9 JUNE 2015
Indonesia LTFLC - Rating
S & P BB+
Moody's Baa3
Fitch
BBB-Key Market Indicators as of 08-Jun-15
BI Rate 7.50%
JCI Index 5,015
IDR 13,385
Inflation(y-o-y) - May-15 7.15%
Domestic Bonds Outstanding Gov't Bonds as of 05-Jun-15 Corp Bonds as of 04-Jun-15 Previous Week Trading Volume Government Bonds
Corporate Bonds
Benchmark Yield as of 08-Jun-15
FR0069 (5 year) 8.403%
FR0070 (10 year) 8.711%
FR0071 (15 year) 8.904%
FR0068 (20 year) 8.888%
Source : Bloomberg, Mid YTM
Government Bonds Indices as of 08-Jun-15 Price Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDPR) 119.80 Yield Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDYD) 8.70% TR Index (Bloomberg : DGBIIDTR) 411.79
Calendar of Event 11-Jun-15
US Initital Jobless Claim SA (Survey : 275K; Prior : 276K) 15-Jun-15
Indonesia Trade Balance (Survey : NA; Prior : $454M)
Analysts Rifki Rizal (62 21)29555777 ext 3404 [email protected] Amir A. Dalimunthe (62 21)29555777 ext 3405 [email protected] IDR 1.82tn IDR 1,340.8tn IDR 232.8tn IDR 35.30tn
Waiting for the New Benchmark Series
Keeping the Pace
The Bond market came under pressure last week. The Danareksa Government Bonds Yield Index ended the week at 8.5%, up 35bps over the week, recording a loss of 2.22%. Foreign ownership stood at IDR516.46 trillion last Wednesday, an all-time high in nominal terms. Although foreign investor holdings keep setting new highs, their holdings have been maintained in proportional terms. Over the last month, the average proportion of foreign holdings in Government bonds reached 38.37% with a minimum proportion of 37.93% and maximum proportion of 38.73%, respectively. Meanwhile, domestic bank ownership rose IDR4.38 trillion to IDR374.47 trillion (or 27.93% of the total amount outstanding) last week.
Benchmark Regeneration
The Government decided to reopen FR0053 (maturing on 15 July 2021) at this week’s auction. This could encourage investors to speculate on a replacement for other benchmark series. FR0053 was a former 10-year benchmark in 2011 along with FR0055, FR0056 and FR0054. If the Government will reuse former benchmarks, here is a list of bonds that have a good chance of being named benchmarks in the future:
Mengatur Langkah
Pasar obligasi masih tertekan selama sepekan terakhir. Danareksa Government Bond Yield
Index menutup minggu lalu pada level 8,5%,
naik 35bps dari minggu sebelumnya, sekaligus mencatatkan loss sebesar 2,22%. Di sisi lain, kepemilikan asing mencapai nominal tertinggi pada Rabu minggu lalu sebesar Rp516,46 triliun atau 38,54% dari total
outstanding obligasi Pemerintah. Walaupun
asing terus mencatatkan rekor tertinggi, namun secara proporsi terlihat bahwa investor asing menjaga proporsi kepemilikannya. Selama satu bulan terakhir, rata-rata porsi kepemilikan asing di obligasi Pemerintah sebesar 38,37% dengan proporsi terkecil dan terbesar masing-masing sebesar 37,93% dan 38,73%. Sementara itu, kepemilikan bank domestik selama minggu lalu naik Rp4,38 triliun menjadi Rp374,47 triliun (atau 27,93% dari total outstanding)
Regenerasi Benchmark
Pada lelang minggu ini, Pemerintah memutuskan untuk menggunakan obligasi seri FR0053, jatuh tempo pada 15 Juli 2021. Hal ini dapat menimbulkan spekulasi investor terhadap calon pengganti seri benchmark lainnya. Seri FR0053 merupakan mantan
benchmark 10-tahun pada tahun 2011 bersama seri FR0055, FR0056 dan FR0054. Jika Pemerintah secara konsisten menggunakan
ex benchmark, berikut daftar seri obligasi yang
berpotensi sebagai benchmark berikutnya :
Series Issue Date Maturity Date Coupon TTM Yield as of 8 Jun 2015
FR0053 8-Jul-10 15-Jul-21 8.25 6.10 8.569 FR0070 29-Aug-13 15-Mar-24 8.375 8.77 8.711 FR0040 21-Sep-06 15-Sep-25 11 10.27 8.795 FR0037 18-May-06 15-Sep-26 12 11.27 8.833 FR0056 23-Sep-10 15-Sep-26 8.375 11.27 8.82 FR0071 12-Sep-13 15-Mar-29 9 13.77 8.904 FR0052 20-Aug-09 15-Aug-30 10.5 15.19 8.921 FR0054 22-Jul-10 15-Jul-31 9.5 16.10 8.946 FR0068 1-Aug-13 15-Mar-34 8.375 18.77 8.888 FR0045 24-May-07 15-May-37 9.75 21.94 9.056 FR0050 24-Jan-08 15-Jul-38 10.5 23.10 9.073
Secara historis, dampak lain dari pergantian
benchmark ialah tekanan jual yang terjadi di
pasar sekunder. Pada Exhibit 2 terlihat bahwa likuiditas seri benchmark lama semakin turun seiring dengan meningkatnya likuiditas seri
benchmark baru. Pergantian seri benchmark
sedikit banyaknya berpengaruh terhadap pergerakan indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah. Hal tersebut terjadi karena tekanan jual
benchmark lama yang berpotensi menyebabkan peningkatan pada indeks yield obligasi Pemerintah.
Supply Surat Berharga Negara
Target penerbitan lelang obligasi Pemerintah pada kuartal II tahun 2015 mencapai Rp93,5 triliun. Sedangkan jumlah obligasi yang telah diterbitkan dari awal April hingga minggu lalu mencapai Rp51,1 triliun atau telah tercapai 54,65% dari target penerbitan. Dengan kata lain, Pemerintah harus mencukupi sisa target sebesar Rp42,4 triliun di 4 lelang terakhir (termasuk lelang minggu ini) pada 2Q15. Selain itu, Pemerintah telah menyatakan Historically, another impact of
benchmark replacement is selling pressure in the secondary market. In Exhibit 2 it can be seen that the liquidity of the old benchmark fell gradually as the liquidity of the new benchmark increased. Regeneration of a benchmark series somewhat affects Government bonds yield index movements. This is due to selling pressure on the old benchmark which may potentially lead to an increase in the government bonds yield index.
Government Securities Supply The targeted issuance of government bonds in the second quarter of 2015 is IDR93.5 trillion. Since the beginning of April until last week, the total issuance of government bonds already reached IDR51.1 trillion (54.65% of the total initial target). In other words, the government has to complete the remainder of the target of IDR42.4 trillion in the last 4 auctions (including this week) of 2Q15. In
Source: Danareksa Estimates
Source: IDX 0.00 1.00 2.00 3.00 4.00 5.00 6.00 7.00 8.00 9.00 10.00 0 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 Jan -1 1 Ma r-1 1 Ma y-1 1 Ju l-11 Se p-11 No v-11 Jan -1 2 Ma r-1 2 Ma y-1 2 Ju l-12 Se p-12 No v-12 Jan -1 3 Ma r-1 3 Ma y-1 3 Ju l-13 Se p-13 No v-13 Jan -1 4 Ma r-1 4 Ma y-1 4 Ju l-14 Se p-14 No v-14 Jan -1 5 Ma r-1 5 Ma y-1 5 ID R Billion FR0053 FR0061 FR0063 FR0070 Yield Index (RHS)
5-Jun-15 15-Jun-15 9.50 0.02 100.00 2.00 9.04 < 1yr
4-Jun-15 10-Jul-15 - 0.09 99.50 1.00 0.50 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 12-Aug-15 - 0.18 99.11 4.00 0.89 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 3-Sep-15 - 0.23 98.74 1.00 1.27 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 21-Sep-15 6.25 0.28 98.80 4.00 6.33 < 1yr
4-Jun-15 1-Oct-15 - 0.31 98.28 1.00 1.75 < 1yr
4-Jun-15 15-Oct-15 6.25 0.35 99.30 1.00 6.29 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 6-Nov-15 - 0.41 97.73 2.00 2.32 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 27-Feb-16 6.00 0.72 97.90 5.00 6.13 < 1yr
4-Jun-15 4-Mar-16 - 0.74 95.75 1.00 4.44 < 1yr
3-Jun-15 25-Mar-16 3.75 0.79 99.75 1.00 3.76 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-16 10.75 0.93 103.15 4.00 7.22 < 1yr
5-Jun-15 15-Jun-16 7.00 1.02 99.26 4.00 7.76 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Sep-16 7.38 1.27 99.85 1.00 7.49 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Oct-16 8.50 1.35 100.75 12.00 8.44 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 25-Oct-16 4.81 1.38 98.50 1.00 4.88 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 5-Mar-17 8.75 1.74 101.66 12.00 8.61 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Apr-17 6.25 1.85 97.30 13.00 7.83 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Jul-17 10.00 2.10 103.90 3.00 7.95 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Oct-17 8.50 2.35 99.90 13.00 8.51 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 11-Mar-18 8.25 2.76 100.00 31.00 8.25 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-18 5.25 2.93 92.50 5.00 8.17 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Sep-18 9.00 3.27 102.00 1.00 8.28 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Apr-19 7.88 3.85 98.80 39.00 8.24 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Sep-19 11.50 4.27 111.60 1.00 8.22 1yr - 5yr
5-Jun-15 15-Sep-20 8.25 5.27 99.25 1.00 8.42 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Nov-20 11.00 5.43 112.75 1.00 8.06 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Jun-21 12.80 6.02 120.35 2.00 8.42 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Jul-21 8.25 6.10 99.15 10.00 8.43 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-22 7.00 6.93 92.60 2.00 8.43 5yr - 10yr
4-Jun-15 15-Jun-22 12.90 7.02 124.75 1.00 8.20 5yr - 10yr
3-Jun-15 15-Jul-22 5.19 7.10 111.00 3.00 8.18 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-23 5.63 7.93 84.00 13.00 8.43 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Aug-23 11.75 8.18 119.20 3.00 8.45 5yr - 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Mar-24 8.38 8.77 99.50 72.00 8.45 5yr - 10yr
3-Jun-15 15-Sep-24 10.00 9.27 111.30 2.00 8.23 5yr - 10yr
4-Jun-15 15-Sep-25 11.00 10.27 116.87 3.00 8.50 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Sep-26 8.38 11.27 99.00 1.00 8.51 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-27 7.00 11.93 88.10 1.00 8.61 > 10yr
4-Jun-15 15-Feb-28 10.00 12.68 112.85 1.00 8.34 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-28 6.13 12.93 80.50 6.00 8.66 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Mar-29 9.00 13.77 104.50 30.00 8.44 > 10yr
3-Jun-15 15-Mar-30 10.25 14.77 114.36 6.00 8.52 > 10yr
1-Jun-15 15-Aug-30 10.50 15.18 118.25 4.00 8.36 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Jul-31 9.50 16.10 105.20 5.00 8.88 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Jun-32 8.25 17.02 99.00 16.00 8.36 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-33 6.63 17.93 80.00 2.00 8.87 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Mar-34 8.38 18.77 99.75 126.00 8.40 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Feb-37 6.10 21.68 72.15 5.00 9.05 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-May-41 9.50 25.93 105.99 2.00 8.90 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Apr-42 6.38 26.85 73.50 3.00 9.01 > 10yr
5-Jun-15 15-Feb-44 8.75 28.68 97.25 1.00 9.02 > 10yr
Last Trade Date Modified Duration -0.34 -24.48 150.00 3.14 404.00 -0.03 -1.70 1.82 -1,528.25 71.27 751.63 1,310.39 Freq Tenor Class -0.79 0.89 0.94 205.00 102.00 1,200.00 1.18 -1.33 -674.25 4.15 4.57 99.23 16.89 43.54 483.00 2.64 2.75 3.23 3.33 556.23 40.00 3,566.36 6.00 4.13 4.13 5.33 6.01 6.06 6.31 37.88 8,759.69 5.14 29.12 5.31 4.65 5.56 6.08 43.67 141.10 24.03 485.77 7.80 7.87 7.94 8.09 2,616.63 28.00 25.17 309.02 7.05 7.65 7.27 8.23 13.00 186.35 23.26 330.07 8.68 9.41 9.20 9.93 PBS004 252.57 256.92 4,683.70 15.00 9.91 10.52 9.98 FR0057 FR0062 FR0067 4.46 4.42 133.10 FR0052 FR0054 FR0058 FR0065 FR0068 FR0028 ORI011 SR007 FR0066 FR0048 FR0069 FR0036 PBS006 FR0031 FR0034 FR0053 FR0061 FR0035 FR0043 FR0063 FR0070 FR0044 FR0040 FR0056 FR0059 FR0047 FR0064 FR0071 IFR0006 Yield 530.59 798.01 1,203.16 Bonds FR0027 SPN12150710 SPN03150812 SPN12150903 SR005 SPN03150604 VR0022 FR0030 PBS008 FR0055 ORI010 VR0023 SR006 SPNS06112015
Maturity Coupon Tenor Vol (IDR
Bn) 337.08 SR004 SPN12151001 ORI009 142.96 1,142.08 1,087.70 Last Done Price 200.00 222.28 FR0060 FR0039
APPENDICES
Appendix 1. Government Bonds Trading 1 - 5 June 2015
4-Jun-15 9-Nov-15 9.00 0.42 idAA 100.15 17.00 8.99
5-Jun-15 16-Nov-15 10.68 0.44 idBBB+ 98.28 110.00 10.86
4-Jun-15 27-Nov-15 6.50 0.47 idAAA 99.25 100.00 6.55
4-Jun-15 9-Dec-15 9.00 0.50 idAAA 100.50 10.00 8.96
1-Jun-15 15-Dec-15 10.25 0.52 AA(idn) 99.00 0.03 10.35
3-Jun-15 9-Feb-16 10.20 0.67 idAA- 100.80 20.00 10.12
5-Jun-15 20-Feb-16 9.00 0.70 AA(idn) 100.70 85.00 8.94
4-Jun-15 1-Mar-16 7.85 0.73 idAAA 99.50 40.00 7.89
3-Jun-15 5-Mar-16 7.65 0.74 AA(idn) 99.64 9.00 7.68
3-Jun-15 29-Mar-16 9.88 0.81 A+(idn) 100.44 15.00 9.83
1-Jun-15 4-Apr-16 7.75 0.82 idAAA 99.32 20.00 7.80
3-Jun-15 11-Apr-16 8.60 0.84 AAA(idn) 100.10 1.50 8.59
5-Jun-15 8-May-16 8.25 0.91 idA 95.50 100.25 8.64
5-Jun-15 11-May-16 8.25 0.92 idA 95.50 1.00 8.64
3-Jun-15 12-May-16 10.40 0.93 idA 101.45 8.00 10.25
5-Jun-15 23-May-16 6.40 0.96 idAAA 98.15 115.00 6.52
4-Jun-15 17-Jun-16 9.90 1.02 idAA- 100.95 10.00 8.93
1-Jun-15 28-Jun-16 9.90 1.05 AA(idn) 100.90 125.00 9.01
5-Jun-15 25-Aug-16 11.00 1.21 idA 102.20 13.40 9.07
3-Jun-15 16-Dec-16 9.00 1.52 idAAA 100.00 150.00 9.00
3-Jun-15 23-Dec-16 8.30 1.54 idAAA 97.00 0.20 10.41
4-Jun-15 21-Feb-17 8.60 1.70 idAAA 94.50 29.50 12.21
4-Jun-15 8-May-17 11.00 1.91 idA 102.00 3.00 9.84
1-Jun-15 9-May-17 9.50 1.92 idAA- 96.42 3.00
-5-Jun-15 29-May-17 10.65 1.97 idAAA 102.52 18.00 9.24
5-Jun-15 31-May-17 7.25 1.98 idAA+ 96.52 0.40 9.19
5-Jun-15 19-Jun-17 8.75 2.03 idBBB- 93.00 7.00 12.70
4-Jun-15 21-Jun-17 10.25 2.03 idAA 102.50 14.00 8.90
3-Jun-15 3-Jul-17 0.00 2.07 idA 97.44 3.00
-1-Jun-15 4-Jul-17 9.25 2.07 idAA- 98.86 0.10 9.86
1-Jun-15 5-Jul-17 10.50 2.07 idA 92.72 150.00 14.59
1-Jun-15 10-Jul-17 10.40 2.09 idAAA 101.73 3.00 9.48
1-Jun-15 15-Aug-17 9.38 2.18 idA 99.90 24.00 9.42
4-Jun-15 29-Oct-17 10.50 2.39 idAAA 97.50 3.40 11.71
5-Jun-15 30-Oct-17 7.75 2.39 idAAA 97.74 2.00 8.80
3-Jun-15 9-Nov-17 10.50 2.42 idAA 101.32 52.00 9.88
1-Jun-15 5-Dec-17 11.25 2.49 AA(idn) 102.70 20.00 10.02
3-Jun-15 12-Dec-17 10.00 2.51 idAAA 101.55 25.00 9.30
3-Jun-15 21-Dec-17 8.40 2.53 idAA- 95.50 0.20 10.43
3-Jun-15 10-Feb-18 9.80 2.67 AA(idn) 100.50 2.00 9.58
5-Jun-15 1-Mar-18 8.90 2.73 idAAA 98.90 2.00 9.36
4-Jun-15 13-Mar-18 9.00 2.76 idAAA 99.50 50.00 9.21
4-Jun-15 15-Mar-18 8.50 2.77 idAA- 93.00 10.10 11.48
3-Jun-15 5-Apr-18 10.25 2.82 idA- 99.55 2.00 10.43
3-Jun-15 24-Apr-18 9.25 2.88 idAAA 100.00 50.00 9.25
5-Jun-15 8-May-18 11.50 2.91 idA 102.00 10.13 10.69
3-Jun-15 19-May-18 10.75 2.94 AA(idn) 102.65 16.00 9.71
3-Jun-15 19-Jun-18 8.25 3.03 AA+(idn) 95.00 1.00 10.18
1-Jun-15 27-Jun-18 9.25 3.05 idA 98.40 24.00 9.86
4-Jun-15 27-Sep-18 8.90 3.30 idAA 99.50 20.00 9.07
5-Jun-15 11-Dec-18 10.85 3.51 idA+ 102.00 53.00 10.17
5-Jun-15 11-Dec-18 10.85 3.51 idA+ 100.42 10.00 10.70
4-Jun-15 6-Mar-19 9.25 3.74 idA 93.14 44.00 11.53
3-Jun-15 9-May-19 8.50 3.92 idAA- 94.00 2.20 10.38
4-Jun-15 13-Jun-19 10.13 4.01 idAA+ 101.35 32.50 9.71
1-Jun-15 15-Jun-19 8.90 4.02 idAA+ 94.75 25.00 10.51
5-Jun-15 24-Jun-19 12.50 4.04 idA 102.50 0.15 11.71
1-Jun-15 27-Jun-19 8.63 4.05 idAAA 95.00 0.50 10.14
3-Jun-15 12-Dec-19 10.30 4.51 idAAA 101.00 0.60 10.02
4-Jun-15 19-Dec-19 12.50 4.53 idA 82.50 5.00 18.25
0.42
PNBN05 1.00
0.51 0.43 Rating Last Done
Price Yield Modified Duration Vol (IDR Bn) 0.65 0.47 0.49 0.68 0.71 BJBR07B 1.00 NISP01ACN2 1.00 ADMF02CCN1 1.00 0.71 0.77 0.80 0.81 BTPN01ACN3 2.00 BFIN02ACN2 2.00 FIFA01BCN2 2.00 BBIA01A 1.00 0.88 0.88 0.88 0.93 IMFI01BCN2 1.00 IMFI01CCN1 1.00 BSSB01B 4.00 BEXI01BCN3 4.00 0.96 0.99 1.13 1.39 BDKI06B 2.00 BTPN01BCN1 7.00 APLN01B 2.00 ADMF01CCN1 1.00 1.41 1.56 1.71 -BNGA01B 1.00 ASDF01CCN1 2.00 MFIN02BCN1 2.00 SMKMYOR02 3.00 1.77 1.82 1.79 1.80 ISAT05B 6.00 INDF06 1.00 IMAT01C 1.00 JMPD13R 1.00 -1.85 1.80 1.85 ADHISM1CN1 3.00 BSDE01BCN1 1.00 TBLA02 14.00 SIKPPLN01 3.00 1.96 2.07 2.15 2.11 APLN02 3.00 ASDF02BCN4 1.00 BNGA01BCN1 1.00 PNBN04SB 6.00 2.12 2.17 2.22 2.33 WOMF01BCN2 2.00 ISAT01ACN1 2.00 AKRA01A 1.00 NISP01CCN2 1.00 2.40 2.38 2.38 2.40 ADMF02DCN1 1.00 BEXI02BCN5 1.00 MEDC01CN2 1.00 SIAISA01 2.00 3.09 3.32 2.44 2.51 2.60 FIFA02BCN1 1.00 MFIN02CCN1 16.00 BNII01SB 1.00 BIIF02B 1.00 APLN01CN1 3.00 JSMR01CCN1S 1.00 SISMRA01CN1 10.00 SMRA01CN1 2.00 3.51 3.17 APLN01CN3 1.00 WOMF01ACN2 1.00 BBKP01SBCN1 11.00
Coupon Tenor Freq
Last Trade
DateBonds Maturity
ISAT08A 1.00 ISAT01BCN1 2.00 MYOR04 1.00 INDF07 3.00 BNLI01SBCN1 5.00 TAXI01 1.00 BWPT01 5.00 BEXI01BCN2 2.00 BDMN02B 2.00 2.49 3.03 3.26 2.60 2.79 2.83 2.82 3.21 3.26 Appendix 2. Corporate Bonds Trading 1 - 5 June 2015
4-Jun-15 19-Dec-19 12.50 4.53 idA 82.50 5.00 18.25
4-Jun-15 21-Dec-19 8.75 4.53 idAA- 91.00 0.50 11.31
5-Jun-15 13-Mar-20 9.50 4.76 idAAA 99.45 30.00 9.64
1-Jun-15 6-Jul-20 10.20 5.08 idAAA 101.30 40.00 9.87
4-Jun-15 23-Dec-20 10.85 5.54 AA(idn) 101.75 0.30 10.43
3-Jun-15 13-Jan-22 12.00 6.59 idBBB- 100.05 90.00 11.99
3-Jun-15 27-Jun-22 8.88 7.05 idAAA 89.25 0.25 11.09
4.06 Yield ISAT08B 1.00 3.17 3.58 3.72 3.89 4.97 BNGA02SB 1.00 BACA01SB 3.00 APLN01CN3 1.00 AKRA01B 1.00 BEXI02CCN5 1.00 TLKM02B 4.00 Modified Duration Last Trade
DateBonds Maturity Coupon Tenor Freq
Vol (IDR Bn) Rating Last Done
Price
4.45
APPENDICES
Source: Danareksa, BEI
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