Polish Wheat and Corn Growers See Big Yields Warsaw Poland 8 30 2017

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THIS REPORT CONTAINS ASSESSMENTS OF COMMODITY AND TRADE ISSUES MADE BY USDA STAFF AND NOT NECESSARILY STATEMENTS OF OFFICIAL U.S. GOVERNMENT POLICY

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Poland’s production of wheat, rye, mixed grains and triticale, barley, corn, and oats in MY 2017/18 is forecast to reach 31.9 million metric tons (MMT), a 7.5 percent increase over MY 2016/17. MY 2017/18 export opportunities for Polish grain look to be higher than last year, mostly due to better yields and higher area planted. MY 2017/18 grain quality varies from region to region. Post also expects an increase in cereal milling and processing.

Grains Area and Production

Mira Kobuszynska, Agricultural Specialist Jonn Slette, Agricultural Attaché

Agricultural Situation Grain and Feed

Polish Wheat and Corn Growers See Big Yields

Warsaw

Poland

8/30/2017 Public

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Post forecasts that total Polish production of wheat, rye, mixed grains and triticale, barley, corn, and oats in MY 2017/18 is forecast to reach 31.9 MMT, a 7.5-percent increase over MY 2016/17. This increase is the result of better average yields and larger area planted for cereal crops over last year. The biggest production increases are forecast for rye (27.3 percent) and mixed grains and triticale (28.4 percent). Feed-grain production increased in MY 2017/18 due to expanded on-farm use for livestock feed.

The total acreage of winter and spring crops in MY 2017/18 is estimated at 7.75 million hectares (Ha), a 5.4-percent increase over MY 2016/17. Area planted exceeded last year’s acreage, with rye (18.3 percent) and mixed grains and triticale (4.1 percent) accounting for the largest increases.

Planting conductions for winter cereal crops were favorable and provided a good start for the 2017 crop. Frequent precipitation during fall 2016 improved soil moisture and seed germination. Winter weather was generally good and created favorable growing conditions in Poland, despite low temperatures and lack of snow cover in January 2017. Winterkill losses occurred mostly in eastern regions, but they were relatively isolated. Planting concluded for oats and spring wheat by the end of March, following delays due to cold weather. Frosts through mid-May also caused some damage, particularly for spring-planted crops. Warm days in June made for good growing conditions in that month, although storms in July and August caused isolated rain, wind, and hail damage, particularly in northwest Poland, which

experienced particularly severe weather in mid-August. Harvests are delayed in that region as a result. High soil moisture also increased incidents of mold and therefore lower grain quality in some regions.

MY 2017/18 grain quality tended to vary region to region and overall quality is generally lower than in MY 2016/17. Wet weather during harvest negatively affected quality and will lead to another

consecutive year of higher feed-grain stocks. Northwestern growers are also experiencing fusarium fungus infestations.

Polish wheat production in MY 2017/18 is forecast at 11.3 MMT, a 4.4-percent over the previous year. Wheat acres in MY 2017/18 are estimated at 2.4 million Ha, a one-percent increase over the previous year. Domestic consumption will increase due to higher industrial and feed usage. MY 2017/18 winter wheat yields are estimated higher than in MY 2016/17. Spring wheat yields will be generally consistent with last year’s levels.

Corn acreage in MY 2017/18 increased to 650,000 Ha, a 9.2-percent over last year. Polish farmers shifted more acres into corn based on expectations of higher returns and favorable opportunities to export. Polish corn end-users include the feed industry, on-farm usage for livestock feed, the biofuel industry, and the potable-alcohol industry. Almost 80 percent of domestic corn use will be fed to livestock in MY 2017/18, driven largely by Poland’ expanding poultry sector. In MY 2016/17 industrial poultry production (excluding on-farm production) increased by about 16 percent. Total poultry and poultry products exports (quantity basis) was 19 percent higher than the year before. Corn growers expect a good harvest this year, excepting for the Lower Silesia region, where heavy hail damage occurred in mid-August. Polish corn quality can vary by region and those areas most affected by heavy rainfall in August may be prone to mold and fungus damage.

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grains, it remains lower than in previous years due to flat domestic hog production. Mixed grains and triticale use for bioethanol production is relatively small, accounting for only 2-3 percent of domestic use. Growth in triticale production and diminishing production of mixed grains is expected to continue in the long term. Triticale replaces mixed grains for feed use.

Area Planted by Variety 2015 – 2017 (000) Ha

2015 2016 2017* Structure of sowings

in 2016 (%)

Structure of sowings in 2017

(%)

Wheat 2,400 2,384 2,400 32.4 31.0

Rye 725 761 900 10.3 11.6

Mixed grains and

triticale 2,329 2,209 2,300 30.0

29.6

Barley 840 926 1000 12.6 12.9

Corn 670 595 650 8.2 8.4

Oats 461 478 500 6.5 6.5

Total 7,425 7,353 7,750 100.0 100.0

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland *estimate

Production by Variety 2015 – 2017 (000) MT

2015 2016 2017* Structure of

production

Wheat 11,000 10,828 11,300 36.5 35.4

Rye 2,013 2,200 2,800 7.4 8.8

Mixed grains and

triticale 7,589 7,518 8,100 25.3

25.4

Barley 2,961 3,441 3,800 11.6 11.9

Corn 3,156 4,343 4,400 14.6 13.8

Oats 1,220 1,358 1,500 4.6 4.7

Total 27,939 29,688 31,900 100.0 100.0

Source: Main Statistical Office, Poland *estimate

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Total Production

Winter wheat 8,958 9,600 +642 +7.2

Spring wheat 1,870 1,700 -170 -9.1

Wheat total 10,828 11,300 +472 +4.4

Rye 2,200 2,800 +600 +27.3

Winter triticale 4,520 4,500 -20 -0.4

Spring triticale 583 500 -83 -14.2

Triticale total 5,103 5,000 -103 -2.0

Winter barley 619 900 +281 +45.4

Spring barley 2,822 2,900 +78 +2.8

Barley total 3,441 3,800 +359 +10.4

Winter mixed grains 195 300 +105 +53.8

Spring mixed grains 2,220 2,800 +580 +26.1

Mixed grains total 2,415 3,100 +685 +28.4

Oat 1,358 1,500 +142 +10.5

Corn 4,343 4,400 +57 +1.3

TOTAL 29,688 31,900 +2,212 +7.5

Source: Main Statistical Office *FAS Warsaw forecast

Yields by Variety

Yields

(000) MT/Ha 2016 2017

Winter wheat 4.72 4.97

Spring wheat 3.83 3.84

Wheat total 4.54 -

Rye 2.89 3.13

Winter triticale 3.71 3.94 Spring triticale 3.17 3.25

Triticale total 3.64

-Winter barley 4.46 4.46 Spring barley 3.58 3.70

Barley total 3.72

-Winter mixed grains 3.24 3.44 Spring mixed grains 2.98 3.13

Mixed grains total 3.0

-Oat 2.84 2.95

Corn 7.29 6.77*

TOTAL 4.0 4.1

Source: Main Statistical Office

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Grain Processing and Consumption

Polish cereal milling and processing in MY 2017/18 is expected to increase for the second straight year. In MY 2016/17, cereal millings increased by 4.5 percent over the previous year, and reached 3.7

million MT according to the Polish Main Statistical Office. Groats, flakes, and flour production account for the largest production increases. Bread and pasta production is forecast to slow in 2017/18 and stabilize at levels consistent with last year. Strong profit margins for cereal processers increased capital investments, especially in the milling and pasta sectors. Higher pasta production has increased demand for imported durum during the past few years in Poland. Strong demand for feed is forecast in MY 2017/18, driven by poultry production and industrial feed demand.

Trade

Polish grain exports in MY 2017/18 are expected to exceed last year, with soft wheat (about 70 percent of total grain export volume) leading the way. Corn exports are also forecast higher than last year. On-farm storage capacity has increased recently and is roughly on par with production.

Saudi Arabia, Germany, Algeria, and Nigeria were the main export markets for Poland in MY 2016/17. The share of non-EU export markets continued to increase, with wheat exports developing fastest. Saudi Arabia, Algeria, and Nigeria accounted for a 43-percent cumulative share of total Polish wheat (mostly feed wheat) exports during the first 10 months of MY 2016/17. During the first ten months of MY 2016/17, Polish wheat exports exceeded the previous year’s total export volume by two percent.

Post forecasts MY 2017/18 exports of other grains like rye, barley, triticale and oats will be higher in comparison with MY 2016/17. In MY 2016/17, the availability of corn from Poland increased following low domestic stocks. In the first ten months of MY 2016/17 exports of corn from Poland amounted to 1.1 MMT, double the volume of exports in MY 2015/16. The quality of corn for feedstuff was assessed generally well.

Poland’s main international grain and cereal suppliers are other EU Member Countries, which

accounted for over 98 percent of Poland’s imports during the ten months of MY 2016/17. MY 2017/18 imports are forecast to diminish in comparison with MT 2016/17.

Grain Exports (000) MT

MY 2015/16 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17

10 Month Ending April

Total exports Total exports Total exports

Wheat 3,707 2,910 3,772

Rye 519 458 351

Barley 177 175 77

Mixed grains & triticale 527 482 368

Oats 89 82 72

Corn 560 296 1,121

Source: Global Trade Atlas Eurostat

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MY 2015/16 MY 2015/16 MY 2016/17

Total imports Total imports Total imports

Wheat 804 498 734

Rye 4 4 12

Barley 132 101 158

Mixed grains & triticale 11 7 8

Oats 19 18 5

Corn 502 439 152

Poland Export Statistics

Commodity: 1001, Wheat And Meslin 10 Month Ending: April

Partner

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2017/201

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26.70 37.01 29.24 2.44

Non-EU 28 2,995,19

T 947,781 547,910 957,292 23.19 18.83 25.38 74.72

Germany T 927,554 711,464 701,106 22.70 24.45 18.59 - 1.46 Algeria T 397,965 165,996 320,416 9.74 5.70 8.49 93.03

Nigeria T - 171,664 316,560 0.00 5.90 8.39 84.41

Spain T 59,073 155,084 225,296 1.45 5.33 5.97 45.27

Mozambiqu e

T 28,749 33,237 211,329 0.70 1.14 5.60 535.82

Egypt T 382,188 340,612 173,183 9.35 11.71 4.59 - 49.16

Kenya T 192,864 93,300 147,954 4.72 3.21 3.92 58.58

South Africa

T 91,667 129,026 115,708 2.24 4.43 3.07 - 10.32

Cuba T 25,200 127,249 101,895 0.62 4.37 2.70 - 19.92

Tanzania T 69,400 51,000 93,497 1.70 1.75 2.48 83.33

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Poland Import Statistics

Commodity: 1001, Wheat And Meslin 10 Month Ending: April

Partner Country Unit Quantity % Share % Change

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2017/2016

World T 487,929 497,642 734,136 100.00 100.00 100.00 47.52

EU28 T 461,316 482,905 721,291 94.55 97.04 98.25 49.37

Non EU 28 26,613 14,737 12,845

Slovakia T 191,826 167,089 303,660 39.31 33.58 41.36 81.74 Czech Republic T 148,957 180,721 292,013 30.53 36.32 39.78 61.58 Germany T 62,084 57,651 64,658 12.72 11.58 8.81 12.15

Poland Export Statistics Commodity: 1005, Corn

7 Month Ending: April Partner

Country Unit

Quantity % Share % Change

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2017/2016

World T 437,532 296,306 1,120,585 100.00 100.00 100.00 278.18

EU28 T 429,015 295,366 1,051,797 98.05 99.68 93.86 256.10

Non EU 8,517 940 68,788

Germany T 393,366 241,942 644,995 89.91 81.65 57.56 166.59

Netherlands T 67 43 176,764 0.02 0.01 15.77 ∞

Poland Import Statistics Commodity: 1005, Corn

7 Month Ending: April

Partner

Country Unit

Quantity % Share %

Change

2015 2016 2017 2015 2016 2017 2017/2016

World T 194,831 439,439 152,063 100.00 100.00 100.00 - 65.40

EU28 T 161,837 116,099 94,234 83.07 26.42 61.97 - 18.83

Non EU 32,994 323,340 57,829

Ukraine T 2,076 282,372 36,337 1.07 64.26 23.90 - 87.13 Slovakia T 55,981 20,673 34,218 28.73 4.70 22.50 65.52

Czech Republic

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Argentina T 26,274 37,844 21,111 13.49 8.61 13.88 - 44.22

United States T 374 527 250 0.19 0.12 0.16 - 52.56