Morning Brief
JCI closed at sluggish state as the worse performance by the basic industry, the
rupiah depreciation, and the net foreign sell. Top Losers: Basic Industry (-2.76%),
Infrastructure (-1.14%), Property (-0.91%)
Most of the global markets were in bullish territory yesterday. The U.S. markets ended mixes as China lowered tariffs of 15% on the U.S. imported cars and the
dispute on the U.S.-Mexico security border. The subdued trade war tension also
backed the rally in the European market, particularly the basic industry sector. The Asian markets closed mixed amid the resignation of BOI Governor.
Today’s Outlook: Digest the U.S. and China Trade Deals
We estimate JCI to rally with the support range of 6035-6042 and the resistance
range of 6117-6122. The positive sentiment comes from the updated trade
relation between the U.S. and China. China is reported to cut the tariffs on the U.S. automotive from 40% to 15%. It indicates the progress of the trade deals between the world's two largest economies after both countries' presidents met
during G-20.
From the domestic outlook, the rupiah depreciation in recent days is forecasted to halt. The rupiah weakens from 12,200 to 14,600 per USD. The better trade deals between the U.S. and China will strengthen the rupiah.
Stocks Recommendation
INCO Last = 3070
Analysis Global nickel prices are estimated to rally
along with the cut tariffs on the U.S. automotive by Chinese authorities.
Range 3040 – 3250
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 3040
MEDC Last = 700
Analysis Global crude prices rally further. One of the
biggest oil producer nation, Libya, stated that its biggest onshore is closed due to impairment.
Range 680 – 750
Action Trading Buy. Cut Loss If Below 680
WSKT Last = 1795
Analysis Based on the updated development of 2019
presidential election, both candidates show
their commitment to infrastructure
development. It cushions business risks faced by construction companies in ahead years.
Range 1775 – 1900
Action Trading buy. Cut Loss If Below 1775
Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg
Source: Bloomberg
Sector Rotation
Source: Bloomberg
Company News
Domestic & Global News
Incomes from Cigarette's Excise Amounts to IDR120.62 Trillion
The income deriving from cigarette's excises per December 2018 amounts to IDR120.62 trillion or 81.37% of the 2018 state budget (APBN) target of IDR148.23 trillion. Meanwhile, the total excise income is IDR126.51 trillion or 81.41% of the target of IDR155.40 trillion. Based on the result of the research. The average portion of cigarette's excise income to the state
excise is at 94%-95%. (Kontan)
China Reportedly Plans to Slash Auto Tariffs
Chinese Vice Premier Liu He has told U.S. officials that China plans to reduce tariffs on American auto imports from 40 percent to 15 percent in a move that could break an escalating trade war between the world's two largest economies, The Wall Street Journal reported, citing a person familiar with the negotiations. The vice premier told Treasury Secretary Steven Mnuchin and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Lighthizer of the decision in a call late Monday, the Journal reported. (CNBC)
PTPP : Invests IDR1.27 Trillion in Infrastructure Sector
In 2019, PTPP allocates IDR1.27 trillion out of the total capex of IDR8.73 trillion for investing in the infrastructure sector. Of note, the capex allocation is based on the estimated growth of 5.3% in Indonesia's economy and the
3x-4x industrial growth in 2019. The capex is derived from
internal cash, bonds, and bank loans. (Bisnis Indonesia)
MAPI : Allocates IDR800 Billion for Business Expansion
MAPI allocated the capex of IDR800 billion in 2019 for its business expansion. The capex is targeted to launch new stores of 50,000 sqm. Until November 2018, it launched
113 new stores; ahead year-end, it aggressively
accelerates such strategies as promotion, marketing, and merchandising.
JPFA : Boosts Production through Close House
JPFA plans to change the scheme of its poultry' cage from open houses to close houses. The new scheme has a better
per-meter density and results in much quality chickens.
The change in scheme is a gradual implementation due to the high prices of chickens. (Bisnis Indonesia)
TAXI : Obtains Approval for Bonds Restructuring
TAXI through the general meeting of bond-holders (RUPO)
has obtained approval to restructure its bonds worth IDR1 trillion. IDX previously suspended its stocks due to TAXI's incapability of paying of its bonds' interest rates. Of note, the restructuring conversed bonds worth IDR400 billion to
without-interest-rate bonds worth IDR600 billion.
Global Economic Calendar
Source: Bloomberg
Corporate Calendar
Date Event Company
Monday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting AGRO
10 - Dec Annual Shareholder Meeting DSNG
IPO Listing Date SOTS, URBN
Cum Dividend Date SCMA (IDR20 per share)
Tuesday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting BJBR
11 - Dec Cum Dividend Date BATA (IDR8.7 per share)
INDY (IDR54.4 per share)
Cum Rights Offering Date META (1 per 6, subscription price IDR200)
Wednesday Annual Shareholder Meeting FISH
12 - Dec IPO Listing Date ZONE
Thursday Annual Shareholder Meeting BABP
13 - Dec Rights Listing Date IKAI
Friday Extraordinary Shareholder Meeting MAPB, NIPS
14 - Dec Annual Shareholder Meeting ADRO, CSIS
Source: Bloomberg
Date Country JakartaHour Event Period Actual Consensus Previous
Monday JPN 06:50 GDP SA QoQ 3Q F -0.60% -0.50% -0.30%
10 - Dec JPN 06:50 GDP Annualized SA QoQ 3Q F -2.50% -2.00% -1.20%
JPN 06:50 BoP Current Account Balance Oct ¥1309.9b ¥1410.2b ¥1821.6b
UK 16:30 Industrial Production MoM Oct -0.60% 0.20% 0.00%
Tuesday UK 16:30 Jobless Claims Change Nov 21.9k -- 20.2k
11 - Dec UK 16:30 ILO Unemployment Rate 3Mths Oct 4.10% 4.10% 4.10%
GER 17:00 ZEW Survey Expectations Dec -17.5 -24 -24.1
Wednesday JPN 06:50 Core Machine Orders MoM Oct 7.60% 10.10% -18.30%
12 - Dec JPN 11:30 Tertiary Industry Index MoM Oct 1.00% -1.10%
USA 20:30 CPI MoM Nov 0.00% 0.30%
Thursday GER 14:00 CPI MoM Nov F 0.10% 0.10%
13 - Dec GER 14:00 CPI YoY Nov F 2.30% 2.30%
EU 19:45 ECB Main Refinancing Rate 13-Dec 0.00% 0.00%
EU 19:45 ECB Marginal Lending Facility 13-Dec 0.25% 0.25%
EU 19:45 ECB Deposit Facility Rate 13-Dec -0.40% -0.40%
USA 20:30 Initial Jobless Claims 8-Dec -- 231k
Friday JPN 06:50 Tankan Large Mfg Index 4Q 18 19
14 - Dec JPN 07:30 Nikkei Japan PMI Mfg Dec P -- 52.2
CHN 09:00 Retail Sales YoY Nov 8.80% 8.60%
CHN 09:00 Industrial Production YoY Nov 5.90% 5.90%
JPN 11:30 Capacity Utilization MoM Oct -- -1.50%
JPN 11:30 Industrial Production MoM Oct F -- 2.90%
EU 15:30 Markit Eurozone Manufacturing PMI Dec P 52 51.8
GER 15:30 Markit Germany Manufacturing PMI Dec P 52 51.8
USA 20:30 Retail Sales Advance MoM Nov 0.20% 0.80%
USA 21:15 Industrial Production MoM Nov 0.30% 0.10%
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