-2.5 -2 -1.5 -1 -0.5 0 0.5 1 1.5 2 2.5 J u ly 2 0 0 8 S e p N o v J a n 2 0 0 9 M a r M a y J u ly S e p N o v J a n 2 0 1 0 M a r M e i J u l S e p N o v J a n 2 0 1 1 M a r M e i
Current B M K G BMKG
NCEP/NOAA
BoM/POAMA
Jamstec
moderat e La Nina (-1.8) moderat e La
Nina (-1.05) moderat e La
Nina (-1.2)
Moderat e La Nina (-1.84) Strong
La Nina (-2.3) Strong La Nina (--2.35) Moderat e La Nina (-1.8)
LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG
(
UPDATED DECEM BER 6, 2010
)
Prediksi La Nina:
M oderate – Strong
1.
NCEP/ NOAA (USA)
Dec10 M oderate La Nina
Jan-M ay11 Strong La Nina
2.
Jamstec (Japan)
Dec10-Feb11 Strong La Nina
M ar-M ay11 M oderate La Nina
3.
BoM (Australia)
Dec10-Jan11 M oderate La Nina
Feb-M ay11 W eak La Nina
4.
BM KG (Indonesia)
Dec10-M ar11 M oderateLa Nina
Prediksi La Nina:
M oderate – Strong
1.
NCEP/ NOAA (USA)
Dec10 M oderate La Nina
Jan-M ay11 Strong La Nina
2.
Jamstec (Japan)
Dec10-Feb11 StrongLa Nina
M ar-M ay11 M oderate La Nina
3.
BoM (Australia)
Dec10-Jan11 M oderate La Nina Feb-M ay11 W eakLa Nina
4.
BM KG (Indonesia)
Dec10-M ar11 M oderateLa Nina
N ORM AL
M oderate El Nino
Weak El Nino
Weak La Nina
M oderate La Nina
Strong La Nina
BMKG
Institusi Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 NCEP/NOAA -1.6 -2.1 -2.7 -2.9 -2.6 -2.4 Jamstec -2.35 -2.2 -2.05 -1.8 -1.65 -1.55 BoM -1.2 -1.05 -0.95 -0.9 -0.75 -0.6 BMKG -1.84 -1.80 -1.79 -1.68 -1.51 -1.38
Strong El Nino
Wat er Vapor m ass flow s from Pacific OceanIndonesia
Wat er Vapor m ass flow s from Indonesia Pacific Ocean
Conclusion:
W ater Vapor mass flow s from Pacific Ocean
Indonesia(Adding the precipitation in most of Indonesian region)
WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean
SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean
DMI = Dipole Mode Index
The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure Anomaly
and Dipole M ode
Anomaly Indonesia’s SST : +1.06oC
Nino3,4 : -1.23oC
WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean
SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean
DMI = Dipole Mode Index
The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure
Indonesia’s SST : 29.930Celcius
N ORM AL
D M ( + )
K uat
D M ( -)
K uat
BMKGPrediction of IOD Index:
Institusi Dec-10 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 BoM -0.13 0 0.11 0.10 -0.12 -0.24 BMKG -0.12 -0.1 -0.05 0 -0.05 -0.1
PREDICTIONS OF DIPOLE M ODE INDEX
(UPDATED DECEM BER 6, 2010)
Wat er Vapor mass from Indonesia t o East Africa
Wat er Vapor mass from East Africa t o Indonesia
• DM Index St andard: -0.40C s/ d +0,4 0C
• Predict ion (Aust ralia – BM KG): Dec 2010:
DM (-) Wat er Vapor mass from Indian Ocean t o w est ern part of Indonesia
Conclusion
: Adding t he
precipit at ion in West ern part
PERIODE La NINA
SST Anomalies (0 C)
Central Pacific (El Nino/ La
Nina)
Indonesian SST Indian Ocean (Dipole Mode)
M AM 1 9 5 4 – DJ F 1 9 5 7 -2 .0 -0 .4 -0 .1
ASO 1 9 6 2 – DJ F 1 9 6 3 -0 .7 0 .1 0
M AM 1 9 6 4 – DJ F 1 9 6 5 -1 .2 -0 .5 0 .8 J J A 1 9 7 0 – DJ F 1 9 7 2 -1 .3 0 .1 0 .4
AM J 1 9 7 3 – AM J 1 9 7 6 -2 .1 0 .5 0 .5
SON 1 9 8 4 – ASO 1 9 8 5 -1 .1 0 -0 .4
AM J 1 9 8 8 – AM J 1 9 8 9 -1 .9 0 .1 -0 .1
ASO 1 9 9 5 – FM A 1 9 9 6 -0 .7 0 .2 0
J J A 1 9 9 8 – M J J 2 0 0 0 -1 .6 0 .4 -0 .5 ASO 2 0 0 7 – AM J 2 0 0 8 -1 .4 0 .2 -0 .1
N ove m be r 2 0 1 0 De c e m be r 4 2 0 1 0
-1 .4 2 -1 .2 3
+1 .0 2 (w a rm ) +1 .0 6
-0 .0 4 -0 .4 6
Source : NOAA
Weak EN/LN±0.5 – 1.00C Moderate EN/LN±1.0 – 2.00C
Strong EN/LN > ±2.00C
Level of EN/LN & DM
Dipole Mode (DM) Normal ±0.40
SPATIAL ANOM ALY SST PREDICTIONS From NCEP (USA)
(
UPDATED DECEM BER 6 2010
)
Sea Surface Temperature
Anomaly Predictions around
Central Pacific on December
2010 shows cold
conditions and continue
until May 2011.
Meanwhile, Sea Surface
Temperature Anomaly
Predictions around
Indonesia’s archipelago still
in warm conditions until
Elnino/ La Nina Predictions from BM KG and International Institutions :
Nino34 index predict ed as strong La Nina condition on Decem ber 2010 according by Jam st ec (Japan), m eanw hile NCEP (USA), POAM A (Aust ralia), dan BM KG predict ed as M oderate La Nina. Generally, predict ions of Nino34 indices on Novem ber 2010 unt il April 2011 show s m oderat e t o st rong La Nina.
Impacts of El Nino/ La Nina di Indonesia :Im pact s of El Ñino/ La Nina are very influenced by t he Sea surface t em perat ure around Indonesia’s M arit im e Cont inent
December 2010 :
Sea surface t emperat ure anomaly over Nino34 Region predict ed as
negat ive value (show s t he moderat e La Nina condit ion),w hile t he sea
surface t em perat ure around Indonesia’s archipelago st ill w arm. This
condit ion gave indicat ion t hat almost of Indonesian region relat ive w ill be
w et t er in t he 2010/ 2011 w et season compared in normal years.
CONCLUSION
Surface Ocean Nino34
Summarized by POAMA
Lanina Predict ions from
Int ernat ional Inst it ut ions
All of intenational institutions
Sumber IRI
Source IRI
Predict ion Table of Elnino/ La Nina
Predictions of La
Nina condition will
be dominant until
April 2011. After
that will be on
Summary
•
Predict ions of La Nina phenom enon w ill be
dominant unt il M arch-April 2011 and aft er t hat
w ill be on Neut ral condit ions
•
Predict ions of Dipole M ode phenom enon w ill be
on negat ive value on next several m ont h.
•