Konsep Pengembangan Industri Manufaktur Agus Tjahajana Wirakusumah, Mei 2014

(1)

Konsep Pengembangan Industri Manufaktur 2014-2019

(2)

Topik Pembahasan

• A. Ekonomi Makro dan Peringkat Daya Saing Indonesia

• B. Keadaan Industri Manufaktur Saat Ini

• C. Situasi Persaingan

(3)

A. Ekonomi Makro dan Peringkat Daya Saing

Indonesia

(4)

4 1. Kondisi Perekonomian Dunia

(5)

5 2. Ekonomi Indonesia

(6)

6 Ekonomi Indonesia (2)

(7)

(8)

(9)

9

(10)

10 3. Ekspor Produk Industri

(11)

(12)

12

2

3

1

4

(13)

13 Perkembangan Industri di Luar Jawa

(14)

21,40

21,15

20,32

20,69

20,73

29,47

28,00

25,69

24,47

23,35

_23,37

23,07

23,12

25,21

24,89

24,40

23,96

22,42

22,38

22,43

23,01

22,61

21,48

20,93

20,88

_20,76

15,00

20,00

25,00

30,00

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

7 . Jumlah Manufaktur vs Kontribusi terhadap PDB

Jumlah (000)

Kontribusi (%)

Sumber : BPS diolah

(15)



Industri menyumbang penyerapan tenaga kerja tahun 2013 sekitar

14,8 juta orang;



Industri Mikro dan Kecil menyerap tenaga kerja sekitar 10,3 Juta

(70%), industri Menengah 700 ribu (5%), dan industri berskala besar

3,8 juta (25%);



Cabang industri yang menyerap tenaga kerja dalam jumlah yang besar

yaitu, makanan minuman dan tembakau (4,7 juta orang), TPT (3,1 juta

orang), dan barang kayu dan hasil hutan lainnya (2,5 juta orang);

Sumber : BPS, Dolah

(16)



Pertumbuhan kredit perbankan untuk sektor industri mengalami pertumbuhan positif dan

semakin besar dalam 3 tahun terakhir

16 9. Pertumbuhan Kredit Perbankan per Sektor Ekonomi

(17)

Sumber : BPS, diolah



Selama 2003-2007, sektor industri Logam Dasar memiliki pertumbuhan ekspor yang mampu mengimbangi kebutuhan

Logam Dasar dunia walaupun nilainya belum sebesar sektor industri Barang dari Logam, Mesin dan Peralatannya

17 11. Peran Ekspor Indonesia di Dunia

(18)

0 500 1000 1500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Pakistan

-500 500 1500 2500 3500 4500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

India

-450 -400 -350 -300 -250 -200 -150 -100 -50 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Selandia Baru

-15000 -10000 -5000 0 5000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Jepang

-6000 -5000 -4000 -3000 -2000 -1000 0 1000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Korea

-20000 -15000 -10000 -5000 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

China

-700 -500 -300 -100 100 300 500 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Australia

Neraca Perdagangan Produk Industri Indonesia Vs. Negara Mitra FTA (2007 - 2013)

(dalam Juta US$)

Sumber: BPS (2013), diolah Kemenperin

G. Ekspor: 10.8%

G. Impor: 25.4%

G. Ekspor: 8.8%

G. Impor: 28 %

G. Ekspor: 8.1%

G. Impor: 4 %

G. Ekspor: 11.5%

G. Impor: 11.3%

G. Ekspor: 2.4%

G. Impor: 19.7%

G. Ekspor: 7.8%

G. Impor: 33.6%

G. Ekspor: 9 %

G. Impor: 8 %

(5.000,00) 5.000,00 10.000,00 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

ASEAN

G. Ekspor: 8.4%

G. Impor: 23.1%

(19)

Share of countries in value of all global value chains of manufactures

1995

2008

2008 minus

1995

Mftrs GVC workers as (%) share of

all workers in the economy

1995

2008

United States

19,9

15,8

-4,1

16,04

11,12

Japan

17,5

7,8

-9,7

22,55

19,36

Germany

9,4

7,6

-1,7

26,83

26,44

France

4,4

3,8

-0,6

22,05

18,75

United Kingdom

3,8

3,0

-0,9

20,12

12,60

Italy

4,4

4,1

-0,3

29,09

25,51

Spain

1,9

2,0

0,0

23,23

17,48

Canada

1,9

2,2

0,3

20,76

16,02

Australia

1,0

1,3

0,3

18,23

14,54

South Korea

2,1

1,8

-0,3

29,69

22,83

Netherlands

1,4

-0,1

22,80

19,02

Other ten high-income

5,9

5,3

-0,6

Total all high-income

73,8

56,0

-17,8

China

4,2

12,8

8,6

31,73

33,35

Russian Federation

1,2

2,8

1,6

24,73

21,91

Brazil

2,5

3,0

0,6

29,64

28,74

India

1,7

2,6

0,9

27,92

27,27

Mexico

1,5

2,4

0,9

30,26

24,45

Turkey

1,1

1,4

0,3

27,12

30,42

Indonesia

1,3

0,0

32,10

25,60

Rest of world

12,7

17,5

4,9

World minus all high-income

26,2

44,0

17,8

World

100,0

0,0

(20)

Note : KII, as at July 2013

(21)

Note : KII, as at July 2013

(22)

Kandungan Teknologi Impor Produk Industri

(23)

(24)

Indonesia

S. Korea

China

Thailand

Brazil

India

Russia

Vietnam

Rank/8

Institution

67

75

47

78

80

72

121

98

2 Infrastructure

61

11

48

47

71

85

45

82

5 Macroeconomic Stability

26

9

10

31

75

110

19

87

3 Health and Primary Education

72

18

40

81

89

102

71

67

5 Higher Education & Training

64

19

70

66

72

91

47

95

4 Goods Market Efficiency

50

33

61

34

123

85

126

74

3 Labor Market Efficiency

103

78

34

62

92

99

72

56

8 Financial Market

Sophistication

60

81

54

32

50

19

121

93

5 Technology Readiness

75

22

85

78

55

98

59

102

4 Market Size

15

12

2

22

9

3

7

36

6 Business Sophistication

37

24

45

40

39

42

107

98

2 Innovation

33

17

32

66

55

41

78

76

3 Overall Ranks

38

25

29

37

56

60

64

70

4 Perbandingan Peringkat Negara (World Economy Forum - GCI 2013 - 2014)

(25)

Perkembangan Peringkat Indonesia

(26)

(27)

2. Perbandingan Daya Saing Industri Terhadap Indonesia

(28)

28 3. Daya Saing Indonesia di ASEAN

(29)

29

(30)

Terhadap

Negara Produk-produk Indonesia yang Unggul (SITC rev. 3) berdasarkan TPI tahun 2010

Produk-produk Indonesia yang Unggul (SITC rev. 3) dalam hal Tren peningkatan TPI 2006 - 2010

Brunei Fresh food, chemicals, basic manufctures, non-electronic machinery, IT & consumer

electronics, electronic components, clothing, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Fresh food, chemicals, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, IT & consumer electronics, electronic components, clothing dan minerals.

Malaysia Fresh food, leather products, clothing dan minerals.

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, basic manufactures, IT & consumer electronics, electronic components, transport equipment, clothing, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Thailand Wood products dan minerals.

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, IT & consumer electronics, electronic components, transport equipment, clothing dan miscellaneous manufacturing.

Phillipines

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, transport equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Fresh food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, non-electronic components, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Singapore Wood products, textiles, leather products, clothing dan minerals.

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, IT & consumer electronics, electronic components, clothing dan miscellaneous manufacturing.

Vietnam Processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, non-electronic machinery, electronic

components, transport equipment, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Fresh food, textiles, chemicals, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, IT & consumer non-electronics, non-electronic components, transport equipment, clothing dan miscellaneous manufacturing.

Cambodia

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, transport equipment, clothing dan miscellaneous manufacturing.

Textiles, chemicals, basic manufactures, transport equipment dan clothing.

Myanmar

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, textiles, chemicals, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, IT & consumer electronics, electronic components, transport equipment, clothing, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Fresh food, textiles, leather products, basic manufactures, electronic components, transport equipment, clothing dan minerals.

Laos

Fresh food, processed food, wood products, chemicals, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, electronic components, transport equipment, clothing, miscellaneous manufacturing dan minerals.

Fresh food, leather products, basic manufactures, non-electronic machinery, clothing dan minerals.

Produk-produk Unggulan Indonesia terhadap ASEAN

(31)

4. Persaingan Produktivitas Tenaga Kerja

Source : Asia Productivity Report 2013

(32)

(33)

1. Kondisi Industri

33 Natural Gas

Thermal Coal

Geothermal

Palm Oil

Cocoa

Tin

Nickel

Bauxite

Key Metrics

About 165 TCF

of reserves at

production

rate

±

3 TCF pa

World second

largest

exporter

Home of 40%

of world’s

resources (the

largest in the

world)

World’s

largest

exporter; >19

mil tons per

year

At 770 thou

tons/year,

world’s 2

nd

largest

producer

At 65 thou

tons/year,

world’s 2

nd

largest

producer

Own

±

12% of

world’s

reserves (4

th

largest)

World’s 7

th

largest

reserves;

world’s 4

th

largest

production

Human Primary, Secondary, and Tertiary Needs

- Transportation - A communication tool - Entertainment gadgets - Supporting tools -Clothing - Educational tool - Electrical equipment - Energy equipment - Services RBPI - Packaging - Agro - Agricultural equipment - Fertilizer & Other support - Food

- Medical devices

250 Mill. Population

Needs for Infrastructure, Roads, and Bridge

- Building materials - Construction equipment - Transport equipment - Steel construction Vast Size of

Region

Archi-

pelago Geography Farming Forestry Mining Sea

-Steel construction - Construction equipment - Services RBPI - Transportation - Construction equipment - Electrical equipment - Energy equipment - The machines process - Supporting tools

-Telecommunications -Satellite & peripherals - Steel construction

Rich of Natural resources

Infrastructure needs of process machinery, and other equipment

National Potential

(34)

2. Potensi Sumber Daya Ekonomi Pendukung Industri

(35)

1. Lingkungan strategis 10 tahun terakhir berubah sangat cepat dan

dinamis, sementara itu kinerja industri 5 (lima) tahun terakhir terus

menurun;

2. Globalisasi di bidang ekonomi telah berlangsung sehingga tidak

banyak lagi pilihan kebijakan perlindungan industri yang dapat

digunakan;

3. Era otonomi daerah telah menyebabkan perubahan paradigma

pengembangan industri yang sebelumnya bersifat sentralisasi menjadi

desentralisasi, dimana justru diperlukan koordinasi yang lebih intensif

antara Pemerintah Pusat dan Pemerintah Daerah (Provinsi maupun

Kabupaten/Kota)

4. Banyaknya peraturan perundang-undangan baru yang mengikat

industri yang perlu diakomodasikan oleh industri;

5. Tantangan peningkatan kinerja industri semakin berat dan kompleks

(antara lain seperti tertuang pada rekomendasi hasil

National Summit

)

3. Masalah Yang Dihadapi Dalam Pengembangan Industri

(36)

Perlambatan

Pertumbuhan Dunia

Globalisasi &

FTAs

Fluktuasi Harga

Energi & Komoditas

Negara-negara

pesaing baru

Green Economy/

Industry

Lingkungan Strategis

Daya Saing Industri

Kerjasama Internasional

(Bilateral, Regional,

Multilateral, dll)

Otonomi Daerah

Negara Industri

Tangguh Dunia

(2025)

1. UU No. 3 / 2014

2. Perpres 28 / 2008

4. Paradigma Baru Pengembangan Industri

(37)

37 Tekanan

menurunkan

biaya produksi

Globalisasi

Perubahan

Teknologi

Dinamika Pasar

& Kompetisi

Industri

Kompleksitas

Produk

Risiko

pengembangan

Litbang

Tuntutan pemegang

saham

Regulasi

Desakan Perubahan (dari Luar) Desakan Perubahan (dari Dalam)

SUMBER DAYA (ALAM &

MANUSIA), ENERGI & TEKNOLOGI:

§Manajemen Sumber Daya & Energi

§Manajemen Teknologi

PERDAGANGAN GLOBAL §Pasar & persaingan §Distribusi & pemasaran

§Lembaga penunjang DAYA SAING INDUSTRI: §Produktivitas §Innovativeness §Konektivitas KEBIJAKAN INDUSTRI NASIONAL KONDISI & POTENSI INDUSTRI: §Infrastruktur dan Kelembagaan §Org. Industri §Sosio-kultural KINERJA INDUSTRI

FTAs

5. Tantangan Yang Dihadapi Dalam Rangka Peningkatan Daya Saing

Industri di Tingkat Mikro ke Tingkat Makro

(38)

• Lemahnya prasarana dan sarana;

• Ekonomi biaya tinggi;

• Kesenjangan pembangunan daerah;

• Ketertinggalan penguasaan teknologi;

• Daya saing menurun;

• Pertumbuhan yang lambat;

• Ekspor tertekan;

• Banyaknya kesepakatan internasional dalam bentuk FTA;

• Masih adanya hambatan tarif dan non tarif di negara tujuan ekspor.

Makro

6. Masalah yang Dihadapi di Tingkat Makro

(39)

• Belum kuatnya peran IKM;

• Penurunan kinerja di beberapa cabang Industri terutama cabang industri kayu

dan produk kayu, serta TPT;

• Keterbatasan jumlah industri berteknologi tinggi;

• Kurangnya dukungan permodalan;

• Tingginya suku bunga bank;

• Dukungan infrastruktur yang tidak menunjang.

Meso

7. Masalah yang Dihadapi di Tingkat Meso

(40)

• Rendahnya apresiasi terhadap Produk Dalam Negeri

• Terbatasnya pasokan bahan baku dan energi;

• Kurangnya bahan baku karena diekspor dalam bentuk produk primer;

• Masih Tingginya impor bahan baku dan penolong;

• Terbatasnya produksi barang setengah jadi dan komponen;

• Terbatasnya penerapan standarisasi;

• Belum optimalnya kapasitas produksi;

• Ketergantungan ekspor hanya pada beberapa komoditi & beberapa negara

tujuan;

• Penyelundupan;

• Terbatasnya jumlah merek lokal

.

Industri

8. Masalah yang Dihadapi di Tingkat Industri

(41)

Posisi Bea Masuk Indonesia (MFN) dibanding 7 Negara Anggota G-20 (2010) Sudah Sangat Rendah

9. Tantangan Yang Dihadapi Dari Sisi Perdagangan Internasional

Sumber : WTO, 2010 diolah Kemenperin

①

MFN untuk Produk Non-Agriculture (2010)

②

MFN untuk Produk Pertanian (2010)

NB: Besaran diameter bola

mengindikasikan besaran PDB

suatu negara

(42)

Description

Average (%)

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

China

Malaysia Vietnam

India

Brazil

Russia

all products

4.52

2.40

6.55

12.60

6.02

6.96

12.73

11.14

10.91 agricultural products

18.03

23.55

40.00

21.94

23.27

19.85

41.56

10.35

20.38 industrial products

3.72

1.06

4.44

11.94

5.02

6.20

10.69

11.20

10.26 Live animals; animal products

5.06

25.83

23.75

17.11

0.59

13.13

31.12

10.57

20.75 Vegetable products

6.17

30.21

79.50

22.37

6.71

16.77

34.70

6.69

5.84 Animal or vegetable fats and oils and their cleavage

products, prepared edible fats; animal or vegetable

waxes

2.54

4.22

8.34

18.98

2.83

13.10

18.84

9.36

11.81 Prepared foodstuffs; beverages, spirits and vinegar;

tobacco and manufactured tobacco substitutes

37.82

13.77

16.82

23.56

49.55

30.45

56.88

14.77

31.65 Mineral products

_0.78

_0.28

_2.97

_1.87

_2.16

_6.38

_1.78

_0.36

_5.93

Products of the chemical or allied industries

_5.45

_0.57

_5.83

_9.11

_2.50

_3.81

_8.02

_7.58

_8.94

Plastics and articles thereof; rubber and articles

thereof

8.68

1.16

6.52

12.15

14.15

7.48

8.82

12.15

13.10 Raw hides and skins, leather, furskins and articles

thereof; saddlery and harness; travel goods,

handbags and similar containers; articles of animal

gut (other than silkworm gut)

4.80

9.10

6.86

17.24

2.27

15.29

8.26

18.81

24.51 Wood and articles of wood; wood charcoal; cork and

articles of cork; manufactures of straw, of esparto or

of other plaiting materials; basketware and

wickerwork

2.27

1.66

5.21

6.27

8.55

3.43

8.52

8.66

19.64 Pulp of wood or of other fibrous cellulosic material;

recovered (waste and scrap) paper or paperboard;

paper and paperboard and articles thereof

3.74

0.03

0.05

7.77

7.95

13.33

8.58

10.19

13.00

Sources : www.macmap.org, 2011

Tarif dari Beberapa Produk Penting di Beberapa Negara

(43)

Description

Average (%)

Indonesia

Japan

Korea

China

Malaysia Vietnam

India

Brazil

Russia

Textiles and textile articles

_8.91

_5.61

_10.36

_21.84

_11.18

_12.89

_18.11

_26.26

_20.11

Footwear, headgear, umbrellas, sun umbrellas,

walking-sticks, seat-sticks, whips, riding-crops and

parts thereof; prepared feathers and articles made

therewith; artificial flowers; articles of human hair

16.09

58.32

10.80

23.54

13.80

32.15

9.66

30.49

17.41 Articles of stone, plaster, cement, asbestos, mica or

similar materials; ceramic products; glass and

glassware

8.68

0.48

7.34

16.72

17.66

21.27

9.19

11.10

17.16 Natural or cultured pearls, precious or semi-precious

stones, precious metals, metals clad with precious

metal, and articles thereof; imitation jewellery; coin

4.59

0.48

3.98

9.19

1.76

5.65

9.31

9.64

21.67 Base metals and articles of base metal

_5.71

_0.37

_2.68

_7.87

_16.80

_5.11

_6.38

_11.54

_11.68

Machinery and mechanical appliances; electrical

equipment; parts thereof; sound recorders and

reproducers, television image and sound recorders

and reproducers, and parts and accessories of such

articles

2.65

0.02

3.47

13.90

2.08

3.19

4.95

10.79

5.81 Vehicles, aircraft, vessels and associated transport

equipment

9.99

0.00

6.59

29.15

11.21

21.95

47.96

22.80

20.79 Optical, photographic, cinematographic, measuring,

checking, precision, medical or surgical instruments

and apparatus; clocks and watches; musical

instruments; parts and accessories thereof

4.91

0.06

5.73

8.40

0.24

3.28

6.19

10.56

7.07 Arms and ammunition; parts and accessories thereof

_5.18

_2.57

_1.47

_18.77

_11.83

_3.06

_9.26

_19.05

_25.02

Miscellaneous manufactured articles

_9.52

_0.31

_3.62

_13.02

_7.84

_21.60

_9.27

_17.49

_22.09

Works of art, collectors' pieces and antiques

_5.42

_0.00

_12.60

_0.16

_5.11

_9.27

_3.81

_0.00

Sources : www.macmap.org, 2011

(44)

f. Indonesia Net Importer Perdagangan Jasa

(Juta USD)

Uraian

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

Jasa-Jasa

-9.122

-9.874

-11.841

-12.998

-9.741

-9.324

-11.822

A. Jasa Transportasi

-4.606

-6.079

-7.294

-11.094

-4.083

-6.007

-8.714

B. Jasa Perjalanan (Travel)

938

418

442

1.823

282

563

673 C. Jasa Komunikasi

504

531

702

320

578

579

617 D. Jasa Konstruksi

-241

-529

-282

-83

-213

-72

59 E. Jasa Asuransi

-324

-352

-645

-663

-1.298

1.131 -1.267

F. Jasa Keuangan

-172

-163

-84

-37

-227

-118

-227

G. Jasa Komputer dan Informasi

-414

-477

538 -536

-516

-471

-512

H. Royalti dan Imbalan Lisensi

-698

-859

-1.055

-1.300

-1.492

-1.557

-1.710

I. Jasa Bisnis Lainnya

-4.141

-2.522

-3.195

-1.645

-2.998

-1.147

-747

J. Jasa Personal, Kultural & Rekreasi

-109

-50

52 -49

-51

-29

-56

K. Jasa Pemerintah

143

208

160

264

277

65

56 Sumber: Direktorat Statistik dan Ekonomi Moneter Bank Indonesia

(45)

Perdagangan Intra ASEAN

45

Sources : Trademap

(46)

Perbandingan Trade Intra-ASEAN dan Dunia (2008-12)

46

Sources : Trademap

(47)

Peran Export intra ASEAN terhadap Total Export 2012

47

Gr = Average Growth 2008 – 2012, Except Myanmar 2010-2012 Source : Trademap, Processed

(48)

4. ASEAN Product’s Total Import Share in 2012

48

Gr = Average Growth 2008 – 2012, Except Myanmar 2010-2012 Source : Trademap, Processed

(49)

Sepuluh Besar Barang yang diperdagangkan ASEAN

No. Top 10 Export Countries Destination

Top 10 Suppliers (Importers)

Top 10 products Exported by ASEAN Top 10 Products import ed by ASEAN Chapter Product Label Chapter Product Label

1. China China 85 Electrical, electronic

equipment 27

Mineral fuels, oils, distillation products, etc

2. Japan Singapore 27 Mineral fuels, oils,

distillation products, etc 85

Electrical, electronic equipment

3. United States of

America Japan 84

Machinery, nuclear

reactors, boilers, etc 84

Machinery, nuclear reactors, boilers, etc

4. Singapore Korea, Republic of 15 Animal,vegetable fats and

oils, cleavage products, etc 87

Vehicles other than railway, tramway

5. Hong Kong, China United States of

America 40 Rubber and articles thereof 72 Iron and steel

6. Malaysia Malaysia 87 Vehicles other than railway,

tramway 39 Plastics and articles thereof

7. Indonesia Thailand 39 Plastics and articles thereof 71 Pearls, precious stones,

metals, coins, etc

8. Korea, Republic of Chinese Taipei 29 Organic chemicals 90 Optical, photo, technical,

medical, etc apparatus

9. Australia Indonesia 99 Commodities not

elsewhere specified 29 Organic chemicals

10. India India 90 Optical, photo, technical,

medical, etc apparatus 73 Articles of iron or steel

49

(50)