NH Daily January 02 2019 (English)

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Morning Brief

modest growth in the global economy. Most of European and Asia markets were

bullish; so was the U.S. markets. On the other side, in 2018, the global markets

mostly dived.

Today’s Outlook: Digesting Initial Trading Day of 2019

Today, we estimate JCI to rally with the

support range of 6125

-

6150

and the

resistance range of 6235

-

6250

. The positive sentiment comes from statements

uttered by the Minister of Finance Sri Mulyani. She stated that the stated budget

(APBN) deficit in 2018 amounted to 1.72% of the GDP. The figure was smaller

than that of 2.19% stated in the laws of 2018 APBN. Besides, the state revenue

succeeded to hit its 100% target for the first time since Joko Widodo's

Administration. The Finance Minister Sri Mulyani will attend the first trading day

of 2019 on IDX.

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Stocks Recommendation

AALI

Last = 11825

Analysis

India's authorities lowered the tariffs imposed

on CPO's derivative products imported from

ASEAN countries. The decrease is expected to

boost the demand for CPO and the hike CPO

imported by India as the world's biggest CPO

consumer.

Range

11350 – 12500

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 11350

BBRI

Last = 3660

Analysis

The credit distribution is expected to be rosier

at 15% to IDR853.9 trillion, deriving from the

micro

-

segment posting the hike of 17.5%. In

fact, the SMEs segment posted the increment

of 21,4%. The fast credit growth is the potent

driver for BBRI to enjoy the double

-

digit

growth.

Range

3600 – 3720

Action

Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 3600

BMRI

Last = 7375

Analysis

In 2019, BMRI's credit distribution is

estimated to be flat at 11%; thus, it will boost

the non

-

corporate segment, mainly the micro

and consumer segments. It is estimated that

the growth in interest incomes will be rosier

along with the discontinued decline in loan

yield.

Range

7200 – 7650

Action

Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 7200

Source: Bloomberg

Sector Rotation

Source: Bloomberg

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Company News

Domestic & Global News

BI Posted that Rupiah Hit Hardest at 5.7% in 2018

Bank Indonesia (BI) announced that at the closing dated December 31st 2018, the rupiah exchange rate for USD was at

14.385. Thus, the rupiah was depreciated by 5.7% during 2018 from January to December. Overseeing the global backdrop

in 2018, the rupiah suffered from the global economic volatilities as it hit hardest in October 2018 when the rupiah hit the

level of 15,300. (Kontan)

Xi Urges Trump To Cooperate

Chinese President Xi Jinping told U.S. President Donald Trump on Tuesday that history showed cooperation was the best

way forward for both the United States and China. In a congratulatory message to Trump, marking 40 years since the

establishment of diplomatic relations between the two countries, Xi said China

-

U.S. relations have experienced ups and

downs but have made historic progress over the past four decades. (CNBC)

SMCB

: Obtains Loan Facilities of EUR40 Million

SMCB obtained the loan facility amounting to EUR40

million, deriving from Holdervin BV, holding 80.6% of

SMCB's stocks. The loan facility has 2

-

year maturity and

coupon rate of 3.37%, above Euribor. The facility will be

spent on SMCB's operational needs. (Kontan)

PTBA

: Targets Distribution Capacity of 60 Million

Tons

PTBA targeted the distribution capacity of 60 million tons

in 2022 through the development 4 railways in Tanjung

Enim

-

based mine, South Sumatera. In 2H19, PTBA targets

the completion of two railways to Kertapati and Tarahan I

harbors. The construction underlined by PTBA's coal

production is highly dependent on the distribution

capacity from its mines to harbors. (Bisnis Indonesia)

CSAP

: Increases Capital Equity of Its Subsidiary

CSAP has increased the equity capital (from IDR200 billion

to IDR300 billion) injected to its subsidiary: PT Catur

Sentosa Anugerah. Besides, the paid

-

up capital also picked

up from IDR30 billion to IDR110 billion. The increment in

the capital injection was performed through a private

placement and aimed at expanding its businesses lines in

consumer goods distribution and new product launches.

(Kontan)

HEAL

: Launches 4 New Hospitals in 2018

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Global Economic Calendar

Source: Bloomberg

Date

Country

_Jakarta

Hour

Event

Period

Actual

Consensus

Wednesday

CHN

08:45

Caixin China PMI Mfg

Dec

50.2

50.2 02 - Jan

GER

15:55

Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI

Dec F

51.5

51.5 EU

16:00

Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI

Dec F

51.4

51.4 UK

16:30

Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA

Dec

52.5

53.1 USA

21:45

Markit US Manufacturing PMI

Dec F

53.9

53.9 Thursday

EU

16:00

M3 Money Supply YoY

Nov

3.80%

3.90%

03 - Jan

USA

19:00

MBA Mortgage Applications

28 -

Dec

--

USA

20:15

ADP Employment Change

Dec

180k

179k

USA

20:30

Initial Jobless Claims

29 -

Dec

--

216k

USA

22:00

ISM Manufacturing

Dec

58

59.3 Friday

JPN

07:30

Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg

Dec F

--

52.4

04 -

Jan

UK

14:00

Nationwide House Px NSA YoY

Dec

1.50%

1.90%

UK

14:00

Nationwide House PX MoM

Dec

0.10%

0.30%

GER

15:55

Unemployment Change (000's)

Dec

-

13k

-

16k

USA

20:30

Unemployment Rate

Dec

3.70%

USA

20:30

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Dec

180k

155k

Source: Bloomberg

Domestic Economic Calendar

Date

_Jakarta

Hour

Event

Period

Actual

Consensus

Prev.

Wednesday

07:30

Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg

Dec

6.71%

--

50.4 02 - Jan

11:00

CPI NSA MoM

Dec

8.23%

--

0.27%

11:00

CPI Core YoY

Dec

--

3.03%

11:00

CPI YoY

Dec

--

3.23%

Corporate Calendar

Date

Event

Company

Wednesday

IPO Listing Date

MYTX

02 - Jan

Thursday

Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting

BBRI

03 -

Nov

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