Hold Dec 2018 TP (IDR) 1,850 Consensus Price (IDR) 2,193 TP to Consensus Price -15.6% vs. Last Price +4.5%

(1)

Company Report | Mar 21, 2018

(BSDE)

Tantangan Stagnasi Kelas Menengah

Atas

Hold

Dec 2018 TP (IDR)

1,850

Consensus Price (IDR)

2,193

TP to Consensus Price

-15.6%

vs. Last Price

+4.5%

Shares data

Last Price (IDR)

1,770

Price date as of

Mar 19, 2018

52 wk range (Hi/Lo)

1,935 / 1,560

Free float

39.0%

Outstanding sh.(mn)

19,247

Market Cap (IDR bn)

33,297

Market Cap (USD mn)

2,419

Avg. Trd Vol - 3M (mn)

19.22 Avg. Trd Val - 3M (bn)

34.31 Foreign Ownership

51.3%

Property

Real Estate Owner & Developer

Bloomberg

BSDE.IJ

Reuters

BSDE.JK

Michael Tjahjadi

+62 21 797 6202, ext:114

michael@nhsec.co.id

Bumi Serpong Damai Tbk | Summary (IDR bn)

Source: Company Data, Bloomberg, NHKS Research

Share Price Performance

YTD

1M

3M

12M

Abs. Ret.

4.1%

-2.7%

2.9%

-3.5%

Rel. Ret.

5.2%

3.2%

0.9% -17.2%

Tercapainya Marketing Sales karena Faktor Temporer

Pada FY 2017, BSDE berhasil mencatatkan penjualan sebesar Rp10,4 triliun

(+67% y-y), dan laba bersih Rp4,9 triliun (+172% y-y). Target marketing

sales pun tercapai dengan nilai Rp7,23 triliun (+16% y-y) pada 2017.

Namun, tercapainya marketing sales didorong oleh penjualan lahan

sebesar Rp3,1 triliun yang naik drastis dari tahun sebelumnya sebesar

Rp1,25 triliun. Secara tidak langsung, hal ini menunjukkan turunnya

performa penjualan produk residensial meskipun BSDE telah menjalankan

program marketing seperti price lock.

Memperkuat Pendapatan Berulang

Pada 2018, target marketing sales BSDE flat dibandingkan tahun lalu di

angka Rp7,2 triliun. Penjualan properti yang cenderung melambat

memasuki tahun politik dan daya beli properti, khususnya segmen

menengah-atas yang belum pulih, menjadi tantangan bagi BSDE pada

2018.

Untuk mengimbangi kondisi properti saat ini, BSDE memanfaatkan tren

positif okupasi perkantoran untuk memperkuat pendapatan berulang.

BSDE mengakuisisi beberapa lantai MSIG Tower dan Bakrie Tower pada

akhir 2017 dan awal 2018. Pendapatan sewa pada 4Q17 tumbuh 20%, dan

kami memprediksikan pertumbuhan pendapatan berulang mencapai 36%

pada FY2018.

Target Harga Rp1.850

Kami menggunakan estimasi discount to RNAV sebesar 57,0% (rata-rata 3

tahun terakhir) sebagai basis metode valuasi. Target harga ini

mengimplikasikan P/E 2018E sebesar 13,0x (vs 12,4x saat ini).

2016/12A

2017/12A

2018/12E

2019/12E

Revenue

6,603

10,347

8,406

8,851

Revenue growth

6.3%

56.7%

-18.8%

5.3%

EBITDA

2,677

5,374

3,759

4,039

Net profit

1,815

4,942

2,747

2,913

EPS (IDR)

94

257

143

151 EPS growth

-15.2%

172.3%

-44.4%

6.0%

BVPS (IDR)

1,265

1,517

1,660

1,811

EBITDA margin

40.5%

51.9%

44.7%

45.6%

Net Profit Margin

27.5%

47.8%

32.7%

32.9%

ROE

7.8%

18.5%

9.0%

8.7%

ROA

4.9%

11.7%

5.8%

5.7%

ROIC

7.8%

14.3%

8.1%

7.9%

P/E

18.6x

6.9x

12.4x

11.7x

P/BV

1.4x

1.2x

1.1x

1.0x

EV/EBITDA

15.3x

7.5x

11.3x

DPS (IDR)

5.0

4.3

3.6 Dividend yield

0.3%

0.2%

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Sekilas tentang BSDE

BSDE merupakan salah satu perusahaan pengembang properti terbesar di Indonesia,

dengan proyek andalan: kota mandiri BSD City. BSDE adalah salah satu anak usaha dari

Sinar Mas Group, salah satu perusahaan konglomerat terbesar di Indonesia.

Proyek-proyek yang dikembangkan meliputi properti perumahan, bisnis dan komersial yang

sering dikemas dengan konsep kota mandiri di berbagai kota utama di Indonesia.

Diantara pengembang properti lainnya, BSDE memiliki persediaan tanah kedua terbesar,

yang mencakup hampir 4.000 hektar. Selama dua tahun terakhir, BSDE menggencarkan

promosinya melalui program Price Amnesty dan Price Lock. Program-program tersebut

menawarkan pengurangan harga berupa diskon, atau voucher belanja, maupun

hadiah-hadiah yang menarik.

Industri Pengembang Properti Indonesia di ASEAN

Indonesia merupakan negara terluas yang memiliki persediaan tanah dan jumlah

penduduk terbanyak di ASEAN. Hal tersebut menjadikan Indonesia sebagai lokasi yang

baik bagi bisnis pengembang properti. Pengembang properti Indonesia memiliki

persediaan tanah yang lebih besar daripada pengembang di negara ASEAN. Seperti BKSL,

mempunyai persediaan lahan 14.666 hektar dan BSDE 3.966 hektar.

Sektor properti di Indonesia dan Filipina menjadi yang paling bersaing di antara negara

ASEAN. Pengembang-pengembang properti di negara tersebut mencatatkan gross

margin yang lebih baik walaupun mempunyai total aset yang lebih rendah dari

negara-negara lainnya.

ASEAN Property Developer

Source: Bloomberg, NHKS research

Company

Market Cap

(USD mn)

Total Asset

(USD mn)

Sales

Growth

Gross

Margin

Operating

Margin

Net Profit

Growth

ROE

P/E

Dividend

Yield

BSDE

2,427 3,382

56.71%

73.4%

48.9%

172.3%

18.5%

6.9x

0.2%

PWON

2,205

1,527 4.67%

57%

46.0%

26.5%

19.6%

17.0x

0.7%

CTRA

1,619

2,147

-10.31%

49%

27.5%

0.6%

8.7%

22.3x

0.4%

SMRA

975 1,537

-4.01%

48%

26.1%

254.0%

6.1%

35.9x

0.5%

Singapore

Capitaland Ltd

11,811

45,972

-12.23%

40%

47%

30.3%

8.6%

10.1x

2.7%

Malaysia

SP Setia Bhd

2,965

6,826

-8.82%

33%

22%

-5.2%

8.7%

13.3x

5.0%

IOI Properties Group Bhd

2,343

7,823

38.36%

44%

32%

-27.7%

4.7%

11.2x

3.6%

Thailand

Land & Houses PUB Co Ltd

4,211

3,362

16.76%

34%

30%

21.4%

21.6%

12.6x

6.4%

WHA Corp Ltd

1,836

2,260

-46.72%

47%

39%

12.7%

14.0%

18.0x

5.1%

Philippines

(3)

Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research

Annual Sales | 2014 - 2017

Operational Performance

Quarterly Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 4Q17

Marketing Sales (IDR bn) | 1Q15 - 4Q17

Source: Company, NHKS research

Annual Net Profit | 2014 - 2017

Source: Company, Bloomberg, NHKS research

Gross, EBIT & Net Margin | 2014 - 2017

Sales Breakdown | 4Q17

(4)

Multiple Valuation

Forward P/E band | Last 3 years

Discount to NAV band | Last 3 years

Rating and target price

Date

Rating

Target Price

Last Price

Consensus

vs Last Price vs Consensus

03/21/2018

Hold

1,850

1,770

2,193

+4.5%

-15.6%

Closing and Target Price

Source: NHKS research

Analyst Coverage Rating

Source: Bloomberg

Source: NHKS research

NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia (NHKS) stock ratings

1. Period: End of year target price

2. Rating system based on a stock’s absolute return from the date of publication



Buy

: Greater than +15%



Hold

: -15% to +15%



Sell

: Less than -15%

(5)

Summary of Financials

DISCLAIMER

This report and any electronic access hereto are restricted and intended only for the clients and related entity of PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia. This report is only for information and recipient use. It is not reproduced, copied, or made available for others. Under no circumstances is it considered as a selling offer or solicitation of securities buying. Any recommendation contained herein may not suitable for all investors. Although the information here is obtained from reliable sources, it accuracy and completeness cannot be guaranteed. PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, respective employees, and agents disclaim any responsibility and liability for claims, proceedings, action, losses, expenses, damages, or costs filed against or suffered by any person as a result of acting pursuant to the contents hereof. Neither is PT NH Korindo Sekuritas Indonesia, its affiliated companies, employees, nor agents liable for errors, omissions, misstatements, negligence, inaccuracy arising herefrom.

Last Price (IDR) 1,770

Target Price (IDR) 1,850 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

Rating: Hold ROE 7.8% 18.5% 9.0% 8.7%

ROA 4.9% 11.7% 5.8% 5.7%

ROIC 7.8% 14.3% 8.1% 7.9%

EBITDA/Equi ty 11.5% 20.1% 12.3% 12.1%

In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E EBITDA/As s ets 7.2% 12.8% 7.9% 7.9%

Sales 6,603 10,347 8,406 8,851 Ca s h Di vi dend (IDR bn) 96 83 83 70

Growth (% y/y) 6.3% 56.7% -18.8% 5.3% Di vi dend Yi el d (%) 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.2% Cos t of Revenue (1,882) (2,757) (2,348) (2,433) Pa yout Ra ti o (%) 5% 2% 3% 2%

Gross Profit 4,721 7,590 6,059 6,418 DER 31% 31% 31% 31%

Gross Margin 71.5% 73.4% 72.1% 72.5% Net Gea ri ng 53% 48% 46% 44% Opera ti ng Expens es (2,276) (2,528) (2,654) (2,779) LT Debt to Equi ty 27% 24% 25% 25%

EBIT 2,445 5,062 3,405 3,639 Ca pi ta l i za ti on Ra ti o 24% 24% 24% 24%

EBIT Margin 37.0% 48.9% 40.5% 41.1% Equi ty Ra ti o 64% 64% 65% 67% Depreci a ti on 232 312 354 400 Debt Ra ti o 20% 20% 20% 21%

EBITDA 2,677 5,374 3,759 4,039 Fi na nci a l Levera ge 160% 157% 156% 152%

EBITDA Margin 40.5% 51.9% 44.7% 45.6% Current Ra ti o 294% 237% 251% 270% Interes t Expens es (638) (549) (652) (717) Qui ck Ra ti o 82% 93% 82% 60%

EBT 2,086 5,228 3,108 3,296 Ca s h Ra ti o 75% 87% 74% 51% Income Ta x (29) (39) (140) (149) Ca s h Convers i on Cycl e 1,316 898 1,140 1,267 Mi nori ty Interes t (241) (246) (221) (235) Pa r Va l ue (IDR) 100 100 100 100

Net Profit 1,815 4,942 2,747 2,913 Tota l Sha res (mn) 19,247 19,247 19,247 19,247

Growth (% y/y) -15.2% 172.3% -44.4% 6.0% Sha re Pri ce (IDR) 1,755 1,770 1,770 1,770

Net Profit Margin 27.5% 47.8% 32.7% 32.9% Ma rket Ca p (IDR tn) 33.8 34.1 34.1 34.1

In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

Ca s h 4,181 6,557 5,468 3,272 Pri ce /Ea rni ngs 18.6x 6.9x 12.4x 11.7x Recei va bl es 401 490 586 594 Pri ce /Book Va l ue 1.4x 1.2x 1.1x 1.0x Inventori es 7,444 7,915 8,449 8,696 Pri ce/Revenue 5.1x 3.3x 4.1x 3.8x

Total Current Assets 16,341 17,965 18,513 17,357 PE/EPS Growth -1.2x 0.0x -0.3x 1.9x

Net Fi xed As s ets 14,900 19,266 21,640 24,113 EV/EBITDA 15.3x 7.5x 11.3x 11.3x Other Non Current As s ets 7,050 8,720 9,213 10,883 EV/EBIT 16.8x 8.0x 12.5x 12.6x

Total Assets 38,292 45,951 49,367 52,353 EV (IDR bn) 41,017 40,443 42,519 45,683

Pa ya bl es 261 1,768 226 351 Revenue CAGR (3-Yr) 4.8% 22.6% 10.6% 10.3% ST Debt 1,121 2,051 2,026 2,206 EPS CAGR (3-Yr) -12.3% 9.0% 8.7% 17.1% Other Current Li a b. 4,184 3,751 5,121 3,867 Ba s i c EPS (IDR) 94 257 143 151 LT Debt 6,527 7,027 7,956 8,661 Di l uted EPS (IDR) 94 257 143 151 Other Non Current Li a b. 1,846 2,158 2,095 2,407 BVPS (IDR) 1,265 1,517 1,660 1,811

Total Liabilities 13,939 16,754 17,424 17,491 Revenue PS (IDR) 343 538 437 460

Shareholders' Equity 24,353 29,197 31,943 34,861 DPS (IDR) 5 4 4 4

In IDR bn 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E 2016/12A 2017/12A 2018/12E 2019/12E

Net Income 1,796 4,920 2,747 2,913 DCF (IDR bn)

Deprec & Amorti za ti on 232 312 354 400 NOPAT 2,411 5,024 3,252 3,475 Chg. In Worki ng Ca pi ta l (2,637) (625) (1,809) (2,169) +Depr./Amor. 232 312 354 400

CFO (610) 4,607 1,292 1,144 -CAPEX (126) (142) (2,728) (2,872) Ca pex (126) (142) (2,728) (2,872) -Incr. (Decr.) i n Worki ng Ca p. (2,637) (625) (1,809) (2,169)

CFI (1,467) (3,520) (3,284) (4,230) (Unl evered) FCFF (121) 4,569 (931) (1,166) Di vi dends Pa i d - (96) (83) (83) WACC

Net Borrowi ng (PMT) (466) 1,502 903 885 Cos t of Debt (Ta x Adj.) 10.6% 8.9% 9.4% 9.4%

CFF (375) 1,157 903 891 Cos t of Equi ty (COE) 10.5% 11.7% 12.3% 12.3%

Net Changes in Cash (2,451) 2,244 (1,090) (2,196) WACC (%) 10.5% 11.1% 11.6% 11.6%

RIM

Sprea d (FROE-COE) (%) -2.3% 8.6% -2.9% -3.2% Res i dua l Income (IDR bn) (507) 2,096 (844) (1,015)

By Geography % Shareholders % Equi ty Cha rge (IDR bn) 2,322 2,846 3,591 3,928

Indones i a 48.7 PT Pa ra ga Arta mi da 26.6 EVA

Uni ted Sta tes 43.7 PT Eka centra Us a ha ma ju 25.0 Inves ted Ca pi ta l (IDR bn) 30,022 32,001 38,275 41,924 Luxembourg 2.0 PT Serea s i Ni a ga Sa kti 3.1 ROIC-WACC (%) -2.5% 4.6% -3.1% -3.3% Norwa y 1.7 PT Si ma s Tungga l Centre 2.0 EVA (IDR bn) (751) 1,471 (1,205) (1,388)