PEMANFAATAN TEKNOLOGI PANAS BUMI DI INDONESIA

(1)

PEMANFAATAN

TEKNOLOGI

PANAS

BUMI

DI

INDONESIA

Disampaikan oleh:

I

MADE

RO

SAKYA

– Deputi Direktur Teknologi

‐

PT

PLN

(Persero)

Pada Seminar

:

Geotermal dan Biofuel sebagai sumber Energi Masa Depan

Terbarukan dan Ramah

Lingkungan

Universitas Gunadarma – 23

Nopember 2009

KWH PER CAPITA DI BERBAGAI NEGARA

8 176 26 12,924.22 15,210.95 15,938.44 24,011.23 31,147.29 Si USA Kuw ait Qatar Norw egia Islandia 9 96 5 2 1 602 26 1,275.91 1,914.27 2,175.03 3,226.55 3,724.98 5,748.14 5,773.62 6,621.44 7,328.28 7,671.30 8,176.26 Vi Mesir Thailand China Suriname Malaysia Hongkong Inggris Saudi Arabia Prancis Brunei Singapura 1124 1 0 1 91 74 6 7 4 5 44 36 27 23 1 9

Weighted average : 3,240.3 kWh/capita

8.85 148.05 466.03 496.32 556.10 602.26 Chad Bangladesh India Indonesia Philipina Vietnam 217 171 1 60 158 155 1 5 1 Posisi 158

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Malaysia Brasil Thailand China Amerika Serikat Jepang Eropa 100

Electrification Ratio vs. GDP

Brasil Afrika Selatan India Philipina Bolivia INDONESIA G Asia Rusia 60 80 e c tri fi c a ti o n R a ti o [ % ] Nigeria Ghana 40 100 1.000 10.000 100.000 El

GDP per Kapita [ US$ ]

Source : IEA, World Energy Outlook 2006

Installed Capacity vs. Population

Amerika Serikat 1.000 10.000 Malaysia INDONESIA Thailand Argentina Brasil India Rusia Jepang China Philipine Inggris Vietnam Nigeria Perancis Korsel Pakistan 10 100

n

st

al

le

d

C

a

p

a

ci

ty

[

G

W

]

Kenya Myanmar Nigeria 1 10 100 1.000 10.000

In

Population [Million]

Source: IAEA, US DOE

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CO2 Emission per Capita

North America r1 14.00 16.00 18.00 Europe r3 China CH Japan JA Malaysia MY 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 CO2 em issio n p e r capi ta [tCO2/capi ta] Indonesia ID India IN 0.00 2.00 Bangkok Phnom Penh Ban Mabtapud Ho Chi Minh City CAMBODIA VIETNAM

THAILAND LAOS Manila

Philipines South China Sea TOTAL •Install Cap : 29.987 MW •Trans Lines : ‐500 KV : 4.983 kms ‐150 KV : 23.106 kms

Generation And Transmission

Pacific Ocean Khanon Songkhla Erawan Bangkot Lawit Jerneh WEST MALAYSI A Penang Kerteh Kuala Lumpur NatunaAlpha Kota Kinibalu BRUNEI Bandara Seri Begawan Bintul u EAST MALAYSIA Kuchin g Banda Aceh Lhokseumawe Medan Duri Padang Bintan SINGAPORE Samarinda Balikpapan Bontang Attaka Tunu Bekapai KALIMANTAN Manado Ternate HALMAHERA Sorong Duyong West Natuna Port Dickson Port Klang Mogpu Dumai Batam Guntong ‐70 KV : 5.052 kms Kalimantan : •Gen : 1.000 MW •150 kV: 1.264 kms • 70 kV: 123 kms _{Maluku :} Jayapur Grissik Palembang Semarang Jambi Balikpapan Banjarmasin SULAWESI Ujung Pandang BURU SERAM IRIAN JAYA Jakarta J A V A Surabaya Bangkalan BALI SUMBAWA Pagerungan FLORES I N D O N E S I A MADURA Jamali : Sumatera : •Gen : 4.634 MW •150 kV: 8.521 kms • 70 kV: 310 kms • 70 kV: 123 kms Sulawesi : •Gen : 1.130 MW •150 kV: 1.769 kms • 70 kV: 962 kms y p a Merauke Nusa Tenggara: Maluku :

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Hydro 15% CCPP Nat Gas 20% Geothermal 2% Gas Turbine 5% Diesel 12%

KAPASITAS TERPASANG PEMBANGKIT PLN

20% 2%

Jawa,

Madura

&

Bali

(JAMALI)

Region

(18.371

MW)

7 7 CCPP Fuel Oil 13% SPP Nat Gas 4% SPP Fuel Oil 5% SPP Coal 23%

Indonesia

(25,340

MW)

OUTSIDE

OF

JAMALI

(6,969

MW)

Sourcee: PLN (2008) 7

ELECTRICITY

DEMAND

PROJECTION

11,000 13,000 15,000 17,000 19,000 MW 50 60 70 80 90 100 TWh

INDONESIA

OUTER JAWA BALI

60,000 65,000 70,000 MW 350 400 TWh Beban puncak Penjualan Energi 5,000 7,000 9,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 20 30 40 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 MW 150 200 250 300 350 TWh

JAWA BALI

20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 45,000 50,000 55,000 100 150 200 250 300 Peak Load Energy Demand 10,000 15,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 100 20,000 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 100 Notes :

Asumption : Annual Economic Growth 6.2%/thn, elasticity = 1.56

Projection :

 Electricity demand grow at 9.69% annually. Demand in 2008 was 128.9 TWh, and demand projection in 2018 is expected 325.2 TWh, and 381.3 TWh in 2020

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Additional Capacity 2009 - 2018

70 173 122 6 Micro HEPP Diesel PP 17,753 3,934 8,494 1,015 3,835 16,487 438 220 3,991 905 Coal STPP GTPP CCPP Geothermal HEPP IPP PLN 35,274 22,168 ‐ 5,000 10,000 15,000 20,000 25,000 30,000 35,000 40,000 Total MW

Apakah Geothermal

atau Panas Bumi ?

• Geo

‐

thermal

‐

Geothermal

power

(from

the

Greek roots geo meaning earth and

Greek

roots

geo,

meaning

earth,

and

thermos,

meaning

heat)

is

power

extracted

from

heat

stored

in

the

earth.

‐

Wikipedia

• …

of

or

relating

to

the

heat

in

the

interior

of

the

earth

‐

wordnetweb.princeton.edu

E

f

i i th E th’

• Energy

from

reservoirs

in

the

Earth’s

surface,

such

as

geysers

or

ground

water

that

(6)

GEOTHERMAL SYSTEM MODEL

A

‐

B

=

normal

temperature

gradient

(fluid

inflow

and

water

pressure

increase)

B

‐

C

=

very

high

temperature

gradient

and

permeable

(reservoir)

C

‐

D

=

ascending

of

hot

fluid

at

relatively

constant

temperature

D

=

location

where

hot

water

begins

to

boil,

as

water

pressure

decrease

11

Sumber : Mary H. Dickson and Mario Fanelli, What is Geothermal Energy?

Maluku

DISTRIBUTION OF GEOTHERMAL

IN INDONESIA

Kalimantan Sulawesi Jawa Bali _Flores Irian Jaya Alor

Total

Location

:

256 Schemes

Total

Potential

:

27 GWe

Timor

Non

Volcanic

Location

:

53 Schemes

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BENTUK SUMBER GEOTHERMAL DI

PERMUKAAN BUMI

Air/Uap panas

Fumarol

Geyser

Lumpur

Panas

SEULAWAH AGAM

160 MW SIBAYAK12 MW

SARULA 330 MW

Ready for Exploitation Production Stage Under Tender

GEOTHERMAL DI INDONESIA

KARAHA 400 MW KAMOJANG 150 MW DIENG 60 MW LUMUTBALAI (UNOCAL) ULUBELU 110 MW LUMUT BALAI 110 MW ULUMBU 10 MW LAHENDONG I, II,III 60 MW BEDUGUL 175 MW UNGARAN 50 MW TAMPOMAS 50 MW JAILOLO 75 MW CISOLOK 45 MW DARAJAT 255 MW WAY. WINDU I 110 MW PATUHA 400 MW MATALOKO 2.5 MW NGEBEL 120 MW WAY. WINDU II 2 x 110 MW

Total

Installed

Capacity

January

2009

:

1182

MW

Tangkuban

Parahu

55 MW

SALAK 375 MW

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Fuel

mix

will

be

changed

as

the

followings:

• Coal

46%

in

year

2008

to

become

63%

in

year

2018.

• Fuel

oil

25%

in

year

2008

to

become

1%

in

year

2018

• Geothermal

5%

in

year

2008

to

become

12%

in

year

2018

INDONESIAN FUEL MIX

y

• Gas

and

LNG

17%

in

year

2008

to

become

17%

in

year

2018

2008 BATUBARA 46% HYDRO 7% PUMPED STORAGE 0% GEOTHERMAL 2018 HYDRO 6% PUMPED STORAGE 1% GEOTHERMAL 12% Coal HSD 16% MFO 9% GAS 17% LNG 0% 5% NUCLEAR 0% HSD 1% MFO 0% GAS 15% LNG 2% BATUBARA 63% NUCLEAR 0%

**)Sources: Long‐term Development Plan of PLN

Coal

15

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Temperatur :

1. At

30 ‐

69ºC

: thermoculture (Hot

Spa,

Pemandian

TEKNOLOGI GEOTHERMAL

(

p ,

Air

Panas,

Memasak dll)

2. At

70 ‐

140ºC

: Pemanas air

&

ruangan,

Pengering

3. At

140 ‐

220ºC:

Pengering,

Process

Heat,

binary

PP

4. At

220+ºC:

Steam

turbine,

binary

PP

or

process

steam

17

a)

Flashed

Plant

TEKNOLOGI GEOTHERMAL

b)

Binary

Plant

c)

Combined

Cycle

PP

(10)

Proses Pemanfaatan Panasbumi

CYCLONE ELECTRICAL

Geothermal Power Plant Cycle



Resource

_development



Steam

gathering

t

(SAGS)

U P T O 4 K M CYCLONE SEPARATOR CONDENSER PSI vv v vv v V V V V V V GENERATOR PUMP STEAM TURBINE COOLING TOWER PUMP CYCLONE SCRUBBER STEAM ST E A M

TURBINE STEAM EXHAUST

CONDENSATE COLD CONDENSATE

system (SAGS)



Power

generation

Facilities

FLASHING TO STEAM-BRINE MIXTURE IN BOREHOLE RESERVOIR BRINE BRINE INJECTION WELL CONDENSATE INJECTION WELL

GEOTHERMAL POWER PLANT

www.eas.asu.edu

Example

:

1. Kawerau Geothermal

PP

– New

Zealand

2. Ngawha Geothermal

PP

– New

Zealand

(11)

Combine

Cycle

Ormat

ARSEPE

2009

Example

:

Leyte

– Philippine

21

Teknologi

1. Proven Technology

2. Tidak tegantung dengan musim

KEUNTUNGAN & MANFAAT

2. Tidak tegantung dengan musim

3. Berperan sebagai base load ( CF > 90% ).

4. Dapat dikembangkan secara bertahap ( 250 kW –

110 MW )

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Ekonomi

1. Biaya O & M rendah.

2. Biaya bahan bakar tidak ada

KEUNTUNGAN & MANFAAT

3. Meningkatkan tingkat sekuriti energi nasional

4. Menggunakan energi setempat

5. Menggerakkan perekonomian setempat

23

Lingkungan

1. Emisi

sangat

rendah

dibandingkan

dengan

pembengkit berbahan bakar fosil

KEUNTUNGAN & MANFAAT

pembengkit berbahan bakar fosil.

2. Menggunakan tanah yang tidak luas dibandingkan

dengan pembangkit lain.

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KEBUTUHAN LAHAN

10

12

14 sands

Land

Usage

≥

0

2

4

6

8

10 Th

ou

s

Geotherm al Flash Plant Geotherm al Binary Plant Geotherm al Flash Plant

Coal Plant Nuclear_Plant Hydroelect_ric_Plant Solar

Thermal

Plant Solar PV

Plant Wind Farm Land Usage (m2/GWh) 160 170 290 5,700 1,200 250,000 3,200 7,500 1,305

Land Usage (m2/MW) 1,260 1,415 2,290 400,003 10,000 1,200,000 28,000 66,000 3,140

(from Geothermal Power Plant, Ronald DiPippo, Second edition)

25

LINGKUNGAN

1000

CO2

(kg/MWh)

(from Geothermal Power Plant, Ronald DiPippo, Second edition)

Geothermal

PP

emits

CO2

at

<

10 %

to

300

400

500

600

700

800

900 that

of

CO2

emitted

by

other

PP

Types

0

100

200

Coal‐ Fired Steam Plant Oil‐Fired Steam Plant Gas Turbine Flash‐ steam Geo PP The Geysers dry‐ steam Closed loop binary Geo PP EPA average, all US Plants

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Resiko dan Tahapan Pengembangan Panasbumi

Pre‐feasibility Exploration Feasibility

(Geology, surface geochemistry, engineering & environ. Impact pipeline routes, weather &

Discharge testing

Studies & tests

Reserves Confirmation Exploration drilling (resource identification)



Resiko tertinggi

berada di hulu



Catatan hasil

Pemboran

, hydrology, preparation of exploration budget Confirmation Environmental impact assessment Feasibility study of power plant, etc

Construction Design Commissioning & production Environmental impact report Preliminary design Bid d

Construction & plan installation Contract management supervis Development drilling (resource delineation & quantification)

Pemboran

Indonesia: rata-rata

< 10 Mwe per sumur

(SKM, 2007)



Lama

Pengembangan

sampai operasi 5-7

tahun

Bid document preparation Contract award (plant & civil)

Pipeline routing & design Production & injection wells Final design management, supervis ion of construction, inspecti on

Field management & long term testing

Fase dengan

resiko tertinggi

Investasi Panasbumi

(greenfield dev.)

1. Lead time yang panjang;

• Pre Feasibility Study

: 1 tahun

• Exploration

: 2 – 3 tahun

• Development / Construction

: 2 – 3 tahun

Total lead time :

5 7 tahun

Total lead time :

5 – 7 tahun

2. Risks

• Resources (Exploration & Exploitation) Risks

• Construction Risk

• Perceived Buyer (PLN) Risk

• Country Risk.

3. IRR = Riskless Rate + Risk Premium

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Estimasi Investasi Panasbumi

Jenis Biaya

(dalam juta

Total Biaya

USD/MW)

G&G Studies, Exploration &

_{1 1 1 2}



Resource

characteristics



Site specifics



Market parameters

G&G Studies, Exploration &

Development Drilling

1,1 – 1,2

Pipelines – Steam Above

Ground System (SAGS)

0.4 Power Plant , inc. Engineering

& Project Management

1,3 – 1,4

Total Biaya Pengembangan

2 8 – 3 0

Diperlukan investasi lebih dari USD 13 Milyar

untuk membangun 4,733 MW PLTP

Total Biaya Pengembangan

2,8 3,0

Geothermal

Project

Geothermal

Project

Geothermal

Project

Geothermal

Project

Resource Feasibility Resource Feasibility Study Approved Study Approved Submit Notice of Submit Notice of Intention To Develop Intention To Develop Commercial Commercial Operations Operations EPC Bids EPC Bids Concession acquisition Concession acquisition

and initial exploration and initial exploration

EPC Bids EPC Bids Financing Financing Plans Plans Project Project Construction Construction Finalizing Costs Finalizing Costs

•• ConfirmConfirm ResourceResource •• FinancingFinancing PlansPlans

Complete Construction

•• CloseClose FinancingFinancing

On Final Phase On Final Phase ‐‐PGFPGF Commercial Commercial Sign Sign ~ 2 Yrs ~ 2 Yrs Close Close At least 3 Yrs At least 3 Yrs Resource Resource Development Development Construction Starts Construction Starts •• RoadsRoads •• LandLand PurchasePurchase •• DrillDrill WellsWells

Commercial Commercial Operations Operations EPC Bids EPC Bids Financing Financing Plans Plans Project Project Construction Construction

Coal/Gas

Power

Coal/Gas

Power

Project

Construction Starts Construction Starts Sign Sign PPA PPA Close Close Financing Financing Conditions Precedent Conditions Precedent