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(1)

SMART MONEY

July 2018

By:

Evan Lie Hadiwidjaja

(2)

BANKING SECTOR

Heat Map

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Degree of changes in ownership

+

-

Notes:

PF = Pension Fund

MF = Mutual Fund

IS = Insurance

IB = Investment Banking

Monthly Changes (%)

Local PF

Local MF

Local IS

Local IB

Foreign PF

Foreign MF

Foreign IS

Foreign IB

Banking

Cement

Consumer Staples

Coal

Construction

Media

Plantation

Property

Retail

Telecommunication

(3)

BANKING SECTOR

Banking Sector

Average foreign ownership in the banking sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

We see continuous foreign capital outflow due to concerns on IDR stability and NIM going forward given the recent policy

rate hikes. However, we believe that banks are currently trading at a very attractive level especially given the 2Q18 results

where recoveries are seen in credit demand and credit cost.

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

76.9%76.9% 76.5%

75.7%75.5% 74.5%

73.7%74.4%73.8% 73.0% 78.3%78.2%77.8%

67.7% 66.1%66.5%

68.2%

69.6%69.7%70.5%70.2%69.2%69.9%69.9%70.5% 71.1%71.5%71.7%71.1%

70.3%

% Foreign Ownership

4.5% 4.4%4.6%

Average of % local PF

7.8% 7.8%

Average of % local MF

19.1%18.9%19.2%18.9%18.9%18.8%18.7%19.0%19.0%18.8%18.7%19.1%19.8%20.1% 20.4%21.0%21.5%

22.1%22.4%22.4%22.7%22.7%23.0% 23.7%

24.8%25.1%25.9%25.8%25.6%26.1%26.1%26.2%26.1% 26.7%26.4%26.2%

(4)

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Despite gradual accumulation from foreign MF, we have not seen distinct movement from local PF and MF as outlook

remains uncertain due to oversupply in the industry. Meanwhile, we see mixed readings in the 2Q18 results. While INTP

missed the 2Q18 consensus, SMGR beats market expectation supported by gradual ASP increase YTD.

BANKING SECTOR

Cement Sector

Average foreign ownership in the cement sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

77.4%77.8%77.6%77.9%77.7%77.4%77.5%77.3%77.1% 76.9%76.6%76.8%77.4%

77.9%77.6%77.8% 79.3%

83.9%83.6%

85.2%84.9%85.0%85.0%85.6%85.5%85.4% 85.9%86.3%85.8%85.8%

85.2%85.7%85.5%85.5%

86.2%86.1%86.3%86.3%86.4%86.1%86.0%

% Foreign Ownership

5.5%

Average of % local PF

3.9%

Average of % local MF

16.2%16.5%

18.0%18.9%19.0%18.8%18.4%18.7%18.7%18.5%18.4%18.2%18.2%18.2%18.4%18.3%18.8%

19.2%18.8%19.2%19.4%19.6%19.8%20.1%19.8%19.6%20.0% 20.4%

19.6%19.8%19.5%19.9%20.0%20.1%20.3%

20.6%20.9%20.9%20.7%21.5%21.4%

0.0%

(5)

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

We see local money flow to the sector are normalizing after strong accumulation in the past 12 months due to market

optimism in consumption recovery this year. Meanwhile, foreign flow continues to decline due to demanding valuation. We

observe improvement in 2Q18 earning results driven by better sales volume.

BANKING SECTOR

Consumer Staples Sector

Average foreign ownership in the consumer staples sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

63.6%62.6%

61.8%61.3%60.9%60.1%60.3%60.4%60.2%60.0%59.8%60.1%59.6%59.7%59.7%60.2%61.1%62.0%62.0% 59.0%

57.6%

55.6%55.2%54.7%54.4%54.2%55.5%54.2%54.3%54.0%53.6%53.9%53.8%53.7%53.9%53.4%53.5%52.8%52.3%51.8%51.7%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0%

% Foreign Ownership

4.0%

4.4% 4.5%4.5% 4.6%4.7% 4.7% 4.6% 4.5%4.4% 4.3%4.2% 4.2% 4.0%

3.8% 3.7% 3.7% 3.4% 3.3%

3.8% 4.2%

4.6% 4.7% 5.1% 5.2%5.4% 5.3%

5.8%

6.5% 6.4% 6.4% 6.5%6.7% 6.9%7.1%

7.5%7.8% 7.8% 7.9% 8.0% 7.9%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

Average of % local PF

7.9%8.1% 8.8%9.1%

9.3% 9.9% 9.8%

9.5% 9.5% 9.7%9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 10.1%10.3%9.9%

9.1% 8.6%

8.3% 9.7%10.2%

11.0%11.1%

10.8%10.6%10.5%10.6%10.6% 10.2%10.6%

10.9%10.9%10.7%10.6% 10.2%10.2%10.5%10.6%

10.8%10.8%10.8%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Average of % local MF

12.8% 12.5%12.3%12.1%

11.5%

11.0%10.9%11.0%11.3%11.2%11.3%

11.6%11.4%11.5%11.6%11.7%12.0%12.1%11.8% 12.5%

12.1%11.9%

11.7%11.5%11.4%11.5%11.8%11.8%11.9%11.9%11.7%

11.3%11.4%11.5%11.3%11.2% 10.9%10.9%

10.5%10.4%10.2%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

(6)

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Gradual accumulation is seen from foreign MF despite selling pressure from local funds. Coal price remained strong in July

(+2.6% MoM) boosted by higher demand from China and India. Moreover, market is expecting a solid 2Q18 numbers on the

back of higher ASP and coal production volume.

BANKING SECTOR

Coal Sector

Average foreign ownership in the coal sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

45.7%45.7%45.1%45.1%45.4%46.2%46.1%45.3% 44.2%

43.0%43.2%44.1%42.6%41.9% 40.9%40.0%40.5%40.3%

38.2% 35.1%35.7%35.3%34.7%

33.4%33.8%33.5%34.0%34.3%34.6%35.0%34.0%35.0%34.7%34.7%35.5%

37.0%36.8%36.5%37.2%37.6% 39.4%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0% 50.0%

% Foreign Ownership

5.6% 5.6% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5% 5.5%5.4% 5.2% 5.2% 5.1% 5.1%

5.0% 4.9% 4.9%4.8% 4.9% 4.9% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7%

4.7% 4.7% 4.6%4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.8% 4.7% 4.7% 4.7%4.6% 5.4%

4.8%

3.9% 3.8%4.0% 4.1%

3.5% 2.8%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0%

Average of % local PF

3.6% 3.5% 3.5% 3.6% 3.4%

2.9% 2.8%3.1% 3.0% 3.0%2.9% 2.3%

2.9% 2.9% 3.2%

3.7% 3.6% 3.6%3.9% 4.7%

5.9% 6.3%

6.1% 6.9%7.1%

7.4%

5.6% 5.3%5.4% 5.5%

6.1% 5.6% 5.6% 5.6%5.9%

6.1%6.0% 5.9% 6.0% 5.9% 5.3%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0%

Average of % local MF

11.1%11.1%11.6%11.8%11.8% 12.5%12.4%

11.8% 10.6%

9.6% 9.4% 9.1%

8.4% 8.4% 8.4% 8.4%8.8% 9.0% 8.9% 8.6%8.5% 8.4%8.2% 8.1%8.4% 8.4% 8.5%8.8% 9.2% 9.3% 9.2%

9.8% 9.8% 9.8%10.2% 10.5%

11.1% 11.7%12.0%12.2%

12.7%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0%

(7)

CONSTRUCTION SECTOR

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

We see less movements in the sector as 2Q18 results are broadly in-line with market expectation. Meanwhile, we observe

gradual cash flow recovery on the back of turnkey projects payments. From valuation perspective, we see all SOE

contractors under our coverage are trading at attractive multiples between 6-9x forward PE.

BANKING SECTOR

Construction Sector

Average foreign ownership in the construction sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

32.5%33.4%32.1%31.8%33.4%32.5% 34.8%

36.7%37.1% 35.8%

37.4%37.8%38.5%39.0%37.6%38.7% 41.2%42.6%

39.4%39.0%

37.8%37.2%36.5%36.9%38.1%

38.9%40.3%40.2%40.0%39.7%39.8% 41.3%40.7%

39.5%40.4%40.2%38.7%38.3% 37.7%

36.6%36.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%

% Foreign Ownership

7.0% 7.7% 7.5%

8.2% 8.3% 9.3%9.1%

8.4% 8.4%8.7%8.3% 8.0% 7.9%7.7% 7.8%

7.1% 6.6%

6.1% 8.4%

9.3%9.7% 9.8%

10.1%10.4%10.5%10.4%10.1%10.0%10.0%10.1%10.2%10.1% 9.8% 9.9%

9.5% 9.5%9.7% 10.1%10.3%

10.7%10.7%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

Average of % local PF

25.8%25.3%26.1%

24.6%25.1%25.0%25.2%24.9%24.9%24.8%25.3%24.3% 23.7%24.6%24.2%23.8%

21.8%

19.8%19.4%19.3%19.1%19.7%20.0% 18.3%

16.6% 15.3%

14.2%14.0%14.3%

13.6%13.5%13.2%13.0%13.7% 15.9%

17.4%18.0%17.2%16.8%16.7% 15.2%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Average of % local MF

9.8% 9.8%

8.9%8.6%9.1% 8.9%9.5% 10.7%11.0%10.5%

12.1%12.2%12.2%12.2% 11.4%

12.5% 13.8%

14.7% 14.1%

13.5%

12.4%12.7%12.4%12.3%12.3%12.3%12.1%12.4%12.4%12.0%12.2%12.7%12.7%12.9% 13.4%13.6%13.2%13.0%

12.7%13.0%13.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0% 14.0% 16.0%

(8)

We see less movements in the local-foreign ownership which we believe was a result from moderate 2Q18 results. However,

we expect better earnings for SCMA in the coming quarters stemmed by broadcasting rights for Asian Games 2018.

Management indicated that the company could book IDR 200 Bn revenue (vs IDR 50 Bn cost).

BANKING SECTOR

Media Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the media sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

30.1%

30.4%30.5% 30.2%30.4%

30.6% 31.1%

31.4% 32.0%

32.3%32.4% 33.5%

33.2%

32.4%32.4%32.3%32.5%32.4%32.4%32.6%32.5%32.5% 32.8%32.9%

33.3% 33.8%

33.2% 32.9%32.9%

32.5%32.7% 33.5%

32.8%33.0%

28.0%

% Foreign Ownership

0.5%

Average of % local PF

2.6%

Average of % local MF

9.4%

(9)

No significant movement as we see lack of catalyst in the sector. Despite attractive valuation. we remain neutral on the

sector due to weak CPO price which potentially leads to poor profitability from CPO planters (AALI and LSIP). In 2H18, we

expect no significant movement on CPO price as we are moving toward CPO high production cycle.

BANKING SECTOR

Plantation Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the plantation sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

44.3%45.2%43.6% 41.3%42.1%42.3%41.5%

44.1% 42.9%41.9%42.0%44.0%

45.5%44.7% 42.2%

37.1%37.0% 35.2%

33.9%33.7%34.4%34.6%34.4%34.7%35.1%34.3% 36.5%36.4%36.9%35.8%

35.0%36.0%36.5%36.2%35.9%37.0%37.0%37.2%36.6%36.4%36.4%

0.0%

% Foreign Ownership

12.6%12.9%12.5%12.6%12.6%12.9%12.8%

11.7%11.5%11.6%11.5%11.4%11.2%11.2%11.7% 12.4%12.4%12.5%

Average of % local PF

12.4%

12.5%12.2%12.1%

9.9%9.6% 9.5% 10.3%10.8%

11.7%

Average of % local MF

11.9% 11.4%11.4%11.1%

12.2%12.2%

11.5%11.8%

12.4%12.7%12.9%12.3%12.3% 11.8%12.3%12.3%

12.6%12.6%12.5%13.0%13.0%12.9%13.2% 13.3%13.6%

14.1%14.0%14.1%13.9%

(10)

Decent marketing sales was not accompanied by the financial performance. Meanwhile, the market is still digesting the

impact of LTV relaxation as well as higher pricing from 100 bps policy rate hike YTD. In the meantime, we remain cautious

on the sector while monitoring 2H18 marketing sales performance.

BANKING SECTOR

Property Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the property sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

46.9%47.3%46.3%47.3%46.9%46.6%46.6%46.9%46.3%46.4%46.3%46.9%47.9%48.1%47.8%47.7%48.8%49.4%48.9%49.3%48.7%48.8%47.5%47.9%48.3%49.1%49.8% 44.5%

42.3%42.2%41.7% 40.0%

38.8%

35.0%35.2%34.9%34.7%34.7%34.6%34.3%34.3%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0%

% Foreign Ownership

2.1% 2.1% 2.1%2.2% 2.2%

2.3%2.4%2.3% 2.3%2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1% 2.0%

1.9% 1.8%

1.7% 1.7% 1.9%

2.1% 2.3%

2.2%2.4% 2.3% 2.4% 2.4% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.3%2.2%

2.2%2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.2% 2.3%2.3% 2.2%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0%

Average of % local PF

7.9%8.1% 8.5% 8.5% 8.4%

8.2% 8.0% 8.0%

8.5% 8.6% 8.4% 7.8%

7.5% 7.6% 8.0%8.3%

7.3% 6.5% 6.4%

5.8% 5.9% 5.4%

6.0%5.8% 5.2%

4.8%

4.3% 4.2%4.1% 4.3%4.4%4.0% 3.9%4.4% 4.5% 4.8% 5.0%5.0% 4.9%

5.2% 4.9%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0% 10.0%

Average of % local MF

9.4% 9.2% 8.6% 8.6% 8.6%

8.3% 8.1% 8.2%8.0% 8.1% 8.0%8.2% 8.3%8.5% 8.5% 9.0%

9.9%10.3%9.8% 9.7%

9.4% 9.4% 9.6%9.8% 9.9%

10.2%10.4%10.5%10.4%10.3%10.2%10.3%10.2%

10.1%10.1% 9.9% 9.9% 10.0% 9.9% 10.0%10.0%

0.0% 2.0% 4.0% 6.0% 8.0% 10.0% 12.0%

(11)

RETAIL SECTOR

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

We notice an uptick in foreign ownership stemmed by satisfying 2Q18 performance from the majority of retailers. On the

other hand, local MF ownership was possibly dragged down by

LPPF’s

underperforming market expectation in 2Q18.

Welcoming election year, we expect retail consumption to remain strong.

BANKING SECTOR

Retail Sector

Average foreign ownership in the retail sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

67.0% 67.7%67.5%67.8%68.0%

68.3%68.1% 67.3%

67.0%67.4%67.3% 65.8%66.1%

65.4% 65.2%65.2%65.0%

63.9% 64.6%

65.1% 64.2%

62.9%62.9%63.0% 63.7%

63.2% 62.8%63.2%

61.9%61.7%61.7% 62.6%62.3%62.8%

64.7% 65.2%

64.6% 64.3%

63.2%63.0% 63.7%

58.0% 60.0% 62.0% 64.0% 66.0% 68.0% 70.0%

% Foreign Ownership

1.1%1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 1.1% 0.9% 0.9%

1.0% 1.0%

1.0% 1.0% 1.0%0.9% 0.9% 0.8% 0.8%0.8%

0.7% 0.8% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 0.7%

0.8% 0.9%

0.9% 0.9% 1.0%0.9%1.0%

0.9% 1.0% 1.0%

0.8% 0.8%0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 0.8%

0.0% 0.2% 0.4% 0.6% 0.8% 1.0% 1.2%

Average of % local PF

4.6%

4.3% 4.3% 4.4% 4.3% 4.2% 4.2%4.5%4.4% 4.4% 4.5% 4.9% 4.8%

5.2% 5.9%

6.3% 6.4%

5.6% 5.4%5.4% 5.5%5.6% 5.7% 5.7%5.4%5.7% 5.7%5.5% 5.5%5.8% 5.8%5.4%5.8% 5.8%5.3%5.8% 7.0%

7.5% 8.1% 8.2%

7.7%

0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0% 6.0% 7.0% 8.0% 9.0%

Average of % local MF

23.9%

23.3%23.0%23.3%23.5%23.7%23.4%23.3%24.2%

24.9%25.1%25.5%25.2%25.0%25.9%26.4%26.4%27.2%

27.8%28.7%29.2%29.1%29.1%29.0%

29.4%29.3%29.6%29.9%30.0%29.9%29.4%29.3%28.8%28.8%30.2%30.5%30.4% 31.0%

29.9%29.6%29.6%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0%

(12)

TELECOMMUNICATION SECTOR

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Disappointing 2Q18 result triggered capital outflow from the sector despite previous accumulation across the board.

However, as tariff hike was just raised in mid-June, we expect the impact on earnings to be seen in upcoming quarters.

Overall, we remain positive on the sector driven by tariff hike and rising data traffic.

BANKING SECTOR

Telecommunication Sector

Average foreign ownership in the telecommunication sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

86.0%86.1%85.9%86.5%86.5%87.0%86.8%86.7%86.3%86.0%85.8%86.9%86.6%86.6% 84.3%84.7%

85.5%

84.3%84.0% 83.2%

% Foreign Ownership

2.3%

Average of % local PF

4.7%

Average of % local MF

22.6%

22.5%22.6% 22.7% 25.4%25.6%

24.9%25.1% 25.2%

24.7% 24.2%

23.5%23.5% 23.0%

23.5%23.7% 24.0%

24.8%

23.7%23.9%

19.0%

(13)

TOBACCO SECTOR

We see selling pressure from foreign fund slowly wearing off while local funds keep on accumulating. We observe a positive

sentiment on the industry as sales volume has recovered in 2Q18 and is expected to continue in the upcoming quarters.

BANKING SECTOR

Tobacco Sector

Source: KSEI, Sinarmas Investment Research

Average foreign ownership in the tobacco sector

Average local mutual fund ownership

Average local pension fund ownership

Average foreign mutual fund ownership

69.1%69.3%68.6%68.0%68.0%68.2%68.5%

62.9%64.5%64.5%63.6%63.4% 61.8%62.0%63.0%64.1%

66.6%66.5%66.0%65.6%64.5%

55.4%55.2%54.4%54.9%54.7%56.1%55.9%56.0%55.1%53.7%53.1%54.0%53.4%53.4% 51.6%

49.9%48.5% 47.0%45.9%45.5%

0.0% 10.0% 20.0% 30.0% 40.0% 50.0% 60.0% 70.0% 80.0%

% Foreign Ownership

1.7%

1.4% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4% 3.1%

3.0% 3.0%3.2%3.0%3.0% 3.0%2.9%3.0%

2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%3.0% 3.4%3.5%

3.6%3.5%3.7%3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.6% 3.5%3.6%

3.7%3.8% 4.0% 4.0%

4.2% 4.2% 4.2%

0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%

Average of % local PF

10.5%10.8%10.5%11.2% 11.7%11.5%11.5%

16.5% 16.0%16.3%

16.9% 17.9%18.3%18.2%17.6%

16.7% 14.6%14.4%

13.1%12.8% 14.0%

15.8%15.8%15.8%15.4%15.2% 14.4%14.2%

13.5%13.7% 14.8%

15.8%15.9%16.4%16.5% 18.3%

19.5% 20.4%

21.3%21.7%22.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

Average of % local MF

13.8%13.8%13.8%14.1%14.2%14.1%13.7% 21.3%21.2%

20.6% 19.8%

21.8% 20.3%

19.8%20.3%

20.8%21.5%21.5%21.7%21.6%21.7%20.4%20.4%20.0%20.5%20.4%20.7%

21.3%21.5%21.9%21.8%21.5%21.6%21.5%21.4%21.8% 20.6%

19.5% 18.6%

17.9%18.0%

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0%

(14)

INDEX MEMBERS

Sector

Members

Banking

BBRI, BBNI, BMRI, BBCA, BBTN

Cement

INTP, SMGR

Consumer Staples

UNVR, INDF, ICBP, MYOR, KLBF, ROTI

Coal

ADRO, PTBA, ITMG, HRUM, UNTR, DOID

Construction

PTPP, ADHI, WIKA, WSKT

Media

SCMA, MNCN

Plantation

AALI, LSIP

Property

BSDE, SMRA, ASRI, CTRA, PWON

Retail

ACES, MAPI, LPPF, RALS

Telecommunication

TLKM, EXCL

Tobacco

HMSP, GGRM

BANKING SECTOR

(15)

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