEL (USD) / MT 14,140.00 0.57 (17.1) TIN (USD) / MT 22,910.00 0.59 (2.1) CPO (MYR) / MT 2,502.00 0.00 7.8 RUBBER (JPY)/KG 280.00 (1.06) (3.0) WHEAT/BUSHEL 6.13 (1.13) (21.2) CORN/BUSHEL 4.25 (0.41) (39.1) 4,196.28 6.781 7,119 IDX Statistics Commodities JCI LQ45 EIDO IDX 9,605.91 10,838.05 19,840.58 Key Indices STRAITS TIMES KLSE Rate (IDR) 12,167.50 16,724.02 118.02 HANG SENG DOW JONES S&P 500 NASDAQ FTSE NIKKEI Th u rsd ay, December 19, 2013 4170 4190 4210 4230
JCI Index
2
CORPORATE NEWS
Th u rsd a y, December 19, 2013•
Produksi minyak sawit PT Astra Agro Lestari Tbk (AALI) meningkat 4,1% menjadi 1,39 juta ton. Kenai-kan CPO ini ditopang oleh produksi selama bulan November sebesar 155.321 ton. Selain itu, produksi ker-nel milik anak usaha PT Astra International Tbk (ASII) juga tumbuh. Produksi tersebut naik tipis 1,3% dari 293.115 menjadi 296.886 ton secara year-on-year (yoy). Meski demikian, produksi TBS justru menurun 6,8% menjadi 4,66 juta ton. (Positive) Source: Kontan•
PT Chandra Asri Petrochemical Tbk (TPIA), melalui anak usahanya PT Petrokimia Butadiene Indonesia (PBI) akan mulai mengoperasikan pabrik butadiene pada kuartal I 2014. Parbrik ini ditargetkan berka-pasitas produksi 120 ribu ton per tahun. Pabrik ini akan menggunakan bahan baku dari produk TPIA yaitu mixed C4. Investasi pembangunan pabrik tersebut mencapai US$ 150 juta. Perusahaan juga menambah fasilitas produksi naphta cracker senilai total US$ 380 j uta. Dengan ekspansi ini, kapasitas produksi berba-gai produk petrokimia TPIA akanmeningkat 43% per tahun. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today•
PT Industri Jamu dan Farmasi Sido Muncul Tbk (SIDO) menganggarkan belanja modal 2014 sebesar Rp365,14 miliar. Belanja modal akan digunakan untuk pembangunan pabrik di lahan baru. Menurut mana-jemen perusahaan, perusahaan akan membebaskan tanak seluas 10 hektare (ha) disekitar pabrik untuk perluasan produksi. Perluasan produksi akan dilakukan untuk produk Tolak Angin dan produksi bahan baku. Pasca per luasan, kapasitas produksi tolak angin akan naik 100% menjadi 140 juta sachet per bulan. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
•
PT Surya Esa Perkasa Tbk (ESSA) memproyeksikan laba bersih perusahaan tahun ini naik 40% yoy. Hal ini didukung oleh kenaikan pendapatan yang diperkirakan mencapai US$ 40 juta yoy. Perusahaan juga menargetkan produksi liquid petroleum gas (LPG) hingga akhir Desember 2013 sebanyak 40 ribu metrik ton. Disamping itu, perusahaan mengalokasikan belanja modal sekitar US$ 21 juta. Sekitar US$ 6 juta –US$ 7 juta telah direalisasikan pada 2013 dan sisanya US$ 14 juta– US$ 15 juta dianggarkan tahun 2014 untuk pengembangan proyek PT Panca Amara Utama. (Positive) Source: Indonesia Finance Today
Eddy Wijaya/ Technical Analyst/62 21 3925550
TRADING VIEW
Th u rsd a y, December 19, 2013
By: Rheza, Tie sha, R icha rdRESEARCH DEPARTMENT
TICKER RECOMMENDATION PRICE ENTRY EXIT S2 S1 R1 R2 EXPLANATION
AGRICULTURE
AALI Buy on Weakness 23200 22950 23500 22650 22950 23500 23800 Rsi : reversal BWPT Buy on Weakness 1300 1280 1320 1260 1280 1320 1350 Gravestone doji LSIP Buy on Weakness 1830 1800 1860 1780 1800 1860 1890 White spinning top BANK & FINANCE
BMRI Buy on Weakness 7700 7600 7800 7500 7600 7800 7950 Black spinning top BBRI Buy on Weakness 7100 7000 7200 6900 7000 7200 7400 White spinning top BBNI Buy on Weakness 3900 3850 3950 3800 3850 3950 4050 Black spinning top BBCA Buy on Weakness 9450 9300 9600 9200 9300 9600 9800 Rsi : downtrend CONSUMER GOODS
INDF Buy on Weakness 6600 6500 6700 6400 6500 6700 6800 Rsi : downtrend
ICBP Buy on Weakness 10150 10000 10250 9850 10000 10250 10350 White spinning top GGRM Trading Buy 41150 41150 41600 40350 40800 41600 42050 Stoc osc : downtrend UNVR Buy on Weakness 25900 25650 26200 25400 25650 26200 26400 Rsi : downtrend CPIN Buy on Weakness 3250 3200 3300 3150 3200 3300 3400 Black spinning top MAIN Buy on Weakness 3250 3200 3300 3150 3200 3300 3400 Rsi : downtrend BASIC & MISC INDUSTRY
ASII Buy on Weakness 6250 6150 6300 6050 6150 6300 6450 Inverted hammer SMGR Trading Buy 13500 13500 13900 13150 13350 13900 14250 Rsi : uptrend INTP Trading Buy 19800 19800 20000 19350 19600 20000 20250 Macd : downtrend INFRASTRUCTURE
TLKM Buy on Weakness 2075 2025 2100 1980 2025 2100 2150 Long legged doji PGAS Buy on Weakness 4600 4550 4650 4450 4550 4650 4800 White spinning top JSMR Trading Sell 4725 4725 4650 4600 4650 4800 4900 Macd : downtrend TBIG Buy on Weakness 5750 5650 5850 5550 5650 5850 6000 Inverted hammer
RETAIL
MAPI Trading Sell 5850 5850 5700 5600 5700 5950 6100 Stoc osc : downtrend RALS Buy on Weakness 1040 1020 1050 1000 1020 1050 1080 Stoc osc : uptrend ACES Buy on Weakness 640 620 650 600 620 650 670 Long legged doji MPPA Buy on Weakness 1870 1850 1880 1830 1850 1880 1900 White spinning top MINING
PTBA Buy on Weakness 11250 11100 11400 11000 11100 11400 11600 Macd : downtrend ADRO Buy on Weakness 1150 1120 1170 1100 1120 1170 1200 White spinning top ITMG Trading Buy 29100 29100 29250 28500 28750 29250 29600 Macd : reversal ANTM Trading Buy 1170 1170 1190 1120 1150 1190 1210 Stoc osc : uptrend TINS Buy on Weakness 1600 1580 1620 1560 1580 1620 1640 Black spinning top UNTR Buy on Weakness 18150 17950 18350 17700 17950 18350 18500 Macd : downtrend PROPERTY
ASRI Buy on Weakness 455 445 460 430 445 460 475 Rsi : downtrend LPKR Buy on Weakness 910 890 920 870 890 920 940 Gravestone doji CTRA Buy on Weakness 750 730 760 710 730 760 780 Stoc osc : uptrend APLN Trading Sell 220 220 210 200 210 230 240 Stoc osc : downtrend SMRA Buy on Weakness 800 780 820 760 780 820 840 Macd : downtrend SSIA Buy on Weakness 650 630 660 610 630 660 680 Rsi : uptrend BSDE Buy on Weakness 1320 1300 1340 1270 1300 1340 1370 Macd : downtrend WIKA Buy on Weakness 1650 1630 1660 1610 1630 1660 1680 Stoc osc : uptrend PTPP Trading Buy 1170 1150 1180 1130 1150 1180 1200 Stoc osc : uptrend ADHI Buy on Weakness 1600 1580 1610 1560 1580 1610 1630 Stoc osc : reversal
4
Global Equity Indices
Description YTD Change % 19-Dec-13 Forward 2013 P/E Ratio (Best Est.)
LQ45 (5.2) 697 Nikkei 225 52.3 15,831 JCI (2.8) 4,196 FTSE 100 10.1 6,492 ASX 200 10.6 5,144 DJIA 23.4 16,168 S&P500 27.0 1,811 STI (3.3) 3,062 CAC 40 12.9 4,110 Shanghai Composite (5.3) 2,148 DAX 20.6 9,182 KOSPI (0.4) 1,989 Hang Seng 2.1 23,144 Euro Stoxx 12.9 2,975
Description YTD Change % 19-Dec-13 Description YTD Change % 19-Dec-13
AALI 17.8 22,900 ICBP 30.1 10,150 ADRO (27.7) 1,150 IMAS (6.6) 4,950 AKRA 15.1 4,775 INCO 7.4 2,525 ANTM (8.6) 1,170 INDF 12.8 6,600 ASII (17.8) 6,250 INDY (57.0) 610 ASRI (24.2) 455 INTP (11.8) 19,800 BBCA 3.8 9,450 ITMG (30.0) 29,100 BBNI 5.4 3,900 JSMR (13.3) 4,725 BBRI 2.2 7,100 KLBF 14.2 1,210 BBTN (37.9) 900 LPKR (9.0) 910 BDMN (33.2) 3,775 LSIP (20.4) 1,830 BHIT (38.9) 330 MAIN 36.8 3,250 BKSL (12.2) 166 MAPI (12.0) 5,850 BMRI (4.9) 7,700 MNCN (1.0) 2,475 BMTR (19.2) 1,940 PGAS 0.0 4,600 BSDE 18.9 1,320 PTBA (25.5) 11,250 BUMI (42.4) 340 SMCB (23.3) 2,225 BWPT (5.8) 1,300 SMGR (14.8) 13,500 CPIN (11.0) 3,250 SSIA (39.8) 650 EXCL (12.3) 5,000 TLKM 15.3 2,075 GGRM (26.9) 41,150 UNTR (7.9) 18,150 GIAA (25.8) 490 UNVR 24.2 25,900
HRUM (47.5) 3,150 JAKPROP INDEXJAKBIND INDEX
Sectors JAKFIN INDEX
Description JAKCONS INDEX
Property (3.8) JAKMIND INDEX
Basic Industry (3.9) JAKINFR INDEX
Trade (5.1) JAKAGRI INDEX
Finance (5.3) JAKMINE INDEX
Miscellaneous Industry (4.7) Consumer (7.2) Infrastructure (5.4) Agriculture 2.9 Mining (2.7) 1-mth Return % Selected Indonesian Equities
14.5 20.3 14.5 13.5 14.8 15.2 16.3 14.5 13.6 9.4 13.7 9.4 11.0 13.7
See important disclaimer at the end of this report
Dividen
Stock Split
Upcoming IPO
Th u rsd a y, December 19, 2013
Ticker Status DPS (Rp) Cum Date Ex Date Recording Payment
EMTK Final 29 26 November 2013 27 November 2013 29 November 2013 13 Desember 2013
BBCA Final 45 28 November 2013 29 November 2013 3 Desember 2013 17 Desember 2013
LPKR Final 11.85 29 November 2013 2 Desember 2013 4 Desember 2013 18 Desember 2013
HMSP Final 969 2 Desember 2013 3 Desember 2013 5 Desember 2013 18 Desember 2013
BATA Final 15.08 9 Desember 2013 10 Desember 2013 12 Desember 2013 20 Desember 2013
Ticker OS:NS Ticker OS:NS
MAPI 1:10 NIPS 1:20
ALMI 1:2 INAI 1:2
Company Business Offering
Date
Share in Rp.
Price Listing Date
PT Bank Muamalat indonesia Perbankan 550-975
PT Blue Bird Jasa operator taksi dan jasa angkutan
penumpang darat
PT Citra Borneo Indah Kelapa Sawit
PT Dwi Aneka Jaya Kemasindo Kemasan percetakan offset dan karton
gelombang
425-550 16-Dec-13
PT Eka Sari Lorena Transport Transportasi
PT Puradelta Lestari Properti 205-255
PT Industri Jamu Sido Muncul Jamu 580 18-Dec-13
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Global Reference Rates FOREX Rate (USD) Change %
FED Rate 0.25 USDIDR 12,168 (0.35)
BI Rate 7.50 USDEUR 0.73 (0.03)
ECB Rate 0.25 USDJPY 104 0.18
BOJ Rate 0.10 USDSGD 1.26 0.01
BOE Rate 0.50 USDAUD 1.13 0.01
PBOC Rate 6.00 USDGBP 0.61 0.05
Description November October
Inflation YTD (%) 7.79 7.66 8.25
Inflation YOY (%) 8.37 8.32 0.88
Inflation MOM (%) 0.12 0.09 1.46
Foreign Reserve (USD Bn) 97.00 95.70 7.97
GDP (YOY Growth) 3Q2013 (%) 5.62 5.62 8.42
GDP (IDR tn) 3Q2013 2.96 2.96 8.98
Dual Listed Price (IDR) Change %
TLKM (US) 2,214.58 0.00
ANTM (GR) 982.63 1.72
%
Lending & Deposit Rates
INDOGB 15Y YIELD (%) JIBOR (IDR) (%) LIBOR (GBP) (%) SIBOR (USD) (%) INDOGB 5Y YIELD (%) INDOGB 10Y YIELD (%)
MACRO INDICATORS RAPBN 2014 APBN-P 2013 APBN 2013
GDP (%) 5.8-6.1 6.3 6.8
Inflation (%) 4.5-5.5 7.2 4.9
IDR/USD (IDR) 10,000-10,500 9,600 9,300
SBI—3 Months (%) 5.5 5.0 5.0
Crude Oil (USD/brl) 106 108 100
Oil Production (bpd) 870,000 840,000 900,000
Total APBN (IDR tn) 1,240 1,726 1,683
DISCLAIMER
This material is issued by PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, a member of Indonesia Stock Exchanges, represent the opinion of PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, derived its judgment from sources deemed reliable, however, PT Sinarmas Sekuritas and its affiliated cannot guarantee its accuracy and completeness. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas or its affiliates may be involved in transactions contrary to any opinion herein or have positions in the securities recommended herein and may seek or will seek investment banking or other business relationships with the companies in this material. PT Sinarmas Sekuritas, its employees and its affiliates, expressly disclaim any and all liability for representation or warranties, expressed or implied, here in or omission there from or for any loss how so ever arising from any use of this material or its contents or otherwise arising in connection there with. Opinion expressed in this material are our present view and are subject to change without no-tice.
