Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Construction sector contributes the third highest to Indonesia economy
Source: : BPS, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
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Hope on construction spending
Role of construction in Indonesia’s economy
Infrastructure spending in Indonesia’s state budget (Anggaran Pendapatan dan Belanja Negara; APBN) covers the construction of projects aimed at improving: 1) transportation/connectivity (e.g., dams, roads, toll roads and bridges); and 2) access to electricity (e.g., power plants). The construction component value of Indonesia’s economy increased from IDR728.2tr in 2012 to IDR925.1tr last year, registering average annual growth of 6%. During the same period, the contribution of construction to total gross domestic product (GDP) increased from 9.4% to 10.4%. Notably, last year, construction was the third-greatest contributor to Indonesia’s economy, trailing only processing industry (21.0%) and agriculture, forestry, and fisheries (13.5%).
According to this year’s APBN, the government is targeting 7.9% YoY growth for the value of the construction sector, the highest level in five years. In our view, increased construction spending will positively affect purchasing power. First and foremost, it will lead to an increase in construction-related job creation. Second, improved connectivity (e.g., more extensive transportation networks) will improve consumers’ access to goods (via cheaper and smoother distribution), which will, in the longer term, ensure greater price efficiency. Third, improved distribution will have a positive impact on the inflation rate. We believe that these factors will support the government’s efforts to reduce the poverty rate to its target level 10.5% this year.
Challenges
This year, tax revenue is expected to be IDR1,498.9tr or 86% of total revenue in APBN. At the same time, tax revenue realization rate had been below 100% in the recent years, or at the average rate of 90% during 2012-2016. We estimate that a 10% shortfall in 2017 would delay IDR128tr worth of construction projects, negatively affecting many industries (the consumer sector in particular). On a positive note, the government is gearing up to increase tax revenue via expansion of the tax base and policy/administrative reforms.
Market Index
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
JCI 5,372.7 0.3 1.3 15.0
MSCI Indonesia 24.8 0.6 1.6 13.2
MSCI EM 952.1 0.1 5.4 27.7
HANG SENG 24,114.9 -0.4 5.5 26.1
KOSPI 2,107.6 -0.1 2.0 10.2
FTSE 7,271.4 -0.4 2.1 24.5
DJIA 20,810.3 0.2 4.3 26.0
NASDAQ 5,835.5 -0.4 4.6 29.0
Valuation
2017F P/E (x) P/B (x) ROE (%)
JCI 15.6 2.3 17.9
Key Rates
Last Trade Chg (bps) MoM YoY
BI 7-Day RR 4.75 0 0 -50*
3yr 7.20 -1 8 -54
10yr 7.57 -1 6 -72
*since introduced in Aug 2016
FX
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
USD/IDR 13,351.00 -0.1 0.0 -0.4
USD/KRW 1,137.47 -0.4 -2.4 -7.8
USD/JPY 112.61 -0.6 -1.0 0.4
USD/CNY 6.87 -0.1 0.4 5.4
Commodities
Last Trade Chg (%) MoM YoY
WTI 54.5 1.6 1.1 32.1
Gold 1,249.6 1.0 3.4 1.7
Coal 79.8 -0.2 -4.6 58.6
Palm Oil 705.0 0.0 5.0 21.3
Rubber 204.0 0.0 2.7 106.0
Nickel 10,810.0 -0.4 11.3 25.6
Copper 6,040.0 -0.3 4.2 30.0
Tin 18,780.0 -2.8 -4.0 20.6
JCI Index VS MSCI Emerging Markets
650 800 950 1,100
3,500 4,500 5,500
04/13 01/14 10/14 07/15 04/16 01/17
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
800 950 1,100
4,500 5,500
(pt) JCI MSCI EM (pt)
Local flash
INCO: 2016, Laba bersih Vale Indonesia turun ke US$1,91 juta vs US$50,5 juta pada tahun 2015. Pada tahun 2016, Vale Indonesia membukukan laba bersih sebesar US$1,91 juta dari US$50,5 juta pada 2015. Pendapatan menurun ke US$584,1 juta pada tahun 2016, dari US$789,7 juta di tahun sebelumnya, Perusahaan mengekspektasikan harga nikel pada 2017 akan tetap rendah mengingat tingkat persediaan yang tinggi di London Metal Exchange dan Shanghai Futures Exchange.
(Bloomberg)
SSIA: Capex Surya Semesta meningkat 15%. PT Surya Semesta Internusa Tbk (SSIA) menganggarkan belanja modal atau capital expenditure (capex) tahun ini sebesar Rp 1,5 triliun. Angka tersebut meningkat sekitar 15% dibanding anggaran tahun lalu. Head of Investor SSIA Erlin Budiman menjelaskan, sebagian besar capex akan dialokasikan untuk bisnis kawasan industrinya. Sementara, sisanya akan digunakan untuk proyek yang juga tengah dikerjakan saat ini, renovasi Gran Melia di bilangan Jalan Rasuna Said, Kuningan, Jakarta.SSIA akan menjadikan kompleks itu menjadi kawasan mixed used.
(Kontan)
BUMI: BUMI kantongi laba US$ 100,6 juta pada 2016. Bumi Resources Tbk (BUMI) mencatat laba bersih tahun buku 2016 sebesar US$ 100,6 juta setelah mencatatkan rugi pada tahun sebelumnya hingga mencapai US$ 2 miliar . Presiden Direktur Ari Saptari Hudaya mengatakan, kinerja positif itu didukung dari beberapa strategi yang sudah diterapkan perseroan, salah satunya adalah dengan menekan biaya beban produksi. (Kontan)
WIKA: Hingga Februari 2017, WIKA Kantongi 21,71% Target Kontrak Baru. Hingga Februari 2017, kontrak baru yang berhasil dikantongi PT Wijaya Karya Persero Tbk.
(WIKA) mencapai Rp9,389 triliun atau telah mencapai 21,71% dari target kontrak baru di tahun 2017 sebesar Rp43,245 triliun. Adapun, bila dibandingkan dengan periode yang sama tahun lalu, nilai kontrak tersebut naik 336,61%. (Bisnis Indonesia)
SMGR: Semen Indonesia guyur semen ke pasar ekspor. PT Semen Indonesia Tbk menargetkan volume ekspor 1 juta semen pada tahun ini. Target tersebut hampir dua kali lipat ketimbang realisasi ekspor tahun lalu, yakni 599.510 ton semen. Salah satu anak perusahaan yang menjalankan tugas ekspor adalah PT Semen Padang di Indarung, Sumatera Barat. Kebetulan kapasitas produksi perusahaan itu juga meningkat mulai Desember 2016. Beroperasinya pabrik Indarung VI membikin kapasitas produksi Semen Padang yang semula 4,4 juta ton semen per tahun, menjadi 7,4 juta ton semen per tahun. (Kontan)
MEDC: MEDC melalui anak usaha memperpanjang kontrak pasokan gas ke KOPI.
Medco Energi Internasional Tbk (MEDC) meningkatkan pasokan gas ke anak usaha PT Mitra Energi Persada Tbk (KOPI). Selain itu, kedua perusahaan juga menambah durasi kontrak jual beli gas. Berdasarkan keterbukaan informasi yang dipublikasikan di Bursa Efek Indonesia (BEI) mengungkapkan anak usaha MEDC, PT Medco E&P Indonesia akan menambah alokasi dan pemanfaatan gas yang semula 3,7 miliar brithish thermal unit per hari (BBTUD) menjadi 5 miliar BBTUD ke anak usaha KOPI, PT Mitra Energi Buana.
(Britama)
BVIC: Bank Victoria bakal rilis obligasi Rp 1 triliun. PT Bank Victoria International Tbk akan merilis surat utang sebesar Rp 1 triliun hingga tahun 2020 mendatang.
Technical analysis
Tasrul +62-21-515-1140 [email protected]
Jakarta Composite Index (JCI) – Tendency to Rise
Summary
Item Data Item Data
Close (Feb 23, 2017) 5,372.8 (+0.3%) Trading range 5,361-5,400 Average index performance (%) 5.70 Target
Period 374 - Daily 5,386
r-squared 0.8464 - Weekly 5,428
Volatility (+/-, %) 0.49 - Monthly 5,436 Volatility (+/-, point) 26.1 Stop loss 5,361 Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 1. Daily trend - Uptrend
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com Optimization Trading System - ©2010
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,400 5,361
^JKSE - Daily 2/23/2017 Open 5348.36, Hi 5373.64, Lo 5347.86, Close 5372.75 (0.3%) Upper Band = 5,720.42, Channel_prd = 5,511.22, Lower Band = 5,302.03, VWAP = 5,369.59, VWAP = 5,339.14, VWAP
5,372.75 5,369.59 5,339.14 5,326.95 5,302.03 5,511.22 5,720.42
Oct Nov Dec 2016 Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2017 Feb
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 0.00, Avg.Volume = 15,890,063,360.00
0.00000 15,890,063,360
Figure 2. Daily MFI optimized & RSI optimized
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Figure 3. Daily, target : 5,386 Figure 4. Weekly, target : 5,428 Figure 5. Monthly,target : 5,436
x
Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research Source: Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Research
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis softw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - MFI Smoothed = 7.71
7.71352
^JKSE - RSI Smoothed = 67.81
67.8102
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010 Optimization Trading System - ©2010
5,400
5,361
^JKSE - Daily 2/23/2017 Open 5348.36, Hi 5373.64, Lo 5347.86, Close 5372.75 (0.3%) VWAP = 5,326.95, VWAP = 5,369.59, VWAP = 5,339.14
5,372.75 5,369.59 5,339.14 5,326.95
19 26 Oct 10 17 24 31Nov 7 14 21 28 Dec 13 19 27 2017 9 16 23 30 Feb 6 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 0.00, Avg.Volume = 15,890,063,360.00
0.00000 15,890,063,360
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Daily 2/23/2017 Open 5348.36, Hi 5373.64, Lo 5347.86,
5,372.75 5,360.65 5,347.59 5,334.53 5,321.47 5,308.42 5,373.71 5,386.77 5,399.83 5,412.89
16 23 30 Feb 13 20
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 0.00, Avg.Volume = 15,890,063,360.00
0.00000 15,890,063,360
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Weekly 2/23/2017 Open 5358.55, Hi 5375.7, Lo 5331.43,
5,372.75 5,359.61 5,325.35 5,291.09 5,256.83 5,222.57 5,393.87 5,428.12 5,462.38 5,496.64
Jul Oct 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010
^JKSE - Volume = 52,432,183,296.00, Avg.Volume = 61,179,957,248.00
52,432,183,296 61,179,957,248
Created w ith AmiBroker - advanced charting and technical analysis sof tw are. http://w w w .amibroker.com
^JKSE - Monthly 2/23/2017 Open 5319.94, Hi 5418.38, Lo
5,372.75 5,357.14 5,277.58 5,198.01 5,118.45 5,038.88 5,436.71 5,516.27 5,595.84 5,675.4
2014 2015 2016 2017
Optimization Trading System - ©2010 - Powered by AMTA
^JKSE - Volume = 297,121,677,312.00, Avg.Volume = 158,062,100,480.00297,121,677,312
158,062,100,480
Chart 6. JCI Vs. USD/IDR Chart 7. JCI performance (absolute vs. relative)
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Note: Relative to MSCI EM Index
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 8. Foreigner’s net purchase (EM) Chart 9. Energy price
Note: The latest figure for India are Feb 22nd, 2017
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia
Chart 10. Non-ferrous metal price Chart 11. Precious metal price
Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia Source: Bloomberg, Mirae Asset Sekuritas Indonesia 12,800
13,000 13,200 13,400 13,600 13,800 14,000
4,300 4,500 4,700 4,900 5,100 5,300 5,500
11/24 12/22 1/19 2/16
(IDR)
(pt) JCI (L) USD/IDR (R)
0.3
-0.1
1.5
15.4
0.1
-0.8
-4.0
-12.5 -16
-12 -8 -4 0 4 8 12 16 20
1D 1W 1M 1Y
Absolute Relative (%, %p)
0
166
-18
2 17 38
589 613
-89
55
-23
957
-200 0 200 400 600 800 1,000 1,200
Korea Taiwan Indonesia Thailand Philippines India
1 Day 5 Days
(USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn) (USDmn)
60 70 80 90 100 110 120
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
CPO WTI Coal
(
( (D-3M=100)
70 75 80 85 90 95 100 105 110
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
(D-3M=100) Copper Nickel Tin
( ( ( (
80 85 90 95 100 105 110 115
11/16 12/16 12/16 1/17 1/17 2/17 2/17
Silver Gold Platinum
Table. Key valuation metrics
Company Name Ticker
Price Market Cap Price Performance (%) P/E(X)* P/B(X)* ROE(%)*
(IDR) (IDRbn) 1D 1W 1M 1Y FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17 FY16 FY17
Jakarta Composite Index JCI 5,373 5,850,022 0.3 -0.1 2.3 15.4 15.6 13.6 2.3 2.1 17.9 16.0
FINANCIALS
Bank Central Asia BBCA 15,500 382,153 0.0 0.0 3.0 18.3 17.0 15.0 3.0 2.6 18.9 18.5
Bank Mandiri Persero BMRI 11,150 260,167 -1.3 -0.4 1.6 20.5 19.6 12.7 1.8 1.6 10.3 13.0
Bank Rakyat Indonesia Persero BBRI 11,925 294,180 -0.6 -0.6 1.1 12.5 10.9 10.5 1.9 1.8 20.2 18.6
Bank Negara Indonesia Persero BBNI 6,325 117,953 0.8 2.0 14.5 27.6 9.1 9.0 1.2 1.2 13.9 14.4
Bank Tabungan Negara Persero BBTN 2,210 23,404 -1.3 5.7 16.6 52.4 12.9 11.2 1.2 1.1 10.1 10.6
CONSUMER
HM Sampoerna HMSP 3,890 452,477 1.0 0.5 0.8 -8.7 34.2 31.0 12.5 11.5 37.0 38.5
Gudang Garam GGRM 63,125 121,458 1.5 3.5 -0.6 -4.5 16.0 14.0 2.7 2.4 17.8 18.0
Indofood CBP Sukses Makmur ICBP 8,300 96,794 0.6 -1.2 -1.8 8.7 23.9 21.5 4.9 4.5 21.7 21.9
Indofood Sukses Makmur INDF 8,075 70,902 -0.6 0.9 -0.3 19.2 16.0 14.1 2.2 2.0 14.1 15.0
Kalbe Farma KLBF 1,495 70,078 0.0 0.7 1.7 14.1 27.5 24.5 5.2 4.8 20.0 20.4
Unilever Indonesia UNVR 42,250 322,368 -1.5 -0.8 2.5 -0.5 44.7 39.5 55.7 52.0 131.0 138.5
AGRICULTURAL
Astra Agro Lestari AALI 14,700 28,293 -0.5 -5.8 -8.7 -9.6 15.0 13.2 1.6 1.5 11.2 11.8
PP London Sumatera Indonesia LSIP 1,500 10,234 -0.7 -6.3 -10.4 9.5 13.3 11.5 1.3 1.2 9.8 10.6
Sawit Sumbermas Sarana SSMS 1,500 14,288 -2.0 -8.8 -5.7 -22.1 20.4 16.3 3.6 3.1 17.5 18.8
INFRASTRUCTURE
XL Axiata EXCL 3,240 34,629 3.5 2.9 23.2 -13.6 60.8 81.1 1.2 1.6 2.1 1.5
Jasa Marga JSMR 4,960 35,999 4.9 4.2 19.5 -8.4 15.6 19.5 2.3 2.4 15.7 12.3
Perusahaan Gas Negara PGAS 2,840 68,846 5.6 0.4 10.1 7.6 11.8 11.2 1.5 1.3 12.8 12.5
Tower Bersama Infrastructure TBIG 5,250 23,790 -0.5 -3.7 5.0 -8.7 18.5 15.8 7.5 5.4 47.1 39.3
Telekomunikasi Indonesia TLKM 3,840 387,072 -1.0 -0.8 0.0 19.8 16.6 15.1 4.0 3.6 24.1 24.4
Soechi Lines SOCI 280 1,977 -3.4 -6.7 -11.4 -37.1 3.5 N/A N/A N/A 11.3 N/A
Garuda Indonesia GIAA 340 8,801 1.2 -4.5 0.6 -11.9 20.7 14.7 2.5 2.3 11.7 15.1
BASIC-INDUSTRIES
Semen Indonesia SMGR 9,250 54,867 0.3 -2.6 7.6 -8.4 12.0 13.5 1.9 1.8 16.3 13.6
Charoen Pokphand Indonesia CPIN 3,080 50,506 -3.1 -12.0 -0.6 -2.8 14.7 12.1 2.9 2.5 21.2 21.5
Indocement Tunggal Prakarsa INTP 15,675 57,703 0.2 0.3 6.1 -17.6 15.7 14.7 2.1 1.9 13.5 14.1
Japfa Comfeed Indonesia JPFA 1,730 19,740 -7.7 -7.5 8.5 119.0 10.3 8.3 2.0 1.6 21.2 20.4
MINING
Indo Tambangraya Megah ITMG 16,700 18,870 2.3 9.2 10.4 187.9 8.6 8.2 1.5 1.5 17.0 17.1
Adaro Energy ADRO 1,715 54,856 0.6 0.9 -0.6 188.2 11.7 11.7 1.2 1.1 9.4 10.4
Aneka Tambang ANTM 785 18,864 0.0 -1.9 -9.2 118.1 38.2 17.4 1.0 1.0 2.5 5.2
Vale Indonesia INCO 2,590 25,735 -3.0 -5.8 14.1 69.8 38.8 24.2 1.0 1.0 2.6 4.3
Tambang Batubara Bukit Asam PTBA 11,300 26,037 0.9 5.1 -3.4 117.3 9.6 9.2 2.1 1.9 21.0 20.3
TRADE
United Tractors UNTR 24,650 91,948 1.1 3.5 12.2 64.1 16.2 14.9 2.1 1.9 13.3 13.4
AKR Corporindo AKRA 6,600 26,346 3.9 1.1 -2.2 -8.7 20.5 17.9 3.4 3.1 17.4 17.8
Global Mediacom BMTR 510 7,241 -3.8 -9.7 -19.0 -34.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A
Matahari Department Store LPPF 14,975 43,696 1.5 1.2 0.7 -7.8 18.0 16.0 15.3 11.6 96.6 80.9
Media Nusantara Citra MNCN 1,535 21,914 -0.6 0.7 -10.5 -7.3 11.7 10.4 2.0 1.8 17.3 17.8
Matahari Putra Prima MPPA 1,205 6,480 -1.2 -2.8 -13.6 -30.9 33.4 26.9 2.3 2.2 6.3 7.9
Surya Citra Media SCMA 3,120 45,619 6.5 9.5 19.1 14.9 25.2 21.9 11.0 9.6 46.9 46.9
Siloam International Hospital SILO 13,500 17,558 3.8 -1.8 11.6 71.5 112.0 70.6 6.4 5.9 5.4 6.1
PROPERTY
Bumi Serpong Damai BSDE 1,910 36,761 0.3 0.5 5.8 15.1 15.1 13.9 1.6 1.4 10.6 10.8
Adhi Karya ADHI 2,210 7,869 2.3 -1.3 4.7 -12.0 23.6 12.7 1.4 1.2 5.9 10.5
Alam Sutera Realty ASRI 380 7,467 0.5 -2.1 -3.1 11.4 8.8 6.5 1.0 0.9 10.9 12.7
Ciputra Development CTRA 1,375 25,520 -0.7 -1.1 7.4 4.0 17.4 14.4 2.0 1.8 12.5 13.0
Lippo Karawaci LPKR 765 17,654 -0.6 0.0 4.8 -24.6 15.3 13.7 0.9 0.9 6.6 6.9
Pembangunan Perumahan PTPP 3,510 21,762 -0.8 -4.6 -0.3 0.1 23.1 15.4 2.4 2.1 14.4 17.1
Pakuwon Jati PWON 605 29,137 1.7 4.3 3.4 34.4 14.1 11.6 2.8 2.3 20.5 20.9
Summarecon Agung SMRA 1,400 20,197 -1.8 -0.4 4.1 -10.3 39.7 30.7 3.0 2.8 7.6 9.6
Wijaya Karya WIKA 2,530 22,694 2.0 0.8 3.3 5.1 14.9 18.9 3.7 1.9 15.1 11.9
Sector performance Top 10 market cap performance
Name Index Chg (%) Ticker Price Market Cap (IDRbn) Chg (%)
Agricultural 1,830.2 -0.2 CTRS IJ 2710 5,510 N/A
Mining 1,430.6 0.7 AGRO IJ 975 14,943 25.00
Basic-Industry 560.4 -0.7 MCOR IJ 328 5,455 14.69
Miscellaneous Industry 1,351.5 1.0 GEMS IJ 2950 17,353 13.03
Consumer Goods 2,360.5 0.2 SCMA IJ 3120 45,619 6.5
Property & Construction 519.5 -0.1 PGAS IJ 2840 68,846 5.58
Infrastructure 1,065.4 0.5 NISP IJ 1875 21,511 5.34
Finance 830.2 0.0 NIKL IJ 2030 5,122 5.18
Trade 865.0 1.1 JSMR IJ 4960 35,999 4.9
Composite 5,372.7 0.3 MEDC IJ 2630 8,764 4.78
Source: Bloomberg
Top 5 leading movers Top 5 lagging movers
Name Chg (%) Close Name Chg (%) Close
HMSP IJ 1.0 3,890 UNVR IJ -1.5 42,250
PGAS IJ 5.6 2,840 TLKM IJ -1.0 3,840
ASII IJ 0.9 8,050 BMRI IJ -1.3 11,150
AGRO IJ 25.0 975 BBRI IJ -0.6 11,925
SCMA IJ 6.5 3,120 JPFA IJ -7.7 1,730
Source: Bloomberg
Economic Calendar
Time Currency Detail Forecast Previous
4:30am GBP BBA Mortgage Approvals 41.9K 43.2K
8:30am CAD CPI m/m 0.3% -0.2%
8:30am CAD Median CPI y/y 2.0%
8:30am CAD Trimmed CPI y/y 1.6%
8:30am CAD Core CPI m/m -0.1% -0.3%
10:00am USD New Home Sales 575K 536K
10:00am USD Revised UoM Consumer Sentiment 96.1 95.7
10:00am USD Revised UoM Inflation Expectations 2.8%
Note: Time is based on Indonesian local time Source: Forex Factory
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