Tinjauan Kebijakan Moneter edisi Mei 2013

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TINJAUAN KEBIJAKAN MONETE

R

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2011 2012 2013 2013

Sumber: BI, BPS, Roy Morgan, Danareksa, AC Nielsen

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4 Investasi - SKDU

Indeks Tendensi Bisnis

(sk.kanan)

Konsumsi Semen

(sk.kanan)

Impor Barang

Konstruksi

Penjualan Alat

Konstruksi Berat

IPI Prod.Mineral non

Metal (sk.kanan)

PMTB:Bangunan (sk.kanan)

PMTB Mesin

Konsumsi

Listrik:Industri

Impor Mesin&Peralatan

(sk.kanan)

IPI Mesin

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5 2011

2012

2013

,

2013

Total

2011 2012 2013 , 2013

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5.57

4.12

2.72 13.03

-10 -4 2 8 14 20

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9_{10 11 12}1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9_{10 11 12}1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9_{10 11 12}1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9_{10 11 12}1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9_{10 11 12}1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9_{10 11 12}1 2 3 4

2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

CPI Core Administered Prices Volatile Food

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60

65 70 75 80

Tw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IVTw ITw IITw IIITw IV

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Kapasitas Produksi Terpakai Industri Pengolahan

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9 Horti-20 Komoditas (Pengaturan RIPH & Penutupan Impor Sementara)

Horti-39 Komoditas (Pengaturan titik masuk, aspek keamanan, dll)

Komposit bawang

%, mtm Kontribusi (%, mtm)

Inflasi

Rokok kretek filter

0,44

0,01

Bahan Bakar Rumah Tangga

0,33

0,01

Rokok kretek filter

0,41

0,01

Sumber: BPS

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T i n j a u a n K e b i j a k a n M o n e t e r

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13 Spread (Rhs)

Credit rate

Deposit rate

BI rate

Sb LPS

%

Selisih rKredit - rDepo1:

6.48%

Per Mar 2013

korelasi: rLPS dan rDep :0.89 korelasi ; BI rate dan rDep: 0.85

%

BI Rate 6.00 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75 5.75

Penjaminan Deposito 6.50 6.00 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50 5.50

Dep 1 bulan (rata-rata tertimbang) 6.26 5.97 5.66 5.42 5.35 5.39 5.39 5.42 5.40 5.49 5.42 5.58 5.49 5.43 5.51

Kredit Modal Kerja (KMK) 12.14 12.11 12.01 11.86 11.78 11.79 11.78 11.73 11.70 11.68 11.61 11.49 11.49 11.45 11.44

Kredit Investasi (KI) 11.73 11.69 11.62 11.56 11.51 11.46 11.42 11.35 11.36 11.29 11.24 11.27 11.29 11.27 11.24

Kredit Konsumsi (KK) 14.14 14.15 14.13 14.10 14.03 13.90 13.92 13.69 13.67 13.60 13.53 13.58 13.40 13.22 13.28 2013

Suku Bunga (%) 2012

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Utama Jan Feb Mar Apr Mei Juni Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar

Total Aset (T Rp) 3,598.7 3,628.1 3,708.7 3,745.1 3,827.4 3,891.1 3,902.5 3,923.8 4,009.4 4,028.8 4,103.5 4,262.6 4,211.0 4,237.1 4,313.8 * tanpa channeling

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8 Deviasi Apr '13 and Maret '13

April 2013

ThaiLand Vietnam Philippine Malaysia Indonesia

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Short Term Medium Term

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Apr Mei Juni Jul Agt Sep Okt Nov Des Jan Feb Mar Apr

SUKU BUNGA & SAHAM

Suku bunga SBI 9 bln 1) _3.93 _4.24 _4.32 _4.46 _4.54 _4.67 _4.75 _4.77 _4.80 _4.84 _4.86 _4.87

-Suku bunga deposito 1 bln 2) _5.42 _5.35 _5.39 _5.39 _5.42 _5.40 _5.49 _5.42 _5.58 _5.49 _5.43 _5.51

-Suku bunga deposito 3 bln 2) _6.00 _5.89 _5.76 _5.67 _5.61 _5.69 _5.66 _5.81 _5.76 _5.89 _5.92 _5.64

-JIBOR satu minggu 2) _3.81 _3.83 _4.10 _4.17 _4.29 _4.24 _4.27 _4.29 _4.32 _4.30 _4.28 _4.28

-IHSG Indeks 3) _4,181 _3,833 _3,956 _4,142 _4,060 _4,263 _4,350 _4,276 _4,317 _4,454 _4,796 _4,941 _5,034

BESARAN MONETER (miliar Rp)

Uang Primer 596,592 604,979 627,359 634,993 657,955 638,869 648,106 647,979 704,843 664,007 655,486 664,935

-M1(C+D) 720,924 749,450 779,416 771,792 772,429 795,518 774,983 801,403 841,721 787,916 786,606 807,571

-Uang Kartal (C) 290,861 294,768 314,670 315,375 327,059 325,566 326,119 327,069 361,967 326,885 321,541 328,684 -Uang giral (D) 430,064 454,682 464,746 456,417 445,370 469,952 448,864 474,334 479,755 461,031 465,065 478,886 -Uang Beredar Luas (M2 = C+D+T+S) 2,927,259 2,992,057 3,050,355 3,054,534 3,089,011 3,125,533 3,161,726 3,205,129 3,304,645 3,265,869 3,277,426 3,277,426 -Uang kuasi (T) 2,190,885 2,227,527 2,254,329 2,269,809 2,304,474 2,318,559 2,376,102 2,393,320 2,452,503 2,467,124 2,479,959 2,479,959 Uang kuasi (Rupiah) 1,887,124 1,900,824 1,915,625 1,926,046 1,960,339 1,968,062 2,009,812 2,022,975 2,092,654 2,095,427 2,105,861 2,123,895 Deposito 1,020,792 1,027,151 1,016,060 1,017,021 1,030,262 1,030,830 1,060,357 1,058,871 1,066,527 1,079,275 1,098,083 1,123,533 Tabungan Total 866,332 873,673 899,565 909,025 930,077 937,232 949,456 964,105 1,026,127 1,016,152 1,007,778 1,000,362 Deposito (Valas) 148,486 159,186 164,762 170,722 171,517 180,380 187,859 190,178 177,508 173,616 169,755 182,383 Simpanan Giro Valuta Asing 155,275 167,516 173,942 173,041 172,617 170,117 178,430 180,166 182,341 198,081 204,343 190,841 -Surat Berharga Selain Saham (S) 15,450 15,081 16,610 12,932 12,108 11,457 10,640 10,406 10,420 10,829 10,861 12,132

-Tagihan kepada Sektor Lainnya 2,519,946 2,586,786 2,653,871 2,668,447 2,696,876 2,758,170 2,791,363 2,833,571 2,920,934 2,897,711 2,921,209 2,969,119 -Tagihan pada Sektor Swasta 2,230,960 2,289,504 2,361,812 2,378,914 2,406,188 2,471,071 2,504,939 2,504,347 2,584,819 2,556,620 2,571,080 2,615,049

-Inflasi bulanan (%, mtm) 0.21 0.07 0.62 0.70 0.95 0.01 0.16 0.07 0.54 1.03 0.75 0.63 -0.10

Inflasi tahunan (%, yoy) 4.50 4.45 4.53 4.56 4.58 4.31 4.61 4.32 4.30 4.57 5.31 5.90 5.57

Rp/USD (akhir periode, nilai tengah) 9,190 9,565 9,480 9,485 9,560 9,588 9,615 9,605 9,670 9,698 9,667 9,719 9,722 Ekspor Barang Non migas (f.o.b, juta USD) 4) _12,698 _13,315 _12,420 _13,168 _11,238 _13,011 _12,636 _13,202 _12,313 _12,386 _11,897 _-

-Impor Barang Non migas (c & f, juta USD) 4) _12,381 _13,363 _12,918 _13,282 _10,366 _11,733 _13,053 _12,479 _11,715 _11,608 _11,619 _-

-2013

Pertumbuhan PDB (%, yoy) 6.2 6.1 6.0

Konsumsi 4.5 3.9 4.7

Investasi (PMTB) 9.8 7.3 5.9

Perubahan Stok -9.5 94.6 10.2

Ekspor -2.6 0.5 3.4

Impor -0.2 6.8 -0.4

1) minggu terakhir 2) rata-rata tertimbang 3) penutupan pada akhir periode 4) closed file

Sumber : Bank Indonesia, kecuali data pasar modal (BAPEPAM), IHK, ekspor/impor dan PDB dari BPS