Morning Brief
million. Investors put their appreciation for the government’s concertedendeavor to control rupiah’s exchange rate. Top Gainers: Basic Industry
(+2.46%), Finance (+2.00%), Consumer (+1.99%)
The global markets lagged after the tech. sector recorded a steep loss. Meanwhile, investors keep a wary eye on the trade deal between the U.S. and Canada and the U.S. ahead stance of tariff imposed on China’s good. In fact, they had major concerns for the financial crisis sweeping emerging economies.
Today’s Outlook: : Global Trade War Spreads
We estimate that today JCI will lag with the support range of 5716-5728 and
resistance range of 5799-5807. The negative sentiment comes from the escalating tension of global trade war. President Trump stated that now the U.S. focuses on narrowing the trade balance deficit with Japan. Thus, the U.S. likely imposes the import tariff on Japan’s goods. The backdrop causes Asia markets to be sluggish this morning.
From the domestic outlook, investors keep their wary eyes on the August’s forex reserves declining by USD13.7 billion since hitting its highest level of USD132.0
-Stocks Recommendation
ANTM Last = 800
Analysis ANTM posted the 1H18’s net profit of
IDR344.5 billion in a stark contrast to the loss of IDR496.1 in the 1H17. Meanwhile, the sales soared by 292% from IDR3.01 trillion in the 1H17 to IDR11.8 trillion in the 1H18.
Range 790 – 840
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 790
BBNI Last = 7275
Analysis The trend of the decline in net interest margin
(NIM) in 2019 is estimated to end along with the massive benchmark rate hikes by Bank Indonesia.
Range 7150 – 7600
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 7150
AALI Last = 12975
Analysis Amid the positive sentiments of the B20
mandatory, AALI’s stocks prices rally by 27% a steep lower than the rally of 43% in LSIP’s stocks prices.
Range 12800 – 13745
Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 12800
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Company News
Domestic & Global News
August's CCI Is the Lowest Figures in 2018
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI) of Indonesia declined for two-consecutive month from July to August 2018. On
Thursday, 09/06/2018. Bank Indonesia (BI) released the August’s CCI of 121.6, lower than the July’s CCI of 124.8 and the lowest figures in 2018. (CNBC Indonesia)
Trump Hints Trade Fight with Japan Could be Next
President Donald Trump told a columnist for the Wall Street Journal that he will take his trade fights to Japan next. The columnist James Freeman noted that the president sounded "still very focused on eliminating trade deficits with America's trading partners". (CNBC)
TPIA : Suffers from Decline of 33.7% in Net Profit
TPIA suffered from the decline of 33.7% y-y to USD115.5
million in the 1H18’s net profit. The decline was attributable to the incline of USD637 per ton in prices of raw material, naphtha; indeed, the inclining naphtha prices are triggered by the soaring crude price and the closing of
butadiene factory for 95 days due to the 4-year
maintenance cycle. (Bisnis Indonesia)
KRAS : Targets Hike in Exports Sales
KRAS targets the 2019’s exports sales portion to reach
20%-30%. It is optimistic that the operation of Hot Strip
Mill Number 2 (HSM2) factory will be a boon for achieving the target. The factory increases the production capacity of steel sheets to 1.5 million tons per year. Additionally, it will expand its exports to the ASEAN’s countries, Japan, and Australia. (Kontan)
GIAA : Is Burdened by Rupiah Depreciation GIAA stated that the rupiah depreciated further and standing near to IDR15,000 per USD is an inevitable burden for company’s performance. 75% of its total expenses are paid using the U.S. dollar, yet its revenues in
the U.S. dollar only reach 35%-40%. Another to the rupiah
depreciation, the soaring crude prices directly causing the
increment of 12% y-y to USD639.7 million in the 1H18’s jet
fuel costs is another burden for GIAA’s performance. (Kontan)
MTDL : Enjoys Buoyant Revenue Growth of 28%
MTDL posted the growth of 28% y-y to IDR5.4 trillion in
the 1H18’s revenue and the surge of 18% y-y to IDR115.28
Global Economic Calendar
Date Country Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Previous
Monday JPN 07:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Aug F 52.5 -- 52.5
03 - Sep CHN 08:45 Caixin China PMI Mfg Aug 50.6 50.7 50.8
GER 14:55 Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI Aug F 55.9 56.1 56.1
EU 15:00 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Aug F 54.6 54.6 54.6
UK 15:30 Markit UK PMI Manufacturing SA Aug 52.8 53.9 54
Tuesday USA 20:45 Markit US Manufacturing PMI Aug F 54.7 54.5 54.5
04 - Sep USA 21:00 ISM Manufacturing Aug 61.3 57.6 58.1
Wednesday USA 19:30 Trade Balance Jul -50.08b -$50.0b -$46.3b
05 - Sep
Thursday GER 13:00 Factory Orders MoM Jul -0.90% 1.80% -4.00%
06 - Sep USA 19:15 ADP Employment Change Aug 162.8k 190k 219k
USA 21:00 Factory Orders Jul -0.80% -0.60% 0.70%
Friday CHN Tentative Foreign Reserves Aug $3115.00b $3117.95b
07 - Sep EU 16:00 GDP SA QoQ 2Q F 0.40% 0.40%
EU 16:00 GDP SA YoY 2Q F 2.20% 2.20%
USA 19:30 Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Jul F 193k 157k
USA 19:30 Unemployment Rate Jul F 3.80% 3.90%
Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Domestic Economic Calendar
Date Hour
Jakarta Event Period Actual Consensus Prev.
Monday 07:30 Nikkei Indonesia PMI Mfg Aug 51.9 -- 50.5
03 - Sep 11:00 CPI NSA MoM Aug -0.05% 0.06% 0.28%
11:00 CPI Core YoY Aug 2.90% 2.89% 2.87%
11:00 CPI YoY Aug 3.20% 3.33% 3.18%
Thursday Tentative Consumer Confidence Index Aug 121.6 -- 124.8
06 - Sep
Friday Tentative Net Foreign Assets IDR Aug -- $1667.4t
07 - Sep Tentative Foreign Reserves Aug -- $118.31b
Corporate Calendar
Date Event Company
Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting OKAS, MITI
04 - Sep
Wednesday Stock Split BCIC (1 : 100,000)
05 - Sep Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting JSMR
Cum Dividend Interim Date JPFA (IDR50 per share)
Thursday Annual Shareholder Meeting BSSR
06 - Sep
Friday Annual & Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting ENRG
07 - Apr Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting PGAS, MPMX
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