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99
Lampiran I Analisis Statistik Deskriptif
DY ROA DER EPS
Mean 0.029757 0.140593 2.108611 930.3238 Median 0.027950 0.125800 0.695000 666.5600 Maximum 0.113500 0.715100 8.430000 4393.140 Minimum 0.004800 0.019400 0.150000 28.45000 Std. Dev. 0.016506 0.117758 2.761343 923.3467 Skewness 2.280028 2.032620 1.304560 2.007889 Kurtosis 11.28217 9.597708 2.880069 7.464171 Jarque-Bera 268.1654 180.1678 20.46566 108.1659 Probability 0.000000 0.000000 0.000036 0.000000 Sum 2.142500 10.12270 151.8200 66983.31 Sum Sq. Dev. 0.019344 0.984558 541.3763 60532414 Observations 72 72 72 72
Lampiran II Hasil Uji Stasioneritas
1.
Uji Stasioneritas ROA
Null Hypothesis: ROA has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.973173 0.0423 Test critical values: 1% level -3.525618
5% level -2.902953 10% level -2.588902 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(ROA)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/18/16 Time: 17:07 Sample (adjusted): 2 72
Included observations: 71 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. ROA(-1) -0.255389 0.085898 -2.973173 0.0041 C 0.037178 0.015279 2.433298 0.0176 R-squared 0.113564 Mean dependent var 0.002211 Adjusted R-squared 0.100717 S.D. dependent var 0.086663 S.E. of regression 0.082183 Akaike info criterion -2.131983
Sum squared resid 0.466024 Schwarz criterion -2.068245 Log likelihood 77.68539 Hannan-Quinn criter. -2.106636 F-statistic 8.839761 Durbin-Watson stat 1.966568 Prob(F-statistic) 0.004057
2.
Uji Stasioneritas DER
Null Hypothesis: DER has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -2.032003 0.2728 Test critical values: 1% level -3.525618
5% level -2.902953 10% level -2.588902 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DER)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/18/16 Time: 17:10 Sample (adjusted): 2 72
Included observations: 71 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. DER(-1) -0.109441 0.053859 -2.032003 0.0460 C 0.257527 0.187125 1.376234 0.1732 R-squared 0.056462 Mean dependent var 0.026761 Adjusted R-squared 0.042788 S.D. dependent var 1.280860 S.E. of regression 1.253158 Akaike info criterion 3.316975 Sum squared resid 108.3579 Schwarz criterion 3.380712 Log likelihood -115.7526 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.342321 F-statistic 4.129037 Durbin-Watson stat 2.092304 Prob(F-statistic) 0.046005
3.
Uji Stasioneritas DER
1
stDifference
Null Hypothesis: D(DER) has a unit root Exogenous: Constant101
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -9.132613 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.527045
5% level -2.903566 10% level -2.589227 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DER,2)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/18/16 Time: 17:12 Sample (adjusted): 3 72
Included observations: 70 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. D(DER(-1)) -1.101721 0.120636 -9.132613 0.0000 C 0.028233 0.154551 0.182678 0.8556 R-squared 0.550872 Mean dependent var -0.002143 Adjusted R-squared 0.544268 S.D. dependent var 1.914987 S.E. of regression 1.292769 Akaike info criterion 3.379605 Sum squared resid 113.6451 Schwarz criterion 3.443848 Log likelihood -116.2862 Hannan-Quinn criter. 3.405123 F-statistic 83.40462 Durbin-Watson stat 2.010991 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
4.
Uji Stasioneritas EPS
Null Hypothesis: EPS has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=11)
Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -5.654073 0.0000 Test critical values: 1% level -3.525618
5% level -2.902953 10% level -2.588902 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(EPS)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/18/16 Time: 17:13 Sample (adjusted): 2 72
Included observations: 71 after adjustments
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. EPS(-1) -0.630502 0.111513 -5.654073 0.0000 C 577.2317 146.3454 3.944311 0.0002 R-squared 0.316619 Mean dependent var -10.92239 Adjusted R-squared 0.306715 S.D. dependent var 1041.712 S.E. of regression 867.3687 Akaike info criterion 16.39657 Sum squared resid 51910665 Schwarz criterion 16.46031 Log likelihood -580.0782 Hannan-Quinn criter. 16.42192 F-statistic 31.96855 Durbin-Watson stat 2.038097 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000000
5.
Uji Stasioneritas Dividend Yield
Null Hypothesis: DY has a unit root Exogenous: Constant
Lag Length: 0 (Automatic based on SIC, MAXLAG=11)
t-Statistic Prob.* Augmented Dickey-Fuller test statistic -4.910801 0.0001 Test critical values: 1% level -3.525618
5% level -2.902953 10% level -2.588902 *MacKinnon (1996) one-sided p-values.
Augmented Dickey-Fuller Test Equation Dependent Variable: D(DY)
Method: Least Squares Date: 01/18/16 Time: 17:14 Sample (adjusted): 2 72
Included observations: 71 after adjustments
103
DY(-1) -0.521010 0.106095 -4.910801 0.0000 C 0.015146 0.003627 4.175527 0.0001 R-squared 0.258989 Mean dependent var -0.000500 Adjusted R-squared 0.248249 S.D. dependent var 0.016851 S.E. of regression 0.014610 Akaike info criterion -5.586403 Sum squared resid 0.014729 Schwarz criterion -5.522666 Log likelihood 200.3173 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.561057 F-statistic 24.11597 Durbin-Watson stat 2.051246 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000006
Lampiran III Analisis Regresi Data Panel
1.
Common Effect
Dependent Variable: DY Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/05/16 Time: 14:28 Sample: 2011 2014
Periods included: 4
Cross-sections included: 18
Total panel (balanced) observations: 72
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. ROA 0.000465 0.017965 0.025888 0.9794 DER -0.001062 0.000766 -1.385873 0.1703 EPS 5.05E-06 2.07E-06 2.434708 0.0175 C 0.027235 0.004396 6.195436 0.0000 R-squared 0.131431 Mean dependent var 0.029757 Adjusted R-squared 0.093112 S.D. dependent var 0.016506 S.E. of regression 0.015719 Akaike info criterion -5.413946 Sum squared resid 0.016802 Schwarz criterion -5.287465 Log likelihood 198.9021 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.363594 F-statistic 3.429911 Durbin-Watson stat 0.679553 Prob(F-statistic) 0.021778
2.
Fixed Effect
Dependent Variable: DY? Method: Pooled Least Squares Date: 01/05/16 Time: 14:29 Sample: 2011 2014Cross-sections included: 18
Total pool (balanced) observations: 72
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.041436 0.011224 3.691615 0.0005 ROA 0.005422 0.030004 0.180705 0.0379 DER -0.004177 0.004756 -0.878229 0.3839 EPS -3.91E-06 2.73E-06 -1.428102 0.0158 Fixed Effects (Cross)
_AALI--C 0.001688 _ADRO--C -0.006476 _ASII--C -0.003137 _BBCA--C 0.006334 _BBNI--C 0.014478 _BBRI--C 0.020713 _BMRI--C 0.014484 _CPIN--C -0.026706 _GGRM--C -0.014171 _INDF--C -0.005752 _INTP--C -0.002819 _ITMG--C 0.042353 _KLBF--C -0.023507 _LSIP--C -0.009576 _PTBA--C 0.005246 _SMGR--C -0.011486 _UNTR--C 0.007120 _UNVR--C -0.008785 Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.653797 Mean dependent var 0.029757 Adjusted R-squared 0.518030 S.D. dependent var 0.016506 S.E. of regression 0.011459 Akaike info criterion -5.861544 Sum squared resid 0.006697 Schwarz criterion -5.197516 Log likelihood 232.0156 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.597193 F-statistic 4.815611 Durbin-Watson stat 1.826077 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003
3.
Random Effect
Dependent Variable: DY?Method: Pooled EGLS (Cross-section random effects) Date: 01/05/16 Time: 14:32
Sample: 2011 2014 Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 18
Total pool (balanced) observations: 72
105
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.032575 0.005329 6.112624 0.0000 ROA -0.001486 0.021098 -0.070438 0.9441 DER -0.001469 0.001073 -1.368804 0.1756 EPS 5.25E-07 2.18E-06 0.240424 0.8107 Random Effects (Cross)
_AALI—C 0.003287 _ADRO—C -0.000649 _ASII—C -0.002033 _BBCA—C -0.004770 _BBNI—C 0.002878 _BBRI—C 0.004505 _BMRI—C 0.000297 _CPIN—C -0.014392 _GGRM—C -0.013051 _INDF—C -0.000328 _INTP—C 0.001022 _ITMG—C 0.029899 _KLBF—C -0.011041 _LSIP—C -0.000710 _PTBA—C 0.007083 _SMGR—C -0.004680 _UNTR—C 0.006520 _UNVR—C -0.003835 Effects Specification S.D. Rho Cross-section random 0.010283 0.4460 Idiosyncratic random 0.011459 0.5540 Weighted Statistics
R-squared 0.029717 Mean dependent var 0.014484 Adjusted R-squared -0.013090 S.D. dependent var 0.011850 S.E. of regression 0.011928 Sum squared resid 0.009674 F-statistic 0.694217 Durbin-Watson stat 1.158550 Prob(F-statistic) 0.558751
Unweighted Statistics
R-squared 0.068747 Mean dependent var 0.029757 Sum squared resid 0.018014 Durbin-Watson stat 0.622176
Lampiran IV Uji Chow
Redundant Fixed Effects Tests Pool: POOL
Test cross-section fixed effects
Effects Test Statistic d.f. Prob. Cross-section F 4.526515 (17,51) 0.0000 Cross-section Chi-square 66.227032 17 0.0000
Cross-section fixed effects test equation: Dependent Variable: DY?
Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/05/16 Time: 14:33 Sample: 2011 2014
Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 18
Total pool (balanced) observations: 72
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. ROA? 0.000465 0.017965 0.025888 0.9794 DER? -0.001062 0.000766 -1.385873 0.1703 EPS? 5.05E-06 2.07E-06 2.434708 0.0175 C 0.027235 0.004396 6.195436 0.0000 R-squared 0.131431 Mean dependent var 0.029757 Adjusted R-squared 0.093112 S.D. dependent var 0.016506 S.E. of regression 0.015719 Akaike info criterion -5.413946 Sum squared resid 0.016802 Schwarz criterion -5.287465 Log likelihood 198.9021 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.363594 F-statistic 3.429911 Durbin-Watson stat 0.679553 Prob(F-statistic) 0.021778
Lampiran V Uji Hausman
Correlated Random Effects - Hausman Test Pool: POOL
Test cross-section random effects
Test Summary Statistic Chi-Sq. Chi-Sq. d.f. Prob. Cross-section random 8.672355 3 0.0340 Cross-section random effects test comparisons:
Variable Fixed Random Var(Diff.) Prob. ROA? 0.005422 -0.001486 0.000455 0.7461 DER? -0.004177 -0.001469 0.000021 0.5589 EPS? -0.000004 0.000001 0.000000 0.0071 Cross-section random effects test equation:
Dependent Variable: DY? Method: Panel Least Squares Date: 01/05/16 Time: 14:33 Sample: 2011 2014
107
Included observations: 4 Cross-sections included: 18
Total pool (balanced) observations: 72
Variable Coefficient Std. Error t-Statistic Prob. C 0.041436 0.011224 3.691615 0.0005 ROA? 0.005422 0.030004 0.180705 0.0379 DER? -0.004177 0.004756 -0.878229 0.3839 EPS? -3.91E-06 2.73E-06 -1.428102 0.0158
Effects Specification Cross-section fixed (dummy variables)
R-squared 0.653797 Mean dependent var 0.029757 Adjusted R-squared 0.518030 S.D. dependent var 0.016506 S.E. of regression 0.011459 Akaike info criterion -5.861544 Sum squared resid 0.006697 Schwarz criterion -5.197516 Log likelihood 232.0156 Hannan-Quinn criter. -5.597193 F-statistic 4.815611 Durbin-Watson stat 1.826077 Prob(F-statistic) 0.000003
Lampiran VI Tabel Sampel Perusahaan LQ45
No
Kode
Nama Perusahaan
1
AALI
Astra Argo Lestari Tbk.
2
ADRO
Adaro Energy Tbk.
3
ASII
Astra International Tbk.
4
BBCA
Bank Central Asia Tbk.
5
BBNI
Bank Negara Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
6
BBRI
Bank Rakyat Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
7
BMRI
Bank Mandiri (Persero) Tbk.
8
CPIN
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia Tbk.
9
GGRM
Gudang Garam Tbk.
10
INDF
Indofood Sukses Makmur Tbk.
11
INTP
Indocement Tunggal Prakasa Tbk.
12
ITMG
Indo Tambangraya Megah Tbk.
13
KLBF
Kalbe Farma Tbk.
14
LSIP
PP London Sumatra Tbk.
15
PTBA
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam (Persero) Tbk.
16
SMGR
Semen Indonesia (Persero) Tbk.
17
UNTR
United Tractors Tbk.
Lampiran VII Tabel Dividend Yield Perusahaan LQ45 Selama 4 Tahun
No