SMART MONEY
July 2018
By:
Evan Lie Hadiwidjaja
BANKING SECTOR
Heat Map
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Degree of changes in ownership
+
-
Notes:
PF = Pension Fund
MF = Mutual Fund
IS = Insurance
IB = Investment Banking
Monthly Changes (%)
Local PF
Local MF
Local IS
Local IB
Foreign PF
Foreign MF
Foreign IS
Foreign IB
Banking
Cement
Consumer Staples
Coal
Construction
Media
Plantation
Property
Retail
Telecommunication
BANKING SECTOR
Banking Sector
Average foreign ownership in the banking sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
We see continuous foreign capital outflow due to concerns on IDR stability and NIM going forward given the recent policy
rate hikes. However, we believe that banks are currently trading at a very attractive level especially given the 2Q18 results
where recoveries are seen in credit demand and credit cost.
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
76.9%76.9% 76.5%
75.7%75.5% 74.5%
73.7%74.4%73.8% 73.0% 78.3%78.2%77.8%
67.7% 66.1%66.5%
68.2%
69.6%69.7%70.5%70.2%69.2%69.9%69.9%70.5% 71.1%71.5%71.7%71.1%
70.3%
% Foreign Ownership
4.5% 4.4%4.6%
Average of % local PF
7.8% 7.8%
Average of % local MF
19.1%18.9%19.2%18.9%18.9%18.8%18.7%19.0%19.0%18.8%18.7%19.1%19.8%20.1% 20.4%21.0%21.5%
22.1%22.4%22.4%22.7%22.7%23.0% 23.7%
24.8%25.1%25.9%25.8%25.6%26.1%26.1%26.2%26.1% 26.7%26.4%26.2%
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Despite gradual accumulation from foreign MF, we have not seen distinct movement from local PF and MF as outlook
remains uncertain due to oversupply in the industry. Meanwhile, we see mixed readings in the 2Q18 results. While INTP
missed the 2Q18 consensus, SMGR beats market expectation supported by gradual ASP increase YTD.
BANKING SECTOR
Cement Sector
Average foreign ownership in the cement sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
77.4%77.8%77.6%77.9%77.7%77.4%77.5%77.3%77.1% 76.9%76.6%76.8%77.4%
77.9%77.6%77.8% 79.3%
83.9%83.6%
85.2%84.9%85.0%85.0%85.6%85.5%85.4% 85.9%86.3%85.8%85.8%
85.2%85.7%85.5%85.5%
86.2%86.1%86.3%86.3%86.4%86.1%86.0%
% Foreign Ownership
5.5%
Average of % local PF
3.9%
Average of % local MF
16.2%16.5%
18.0%18.9%19.0%18.8%18.4%18.7%18.7%18.5%18.4%18.2%18.2%18.2%18.4%18.3%18.8%
19.2%18.8%19.2%19.4%19.6%19.8%20.1%19.8%19.6%20.0% 20.4%
19.6%19.8%19.5%19.9%20.0%20.1%20.3%
20.6%20.9%20.9%20.7%21.5%21.4%
0.0%
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
We see local money flow to the sector are normalizing after strong accumulation in the past 12 months due to market
optimism in consumption recovery this year. Meanwhile, foreign flow continues to decline due to demanding valuation. We
observe improvement in 2Q18 earning results driven by better sales volume.
BANKING SECTOR
Consumer Staples Sector
Average foreign ownership in the consumer staples sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
63.6%62.6%
61.8%61.3%60.9%60.1%60.3%60.4%60.2%60.0%59.8%60.1%59.6%59.7%59.7%60.2%61.1%62.0%62.0% 59.0%
57.6%
55.6%55.2%54.7%54.4%54.2%55.5%54.2%54.3%54.0%53.6%53.9%53.8%53.7%53.9%53.4%53.5%52.8%52.3%51.8%51.7%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%
% Foreign Ownership
4.0%
4.4% 4.5%4.5% 4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%4.4% 4.3%4.2% 4.2% 4.0%
3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3%
3.8% 4.2%
4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.2%5.4% 5.3%
5.8%
6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%6.7% 6.9%7.1%
7.5%7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% 7.9%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Average of % local PF
7.9%8.1% 8.8%9.1%
9.3% 9.9% 9.8%
9.5% 9.5% 9.7%9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1%10.3%9.9%
9.1% 8.6%
8.3% 9.7%10.2%
11.0%11.1%
10.8%10.6%10.5%10.6%10.6% 10.2%10.6%
10.9%10.9%10.7%10.6% 10.2%10.2%10.5%10.6%
10.8%10.8%10.8%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Average of % local MF
12.8% 12.5%12.3%12.1%
11.5%
11.0%10.9%11.0%11.3%11.2%11.3%
11.6%11.4%11.5%11.6%11.7%12.0%12.1%11.8% 12.5%
12.1%11.9%
11.7%11.5%11.4%11.5%11.8%11.8%11.9%11.9%11.7%
11.3%11.4%11.5%11.3%11.2% 10.9%10.9%
10.5%10.4%10.2%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Gradual accumulation is seen from foreign MF despite selling pressure from local funds. Coal price remained strong in July
(+2.6% MoM) boosted by higher demand from China and India. Moreover, market is expecting a solid 2Q18 numbers on the
back of higher ASP and coal production volume.
BANKING SECTOR
Coal Sector
Average foreign ownership in the coal sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
45.7%45.7%45.1%45.1%45.4%46.2%46.1%45.3% 44.2%
43.0%43.2%44.1%42.6%41.9% 40.9%40.0%40.5%40.3%
38.2% 35.1%35.7%35.3%34.7%
33.4%33.8%33.5%34.0%34.3%34.6%35.0%34.0%35.0%34.7%34.7%35.5%
37.0%36.8%36.5%37.2%37.6% 39.4%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%
% Foreign Ownership
5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1%
5.0% 4.9% 4.9%4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%
4.7% 4.7% 4.6%4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%4.6% 5.4%
4.8%
3.9% 3.8%4.0% 4.1%
3.5% 2.8%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%
Average of % local PF
3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%
2.9% 2.8%3.1% 3.0% 3.0%2.9% 2.3%
2.9% 2.9% 3.2%
3.7% 3.6% 3.6%3.9% 4.7%
5.9% 6.3%
6.1% 6.9%7.1%
7.4%
5.6% 5.3%5.4% 5.5%
6.1% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%5.9%
6.1%6.0% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%
Average of % local MF
11.1%11.1%11.6%11.8%11.8% 12.5%12.4%
11.8% 10.6%
9.6% 9.4% 9.1%
8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%8.8% 9.0% 8.9% 8.6%8.5% 8.4%8.2% 8.1%8.4% 8.4% 8.5%8.8% 9.2% 9.3% 9.2%
9.8% 9.8% 9.8%10.2% 10.5%
11.1% 11.7%12.0%12.2%
12.7%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%
CONSTRUCTION SECTOR
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
We see less movements in the sector as 2Q18 results are broadly in-line with market expectation. Meanwhile, we observe
gradual cash flow recovery on the back of turnkey projects payments. From valuation perspective, we see all SOE
contractors under our coverage are trading at attractive multiples between 6-9x forward PE.
BANKING SECTOR
Construction Sector
Average foreign ownership in the construction sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
32.5%33.4%32.1%31.8%33.4%32.5% 34.8%
36.7%37.1% 35.8%
37.4%37.8%38.5%39.0%37.6%38.7% 41.2%42.6%
39.4%39.0%
37.8%37.2%36.5%36.9%38.1%
38.9%40.3%40.2%40.0%39.7%39.8% 41.3%40.7%
39.5%40.4%40.2%38.7%38.3% 37.7%
36.6%36.6%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%
% Foreign Ownership
7.0% 7.7% 7.5%
8.2% 8.3% 9.3%9.1%
8.4% 8.4%8.7%8.3% 8.0% 7.9%7.7% 7.8%
7.1% 6.6%
6.1% 8.4%
9.3%9.7% 9.8%
10.1%10.4%10.5%10.4%10.1%10.0%10.0%10.1%10.2%10.1% 9.8% 9.9%
9.5% 9.5%9.7% 10.1%10.3%
10.7%10.7%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
Average of % local PF
25.8%25.3%26.1%
24.6%25.1%25.0%25.2%24.9%24.9%24.8%25.3%24.3% 23.7%24.6%24.2%23.8%
21.8%
19.8%19.4%19.3%19.1%19.7%20.0% 18.3%
16.6% 15.3%
14.2%14.0%14.3%
13.6%13.5%13.2%13.0%13.7% 15.9%
17.4%18.0%17.2%16.8%16.7% 15.2%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%
Average of % local MF
9.8% 9.8%
8.9%8.6%9.1% 8.9%9.5% 10.7%11.0%10.5%
12.1%12.2%12.2%12.2% 11.4%
12.5% 13.8%
14.7% 14.1%
13.5%
12.4%12.7%12.4%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.4%12.4%12.0%12.2%12.7%12.7%12.9% 13.4%13.6%13.2%13.0%
12.7%13.0%13.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%
We see less movements in the local-foreign ownership which we believe was a result from moderate 2Q18 results. However,
we expect better earnings for SCMA in the coming quarters stemmed by broadcasting rights for Asian Games 2018.
Management indicated that the company could book IDR 200 Bn revenue (vs IDR 50 Bn cost).
BANKING SECTOR
Media Sector
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Average foreign ownership in the media sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
30.1%
30.4%30.5% 30.2%30.4%
30.6% 31.1%
31.4% 32.0%
32.3%32.4% 33.5%
33.2%
32.4%32.4%32.3%32.5%32.4%32.4%32.6%32.5%32.5% 32.8%32.9%
33.3% 33.8%
33.2% 32.9%32.9%
32.5%32.7% 33.5%
32.8%33.0%
28.0%
% Foreign Ownership
0.5%
Average of % local PF
2.6%
Average of % local MF
9.4%
No significant movement as we see lack of catalyst in the sector. Despite attractive valuation. we remain neutral on the
sector due to weak CPO price which potentially leads to poor profitability from CPO planters (AALI and LSIP). In 2H18, we
expect no significant movement on CPO price as we are moving toward CPO high production cycle.
BANKING SECTOR
Plantation Sector
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Average foreign ownership in the plantation sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
44.3%45.2%43.6% 41.3%42.1%42.3%41.5%
44.1% 42.9%41.9%42.0%44.0%
45.5%44.7% 42.2%
37.1%37.0% 35.2%
33.9%33.7%34.4%34.6%34.4%34.7%35.1%34.3% 36.5%36.4%36.9%35.8%
35.0%36.0%36.5%36.2%35.9%37.0%37.0%37.2%36.6%36.4%36.4%
0.0%
% Foreign Ownership
12.6%12.9%12.5%12.6%12.6%12.9%12.8%
11.7%11.5%11.6%11.5%11.4%11.2%11.2%11.7% 12.4%12.4%12.5%
Average of % local PF
12.4%
12.5%12.2%12.1%
9.9%9.6% 9.5% 10.3%10.8%
11.7%
Average of % local MF
11.9% 11.4%11.4%11.1%
12.2%12.2%
11.5%11.8%
12.4%12.7%12.9%12.3%12.3% 11.8%12.3%12.3%
12.6%12.6%12.5%13.0%13.0%12.9%13.2% 13.3%13.6%
14.1%14.0%14.1%13.9%
Decent marketing sales was not accompanied by the financial performance. Meanwhile, the market is still digesting the
impact of LTV relaxation as well as higher pricing from 100 bps policy rate hike YTD. In the meantime, we remain cautious
on the sector while monitoring 2H18 marketing sales performance.
BANKING SECTOR
Property Sector
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Average foreign ownership in the property sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
46.9%47.3%46.3%47.3%46.9%46.6%46.6%46.9%46.3%46.4%46.3%46.9%47.9%48.1%47.8%47.7%48.8%49.4%48.9%49.3%48.7%48.8%47.5%47.9%48.3%49.1%49.8% 44.5%
42.3%42.2%41.7% 40.0%
38.8%
35.0%35.2%34.9%34.7%34.7%34.6%34.3%34.3%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%
% Foreign Ownership
2.1% 2.1% 2.1%2.2% 2.2%
2.3%2.4%2.3% 2.3%2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%
1.9% 1.8%
1.7% 1.7% 1.9%
2.1% 2.3%
2.2%2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%2.2%
2.2%2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%2.3% 2.2%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%
Average of % local PF
7.9%8.1% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4%
8.2% 8.0% 8.0%
8.5% 8.6% 8.4% 7.8%
7.5% 7.6% 8.0%8.3%
7.3% 6.5% 6.4%
5.8% 5.9% 5.4%
6.0%5.8% 5.2%
4.8%
4.3% 4.2%4.1% 4.3%4.4%4.0% 3.9%4.4% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0%5.0% 4.9%
5.2% 4.9%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%
Average of % local MF
9.4% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%
8.3% 8.1% 8.2%8.0% 8.1% 8.0%8.2% 8.3%8.5% 8.5% 9.0%
9.9%10.3%9.8% 9.7%
9.4% 9.4% 9.6%9.8% 9.9%
10.2%10.4%10.5%10.4%10.3%10.2%10.3%10.2%
10.1%10.1% 9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 9.9% 10.0%10.0%
0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%
RETAIL SECTOR
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
We notice an uptick in foreign ownership stemmed by satisfying 2Q18 performance from the majority of retailers. On the
other hand, local MF ownership was possibly dragged down by
LPPF’s
underperforming market expectation in 2Q18.
Welcoming election year, we expect retail consumption to remain strong.
BANKING SECTOR
Retail Sector
Average foreign ownership in the retail sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
67.0% 67.7%67.5%67.8%68.0%
68.3%68.1% 67.3%
67.0%67.4%67.3% 65.8%66.1%
65.4% 65.2%65.2%65.0%
63.9% 64.6%
65.1% 64.2%
62.9%62.9%63.0% 63.7%
63.2% 62.8%63.2%
61.9%61.7%61.7% 62.6%62.3%62.8%
64.7% 65.2%
64.6% 64.3%
63.2%63.0% 63.7%
58.0% 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0%
% Foreign Ownership
1.1%1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%
1.0% 1.0%
1.0% 1.0% 1.0%0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%0.8%
0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%
0.8% 0.9%
0.9% 0.9% 1.0%0.9%1.0%
0.9% 1.0% 1.0%
0.8% 0.8%0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%
0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%
Average of % local PF
4.6%
4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%4.5%4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8%
5.2% 5.9%
6.3% 6.4%
5.6% 5.4%5.4% 5.5%5.6% 5.7% 5.7%5.4%5.7% 5.7%5.5% 5.5%5.8% 5.8%5.4%5.8% 5.8%5.3%5.8% 7.0%
7.5% 8.1% 8.2%
7.7%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%
Average of % local MF
23.9%
23.3%23.0%23.3%23.5%23.7%23.4%23.3%24.2%
24.9%25.1%25.5%25.2%25.0%25.9%26.4%26.4%27.2%
27.8%28.7%29.2%29.1%29.1%29.0%
29.4%29.3%29.6%29.9%30.0%29.9%29.4%29.3%28.8%28.8%30.2%30.5%30.4% 31.0%
29.9%29.6%29.6%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%
TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Disappointing 2Q18 result triggered capital outflow from the sector despite previous accumulation across the board.
However, as tariff hike was just raised in mid-June, we expect the impact on earnings to be seen in upcoming quarters.
Overall, we remain positive on the sector driven by tariff hike and rising data traffic.
BANKING SECTOR
Telecommunication Sector
Average foreign ownership in the telecommunication sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
86.0%86.1%85.9%86.5%86.5%87.0%86.8%86.7%86.3%86.0%85.8%86.9%86.6%86.6% 84.3%84.7%
85.5%
84.3%84.0% 83.2%
% Foreign Ownership
2.3%
Average of % local PF
4.7%
Average of % local MF
22.6%
22.5%22.6% 22.7% 25.4%25.6%
24.9%25.1% 25.2%
24.7% 24.2%
23.5%23.5% 23.0%
23.5%23.7% 24.0%
24.8%
23.7%23.9%
19.0%
TOBACCO SECTOR
We see selling pressure from foreign fund slowly wearing off while local funds keep on accumulating. We observe a positive
sentiment on the industry as sales volume has recovered in 2Q18 and is expected to continue in the upcoming quarters.
BANKING SECTOR
Tobacco Sector
Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research
Average foreign ownership in the tobacco sector
Average local mutual fund ownership
Average local pension fund ownership
Average foreign mutual fund ownership
69.1%69.3%68.6%68.0%68.0%68.2%68.5%
62.9%64.5%64.5%63.6%63.4% 61.8%62.0%63.0%64.1%
66.6%66.5%66.0%65.6%64.5%
55.4%55.2%54.4%54.9%54.7%56.1%55.9%56.0%55.1%53.7%53.1%54.0%53.4%53.4% 51.6%
49.9%48.5% 47.0%45.9%45.5%
0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%
% Foreign Ownership
1.7%
1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 3.1%
3.0% 3.0%3.2%3.0%3.0% 3.0%2.9%3.0%
2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%3.0% 3.4%3.5%
3.6%3.5%3.7%3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5%3.6%
3.7%3.8% 4.0% 4.0%
4.2% 4.2% 4.2%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Average of % local PF
10.5%10.8%10.5%11.2% 11.7%11.5%11.5%
16.5% 16.0%16.3%
16.9% 17.9%18.3%18.2%17.6%
16.7% 14.6%14.4%
13.1%12.8% 14.0%
15.8%15.8%15.8%15.4%15.2% 14.4%14.2%
13.5%13.7% 14.8%
15.8%15.9%16.4%16.5% 18.3%
19.5% 20.4%
21.3%21.7%22.0%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%
Average of % local MF
13.8%13.8%13.8%14.1%14.2%14.1%13.7% 21.3%21.2%
20.6% 19.8%
21.8% 20.3%
19.8%20.3%
20.8%21.5%21.5%21.7%21.6%21.7%20.4%20.4%20.0%20.5%20.4%20.7%
21.3%21.5%21.9%21.8%21.5%21.6%21.5%21.4%21.8% 20.6%
19.5% 18.6%
17.9%18.0%
0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%