INFLUENTIAL FACTORS ON THE PROBABILISTIC DURATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT IN JAKARTA - Repository UNTAR

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CIVIL

ENGINEERING

JOURNAL

Volnme

III

-

l[umber

I

-

March

2012 ISSN 20g9-9513

Civil

Engineering

Journal

is

an internationally

formatted Journal published

by Civil

Engineering Postgraduate Studies of TarumanagaraUniversity

in

cooperation

with

Civil

Engineering

Department

of

Tarumanagara

University.

Civil

Engineering Journal was

first

published

in

November

1995.

In

2010,

Civil

Engineering Journal was published

with

the new format and standard

which

aimed to be an international

level

Journal. For

the subscription

of

Civil

Engineering Journal, please contact the address

below-Board

of

Directors

Editor in

Chief

Managing

Editor

:

Prof.

fr.

Chaidir

A.

Makarim,

MSCE.,

Ph.D.

Prof.

Ir.

Roesdiman Soegiarso,

M.Sc.,

Ph.D.

Prof.

Ir.

Sugandar

Sumawiganda,

M.Sc.o Ph.D.

Prof.

fr.

SofiaW.Alisjahbana, Msc.,

Ph.D.

Prof.

fr.

Ofyar Z.Tamin,

M.Sc.,

Ph.D.

I)r.

Ismeth

S.

Abidin

fr.

Leksmono

S.

Putranto,

M.T.,

Ph.f).

Dr,

Ir.

Fx. Supartono

Prof.

I)r. Ir.

Jeff Budiman,

M.T.

Illinois

Institute

of

Technologt

Ir.

Sugiharto

Alwio

M.T.,

Ph.D.

Queens I and (Jniv ers

ity

of Techno lo gy

International Reviewer

Staff

Editor

Secretary

Januar

Setiawan,

Tomy

Endriko

Yuan T.

Wiharja,

Shopyan

Sauri

Address:

Civil Engineering

Postgraduate

Studies

Taruman

agara

University

Jl. Let. Jend. S. Parman

no.

1, Jakarta-1 1440,Indonesia

Phone: +6221,-5655803, ext. 1300. Fax: +6221 -5 645574

CIVIL

ENGINEERING

JOURNAL

Volume

III

-

l{umber

1

-

March

zAn

CONTEI{TS

Investigation

of

Failure and Prestressed Force at the End

Zone

of

Prestressed Concrete Beam

i

J*-

Roesdiman

Soegiarso

and Linggawan

Optimization of Fly Ash

and Silica Fume as Materials

Substitution

of

Cement

with

Ternary System C-A-S

i

ef.'s*AbdulKarim

Hadi

Operation and Maintenance Role in Evaluation of Urban

Drainage Service Level fr

fu

Bambang E. Yuwono,

Soekrasno

and

Sih

Andayani

Investigation on causes of Tunnel Roof Cave-In Triggered by

Simultaneous Blasting in Dam Project, West lava,Indonesia

Chaidir

An\ryar

Makarim, Dicky Junaidy

and

Gopta Andika

Pratama

Influential Factors on The Probabilistic Duration

of

Construction Project in Jak

arta

I

j --JLLrruJULLrrrJcrA4rLcr

{

f

**-"*r*#

Basuki

Anondho,

Yusi Yusianto, Meiske

Y. Suparmstr:

Lidyawati

Soeleiman

Comparative Evaluations on Transit Fare VS Private Vehicle

Cost in Jakarta

K

Najid

NSN

2089-9s13

Page

I

14

Page 15 - 31

Page 32 - 4A

Page 41 - 50

Page 51 - 65

""_^lTih,i[5ffi_T:l'"iT

l:iHii:llt:

INFLUENTIAL

FACTORS ON

THE

PROBABILISTIC

DURATION OF'CONSTRUCTION

PROJECT

IN

JAKARTA

Basuki Anondho 1, Yusi Yusianto 2, Meiske

Y.

suparman 3, and Lydiawati Soeleima#

Abstract

Estimating construction pfocess

is

somehow similar

to

an art.

This

concept becomes

more appropriate when process estimating is faced with uncertain condition like such in

developing countr5l, Indonesia. The problem is about how to alter the uncertainty into a

certrain probabilistic calculation

which could

be used

in

estimating. The concept

of

probabilistic scheduling method

itself

has _{been developed since then, known} as PERT

(Program

Evaluation Review

Technique),

which

is

commonly

being used

in

manufacture process. Since a construction process is unique, gathering data to calculate

the

optimistic

and the

pessimistic duration,

as

the

method requirement, becomes

difficult. An

alternate solution

to

calculate that type

of

duration

is

proposed by using

some influencing factors. This paper describes the factors identification and reducing

for

each

type

of

probabilistic duration as

a first

step

in

calculating optimistic and

pessimistic duration.

This

research

is

funded

by

the directorate

of

higher education,

education and culture

Ministy

of

The Republic

of

Indonesia under national shategic

competition grant scheme.

Keywords: Factors _{influence, Probabilistic duration, Optimistic, Pessimistic, PERT.}

Introduction

The range

of

the activify

distribution

in

conskuction process becomes an important

estimating part

of

scheduling technique in a generally uncertainty environment as in the

developing

counfiy.

That's

why in

Indonesia, Public Works Department has made a

study

of

the

implementation and formulation

of

national and provincial construction index.

Peter

F.

Drucker

in

his

book The New Realifies mention

the world

economv as a

phenomenon that changed,

from

"international"

to

"transiational". Michael Porter tried

to research in The Competitive of Nations, why some multinational companies succeed

in intemational competition.

In

the

concept

of

construction

project

management,

probabilistic

approach to

accommodate

the

uncertainty

environment

in

construction

planning, where

a

deterministic approaches scheduling technique usually used (Gabriel

A.

Barraza, W.

Edward Back, Fernando Mata,2000). This concept expected to improve the quality

of

the estimator.

I

Senior Lecturer, Civil Engineering Department, Tarum anagaraUniversity,

2

Lecturer, Management Department, Tarumanagara University

3

Lecturer, Psychology Department, Tarum anagira University.

a

CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL. VOIUMC III, NUMbCT 1, MATCh 2012.

On

the other hand, using PERT scheduling techniques

for

the construction activities

have restrictions due to tf,e nature of the

pBnr

method itself and the characteristics

of

the construction process. PERT is based on the probability distribution that requires the

collection

of

data to characterize the uncertainty of the process and there is no standard

method

for

setting probabilistic variable values. While

in

the construction process, the

uniqueness, complexity, and the relatively long process have made data collecting a

difficult

matter.

These characteristics

are

a

problem

in

the

application

of

PERT

method

in

the

construction process. On this basis, this paper describes a model study on the factors

influence that can be use as a consideratiott

io

d"t"t-ioiog

the duration

of

optimistic

and pessimistic duration of an activity in the construction process.

Literature

Review

Competitiveness

by

Porter (1993) is productivity defrned as ouJPut produced

by

labor.

Meaiwhile,

accordirrg

to

the World Economic Forum, national competitiveness-is the

"tifiry

of

the

nationil

economy

to

achieve

high

economic

growth

and

sustainable-Comietitiveness

is

a process

for

achieving a better pu{pose

in

the

futwe

to

increase

gro*tn

and revenue

oi

A"

state. Topics competitiveness

of

a

county

often associated

ioi6

tl"

concept of "competitive advantage" that was introduced by Michael Porter.

In

the

concept

of

competitive advantage,

the

govemment needs

to

tealue

that the

govemment can no longer be driving theit owo economic development through policies

and incentives.

Today,lconomic

divelopment

is

a collaborative process- between the

purti"r

involved

in

the-development process, such as the various levels

of

govenrment,

iorporate,

educational and researchlnstitutions, and commumty organizations' Thus'

the^creation of competitiveness should be a process of bottom (bottoms-up process) that

encourages individuals, businesses and institutions to take responsibility'

competitiveness needs

to

be

addressed

for

the

construction indus-trY in^ lndonesia,

because based on data from the Department of Public'Works, the number of contractors

registered up

to

2010 was a dominant 155,775-business entlty located on the island

of

Jaia

and

beyond.

This

illustrates

the

increasing competition among contractors to

""-p.i"

itcapturing

the market share that cost, quality, and time must be considered'

It

is a ihallenge for

tG

construction industry in improving the competitiveness because

if

a company wants

to

achieve sustained competitive advantage (sustainable competitive

uav*tge1,

they should have and capable

of

managing the qualified workers who have

expertisllstllls and want

to

continue

to

develop

themselves

to

keep track of

technologies, products, and market (ordonez de Pablos and Lytras: 2008). This is where

the main contribution of human resource management for the company's progress.

The conskuction sector affects almost

all

sectors of the economy, such as roads, dams,

irrigation jobs, housing, schools, and other construction work that is the physical basis

forlhe

development and improvement of living standards. The construction industry has

a

very

imporlant

role

for

national development because

it

produces products such as physical infr astructure.

The

role

of

the conskuction sector

in

the national product shown

from

the

two

data

rities

cs

of

s the

rdard l, the

nga

the ;tors

istic

bor.

r the

rble.

ease

ated

the icies r the

rent, hus, that lsia, ;tors Cof

;to

d.

It

;e

if

tive Iave

of

nere Ims, rasis 'has has Cata iDP

DURATT.N oF coNsrRu*o* r^orr}?,i1lHt#f

based _{on constant 2000 prices. First, the role of the construction sector in the GDp data}

at current prices, among others, 7.03 percent

(in

2005),7.52

percent

(in

2006),732

lgrcent

(in2007),8.48

percent (in 2008), 9.91 percent (in 2009), and 10.29 per cent (in 2010). Second, the

role

of

the construction sector

in

the GDP data at constant 2000

prices, among others, 5.92 percent

(in

2005), 6.0g percent

(in

2006),6.20 percent (in

2007),6.29 percent (in

?008 ), 6.44 percent (in 2009), and 6.,q9 percent 1in

zbto;.

notn

the GDP data showed that the role of the construction sector to the national production

is

likely

to increase.

In

terms

of

employment, based

on

data

from the

National Labor Force

Survey

(Sakernas) published

by

BPS, average ratio

of

labor force working

in

the construction

sector

to

the

total

employment

in

2005

to

2011 was about

5.i2

petcent

which

is

dominated by labor with elementary schoor education is about 63.2%.

It

is

a

challenge

for

the

construction

industy

as competitive position

of

business

systems

in a

global _{business environment depends}

oo

th" flexibility,

_versatility,

and

workers performance. For

tha!

there needs to be an effort to improve ttre performance

of the construction workers so that the resulting qualrty can be better.

The activities included

in

_{construction projects have specific behaviors and dynamics,} and specifically,

in

other words

that the

construction project has activities th

at

are

unique. This uniqueness means that the activities are inciuded

in

a construction project

can

vary from

one project

to

another project.

In

the management

to

achieve effective

results required

the

application

of

specific techniques and _{methods (Suharto, Iman,}

1997). Techniques and methods are planning process, which is the first step in the other

processes.

The. pla{ming p-rocess

-is-fundamental processes that

play a role

in

detennining the

achievenient

of

a

goal. Efforts

needed

to

find

out

a

method

that

can improve the

performance

of

planning and control _{that accommodate the number and complexity}

of

the project activities in _{a systematic and analytical term. Especially with}

pERi

_@ro3ect

Evaluation Review Technique)

method this

gives an

activity ctmpletion

timeframe

specified by three values that make up an estimated _{probabilistic distri-bution.}

PERT was

first

developed

in

1958

with

ttre

initial

goal

to

determine the likelihood or

probability

of

reaching a milestone as planned,

it

can be seen that the PERT

method-oriented or focused on the occturence

of

events or event. The orientation

ofthe

event

(event-oriented) is the emphasis on the earliest time and the end time of the occrurence

of

an event. PERT method based on probability calculations, where

it

is

intended to

accommodate

the

situation

of

real

projects

that

contain

high

levels

of

uncertainty

(uncertainty) associated with the aspect of time in each item activities.

In

fact,

this is

usually the case

in

the delivery

of

a project due

to

the nahue

of

the

project, which

is

unique and

dynamic.

PERT

rnethod

has

a

specific

way

to

accommodate

the

turcertainty

in

the

form

of

calculation

time

spatr (range) that can

ultimately result in the likelihood (probability) to meet4he ta-rgsjscieduie.

-

'

It

_{was mentioned above that PERT uses three estimates to provide a period of time}

due

to

the

uncertainty

in

the

implementation

of

an activity.

For

each'activity

generally

I

CfVfL ENGIN€ERINGjOURNAL Volume lll' Number 1' March 2OL2'

densitY probabilitY

2.

optimistic durarion

b pessimistic

duradon

Figure

1' Beta

Distribution

Curve (Soeharto'

Iman'

1997)

o

Optimistic duration time (a)

IfanactivityiscarriedoutinastatethatsuppSltsala-ev;ftrinswentsmoothly,then

the activity

will

be completed in a faster time'

rne

shortest time

lo

complete an activity

called oPtimistic time'

o

Most likelY duration time (m)

Estimated value

of

duration is the most

likely

duration' occurs in reality

when the same

activities performed repeatedly

io.it"*r,ii-#""t

ti*A*

called the most

likely

duration

(most LikelY duration)'

.

Pessimistic duration (b)

An activity

that carries out in unsupportive conditions'

it will

be completed irr a longer

time.

Longer time

i-

"Ji"a

pessimistic values. The purpose

to

estimate the

value

of

giving time span Ganee)

gral

activi!,i;;;;;;;"date^deviations

that mav occur

due

to any uncertainty

inihe

implementatio"' 1.ftt used of those three estimates completion

timeofanactivityinordertod"sc,iuing*o,,jlYTg'possibilityratherthanto

direction

urrrrrun"J**"t

tV

a.ilttt-t;;anner

(HN

Ahufa'

1976)' The time shown

in

the catculation

;ruil;fi

*i

t

pBnr

method

is

not an.absolute 1at11-uut

ttnat

value has range

u".o*oaate

element

of

uncertainty caused

by

many

factors

(multi-varied factors)

*i;;;;.JUv

u variatte

Jled

the standard deviation

and variance'

MethodologY

Thepurposeofthisstudyistofindoutthefactorsthatinfluenceprojectduration

conductedbydataanalysiswithmultivariablestatisticalanalysis.Factorarralysisisused

to

reduce

the

factors

ihat

influence

a

variable

into

several sets

of

indicators (a new

variable),

witfroui

l,oss

of

meaningfut

i"fo'mation'

This

analysis was used

for

initial

studies

in

which

,fr.

iu"iofs

that influence a variable have not been identified

by

either

(explanatory research)'

INFLU€NTIAL FACTORS ON THE PROBABILISTIC DURATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT IN JAKARTA

Literoture Study:

o

Journal

o

Text Book

Identificotion of some

influence _factors by literature

Included support or

o b sta cl e ch q _{ro cte ri sti c}

duestion for each item

Items

for

questioner selection

)n

ty

;er

of

ue

ln

to

ii/n

at ri-le

)n

0n ed )w ial

rer

Figur e 2. Research methodology

Algorithm

Distributing and gathering dota by questioner

Explorotory doto

processing using

factor analysis For determine new

variables

KMO dnd Barlett testing

for validity

Confirmatory dota

processing _using SEM

Analysis of output

I

CfVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL' Volume lll' Number 1' March 2OLZ'

Tlie purpose of factor analysis is as follows:

l.Reducingthenumberofvariablessmallernumberthanoriginvariable.

2.

Using

the

correlation coefficient tesi

to

identifying the ielationship

between the

new variables with form factor

3.

Explore uoa

"orrir*-i"rt

tn" validity and

reliability of the instrument'

4.

Perform Outu

uuflJti*

to aetermine-wtrettrer the results of the factor analysis

can

be generalized into the population'

not or do not have the knowledge or

of

the factors that

will

be formed or

ln

exploratory factor analysis, the researchers did

theory or a hypothesis that make up the structure

formed, so that the new theory'

Inthisstudy,factoranalysisconductedintotwoparts,-thefactorsthatsupportduration

(optimistic) and factors

that

become

"ir""r"r

in

the

calculation

of

the

duration

(pessimisticl.

r*o"riro* a.

ia"ryttv

;;;,"* ;*

be used

to

establish

the optimistic

time (a)

and the

p"rrioririi"

time

(b)

on a

construction proiect'

For

that reason' the

methodology

in

this study divided into sev"rul steps as part

-of

the process to frnd the

factors are:

l.

Identiff

factors through thegtudy of literature

Identification

of

factors

mno"*Jtr,"

duration

of

the project is.obtained from

joumals

*A

i"*tuoot,

as an irrpui for th" preparation of the questionnaire'

2.

PteParation of questionnatlT

Factors influence obtained from the literature study further arranged

in the form

of

a

questi".*"it"-ifrut

*itt

U"-ai.niU"t"d

to

the

relevant parties

with

an

estimated duration

of constructi."

p-:""tt,

in this case the construction project

in iakarta'

3.

The qoestionnaire is organized into three parts:

a)

Project and ResPondents Data'

b)

Datarnputs

d-:

_r^^+^--

41ror

'rts

_the

c)

Data

cdiacteristics which

are

the

factors

that

support

or

consffau

imPlementation of the Project'

4.

Distributing questionnaires

Respondents were the resource persons as

well

as a deoiction of

the performance

targets

of

human resources

i"

il;-;;rrt*ction

industry'

on

the

basis

of

the

respondentsselectedr,o,,,u*o,,g*u"ug"'iurwhowasresponsibleforhis

educational background, has

e"pl-iir", Lott

theoretically and skill capabilities to

manage the estimated duration'

5.

ResPondents may consist of:

a)

project

Leai"r,

u, the person most responsible for the estimated duration

of

the project management

il;;";,

J project leader selected based on his

"*pe,ien"e in managing the overall project'

b)Sitemanaggrorsiteengineer,aSapersonofinterestdirectlywiththe

duration of the Project'

c) Erti*;;;;;" dii"t

p"rron that calculate duration prediction of a project'

6.

The division of the factors

Thedatadividedinto2groupsthatsupporttheimplementationoftheprojept

and data constraints

of

the

pr":"t,]ttJp"tpose

of

iht

diuition

is

reen the

ysis can

edge or

rmed or

luration luration

timistic

;on, the nnd the

d

from

I

he form

vith

an project

rints the

)ilnance

;

of

the

for

his

ilities to

ation

of

C on his

vith

the

sct.

project

rrify the

tNFLUENT|A! FACTORS qN THE pROEAEtttSTtC OURA1ION OF CONSTRUCflON.PROIECT IN JAKARTA

influence

of

factors that support the optimistic duration and influencing factors

that cause obstacles causing pessimistic duration.

7.

Processing Data with Factor Analysis Method

The next stage after the questionnaire data collection, the datawill be processed

by multivariate statistical technique of factor analysis. The goal is to riduce and

categofize variables into new variables that have been identified better.

8.

ConclusionWithdrawal

The results

of

the factor analysis

witl

_{be concluded to be a new indicator as a}

source of information in the next stage of research is the basis for calculating the

duration of probabilistic.

Case Study

Factor identification carried out

with

68 source either text book

or

scientific journal.

Tlis

identification gives 54 factors on questionnaire. The study conducted

in

Jakarta

with62

respondents

Data processing

is

using SPSS 17.00 as a tool. The results

of

processing output data

with

SPSS 17:00 is seen below.

Test the adequacy

ofthe

data

Adequacyof sample data can be _{identified by the value of} Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin

(KMO)

Data can

be

said

to

meet

the

sufficiency

of

the

data

or

assumptions deserve

to

be

factored

if

the value

of KMO

is

greater than 0.5.

KMO

data proiessing _{results are as}

follows:

Table 1.

sPss output:

KMo

_test

for

_{the data}

that

_{supports the}

duration

Kaiser-Meyer-olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy.

Bartlett's Test

of

Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square

Df

sig.

.966

161 2.906

435 .000

Table 2.

sPss

output:

KMo

test data is an obstacle

for

the

duration

From Table

I

and Table

2

above obtained value of KMO> 0.5 so that the factor analysis

conducted showed the sample is feasible to be factored and the factors can

be

analvzed

further. Factor group

is a

collection

of

variables that have

a

value greater ttran b.SS

Kaiser-Meyer-olkin Measure of Sampling Adequ acy.

Bartlett's Test

of

Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square

Df

.799

I

correlation to the formation of a new factor with dimensions of constituent factors

afe as

follows:

After18iterationofarrtiimagerotatedmatrix,supportingfactorsthatinfluencethe

optimistic

duration;"*;

gto"lt

of factors as new variable:

CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL' Volume lll' Number 1' March 2o12'

Table3.SPSSou@utfordimensionsupportingfactorsdurationindicators

ComPonent Items .085

.r93

.262 -.060 .184 .086 .228 -.043 .L7 5 .087 .065 -.002

.1 81

.343

.382 .124

.098

.r37

l

$$:tSiiiiri *t6_s:ffi -.011 .152 .205 .262 .206 .r29 -.064 .309 .125

.07

|

.297 .400 .396 .130 .206 .295 .066 .283 .391 .045 .202

.r7 4

.362 .425

.r46

.078 .240

.26r

.068 .083 .153 .434 .132 .206 ff:i3fi$ .288 .047

.\62

.1L2 .469 .411 -.088 .450 .127 .497 .202 .285

il

lrst6

:...i-r;:;I:iiil i i::t :f

$ffi

,ii.il#".*##

R"*tding

duration

of

previous

Project organizatron The learning curve Experience

Learnmg time

Unit

of time Teamwork

tJse of aPProPriate human

resources

The company's PolicY Human Resource management Responsibility

Discipline employees Management tools Labor ProductivitY

Skill

workers

Resource

Availabilify

Flow of information

Acceleration strategy Decision-making

Understanding the condition

of the Project

Relations Project work

A

positive attitude

ParticiPants

ConsistencY teamwork Use of technologY

Acceleration events

Implementation

of

Construction Methods

Effectiveness of the work

Education workers

Law apPlicable

Prerequisites

rygtkt*

.122 .L25 .455 .150 .205 .444 .110 .350 .222 .329 .378 .2A6 .124

.t 18

.530

.306

.27 6

.325 .101

.r66

.185 .155 .282 illrtl",.#E .543 .142 .237 .227 .049 .433 .239

.17 4

.378 .078 .407 .378 .006 .292 .4A4 .440 .269 lfsp''fii-{ffi .48s

.05 1

.299 .240 .277 .332 .204 .224 .281 .345 .368 .239 -.009 .450 .488 .398 .259 .450 .399 .188 .041

are as

ce the

rs

ou*lsi,,i|:,iiil_T:niT#i,'J",ii:lxl1l:

Iteration for obstacles factors gives 4 groups

of

factors as a _{new variable that influence}

the _{pessimistic duration:}

Table 4.

sPss output

for

dimensional constraint length composer

factor

indicators

Interpretation

of Integrated new variables

endicators)

Based on the dimensions

of

drafting formations above factors, six variables occur as

new variables that influence the optimistic duration and four other more occur as new

variables/indicators

that

influence

the

pessimistic duration. Each influen

ce

variable/

indicator in both optimistic and pessimistic duration group needs a proper nomenclature

that

will

use

for

further

function.

Naming the

vaiiables should

reier

to

the

origin

variable source,/ sources.

After trace back the literature source. a propose of new vanable/ Indicator name in this

case study shown

in

Table 7

for

influence indicator

for

optimistic _{duration. and shown}

in table 8

for

_{influence indicator for pessimistic duration. These new ten variables were}

occurred base

on

number

of

data.

A

different number

of

data could

give a

different

number

of

new

groups.

In

that

case, naming

a

new

indicator should

be

conducted

carefully

to

get a proper name. _{Thus, literature sources have}

to

_{be keeping along the}

CIVIL ENGINEERING JOURNAL Volume lll' Number 1' March 2012'

Table 5. Indicators

for

the

duration

optimistic

Table 6. Indicators

for

the

duration

pessimistic

Confirmatory

Analysis

for Intergrated

New Variables

Basedontheresultsofpreviousgxp|oratoryana$sigconfirmatorywasconductedto

show

the form

of

ntil

"*iuUle

that

consists-

of

several constituent

-Furtherrnore, the AMOS

forrnations formed bv the

INFLUENTIAL FACTORS ON THE PROBABILISNC DURATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT IN JAKARTA

program make chart _{that shows relationships between factors}

indicators forming.

Specifi cation Notation :

Recording

duration

of

previous

Project Organizatron Learning cun/e Experience Learning time Teamwork

The

use

of

appropriate

human resources

The company's policy

A1

M

A3

A4 A5

B1

82

B3

Human Resource

rnanagement

84

Responsibility

85

Management

tools

Cl

Labor

productivify

_C2

Skilled

workers

r

C3

Availability

of

resources

C4

Acceleration

strategy

D I

Decision

making

D2

Understanding the condition

of the

project

_D3

Relations project

work

D4

Use of

technology

El

ffi:ft3lnil:il'

F?

Legislation in

force

F2

Figure 3.

AMos

output

of

sEM

Diagram

for

optimistic

duration

Based

on SEM

diagram

for

the

optimistic

duration above can

be

summarized as

follows:

o

The experience

of

the project's performance

is

_affected

by

_{the variable learning}

curve and leaming time

(1,:

0.83)

'

The human resource management are most influenced by the proper use of human

resources and responsibilities

(1,:

0.86)

The quality of human resources are _{most affected by the skills of workers}

(1.:0.g6)

The

management _{decision-making shategies}

that were most

_af,fected

bv

_the

acceleration (1,

:

0.80)

The use of _{technology most affected by the acceleration of activity (), = 0.g2)}

o

o

lucted to

I

CIVIL€NGINEERING JoURNAL Volume lll' Number 1' March 2012'

.

The external regulations most affected by the legislation in force

(t

= 0'95)

o

The

correlation between the indicators

for

the most optimistic duration occurred

between

i'or"ut#"ormanagement

a""ili*-*uting

witi

the use of technology

(L:

0.89)

Furthermore, here is a diagram for the duration pessimistic AMOS:

Specification Notation: Managerial uncertain Unexpected occturence

Working hours ate not

sure

Scheduling error

The waiting time booking

Picture is less clear

HolidaY

Political

changes

D

Weather

Estimated unlogic

Dependence

subcontractors

Constlrrction failwes

A1

A2

A3

B1

B2 B3

C1

C2

C3

D1

D2 D3

Figure4.AMosoutputofSEMDiagramforPessimisticduration

BasedonSEMpessimisticdurationdiagramabovecanbesummarizedasfollows:

r

The risk management is most affected by the uncertain working hours

(l':

0'81)

as

well

as the managerial uncertainty

(l': 0'80)'

l

.

'

The

informatiori;r**

is most

urr.rt"a

uy ine nictulg is less clear

()':

0'85)'

.

The external

A"#t

most influenced by the weather (1":.0'75)'

oTheestimates"**"uinfluencedbyexpectationsunlogic(}':0.57).

o

The

correlation;;;th.

indicators for the most pessimistic duration is between

-ccurred

sv(tr-A1

A2

A3

B1

B2 B3

CI

C2 C3 D1

D2

D3

5.

J.81) as )

letween

",*#i,Ti:5in:i:i;ixI:,'.H?if Hil:

CONCLUSION

l-

Data processing result gives six new influent indicators

for

optimistic duration

and _{four indicators for pessimistic duration which are:}

Optimistic duration has correlation characteristic:

a)

ol

has good correlation

with

45

as also

02

with

84. 03 with

c3.

04

with

Dl.

05

with E2 ando6 with F2.

b)

01

has also good correlation to

03.

as also

02

with 03.

o4

and

05. 03

.

with

04

and

05. 04

with

05

and

06.

Any

new influence indicator

for

optimistic _{duration that has a good correlation}

with

other new indicator should not be used together in any purpose.

Pessimistic duration has correlation characteristic:

c)

Pl

has good correlation with

43

as also p2 with 83. p3 with

c3.

p4 with

D1.

d)

PZ has also _{good correlation to} P3 and p4.

Any

_{new influence indicator for pessimistic duration that has a good correlation}

with

other new indicator should not be used together in any purpose.

Lesson learning shows that number

of

data influences the output on number

of

group.

Furttrer study on quantification the range of uncertainty could be generated base

on this preliminary study.

2.

3.

4.

5.

Experience

of

ect perforrnance

Management of human resources

The quality of human resources

Management decision-makin Use of technolo

Risk Manasement

information systems

I

CfVf L ENGINEERING JOURNAL' Volume lll' Number 1' March

2Ot2'

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INFLUENTIAL FACTORS ON THE PROEABILISTIC DURATION OF CONSTRUCTION PROJECT IN JAKARTA

ne

(inerja

ya

h

',aporan

ia

ta;

ecasting

ruction

;yakarta.

r of Key

rnent