Beijing000515.ppt 8435KB Jun 23 2011 01:01:30 PM

(1)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

More Wheels of Reincarnation

Or A New PC+, www+ Era?

Infinite processing, memory,

and bandwidth

@ zero cost

Gordon Bell

(2)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

The Highly Probable Future c2025

83 items from J. Coates, Futurist, Vol. 84, 1994



8.4 B, english speaking, personally tagged & identified, prosthetic assisted

and/or mutant, tense people who have access & control of their medical

records



Everything will be smart, responsive to environment.

–

Sensing of everything… challenge for science & engineering!

–

Fast broadband network

–

Smart appliances & AI

–

Tele-all: shop, vote, meet, work, etc.

–

Robots do everything,

but there may be conflict with labor…



A “managed”, physical and man-made world

–

Reliable weather reports

–

“Many natural disasters e.g. floods, earthquakes, will be mitigated, controlled or

prevented”

(3)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(4)

PC+

(5)

BIO INTELLIGENCE AGE

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TIME (year)

2000 BC

2000 BC 00 15001500 18001800 19001900 2000 AD2000 AD

CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE

AGRICULTURAL

INDUSTRIAL

BIOINTELLIGENCE

INFORMATION

(6)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

PC At An Inflection Point

PCs

(7)

The Dawn Of The PC-Plus Era,

Not

The Post-PC Era…

devices aggregate via PCs!!!

Consumer

PCs

TV/AV

Mobile

Companions

Household

Management

Communications

Automation

& Security

(8)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

PCTV a.k.a. MilliBill

g

Using PCs to drive large screens

e.g. tv sets, Plasma Panels

(9)

Home

CATV

Analog/digital cable distribution

PC broadcasts

are mixed into

home CATV in

analog and/or

MPEG digital

Ethernet Home network

Video

captur

e

“milliBill”

Basic ideas:

1. PC records or

plays thru video

cable

channels.

2. PC “broadcasts”

art images,

webcams,

presentations,

videos, DVDs,

etc.

3. Ethernet not

cable?

Settop

box

Another big bang?

(10)

Images from:

http://www.nextmonet.com

A gallery that sells art on line

Images from:

(11)

(12)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Voice to WEB

Bridge

Web Server

The

Web

DataBase

PSTN

(13)

PC will prevail for the next decade

as the dominant platform…

its COTS or COTS’ AND www!



Moore’s Law increases performance; and

alternatively reduces prices



PC server clusters with low cost OS beat

proprietary switches, smPs, and DSMs



Home entertainment & control …

–

Very large disks (1TB by 2005)

to “store everything” personal

–

Screens to enhance use



Lack of last mile bandwidth to move pictures, data,

and interact favors home mainframes aka PCs

(14)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

SNAP

… c1995

S

calable

N

etwork

A

nd

P

latforms

A View of Computing in 2000+

We all missed the impact of WWW!

Gordon Bell

Network

Jim Gray

(15)

How Will Future Computers Be Built?

Thesis: SNAP: Scalable Networks and Platforms

•

Upsize from desktop to world-scale computer

•

based on a few standard components

Because:

•

Moore’s law:

exponential progress

•

Standardization & Commoditization

•

Stratification and competition

When: Sooner than you think!

•

Massive standardization gives massive use

•

Economic forces are enormous

(16)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Volume drives simple,

cost to standard

platforms

MPPs

1-4 processor mP

(17)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

The economics of

(18)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

In

no

va

tio

n

The Virtuous Economic Cycle

drives the PC industry… & Beowulf

Vo

lu

m

e

Com

peti

tion

Standards

Util

ity/v

alu

e

(19)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

The UNIX Trap:

creating the myth of “open systems”

“Standard” has meant different!

VendorIX platforms have created the “downsizing”

market that provides an apparent, cost reduction

Hardware platform vendors lock-in users with servers of

proprietary UNIX dialects and unique chips

to maintain margins for chip and UNIX development

VendorIX R & D costs $1.4 - $2 billion

Implied selling price $10 - 14 billion for $1.4 billion,

or a sales tax of 1 million UNIX units of $10,000

Users hostage with client-server, database, and apps

An implicit

or unconscious

cartel has formed that

(20)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(21)

Architecture---Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Computing

SNAP

built

entirely

from PCs

Area Networks

Wide & Local

for: terminal,

PC, workstation,

& servers

Centralized

& departmental

uni- & mP servers

(UNIX & NT)

Legacy

mainframes &

minicomputers

servers & terms

Wide-area

global

network

Legacy

mainframe &

minicomputer

servers & terminals

Centralized

& departmental

servers buit from

PCs

scalable computers

built from PCs

TC=TV+PC

home ...

(CATV or ATM

or satellite)

???

Portables

(22)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(23)

In a decade we can/will have:

 more powerful personal computers

– _{processing 10-100x;}multiprocessors-on-a-chip – _{4x resolution (2K x 2K) displays to impact paper} – _{Large, wall-sized and watch-sized displays}

– _{low cost, storage of one terabyte for personal use}

 adequate networking? PCs now operate at 1 Gbps

– _{ubiquitous access = today’s fast LANs} – _{Competitive wireless networking}

 _{One chip, networked platforms e.g. light bulbs,}

cameras everywhere

_, & managed by PCs!

 Some well-defined platforms that compete with the PC for mind (time) and market share

watch, pocket, body implant, home

(24)

PC+

High Performance Computing

(25)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(26)

PC+

(27)

PC+

(28)

PC+

(29)

Dead Supercomputer Society

 _ACRI  _Alliant

 _{American Supercomputer}  _Ametek

 _{Applied Dynamics}  _Astronautics  _BBN

 CDC  _Convex

 _{Cray Computer}  _{Cray Research}  _{Culler-Harris}  _{Culler Scientific}  _Cydrome

 _{Dana/Ardent/Stellar/Stardent}  _Denelcor

 _Elexsi

 _{ETA Systems}

 _{Evans and Sutherland Computer}  _{Floating Point Systems}

 _{Galaxy YH-1}

 _{Goodyear Aerospace MPP}  _{Gould NPL}

 _Guiltech

 _{Intel Scientific Computers}  _{International Parallel Machines}  _{Kendall Square Research}  _{Key Computer Laboratories}  _MasPar  _Meiko  _Multiflow  _Myrias  _Numerix  _Prisma  _Tera

 _{Thinking Machines}  _Saxpy

 _{Scientific Computer Systems (SCS)}  _{Soviet Supercomputers}

 _Supertek

 _{Supercomputer Systems}  _Suprenum

(30)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(31)

PC+

0.0001

0.001

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

1985

1990

1995

2000

2005

2010

Bell Prize and

Future Peak

Tflops (t)

Petaflops

study

target

NEC

XMP

NCube

CM2

(32)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Top 10 tpc-c

Top two Compaq systems are:

1.1 & 1.5X faster than IBM SPs;

1/3 price of IBM

1/5 price of SUN

(33)

(34)

(35)

Contributions of Beowulf



An experiment in parallel computing systems



Established vision low cost high end computing



Demonstrated effectiveness of PC clusters for some (not all)

classes of applications



Provided networking software



Provided cluster management tools



Conveyed findings to broad community



Tutorials and the book



GB: Provided design standard to rally community!



Standards beget: books, trained people, software … virtuous cycle

(36)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

High performance

architecture/program timeline

1950 .

1960 .

1970 .

1980 .

1990 .

2000

Vtubes Trans. MSI(mini) Micro RISC nMicr

Sequential programming---->---(single execution stream)

<SIMD

Parallelization---Parallel programs aka Cluster Computing <---multicomputers <--MPP

era---ultracomputers 10X in size & price! 10x MPP

“in situ” resources 100x in //sm NOW VLSCC

(37)

PC+

Computer types

Netwrked

Supers…

GRID

Legion

Condor

Beowulf

NT clusters

VPPuni

T3E

SP2

(mP)

NOW

NEC mP

SGI DSM

clusters &

SGI DSM

NEC super

Cray X…T

(all mPv)

Mainframes

Multis

WSs PCs

---

Connectivity---WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM

(38)

Technical computer types

Netwrked

Supers…

GRID

Legion

Condor

Beowulf

VPPuni

SP2

(mP)

NOW

NEC mP

T series

SGI DSM

clusters &

SGI DSM

NEC super

Cray X…T

(all mPv)

Mainframes

Multis

WSs PCs

WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM

(39)

Technical computer types

Netwrked

Supers…

GRID

Legion

Condor

Beowulf

VPPuni

SP2

(mP)

NOW

NEC mP

T series

SGI DSM

clusters &

SGI DSM

NEC super

Cray X…T

(all mPv)

Mainframes

Multis

WSs PCs

WAN/LAN SAN DSM SM

m

ic

ro

s

v

e

ct

o

r

Vectorize

Parallellelize

MPI, Linda, PVM,

Cactus, ???

distributed function

(40)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(41)

PC+

Beyond Moore’s Law …>10 yrs



Just FCB

(faster, cheaper, better)…

COTS will soon mean consumer off the shelf



Moore’s Law and technology progress likely to continue for another

decade for:

processing & memory,

storage, LANs, & WANs are really evolving



System-on-a chip of interesting sizes will emerge to create 0 cost

systems



No DNA, molecular, or quantum computers, or new stores



Any displacement technology is unlikely

… Carver Mead’s Law c1980

A technology takes 11 years to get established

(42)

High Performance Computing



Supers we knew are Japanese…

we have to stay the course. We actually may win!



PC will continue to erode capacity need



Scalability & COTS are in… but you have to roll your own else pay VendorIX

taxes



Beowulf is $14K/TB ( 6 x 4 x 40 GB)



IBM 4000R 1 rack: 2x42 500Mhz processors, 84 GB, 84 disks (3TB @36GB/disk)

$420K … still cheaper than the “big buys”



$10-20K/node for special purpose vs

$2K for a MAC



EMC, IBM at $1 million/TB; vs $14K

(43)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(44)

PC+

Computer ops/sec x word length / $

y = 1E-248e0.2918x

1.E-06 1.E-03 1.E+00 1.E+03 1.E+06 1.E+09

1880 1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 .=1.565^(t-1959.4)

doubles every 7.5

(45)

PC+

0.01

0.1

1

10

100

1000

10000

19

86

19

88

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94

19

96

P

e

rf

o

rm

a

n

c

e

i

n

M

f

o

p

/s

Micros

Supers

8087 80287 688180387 R2000 i860 RS6000/540Alpha RS6000/590Alpha Cray 1S Cray X-MP

Cray 2 Cray Y-MP Cray C90

Cray T90

19

98

Growth of microprocessor

performance

(46)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Albert Yu predictions ‘96

When

2000

2006

Clock (MHz)

900

4000

4.4x

MTransistors

40

350

8.75x

Mops

2400

20,000

8.3x

(47)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Processor Limit: DRAM Gap

µProc

60%/yr

.

DRAM

7%/yr..

1

10

100

1000

1

9

8

0

1

9

8

1

9

8

3

1

9

8

4

1

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6

1

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1

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1

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2

0

DRAM CPU

1

9

8

2

Processor-Memory

Performance Gap:

(grows 50% / year)

P

er

fo

rm

an

ce

•

Alpha 21264 full cache miss / instructions executed:

180 ns/1.7 ns =108 clks x 4 or 432 instructions

•

Caches in Pentium Pro: 64% area, 88% transistors

*Taken from Patterson-Keeton Talk to SigMod

(48)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(49)

PC+

(50)

PC+

Exponential change of 10X per

decade causes real turmoil!

100000

10000

1000

100

$K 10

1

0.1

0.01

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

(51)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

VAX Planning Model 1975:

I didn’t believe it



The model was very good

–

1978 timeshared $250K VAXen

cost about $8K in 1997!



Costs declined > 20%

–

users got lots more memory than I predicted



Single user systems didn’t come down as fast,

unless you consider PDAs

(52)

System-on-a-chip alternatives

FPGA

Sea of un-committed

gate arrays

Xylinx,

Altera

Compile

a system

Unique processor for

every app

Tensillica

Systolic |

array

Many pipelined or

parallel processors

DSP |

VLIW

Special purpose

processors

TI

Pc & Mp.

ASICS

Gen. Purpose cores.

Specialized by I/O, etc.

Intel,

Lucent, IBM

Universal

(53)

Cradle: Universal Microsystem

trading Verilog & hardware for C/C++



Single part for all apps



Programming @ run time via FPGA & ROM



5 quad mPs at 3 Gflops/quad = 15 Glops



Single shared memory space, caches



Programmable periphery including:

1 GB/s; 2.5 Gips

PCI, 100 baseT, firewire



$4 per flops; 150 mW/Gflops

(54)

M S P M S P M S P M E M O R Y

M S P M S P M S P M S P M E M O R Y

C L O C K S , D E B U G

M S P M S P M S P M S P M E M O R Y D R A M

C O N T R O L M

S P

D R A M

P R O G I / O P R O G I / O PR

O G I/ O P R O G I/ O P R O G I/ O PR OG I/O PR OG I/O PR OG I/O PR OG I/O P R O G I/O P R O G I/O P R O G I/O

N V M E M

UMS Architecture



Memory bandwidth scales with processing



Scalable processing, software, I/O



Each app runs on its own pool of processors

(55)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(56)

Linus’s Law:

Linux everywhere



Software is or should be free



All source code is “open”



Everyone is a tester



Everything proceeds a lot faster when everyone

works on one code



Anyone can support and market the code for any

price

(57)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

ISTORE Hardware Vision



System-on-a-chip enables computer, memory, without

significantly increasing size of disk



5-7 year target:

MicroDrive:1.7” x 1.4” x 0.2”

2006: ?

1999: 340 MB, 5400 RPM,

5 MB/s, 15 ms seek

2006: 9 GB, 50 MB/s ? (1.6X/yr capacity,

1.4X/yr BW)

Integrated IRAM processor

2x height

Connected via crossbar switch

growing like Moore’s law

16 Mbytes; ; 1.6 Gflops; 6.4 Gops

(58)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

The Disk Farm? or

a System On a Card?

The 500GB disc card

An array of discs

Can be used as

100 discs

1 striped disc

50 FT discs

....etc

LOTS of accesses/second

of bandwidth

A few disks are replaced by 10s of Gbytes of RAM and a

processor to run Apps!!

(59)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Nanochip.com

8

Trends: promises

NEMS

(Nano Electro Mechanical Systems)

(

http://www.nanochip.com/

)

also Cornell, IBM, CMU,…

• 250 Gbpsi by

using tunneling electronic microscope

• Disk replacement

• Capacity: 180 GB now, 1.4 TB in 2 years

• Transfer rate: 100 MB/sec R&W

• Latency: 0.5msec

(60)

Disk vs Tape

At 10K$/TB disks

are competitive

with nearline tape.



Disk

–

40 GB

–

20 MBps

–

5 ms seek time

–

3 ms rotate latency

–

7$/GB for drive

3$/GB for ctlrs/cabinet

–

4 TB/rack

–

1 hour scan



Tape

– _{40 GB} – _{10 MBps}

– _{10 sec pick time}

– _{30-120 second seek time} – _{2$/GB for media}

8$/GB for drive+library

– _{10 TB/rack}

–

1 week scan

The price advantage of tape is narrowing, and

the performance advantage of disk is growing

(61)

(62)

Telnet &

FTP

EMAIL

WWW

Audio

Video

Voice!

Standards

Increase Capacity

(circuits & bw)

Lower

response time

Create new

service

Increased

Demand

(63)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

744Mbps over 5000 km to transmit 14 GB

~

4e15 bit meters per second

4 Peta Bmps (“peta bumps”)

Single Stream tcp/ip throughput

Information Sciences Institute

Microsoft

QWest

University of Washington

Pacific Northwest Gigapop

HSCC (high speed connectivity

(64)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Map of Gray Bell Prize results

Redmond/Seattle, WA

San Francisco,

CA

New York

Arlington, VA

5626 km

10 hops

single-thread single-stream tcp/ip

via 7 hops

(65)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

1 GBps

Ubiquitous 10 GBps SANs

in 5 years



1Gbps Ethernet are reality now.

–

Also FiberChannel ,MyriNet, GigaNet,

ServerNet,, ATM,…



10 Gbps x4 WDM deployed now

(OC192)

–

3 Tbps WDM working in lab



In 5 years, expect 10x,

wow!!

5 MBps

20 MBps

40 MBps

80 MBps

120 MBps

(1Gbps)

(66)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

0 50 100 150 200 250

100Mbps

Gbps

SAN

Transmit

receivercpu

sender cpu

Time µs to

Send 1KB

The Promise of SAN/VIA

:10x in 2 years

http://www.ViArch.org/



Yesterday:

–

10 MBps

_{(100 Mbps Ethernet)}

–

~20 MBps tcp/ip saturates

2 cpus

–

round-trip latency ~250 µs



Now

–

Wires are 10x faster

Myrinet, Gbps Ethernet, ServerNet,…

–

Fast user-level

communication

-

tcp/ip ~ 100 MBps 10% cpu

-

round-trip latency is 15 us

(67)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Modern scalable switches …

also hide a supercomputer



Scale from <1 to 120 Tbps



1 Gbps ethernet switches scale to

10s of Gbps, scaling upward

(68)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Where are the challenges?



Continued development based on clusters

… Scalar processors need to compete with

vectors. The U.S. has cast its lot with COTS!



Explore radical alternatives.



WWW is here. Now exploit it in every respect.

–

Exploit OSS… though it may not be new!

–

Telepresence & interactive communities!!!

–

Grid as a prelude to:

–

Application Service Providers

-

Prototype biologist and chemist workbenches

-

Labscape @ Cell laboratory, U. of WA

(69)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

Labscape

1

(70)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(71)

PC+

(72)

PC+

Labscape sensors



Location tracking of people/samples

–

multiple resolutions

–

passive and active tags



Manual tasks (e.g., use of reagents,

tools)



Audio/video records, vision and indexing



Networked instruments (e.g., pipettes,

(73)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

What am I willing to predict?



Processing & data can be anywhere…

–

Maui… in winter. BW is the limiter!

–

Japan… if supers are so super else use PCs

–

In the disks

–

Application Service Providers: can we separate our data from

ourselves and businesses

(ying-yang of personal versus central services)



The GRID e.g. biologist & chemist workbenches

iff

the IP

doesn’t get in way



Collaboration

ala astrophysics (high energy physics, math,

earth sci. and any pure science if pure science continues!)

(74)

Copyright Gordon Bell & Jim Gray

PC+

(75)

BIO INTELLIGENCE AGE

T

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TIME (year)

2000 BC

2000 BC 00 15001500 18001800 19001900 2000 AD2000 AD

CONSUMER ACCEPTANCE

AGRICULTURAL

INDUSTRIAL

BIOINTELLIGENCE

INFORMATION