Sector Update : Otomotif (Astra Group)

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PT Mega Capital Indonesia

Sector Update :

Otomotif (Astra Group)

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Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masih

Berlanjut

Domestic Auto Sales Trend

-100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09

-10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 2W Sales 4W Sales Dampak dari krisis global

Tren penurunan BI rate &penguatan nilai tukar

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Tren Kenaikan Penjualan Otomotif masih

Berlanjut

Astra Auto Sales

-50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000

Jan-08 Mar-08 May-08 Jul-08 Sep-08 Nov-08 Jan-09 Mar-09 May-09

-5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000

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Pangsa Pasar Otomotif Astra

4W Market Share as June 2009

Astra, 59.5% Honda, 6.6% Mitsubishi, 12.1% Suzuki, 9.5% Others, 12.2%

2W Market Share as June 2009

Others, 0.05% Kawasaki, 1.44% Suzuki, 8.74% Yamaha, 45.06% Astra/Honda, 44.70%

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BI Rate vs Auto Sales

BI Rate vs 4W Sales -10,000 20,000 30,000 40,000 50,000 60,000 70,000 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 4W Sales BI Rate BI Rate vs 2W Sales -100,000 200,000 300,000 400,000 500,000 600,000 700,000 May-08 Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 7% 8% 9% 10% 2W Sales BI Rate

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Revenue Breakdown

Revenue Breakdown (IDR bio)

1H08

1H09

% % to total revenue

Otomotif

25,076

22,811

-9.0%

51.0%

Financial services

3,793

3,974

4.8%

8.9%

Agribusiness

4,645

3,538

-23.8%

7.9%

Information technology

373

673 80.4%

1.5%

Heavy equipment and mining

12,591

13,883

10.3%

31.0%

Others

13

129 892.3%

0.3%

Total

46,267

44,761

-3.3%

100.0%

Kontribusi pendapatan yang cukup besar dari UNTR

Penjualan mobil dan motor 1H09 masing-masing turun 18% dan 17% YoY.

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Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi

ASII's 1H09 Result 1H08 1H09 % Net revenue 46,267 44,761 -3.3% Cost of revenue (35,191) (34,122) -3.0% Gross profit 11,076 10,639 -3.9% Operating expenses (4,466) (4,753) 6.4% Operating income 6,610 5,886 -11.0% Other income/expenses 378 572 51.3% Share of results of associates 1,154 896 -22.4% Profit before income tax 8,142 7,354 -9.7% Income tax expenses (2,289) (1,965) -14.2% Income before minority interests 5,853 5,389 -7.9% Minority interests (1,100) (1,146) 4.2% Net income 4,753 4,243 -10.7%

EPS 1,174 1,048

1H08

1H09

%

Gross Profit Margin

23.9%

23.8%

-0.7%

Operating Profit Margin

14.3%

13.1%

-8.0%

Net Profit Margin

10.3%

9.5%

-7.7%

58% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus, 57% dari ekspektasi kami

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Revenue Breakdown

Revenue 1H09 Breakdown

(IDR Bio)

2008

2009 % Change % to total revenue

Construction Machinery

6,364

5,464

-14.1%

39.4%

Mining contracting

4,653

6,888

48.0%

49.6%

Mining

1,575

1,532

-2.7%

11.0%

Total

12,592

13,884

10.3%

100.0%

Penjualan Komatsu turun 44%

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Mesin Konstruksi (Komatsu)

Construction Machinery (Komatsu)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09 in Unit 0 100 200 300 400 500 600

Permintaan dari sektor pertambangan/perkebu nan masih kuat

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Coal Sales Volume (Dasa Eka Jasatama)

0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350

Jun-08 Jul-08 Aug-08 Sep-08 Oct-08 Nov-08 Dec-08 Jan-09 Feb-09 Mar-09 Apr-09 May-09 Jun-09

000 ton

Pertambangan

Turun karena

permasalahan

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Overburden Removal (Pamapersada)

Overburden Removal 0 10 20 30 40 50 60

Jun-08 Aug-08 Oct-08 Dec-08 Feb-09 Apr-09 Jun-09

mio bcm

• Kontributor pendapatan terbesar bagi UNTR • Aktivitas pertambangan

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Kinerja 1H09 diatas ekspektasi

UNTR's1H 2009 Result (IDR Bio) 2008 2009 % Net Revenue 12,592 13,884 10.3% COGS (10,134) (10,660) 5.2% Gross profit 2,458 3,225 31.2% Operating expenses (527) (641) 21.6% Operating Income 1,931 2,584 33.8% Other Income/expenses (68) 151 321.0% Share of results of associates 2 3 69.9% Profit before income tax 1,865 2,738 46.8% Income tax expenses (649) (848) 30.6% Income before minority interest 1,216 1,891 55.5% Minority Interest (10) (18) 82.5% Net Income 1,206 1,873 55.3%

EPS 423 563

1H08 1H09 %

Gross Profit Margin 19.5% 23.2% 19.0% Operating Profit Margin 15.3% 18.6% 21.3% Net Profit Margin 9.6% 13.5% 40.8%

63% dari Net Profit FY09E konsensus dan ekspektasi kami

Kenaikan keuntungan selisih kurs yang signifikan

Margin yang lebih tinggi, karena kemampuan dalam memantain cost

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Valuasi masih cukup menarik

Investment Opportunity:

• Permintaan alat berat untuk sektor berbasis komoditi masih cukup kuat • Potensial revenue yang cukup besar

dari bisnis tambang batubara (TTA&DEJ)

• Tren penurunan suku bunga dan membaiknya nilai tukar Rupiah

Investment Risk:

• Sensitif terhadap perkembangan harga komoditi&kondisi makro ekonomi

Rekomendasi: BUY, TP : Rp. 14.500

Key Ratio

2006A

2007A

2008A 2009F

2010F

EPS (IDR)

326

524

800

892 1,120

EPS Growth (%)

-11.49%

60.48%

52.76%

11.45%

25.57%

P/E (x)

20.09

20.80

6.31

16.36

13.03 BV (IDR)

4,938

3,840

4,184

4,466

4,279

P/BV (x)

4.07

5.42

1.32

3.27

3.41 ROE (%)

20.25%

26.04%

23.90%

22.39%

23.37%

ROA (%)

8.27%

11.48%

11.65%

12.06%

12.82%

DER (x)

0.92

0.67

0.40

0.37

0.33 Interest Coverage (%)

3.39

4.93

13.61

13.73

15.67

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AALI's Monthly CPO Price 2009 -1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000 5,000 6,000 7,000 8,000

Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Jun

Rp./kg

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Sales vs Average Selling Price

Sales Volume (000 ton)

476.9 80.7 8 11 _2.4 494 69.5 12.5 17.7 _2.5

CPO Kernel PKO PKE Rubber

1H08 1H09

Average Selling Price (Rp./kg)

8,299 4,418 10,599 925 24,204 392 6,386 2,528 16,873 6,153

CPO Kernel PKO PKE Rubber

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Kinerja 1H09 sejalan dengan ekspektasi

AALI's 1H09 Result

IDR Bio

1H08

1H09

%

Net Sales

4,644.7

3,537.8

-23.8%

COGS

(2,106.0)

(2,158.9)

2.5%

Gross Profit

2,538.7

1,378.9

-45.7%

Operating Income/Expense

(187.3)

(223.6)

19.4%

Operating Profit

2,351.4

1,155.3

-50.9%

Other Income/Expense

64.3

1.3 -98.0%

Profit before income tax

2,415.7

1,156.6

-52.1%

Income Tax Expense

(760.0)

(357.9)

-52.9%

Minority Interest

(57.6)

(28.8)

-50.0%

Net Income

1,598.1

769.9 -51.8%

AALI's 1H09 Result

IDR Bio

1H08

1H09

%

Net Sales

4,644.7

3,537.8

-23.8%

COGS

(2,106.0)

(2,158.9)

2.5%

Gross Profit

2,538.7

1,378.9

-45.7%

Operating Income/Expense

(187.3)

(223.6)

19.4%

Operating Profit

2,351.4

1,155.3

-50.9%

Other Income/Expense

64.3

1.3 -98.0%

Profit before income tax

2,415.7

1,156.6

-52.1%

Income Tax Expense

(760.0)

(357.9)

-52.9%

Minority Interest

(57.6)

(28.8)

-50.0%

Net Income

1,598.1

769.9 -51.8%

1H08 1H09 %

Gross Profit Margin 54.7% 39.0% -28.7%

Operating Margin 50.6% 32.7% -35.5%

EBITDA Margin 54.3% 36.4% -33.0%

Net Profit Margin 34.4% 21.8% -36.8%

1H08 1H09 %

Gross Profit Margin 54.7% 39.0% -28.7% Operating Margin 50.6% 32.7% -35.5% EBITDA Margin 54.3% 36.4% -33.0% Net Profit Margin 34.4% 21.8% -36.8%

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P/E Chart

P/E FY10F (x) -5 10 15 20 25 30 Jan-05 Apr-05 Jul-05 Oct-05 Jan-06 Apr-06 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Apr-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jan-08 Apr-08 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Market Cap EPS (Rp) P/E (x)

(bio) FY09F FY10F FY09F FY10F

AALI 30,235 1,049 1,244 18.20 15.36 LSIP 9,347 466 474 14.71 14.45 SGRO 3,364 133 159 13.31 11.13 UNSP 2,917 43 44 17.86 17.57

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Netral

• Harga CPO diperkirakan membaik di kuartal 2 2009

• Permintaan CPO masih besar

• Faktor cuaca dan penggunaan pupuk sangat mempengaruhi produksi Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 19.900 P/E FY10E = 16x

Key Ratio

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

EPS (IDR)

1,253

1,671

1,049

1,244

EPS Growth (%)

150.65%

33.32%

-37.19%

18.49%

P/E (x)

16.96

4.65

18.96

16.00 BV (IDR)

2,580

3,276

3,887

4,612

P/BV (x)

10.85

2.99

5.12

4.31 ROE (%)

57.96%

57.09%

29.31%

29.26%

ROA (%)

44.60%

44.32%

23.95%

24.80%

DER (x)

0.03

0.02 EV/EBITDA (x)

9.00

7.80

10.86

9.63

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Valuasi Astra International

Sum-of-the Parts

Method

Total Equity Value (bn) % to total

ASII (parent)

DCF @WACC 13,5%

48,628

39.8%

UNTR

DCF @TP 14.500

42,828

35.0%

AALI

P/E @16x FY10F

24,965

20.4%

BNLI

Market Cap

2,343

1.9%

AUTO

Market Cap

3,209

2.6%

ASGR

Market Cap

352 0.3%

Total value

122,324

Number of Share

4.048

(23)

Netral

• Menguasai pangsa pasar otomotif di Indonesia

• Tren penurunan suku bunga dan penguatan Rupiah menopang penjualan otomotif

• Bisnis yang terdiversifikasi

• Daya beli masyarakat terhadap kendaraan bermotor belum sepenuhnya pulih Rekomendasi: HOLD, TP : Rp. 30.200

Key Ratio

2007

2008

2009F

2010F

EPS (IDR)

1,610

2,270

1,852

2,030

EPS Growth (%)

75.57%

40.99%

-18.40%

9.56%

P/E (x)

16.96

4.65

16.30

14.88 BV (IDR)

6,660

8,171

9,572

11,109

P/BV (x)

4.10

1.29

3.17

2.73 ROE (%)

24.18%

27.78%

19.35%

18.27%

ROA (%)

10.26%

11.38%

8.88%

8.64%

DER (x)

0.31

0.29

0.30

0.29

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DISCLAIMER

This Document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by

PT Mega Capital Indonesia.