01.0 Environmental Threats.ppt 12033KB Mar 29 2010 05:00:20 AM

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1 – Environmental Threats

1 – Environmental Threats

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Environmental threats

The Sustainability Problem,

Environmental Impact of Economic

Activities, The Nature of Environmental

Threats, Climate Change

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The Sustainability Problem,

Environmental Impact of Economic

Activities, The Nature of Environmental

Threats, Climate Change

Environment and

Climate

1.1 Environment and Climate

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• The Sustainability Problem

• The Nature of Environmental Threats

• Current Global Environmental Threats

• The Challenge of Climate Change

Contents

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The Sustainability Problem (1)

Development involves a progressive

transformation of economy and

society. A development path that is sustainable in a physical sense could theoretically be pursued even in a rigid social and political setting. But

physical sustainability cannot be

secured unless development policies pay attention to such considerations as changes in access to resources and in the distribution of costs and

benefits. Even the narrow notion of physical sustainability implies a

concern for social equity between

generations, a concern that must

Economic sustainability

Environmental sustainability

Social sustainability

WCED Our Common Future

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The Sustainability Problem (2)

Planet Profit People Decisions inte rdep ende nce interdependence inte_rd ep en de nc_e Sustainability: sectoral aspects Sustainability: sectoral aspects

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The Sustainability Problem (2)

Sustainability: temporal aspects

2008 2009 2025 …??

…Sustainable

development is

development that

meets the needs of

the present without

compromising the

ability of future

generations to meet

their own needs

…

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We want to sustain ‘people, planet, profit’ &

We want economic growth

But…

There are:

• Environmental limits to growth • Social limits to growth

The Sustainability Problem (3)

Limits to economic growth??

Question for Discussion

…

Question for Discussion

…

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The Sustainability Problem (4)

Whatever the outcomes of our discussion might be,

finding an optimal balance between ‘people, planet,

profit’ is a complex task.

In this lecture, we pay attention to the

planet-profit

interdependence, with special concern for the

‘planet’:

a. Environmental impact of economic activity

b. Characterisation of environmental threats

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Environmental Impact of Economic Activity (1)

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Environmental Impact of Economic Activity (2)

P : Increasing population

A : Affluence  economic growth in developed and developing

countries (units: $, GDP/capita, € etc.)

T : Technology  material use, resource consumption and waste

generation per unit production (units: mass)

Population of the world, 1950-2050

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…’Technology’ imposes threats on the environment by

inserting and extracting materials:

• Pollution to…

_{Fresh Air} Fresh Water

_Soil

• Exhaustion of Natural Capital from…

_Air

Water

_Soil

The Nature of Environmental Threats (1)

Pollution

Natural Capital

interdependence

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• Pollution problems depend on:

• Environmental impact potential of materials • Spatial scale of impact

• Damage potential (severity of hazards) • Degree of exposure

• Remediation and reversibility time • Quantity of materials used (throughput)

• Exhaustion problems depend on: • Current use of natural capital & • Future availability

The Nature of Environmental Threats (2)

throughput hazard

High leve

l of conce rn

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Environmental threats occur at different scales:

• Global threats

• Regional threats

• Local threats

The Nature of Environmental Threats (3)

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 _{Climate Change}  Ozone Depletion

 _{Exhaustion of Natural Resources}  Sea level rise

 _{Desertification}  Erosion

 _{Loss of biodiversity}

 Destruction natural habitats

 _Etc.

Current Environmental Threats

Global, regional and local

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The severe characteristics of Climate Change:

• Global environmental threat

• Attributable to economic activities

• Caused by enhanced Greenhouse Gas Emissions that accumulate in the atmosphere

And…the large variety and scale of impact categories:

• Human health • Ecosystems • Sea level rise

• Socio-economic equity

The Challenge of Climate Change (1)

A

B

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And…the future time scale of Climate Change impacts

(emissions of today are the problems of tomorrow)

• Climate Change is a serious

threat

to sustainability

• Climate Change is a big

challenge

to our society

• We need to act

TODAY

The Challenge of Climate Change (2)

C

A + B ++ C

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Global Environmental

Threats

Climate Change, Ozone

Depletion, Exhaustion of Natural

Resources

1.2 Global Environmental Threats

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• Current Global Environmental Threats

• Causes of Global Threats

• Impacts of Global Threats

• Economic Impacts of Global Warming on Developing

Countries

• Global Threats and Environmental Policy

Contents

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

Climate Change



Ozone Depletion



Exhaustion of Natural Resources:

• Fossil Fuels (non renewable energy resources) • Fresh Water

• Minerals: Global Copper (example)

Current Global Environmental Threats

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Climate Change, a Very Global Issue!

“We…are confronting a planetary emergency - a threat to the survival of our civilization that is gathering ominous and destructive potential…But there is hopeful news as well: we have the ability to solve this crisis and avoid the worst - though not all - of its consequences, if we act boldly, decisively and quickly.”

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• Temperature changes worldwide, since 1970:

Signals of Global Warming

Changes in near surface temperature 1970-2004

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Global Warming and the Future

Prospective surface warming for different scenarios in the absence of climate change

• “Additional warming is already in the pipeline due to past and present emissions” (Stern 2006)

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Causes of Climate Change (4)

The greenhouse effect. A “thicker” blanket of greenhouse gases traps more infrared radition and raises

Greenhouse Gases:

• Carbon Dioxide

• Methane

• Nitrous Oxide

• ChloroFluorCarbons

• Hydrochloro-fluorocarbons • Hydrofluorocarbons

• Halons

• Carbon tetrachloride

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Impacts of Climate Change

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Economic Impacts of Global Warming on

Developing Countries (1)

The vulnerability to global warming depends upon three factors:

Factors determining the vulnerability to climate change.

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Economic Impacts of Global Warming on

• There is a correlation between global warming and economic development

• Countries differ in their vulnerabiliy to economic impacts of global warming and climate change

• The economic impacts of global warming are not evenly distributed over rich and poor countries (Mendelsohn et al. 2006)

• Economic impacts of global warming in developing countries relate to their current climate, geographic exposure and

dependency on climate sensitive economic sectors (e.g. agriculture)

 “impacts are proportionally greater and the ability to adapt

smaller” (Stern, 2006)

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Economic Impacts of Global Warming on

Economic Welfare

Temperature

Cooler Areas Warmer/tropical Regions

Adapted from Mendelsohn et al. 2006)

• In cooler regions: less severe winters, increased food production • In warmer regions: increased flooding, heat waves and droughts,

increased pests, crop diseases and weeds (Miller 2003)

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Ozone Depletion (1)

1979 1988 2000 2002

Thinning of ozone layer that keeps most of sun’s harmful ultraviolet (UV) radiation from reaching the earth’s surface

The changes in size of the Ozonehole above Antartica during 1979 until 2002

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Ozone Depletion (2)

Characteristics of Ozone depletion problem:

• Ozone thinning varies with altitude, location and season

• Seasonal variation of ‘ozone thinning’, due to polar processes

• In 2000, largest seasonal ozone thinning ozone hole above

Antartica, which covered an area of 3 times the USA (

Miller, 2004)

• Recovering of Ozone layer will take 50-100 years (

Miller, 2004)

• Ozone depletion is expected to be worst during 2010 and 2019

(

NASA’Goddard Institute for Space Studies in Miller, 2004

)

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• The mechanism of ozone (O₃) depletion by ChloroFluoroCarbons (CFCs)

• Example: Reactions of CCl₃F (CFC species)

Causes of Ozone Depletion

Chlori ne (Cl

) is cat

alyst of

depleti

on pro cess

CCl₃F + UV  Cl + CCl₂F Cl + O₃ ClO + O₂

ClO + O  CL + O₂

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_{Human Health: Sunburn, Eye cataracts, skin cancer} _{Food: Reduced yields, seafood supplies}

_{Forests: Decreased forest productivity}

_{Wildlife: Eye cataracts, reduced population of phytoplankton} _{Air pollution: photochemical smog}

_{Materials: degradation of buildings (acid deposition), outdoor}

paints and plastics

_{Global warming: accelerated warming because of lower CO2}

uptake by phytoplankton and CFCs as GHGs

(Miller, 2003)

Impacts of Ozone Depletion

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• Exhaustion depends on how current use affects future availability (Perman et al. 2003)

• Natural Resource Depletion: Exhaustion of Non-Renewable Resources

• Fossil Fuels • Fresh Water

Exhaustion of Natural Resources (1)

Natural Resources

Flow Resources: No link between current use and future availability Examples: Wind, Solar, Wave power

Stock Resources: Level of current use does affect future availability

Renewable Resources: potential of natural reproduction (crops etc.)

Non-Renewable Resources: fossil fuels, minerals, fresh water

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Exhaustion of Natural Resources (2)

• Fossil fuels: Consumption of natural gas and coal for electricity generation will increase in the near future

World Electricity Generation by Fuel for 2004 and 2030

Minerals: significant extractions of Copper (example). However, recycling is possible, which may delay the exhaustion process

Global Copper cycle . The units are Gg Cu/year;

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• Fresh Water

• Fresh water is not evenly distributed:

• geographically • in time

• in quality • politically

Exhaustion of Natural Resources (3)

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Fossil fuels: increasing energy demand, in particular from developing countries

Causes of

Exhaustion of Natural Resources (1)

Average Annual Growth in Energy Consumption by region and end-use sector, 2004- 2030

Energy Use in Developing Countries (not participating in Organization for Economic Cooperation and

Development) from 2004- 2030

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Minerals: high demand from developed and developing countries, in particular Asia

Causes

of Exhaustion of Natural Resources (2)

Copper entering use in 9 world regions in 1994.

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Fresh Water: pollution and inefficient use

 _{Pollution of fresh water resources}  _{Agricultural use of water:}

 _{17% of cropland irrigated, producing 1/3 of world food supply, using ±}

70% of water for human use

 _{< 50% of water reaches the crops - rest (leaking from pipes/canals,}

evaporating) re-enters hydrological cycle, degraded by pesticides, fertilizers, .. causing surface-/groundwater pollution while wasting chemicals

 _{Potable water is used for activities not requiring potable water quality}  _{5 – 70% distribution losses – loss of water, loss of chemicals,}

loss of energy

 _Inefficient _{industrial use of water: Processes often}

obsolete, high water to product ratio, large amounts of wastewater disposal

Causes of

Exhaustion of Natural Resources (3)

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• Fossil fuels: energy crises, increased CO2 emissions because of increased coal consumption; scarcity may increase the cost

effectiveness of renewable energy options (solar, wind, wave power) • Minerals: increasing scarcity, rising prices for commodities. Use of

secondary copper from recycling becomes more attractive. • Water:

 _{1.2 billion lack potable water}

 _{because of pollution of nearby sources, raw water from ever}

larger distances

 _{2.3 billion suffer from diseases linked to water, causing}

some 12 million deaths – mostly children - a year

 _{> 50% of world’s major rivers endanger human health and}

poison surrounding ecosystems

Impacts of Exhaustion of Natural Resources

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Global Threats and Environmental Policy (1)

UN Breakthrough on climate change reached in Bali; Indonesian Environment Minister and President of the conference, Rachmat Witoelar said: “We now have a Bali roadmap, we have an agenda and we have a deadline.” “But we also have a huge task ahead of us and time to reach agreement is extremely short, so we need to move quickly,”

There is a water crisis, but it is a crisis of management resulting from bad institutions, bad governance, bad incentives, and bad allocation of resources (World Water

Vision, 2000)

Our atmosphere can’t tell the difference between

emissions from an Asian factory, the exhaust from a North American SUV, or deforestation in South America or

Africa.” UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon

“the time to act is now”

UN Secretary-General Ban Ki-Moon “the mora

l challenge of our generation,” UN Secret

ary-General Ban

Ki-Moon

Business is ready to move into the low-emissions era, but needs the appropriate policy framework from governments to do so,” UNFCCC Executive Secretary Yvo de Boer

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Global threats

require

global solutions !!

Global Threats and Environmental Policy (2)

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Regional Environmental

Threats

Acidification, Water Pollution, Soil

Degradation and Desertification

1.3 Regional Environmental Threats

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• Characteristics of Regional Environmental Threats

• Regional Threats

• Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion

• Soil Degradation and Desertification

• Policy Options

Contents

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Characteristics of Regional Environmental Threats

Examples of Regional threats:



Acidification



Desertification



Erosion



Destruction of natural

habitats

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Spatial scale of impact: the distance between ‘cause’ (emission) and ‘effect’ (damage);

Same substance can be local, regional or even global pollutant • Examples:

_{Air: particulate matter, volatile organic compounds (local);}

sulfur and nitrogen oxides, ozone (local and regional)

Water and soil: toxic substances (leaching of heavy metals from landfills to soil (local impact) and ground- and surface water (regional impact)

• Regional (or global!) pollutants can have local effects

• Some local emissions can have regional or even global effects

Spatial Characteristics of Environmental Threats

N.B.!

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Regional Threats from Air Pollutants (1)

• Acidification from acid deposition

 _{Slower growth, injury and death of forests}  _{Health effects}

 _{Lower fish rates in lakes}  _{Deterioration of buildings}  _{Leaching of toxic metals}

from water pipes

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Regional Threats from Air Pollutants (2)

• Air pollutants: nitrogen oxides (NO_x), sulfur dioxide (SO₂):

transported far away from emission points to place of deposition

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Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion

(1)

• Destruction of water ecosystems and fish habitats

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Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion

(2)

Water Pollution

Groundwater Surface water

Lakes, rivers, oceans

Point sources Non-point sources Leaching from soils

E.g.Agriculture, urban stormwater runoff

Receiving waters

Sources

E.g. Industrial

discharges in rivers E.g. Landfills

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Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion

(3)

• Often, environmental interventions are connected

• Example: deforestation, soil

depletion and water contamination

Downstream sequence of events following the clearcutting of a slope

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Nature of Water Resource Pollution and Exhaustion

(4): Consequences

• Example Africa: Fresh water shortage and socio-economic impacts

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Soil Degradation and Desertification

• Pressure on food production results in soil degradation etc. • ongoing deforestation

• wind/water erosion • overuse of

agricultural chemicals

• poor irrigation practices (salt build-up/water logging)

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• Industrial emissions of

NO_x and SO₂

from burning fossil

fuels

How is Business Involved (1)

• Inefficient water use during production processes:

• Too high water-to-product ratio

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How is Business Involved (2)

Raw materials Gaseous waste Products Solid waste Liquid waste Energy

The industrial

mass and energy

balance

Heat

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• depletion of resources - mining, clean water/air/soil, soil minerals

• dilution of resources - metals, organics, nutrients,

• pollution of resources - water/air/soil

• damage to resources - chemicals into stratosphere • Waste generation (Eco-management Guide, 1998):

 _{producing environment unfriendly products (dyes, synthetic fibres,}

paints and plastics - chemical industry) and by producing most of the EU’s hazardous waste (sludge containing heavy metals - metal

platers)

 concentrating on cures and treatments for waste (“end of pipe” solutions) rather than preventing its creation.

 _{Not investigating of methods for recycling and re-use of waste,}

How is Business Involved (3)

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Local Environmental

Threats

Air Pollution, Toxic Substances,

Solid Waste, Policy Options

1.4 Local Environmental Threats

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• Local Threats



Air pollution



Toxic Substances



Depletion of Fresh Water Resources

• Aesthetic Pollution

• Threats from Solid Waste

Contents

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What are Local and Regional Environmental

Threats (1)

• Local Threats:



Local pollution of water, air and soil



Erosion



Soil pollution

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Local Threats from Air Pollutants

Smog from local traffic

Health damages from particulate matter Indoor air pollution

Respiratory diseases

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Local Threats from Toxic Substances

• Leaching from landfills into groundwater zone:

http://www.eia.doe.gov

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Depletion of Fresh Water Resources

No replenishment of groundwater sources



depletion of renewable water

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Aesthetic Pollution

• Visibility: smog

• Deterioration of materials in buildings, statues etc.

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• Solid waste issues:

 _{Materials composition (hazard potential, organic, inorganic, heavy}

metals, pesticides etc.)

 _{Materials amount}

 _{Treatment method (storage, incineration and recycling potential)}

Threats from Solid Waste (1)

? +

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• Materials composition of solid waste determines potential

for adequate treatment and recycling

• Threats of hazardous materials in solid waste:

• Soil degradation

• Leaching from landfills to watersaturated regions

• Toxic emissions from incineration

• Storage of (hazardous) solid waste: Future generations

bear the risks and costs of current solid waste production

= unsustainable!

• Recycling often requires lots of energy and water

Threats from Solid Waste (2)

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Policy Options (1)

 _{Reduction of pollutants at source instead of end-of-pipe (prevent}

hazardous substances and reduce amount of waste entering solid waste incineration)

 _{Solve the ‘transboundary’ problem of who is responsible for}

regional consequences of local emissions;  emission

allowances and trading

 _{Equal distribution of water resources}

 _{Efficient water use in agriculture and industrial production}

processes

 _{Pollution standards, enforcement of zero discharges, trading of}

effluent allowances

Air

Water

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

Bury in landfills



Burn in municipal incinerators



Transport to other countries (= non-solution)

Or…Prevent: create low waste society:



Consume less



Redesign products and manufacturing processes

(Eco-design, eco-efficiency, cleaner production)



Reduce unnecessary packaging



Adopt trash taxes or ‘pay-as-you-throw’ system

Policy options for Solid Waste