Update Nino 030111 EN

-2.5

Current BM KG

BMKG

LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG

La Nina Prediction: M oderate – Strong 1. NCEP/ NOAA (USA)

 Jan11 M oderate La Nina

 Feb-M ay11 Strong La Nina

 Jun11  M oderate La Nina

2. Jamstec (Japan)

 Jan-Feb11 Strong La Nina

 M ar-Jun11 M oderate La Nina

3. BoM (Australia)

 Jan-M ar11 M oderate La ina

 Apr-M ei11 W eak La Nina

 Jun11 Neutral condition

4. BM KG (Indonesia)

 Jan-Jun11  M oderate La Nina La Nina Prediction:

M oderate – Strong

1. NCEP/ NOAA (USA)

 Jan11 M oderate La Nina

 Feb-M ay11 Strong La Nina

 Jun11  M oderate La Nina

2. Jamstec (Japan)

 Jan-Feb11 Strong La Nina  M ar-Jun11 M oderate La Nina

3. BoM (Australia)

 Jan-M ar11 M oderate La ina

 Apr-M ei11 W eak La Nina

 Jun11 Neutral condition 4. BM KG (Indonesia)

 Jan-Jun11  M oderate La Nina

N ORM AL Strong El Nino

Moderate El Nino

Weak El Nino

Weak La Nina

Moderate La Nina

Strong La Nina

BMKG

LA NINA PREDICTIONS FROM 3 INTERNATIONAL INSTITUTIONS AND BM KG (UPDATED JANUARY 3, 2011)

Water Vapor mass flows from Indonesia Pacific Ocean

Water Vapor mass flows from Pacific OceanIndonesia

Conclusion:

W ater Vapor mass flow s from Pacific OceanIndonesia

WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean

SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean DMI = Dipole Mode Index

The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure Anomaly

and Dipole M ode

Anomaly Indonesia’s SST : +0.17o_C

Nino3,4 : -1.15o_C

WTIO = Western Tropical Indian Ocean

SETIO= Southeastern Tropical Indian Ocean DMI = Dipole Mode Index

The Current Condit ion of Sea Surface Temperat ure

Indonesia’s SST : 28.830_Celcius

-1.2

Past Analysis BoM BMKG

N ORM AL

Predictions of Dipole M ode Index on next several months

in neutral condition, not affect ing significantly to rainfall in west ern part of

Indonesia

Predictions of IOD index:

PREDICTIONS OF DIPOLE M ODE INDEX (UPDATED JANUARY 3, 2011)

Water Vapor mass from Indonesia to East Africa

PERIOD of

Indonesian SST Indian Ocean (Dipole Mode)

Source : NOAA

Weak EN/LN±0.5 – 1.00_C Moderate EN/LN±1.0 – 2.00_C

Strong EN/LN > ±2.00_C

Level of EN/LN & DM

Dipole Mode (DM) Normal ±0.40

SPATIAL ANOM ALY SST PREDICTIONS From NCEP (USA)

(

UPDATED JANUARY 3, 2011

)

Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Predictions around Central Pacific on January

2011 shows cold

conditions and continue until June 2011.

Meanwhile, Sea Surface Temperature Anomaly Predictions around

 Elnino/ La Nina Predictions from BM KG and International Institutions :

 Nino34 index predicted as strong La Nina condition on January 2011 according by Jamstec (Japan),

meanwhile NCEP (USA), POAM A (Australia), dan BM KG predicted as M oderate La Nina. Generally,

predictions of Nino34 indices on January until June 2011 shows moderate t o strong La Nina.

 Impacts of El Nino/ La Nina di Indonesia :

Impacts of El Ñino/ La Nina are very influenced by the Sea surface t emperature around Indonesia’s M aritime Continent

January 2011 : Sea surface t emperature anomaly over Nino34 Region predict ed as negative value (shows the moderate La Nina condition),while t he sea surface temperat ure around Indonesia’s archipelago still warm. This

condit ion gave indication that almost of Indonesian region relative will be wetter in the 2010/ 2011 w et season compared in normal years.

CONCLUSION

Surface Ocean Nino34

Summarized by POAMA

Lanina Predictions from

International Instit utions

Source: IRI

Source : IRI

Prediction Table of Elnino/ La Nina

Predictions of

La

Nina

condition will

be dominant until

April 2011

.

After

that will be on

Summary

•

Predictions of La Nina phenomenon will be

dominant until M arch-April 2011 and after that

will be on Neutral conditions

•

Predictions of Dipole M ode phenomenon will be

on negative value on next several month.