Marak Sentimen Negatif, IHSG Diproyeksi Melemah

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: 4,999.4

: -59.9 -1.18%

: 11,183 Mn shrs : 5,552 Bn rupiah Last

Close +/- %

POLL 10,150 0 0.0

ASII 4,670 -110 -2.3

EMTK 7,375 -25 -0.3

TLKM 2,810 -80 -2.8

BBRI 3,190 -30 -0.9

BMRI 5,475 -100 -1.8

INKP 9,050 -75 -0.8

ICBP 10,150 -25 -0.2

Foreign Net Buy / Sell (Regular Market) Net Buy (Rpbn) Net Sell (Rpbn)

BBRI 65 BBCA 91

TOWR 26 BSDE 59

UNTR 15 ASII 29

TCPI 7 BBNI 26

TBIG 7 TLKM 26 Money Market

Last

Close +/- %

USD/IDR 14,700 -35.0 0.2

JIBOR O/N 5.9 0.0

Dual Listing Securities Last

Close +/- %

TLKM 18.9 -0.4 -1.9

EIDO 17.7 -0.3 -1.9

Global Indices Last

Close +/- %

DJIA 27,148 -510 -1.8

S&P 500 3,281 -38 -1.2

Euro Stoxx 3,161 -123 -3.7

MSCI World 2,329 -39 -1.6

STI 2,486 -12 -0.5

Nikkei 23,360 41 0.2

Market Value Market Activity Monday, 21 Sep 2020 Market Index Index Movement Market Volume

Changes

Leading Movers

Lagging Movers

Changes

DAILY RESEARCH

Market

Marak Sentimen Negatif, IHSG Diproyeksi Melemah

Semalam bursa AS ditutup melemah: Dow Jones -1.84%, S&P 500 - 1.16% dan Nasdaq -0.13%. Pelaku pasar kuatir akan diterapkannya kembali lock down di Eropa dan kemungkinan penundaan stimulus baru dari Kongres.

Beberapa Indeks utama Eropa turut turun tajam, FTSE 100 Index London - 3.38% dan Dax Frankfurt -4.37%.

Dari Asia, perdagangan kemarin beberapa bursa utama Asia kompak ditutup melemah: Hang Seng -2.1%, Kospi -1.0% dan Shanghai -0.6%.

Sementara IHSG ditutup turun -1.18% ke level 4,999.4 ditengah net sell asing sebesar IDR 249.5 miliar di pasar reguler. EIDO ditutup turun -1.94%.

Beberapa sentimen yang dapat mempengaruhi perdagangan hari ini:

Kasus dokumen FinCen yang bocor mengindikasi transaksi pencucian uang oleh beberapa bank besar dengan nilai mencapai US$ 2 triliun. Saham JP Morgan Chase & Co dan Bank of New York Mellon Corp ditutup turun -3.1% dan -4.0%.

Dollar indeks menguat menjadi 93.56 dan harga komoditas emas turun menjadi USD 1,917 per troy ons. Dari dalam negeri, Indonesia kembali mencatatkan new high kasus baru Covid-19 sebesar 4,176 kasus dan mendekati total kasus 250 ribu.



Perbankan: Pemerintah akan pangkas bunga PEN perbankan

Highlights

22 September 2020

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Equity Research│22 September 2020

Perbankan: Pemerintah akan pangkas bunga PEN perbankan

Pemerintah akan menurunkan suku bunga penempatan PEN tahap dua di perbankan menjadi 2.8% dari sebelumnya 3.42%. Pada tahap pertama, pemerintah telah menempatkan dana Rp 30 triliun di bank himbara dan Rp 11.5 triliun di BPD. Suku bunga 2.8% ini didapat berdasarkan suku bunga lelang terakhir BI 3 Months Reserve Repo Rate (BI3MRRR) yang berlaku September 2020 sebesar 3.8% dikurangi 1%. Rencananya pemerintah akan menempatkan dana tahap 2 ini di akhir September 2020. Pagu yang masih tersedia adalah Rp 37.8 triliun. (Kontan)

Comment:

Pemerintah sebenarnya berencana menempatkan dana tersebut juga di bank swasta besar yang

memenuhi syarat, tapi tampaknya bunga dari dana penempatan itu diperkirakan lebih tinggi dari CoF

bank swasta terkait sehingga kurang menarik. Banking sector: Overweight

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Equity Research│22 September 2020

Gold: Gold 100 Oz Futures Dec20 (USD/Troi oz) Oil: Generic 1st Crude Oil, Brent (USD/Barel)

Coal: Newcastle Coal (USD/MT) CPO: Bursa Malaysia Crude Palm Oil (MYR/MT)

Pulp: Generic Bleached Softwood Craft Pulp (CNY/MT) Nickel: London Metal Exchange Nickel Future (USD/MT)

23-Sep-19 23-Oct-19 23-Nov-19 23-Dec-19 23-Jan-20 23-Feb-20 23-Mar-20 23-Apr-20 23-May-20 23-Jun-20 23-Jul-20 23-Aug-20

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80

40 45 50 55 60 65 70 75 80

1,500 1,700 1,900 2,100 2,300 2,500 2,700 2,900 3,100 3,300

4,000 4,100 4,200 4,300 4,400 4,500 4,600 4,700 4,800 4,900 5,000

10,000 11,000 12,000 13,000 14,000 15,000 16,000 17,000 18,000 19,000

1,400 1,500 1,600 1,700 1,800 1,900 2,000 2,100 2,200

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Equity Research│22 September 2020

JCI Wgt Last price YTD Chg TP SSI TP Cons SSI Upside PE PE PBV PBV ROE ROE

(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E

Banks

BMRI BUY 4.5 5,475 (28.7) 7,700 6,790 40.6 8.9 8.9 1.1 1.0 12.7% 11.6%

BBCA BUY 12.3 28,025 (16.2) 32,000 33,050 14.2 28.6 22.4 3.9 3.5 13.7% 15.8%

BBRI BUY 7.0 3,190 (27.5) 3,800 3,859 19.1 20.3 12.0 2.1 1.9 10.3% 15.8%

BBNI BUY 1.5 4,590 (41.5) 6,000 5,648 30.7 12.7 6.3 0.7 0.6 5.4% 10.0%

BBTN BUY 0.2 1,250 (41.0) 1,500 1,502 20.0 4.3 4.1 0.5 0.4 10.9% 10.6%

BNLI HOLD 0.7 1,335 5.5 1,376 1,366 3.1 24.7 23.0 1.5 1.4 6.1% 6.1%

Average 16.6 12.8 1.6 1.5 9.9% 11.6%

Consumer (Staples)

ICBP HOLD 2.1 10,150 (9.0) 9,300 12,061 -8.4 20.6 18.4 4.0 3.5 19.6% 19.1%

INDF BUY 1.2 7,525 (5.0) 9,500 8,729 26.2 13.4 12.3 1.7 1.6 12.9% 13.2%

KLBF BUY 1.3 1,500 (7.4) 1,750 1,734 16.7 23.8 22.7 4.0 3.6 16.8% 16.1%

UNVR BUY 5.5 8,000 (4.8) 9,800 8,983 22.5 38.1 37.7 47.2 46.6 123.7% 123.4%

Average 24.0 22.8 14.2 13.8 43.3% 42.9%

Cigarette

HMSP HOLD 3.1 1,490 (29.0) 1,520 1,790 2.0 17.3 17.1 5.4 5.3 30.9% 30.9%

GGRM BUY 1.5 42,675 (19.5) 71,700 57,517 68.0 13.7 10.7 1.5 1.4 11.2% 13.4%

Average 15.5 13.9 3.5 3.4 21.1% 22.1%

Healthcare

MIKA BUY 0.6 2,340 (12.4) 2,900 2,565 23.9 45.0 43.3 7.6 3.7 17.0% 8.6%

SILO BUY 0.1 4,550 (34.5) 9,000 5,695 97.8 37.6 26.8 1.1 1.1 3.0% 4.0%

HEAL BUY 0.2 3,400 (5.0) 5,000 4,296 47.1 41.5 31.8 4.3 3.8 10.3% 12.0%

Average 41.4 34.0 4.4 2.9 10.1% 8.2%

Poultry

CPIN HOLD 1.8 6,200 (4.6) 5,800 5,515 -6.5 25.5 22.4 4.2 3.7 16.5% 16.7%

JPFA BUY 0.2 1,120 (27.0) 1,500 1,285 33.9 6.0 5.5 1.0 0.9 17.0% 16.2%

MAIN BUY 0.0 550 (45.3) 700 611 27.3 3.7 3.4 0.5 0.5 14.1% 14.0%

Average 11.7 10.4 1.9 1.7 15.9% 15.6%

Retail

MAPI BUY 0.2 575 (45.5) 1,350 836 134.8 8.1 7.2 1.2 1.1 15.4% 14.8%

RALS BUY 0.1 565 (46.9) 1,400 670 147.8 4.9 4.5 0.8 0.8 17.3% 17.3%

ACES BUY 0.5 1,505 0.7 1,900 1,731 26.2 22.1 19.8 4.7 4.1 21.2% 20.7%

Average 11.7 10.5 2.3 2.0 18.0% 17.6%

Pulp and Paper

INKP SELL 0.9 9,050 17.5 7,175 8,950 -20.7 6.6 6.3 0.7 0.7 11.0% 10.7%

Average 6.6 6.3 0.7 0.7 11.0%

Media

MNCN BUY 0.2 755 (53.7) 1,390 1,357 84.1 4.1 3.6 0.7 0.6 17.5% 17.3%

SCMA BUY 0.3 1,170 (17.0) 1,550 1,480 32.5 10.1 10.1 2.7 2.4 26.4% 23.8%

Average 7.1 6.9 1.7 1.5 22.0% 20.5%

Telco

EXCL BUY 0.4 2,060 (34.6) 3,500 3,458 69.9 21.5 19.8 1.1 1.1 5.1% 5.4%

ISAT BUY 0.2 2,030 (30.2) 2,800 3,094 37.9 n/a n/a 1.0 1.0 -9.7% -2.2%

TLKM BUY 5.0 2,810 (28.3) 4,300 3,901 53.0 13.6 12.5 2.3 2.2 16.9% 17.5%

Average 17.5 16.1 1.5 1.4 4.1% 6.9%

Telco Retail

ERAA HOLD 0.1 1,590 (11.4) 1,625 1,758 2.2 8.5 6.9 0.9 0.8 11.0% 11.9%

Telco Infra

TBIG BUY 0.5 1,295 5.3 1,490 1,426 15.1 27.0 25.4 4.5 4.0 16.5% 15.6%

TOWR BUY 0.9 1,025 27.3 1,300 1,258 26.8 17.4 16.0 5.9 4.8 34.1% 30.0%

Average 22.2 20.7 5.2 4.4 25.3% 22.8%

Stock Rec.

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Equity Research│22 September 2020

(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E

Auto

ASII BUY 3.4 4,670 (32.6) 7,500 5,712 60.6 8.7 7.9 0.9 0.9 10.8% 10.9%

Average 8.7 7.9 0.9 0.9 10.8%

Mining Contracting

UNTR HOLD 1.6 23,600 9.6 22,300 25,681 -5.5 7.4 5.5 1.6 1.1 22.1% 19.7%

Average 7.4 5.5 1.6 1.1 22.1%

Aviation

GIAA BUY 0.1 230 (53.8) 650 239 182.6 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.3 17.5% 16.9%

Average 2.3 2.0 0.4 0.3 17.5%

Property

BSDE HOLD 0.3 800 (36.3) 820 968 2.5 11.9 11.4 0.4 0.4 3.7% 3.6%

PWON BUY 0.3 370 (35.1) 650 527 75.7 6.1 5.6 1.0 0.9 16.5% 15.4%

ASRI BUY 0.0 122 (48.7) 360 137 195.1 3.1 3.7 0.2 0.2 7.1% 5.5%

LPKR BUY 0.2 123 (49.2) 380 184 208.9 11.2 9.5 0.3 0.3 2.5% 2.9%

SMRA BUY 0.1 565 (43.8) 1,500 775 165.5 12.8 10.3 1.0 0.9 8.0% 9.2%

CTRA HOLD 0.2 665 (36.1) 650 871 -2.3 13.9 13.3 0.8 0.7 5.5% 5.5%

Average 9.8 9.0 0.6 0.6 7.2% 7.0%

Industrial Estate

SSIA BUY 0.0 424 (35.3) 550 433 29.7 47.1 23.6 0.5 0.5 1.0% 2.0%

DMAS BUY 0.2 218 (26.4) 250 245 14.7 6.6 6.2 1.4 1.4 21.0% 21.9%

KIJA SELL 0.1 171 (41.4) 150 150 -12.3 15.5 13.2 0.6 0.4 4.0% 3.4%

Average 23.1 14.3 0.8 0.8 8.7% 7.7%

Construction

PTPP BUY 0.1 835 (47.3) 1,200 1,148 43.7 3.8 3.5 0.2 0.3 6.5% 7.3%

ADHI BUY 0.0 515 (56.2) 1,800 773 249.5 2.5 2.3 0.2 0.2 10.0% 10.0%

WSKT HOLD 0.1 555 (62.6) 600 742 8.1 n/a 30.8 0.3 0.3 -7.3% 1.1%

WIKA BUY 0.2 1,130 (43.2) 1,600 1,495 41.6 11.8 7.7 0.6 0.5 5.0% 7.1%

Average 6.0 11.1 0.3 0.3 3.5% 6.4%

Cement

INTP BUY 0.7 10,850 (43.0) 12,200 14,553 12.4 30.1 25.1 1.8 1.7 5.8% 6.9%

SMGR BUY 1.0 9,200 (23.3) 10,800 11,714 17.4 41.1 24.3 1.6 1.5 3.8% 6.1%

Average 35.6 24.7 1.7 1.6 4.8% 6.5%

Precast

WSBP BUY 0.1 148 (51.3) 170 272 14.9 3.4 2.9 0.4 0.4 12.1% 12.7%

WTON BUY 0.0 242 (46.2) 340 430 40.5 3.4 2.9 0.5 0.5 15.6% 16.0%

Average 3.4 2.9 0.5 0.4 13.8% 14.3%

Oil and Gas

PGAS SELL 0.4 1,010 (53.5) 700 1,336 -30.7 17.1 12.8 0.6 0.6 3.6% 4.6%

AKRA BUY 0.2 2,660 (32.7) 3,800 3,597 42.9 13.8 12.0 1.3 1.2 9.1% 10.0%

MEDC BUY 0.2 402 (45.1) 950 528 136.3 7.1 3.2 0.4 0.4 5.9% 12.1%

Average 12.7 9.3 0.8 0.7 6.2% 8.9%

Chemical

TPIA HOLD 2.2 6,950 (33.0) 7,575 6,425 9.0 57.0 57.0 4.9 4.9 8.6% 8.6%

BRPT BUY 1.2 700 (53.6) 1,075 680 53.6 5.2 5.2 0.3 0.3 6.2% 6.2%

Stock Rec.

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Equity Research│22 September 2020

(%) (Rp) (%) (Rp) (Rp) (%) 20E 21E 20E 21E 20E 21E

Coal

ITMG HOLD 0.2 8,275 (27.9) 8,080 9,149 -2.4 3.1 3.8 1.2 2.2 37.8% 57.3%

ADRO BUY 0.7 1,145 (26.4) 1,600 1,296 39.7 6.0 6.0 0.6 0.6 9.9% 9.3%

PTBA HOLD 0.4 2,000 (24.8) 1,870 2,313 -6.5 8.3 12.5 1.3 1.3 15.7% 10.6%

Average 5.8 7.5 1.0 1.4 21.1% 25.7%

Plantation

AALI HOLD 0.4 10,650 (26.9) 11,100 12,283 4.2 31.9 18.8 1.1 1.0 3.4% 5.5%

LSIP BUY 0.1 995 (33.0) 1,145 1,172 15.1 19.1 17.2 0.8 0.8 4.1% 4.4%

TBLA BUY 0.1 780 (21.6) 980 1,017 25.6 4.8 4.5 0.7 0.6 14.3% 14.3%

SIMP BUY 0.1 310 (28.2) 388 470 25.2 28.2 18.2 0.3 0.3 1.2% 1.8%

SSMS BUY 0.1 810 (4.1) 1,050 1,100 29.6 15.6 11.1 1.7 1.5 11.0% 13.8%

Average 19.9 14.0 0.9 0.9 6.8% 8.0%

Source: SSI Research, Bloomberg

Note: GIAA, INKP, PGAS, ITMG, ADRO, MEDC, BRPT, INCO, DOID, TPIA report in USD.

Stock Rec.

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Equity Research│22 September 2020

Chg (Pts)

1D 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low

World 2,329 (38.50) (1.63) (3.26) (2.62) 5.04 (1.23) 6.00 2,500 1,579

U.S. (S&P) 3,281 (38.41) (1.16) (3.03) (3.42) 5.23 1.56 9.66 3,588 2,192

U.S. (DOW) 27,148 (509.72) (1.84) (3.02) (2.80) 4.31 (4.87) 0.79 29,569 18,214

Europe 3,161 (122.74) (3.74) (4.70) (3.03) (2.49) (15.60) (11.49) 3,867 2,303

Emerging Market 1,090 (18.18) (1.64) (2.00) (0.14) 9.01 (2.18) 6.76 1,151 752

FTSE 100 5,804 (202.76) (3.38) (3.68) (3.29) (7.05) (23.04) (20.98) 7,690 4,899

CAC 40 4,792 (186.14) (3.74) (5.14) (2.13) (3.17) (19.84) (15.79) 6,111 3,632

Dax 12,542 (573.81) (4.37) (4.94) (1.74) 2.28 (5.33) 0.60 13,795 8,256

Indonesia 4,999 (59.86) (1.18) (3.15) (5.19) 1.64 (20.64) (19.77) 6,349 3,912

Japan 23,360 40.93 0.18 (0.20) 1.92 3.92 (1.25) 5.80 24,116 16,358

Australia 5,794 (28.42) (0.49) (1.71) (5.19) (2.53) (13.31) (13.91) 7,197 4,403

Korea 2,364 (25.56) (1.07) (3.26) 2.57 11.15 7.56 13.02 2,458 1,439

Singapore 2,486 (12.00) (0.48) 0.13 (1.69) (5.48) (22.87) (21.33) 3,286 2,208

Malaysia 1,499 (7.20) (0.48) (0.36) (4.93) (0.78) (5.62) (6.13) 1,618 1,208

Hong Kong 23,951 (504.72) (2.06) (2.80) (4.63) (2.29) (15.04) (9.40) 29,175 21,139

China 3,317 (21.16) (0.63) 1.16 (1.89) 11.86 8.75 10.33 3,459 2,647

Taiwan 12,795 (80.50) (0.63) 0.06 1.49 10.56 6.65 17.07 13,032 8,524

Thailand 1,275 (13.23) (1.03) 0.22 (1.85) (5.70) (19.29) (22.07) 1,649 969

Philipines 5,909 0.42 0.01 (1.46) (1.60) (6.90) (24.39) (24.92) 8,217 4,039

1D 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low

Foreign Reserves (US$Bn) 137.00 1.42 4.95 6.05 8.35 137.00 120.97

Inflation Rate (yoy, %) 1.32 3.12 1.32

Gov Bond Yld (10yr, %) 6.89 (4.97) 8.38 6.51

US Fed Rate (%) 0.25 2.00 0.25

Chg (Pts)

1D 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low

Indonesia 14,700 (35.00) 0.24 1.22 0.50 (3.74) (5.67) (4.17) 16,625 13,577

Japan 104.74 0.09 (0.09) 0.67 1.18 2.07 3.69 2.68 112.23 101.19

UK 1.28 (0.00) (0.09) (0.64) (1.97) 2.70 (3.40) 3.03 1.35 1.14

Euro 1.18 (0.00) (0.09) (0.73) (0.24) 4.43 4.88 6.98 1.20 1.06

China 6.81 0.04 (0.53) 0.08 1.68 3.87 2.32 4.59 7.18 6.75

Chg (Pts)

1D 1D 1W 1M 3M YTD 1YR High Low

Oil (Brent) 41.78 0.34 0.82 3.08 (5.79) (3.02) (36.70) (35.00) 71.75 15.98

CPO 3,007 (73.00) (2.37) 8.24 12.16 21.64 (1.47) 35.15 3,140 1,944

Rubber 828.50 3.50 0.42 1.53 4.87 1.04 8.44 11.58 837.50 685.00

Coal 58.80 1.40 2.44 9.29 18.55 10.22 (13.15) (14.22) 77.25 47.50

Tin 18,070 (0.50) (0.00) (0.30) 2.96 6.23 5.19 8.04 18,421 13,375

Nickel 14,541 (363.00) (2.44) (4.80) (1.02) 13.88 3.68 (16.69) 17,820 10,865

Copper 6,692 (121.00) (1.78) (1.54) 3.10 14.39 8.38 15.41 6,878 4,371

Change (%) 1 Year

Commodity Indicators Last Price Regional Indices Last Price

Exchange Rate (per USD) Last Price

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DISCLAIMER: Analyst Certification: The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or

Equity Research│22 September 2020

Research Team

Suria Dharma Head of Equity Research, Strategy, Banking,

Consumer (Staple) [email protected] +6221 2854 8148

Ahmad Mikail Zaini Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396

William Mamudi, CMT Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382

Yosua Zisokhi Cement , Cigarette,Paper, Plantation,Telco

Infra, Chemical [email protected] +6221 2854 8387

Dessy Lapagu Aviation, Coal, Metal [email protected] +6221 2854 8392

Selvi Ocktaviani Automotive,Construction, Mining Cont.,

Precast,Telco, Toll Roads [email protected] +6221 2854 8393 Ilham Akbar Healthcare, Ind. Estate, Property,Oil & Gas [email protected] +6221 2854 8144

Nashrullah Putra Media, Poultry [email protected] +6221 2854 8144

Calista Muskitta Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8331

Private Wealth Management

Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380

Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399

Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395

Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325

Gitta Wahyu Retnani Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8365

Equity Sales Team

Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150

Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146

Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173

Fixed Income Sales Team

R. Virine Tresna Sundari Head of Fixed Income [email protected] +6221 2854 8170

Rudianto Nugroho Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8306

Teguh Suwarno Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8384

Sany Rizal Keliobas Fixed Income Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8337

Online Trading Sales Team

Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129

Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371