Morning Brief
The global markets were positive amid the subdued trade war tension. The U.S. markets closed on a high note after Apple’s stocks hiked higher than 2%. European markets ended mixed as ECB and BoE decided not to raise interest rate.
Today’s Outlook: The U.S. Inflation
We estimate JCI to rally further today with the support range of 5815-5820 and
resistance range of 5892-5906. The positive sentiment comes from the U.S.
inflation of August to be released last night. The U.S. inflation was at 0.2% m-m,
lower than the estimated inflation of 0.3% m-m. This backdrop indicates the
Fed’s less massive monetary tightening. The U.S. dollar depreciation results in appreciation of other economies’ currencies including rupiah.
Stocks Recommendation
BBRI Last = 3000
Analysis In July 2018, BBRI posted the growth of
16.49% y-y in credit. The growth topped the
initial planed growth of 12%.
Range 2950 – 3110
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 2950
UNTR Last = 32200
Analysis Amid the positive sentiment of the
government policy sets forth the increment in national coal production, UNTR has a very attractive valuation. Now, UNTR is traded at a
P/E of 12.7 x a steep lower than the 2-year
average P/E of 22.1x.
Range 31850 – 33500
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 31850
PTBA Last = 3970
Analysis The steep decline in PTBA’s stocks prices
within the last month has made its current valuation attractive. PTBA is traded at a P/E of
7.8x or lower than the last 5-year average P/E
of 10.3x.
Range 3940 – 4120
Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 3940
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Company News
Domestic & Global News
Macro Assumptions Set Forth in 2019's RAPBN
Discussion on the 2019’s State Budget Draft (RAPBN) has finally settled. On Thursday, 09/13/18, the government and XI Commission of the House of Representatives (DPR) agreed the macro assumptions set forth in the 2019’s RAPBN as follows: Economic growth of 5.3%; inflation of 3.5%; rupiah’s exchange rate for the U.S. dollar : IDR14,400 per USD; government bonds’ interest rate of 5.3%; unemployment rate of 4.8% to 5.2%; poverty level of 8.5% to 9.5%; GINI’s ratio of 0.038 to 0.039; and Human Development Index (IPM) of 71.98. (Kontan)
Trump Says There's No Pressure to Make China Trade Deal
Trump contended Thursday that he faces no pressure to strike a trade deal with China as Washington and Beijing exchange shots in a mounting trade conflict. The comment followed reports saying the U.S. is in the early stages of proposing a new round of trade talks with China. The two sides aim to strike an agreement and stop a trade war threatening to stifle growth in the world's two largest economies. (CNBC)
WSKT : Diversifies Its Projects Further
WSKT diversifies its projects by increasing the portion of
non-toll road project. The diversification aligns with
WSKT’s strategy to maintain its long-term growth. Thus,
WSKT through its subsidiary, PT Waskita Realty allocates the funds of IDR1 trillion spent on property construction near to the location of WSKT’s infrastructure project. (Bisnis Indonesia)
UNVR : Adds A New Food Product
UNVR adds a new product in its food and beverages (F&B) segment. The product is “Jawara” chili sauce. To maintain
necessary raw materials, it cooperates with 2 start-up
companies, while to undergo the production process, it cooperates with PT Sekar Laut Tbk. The lunch on a new product is performed after it sells off its spread business segment. (Kontan)
EXCL : Expands Its Business to Triple Play
EXCL expands its organic business to a triple-play service of
landline phones, high speed internet, and pay TV services. To date, it still evaluates and analyzes the strategy used to expand such business. Within 3 to 5 years next, it will take over or incorporate joint venture with pay TV company. (Bisnis Indonesia)
PTPP : Prepares Long-Term Investment
PTPP prepares a long-term investment plan in the next 5
Global Economic Calendar
Date Country Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Previous
Monday JPN 06:50 GDP SA QoQ 2Q F 0.70% 0.70% 0.50%
10 - Sep JPN 06:50 GDP Annualized SA QoQ 2Q F 3.00% 2.60% 1.90%
CHN 08:30 PPI YoY Aug 4.00% 4.00% 4.60%
CHN 08:30 CPI YoY Aug 2.10% 2.10% 2.10%
UK 15:30 Trade Balance Jul -£111 -£2050 -£1861
UK 15:30 Industrial Production MoM Jul 0.10% 0.20% 0.40%
UK 15:30 GDP (MoM) Jul 0.30% 0.20% 0.10%
Tuesday GER 16:00 ZEW Survey Current Situation Sep 76.0 71.6 72.6
11 - Sep GER 16:00 ZEW Survey Expectations Sep -10.6 -11.9 -13.7
Wednesday USA 19:30 PPI Final Demand MoM Aug -0.10% 0.20% 0.00%
12 - Sep
Thursday USA 01:00 U.S. Federal Reserve Releases Beige Book
13 - Sep JPN 06:50 PPI YoY Aug 3.00% 3.10% 3.10%
GER 13:00 CPI MoM Aug F 0.1% 0.10% 0.10%
GER 13:00 CPI YoY Aug F 2.00% 2.00% 2.00%
UK 18:00 Bank of England Bank Rate 13-Sep 0.75% 0.75% 0.75%
EU 18:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate 13-Sep 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%
EU 18:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility 13-Sep 0.25% 0.25% 0.25%
EU 18:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate 13-Sep -0.40% -0.40% -0.40%
USA 19:30 CPI MoM Aug 0.20% 0.30% 0.20%
USA 19:30 CPI YoY Aug 2.70% 2.80% 2.90%
USA 19:30 Initial Jobless Claims 8-Sep 204k -- 203k
Friday CHN 09:00 Retail Sales YoY Aug 8.80% 8.80%
14 - Sep CHN 09:00 Industrial Production YoY Aug 6.10% 6.00%
JPN 11:30 Industrial Production MoM Jul F -- -0.10%
USA 19:30 Retail Sales Advance MoM Aug 0.60% 0.50%
USA 20:15 Industrial Production MoM Aug 0.40% 0.10%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Domestic Economic Calendar
Date Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev.
Monday 15:10 Retail Sales YoY Jul 2.9% -- 2.3%
10 - Sep
Corporate Calendar
Date Event Company
Monday Annual Shareholder Meeting IKBI
10 - Sep Cum Stock Dividend Date BCAP (Adj. Factor 1.17)
Wednesday Annual Shareholder Meeting GIAA 12 - Sep
Friday Rights Listing Date AGRO
14 - Apr Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting HRTA
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