Company Update
Delta Dunia Makmur
Bloomberg: DOID.IJ | Reuters: DOID.JKSamuel Research 18 April 2017
Sharlita Malik +62 21 2854 8339
Timing to collect!
Kami tetap optimis DOID mampu membukukan kinerja positif di 1Q17. Dilatarbelakangi solidnya kinerja operasional, meningkatnya
Overburden Removal (OB), dan EBITDA yang diperkirakan tumbuh solid, kami merevisi keatas estimasi di 2017F. Mempertahankan BUY dengan TP menjadi Rp 1,600.
Penambahan kontrak hingga 2025. Pertumbuhan yang signifikan didukung oleh kontrak baru yaitu, Berau ( hingga 2025) , Tadjahan Antang Mineral (hingga 2024), dan Sungai Danau Jaya (hingga 2023), DOID berpeluang meningkatkan produksi. Kami estimasikan 2017F volume Overburden Removal (OB) meningkat 25% yoy mencapai 359 juta bcm. Disisi lain, ekstraksi batubara DOID, kami estimasikan meningkat 18% yoy menjadi 40 juta ton.
Tariff yang diuntungkan dengan harga batubara. DOID diuntungkan dengan biaya pertambangan batubara yang memiliki tiga tingkatan dan ditentukan berdasarkan rata-rata selama tiga bulan terkahir. 1.) Tier 1: harga batubara < USD 65 blended average tariff akan terdiskon 6%. 2) Tier 2: harga batubara antara USD65-75 3).Tier 3: Harga batubara berada di atas USD75 blended average tariff akan meningkat 6%. Kami melihat harga batubara akan stabil di level US$ 70 untuk tahun 2017, membuat DOID berpotensi tetap menikmati tariff di Tier 2 atau Tier 3.
Peningkatan EBITDA 2017F seiring penguatan harga batubara dan solidnya management. Dilatarbelakangi meningkatnya OB (+25% yoy), harga batubara yang lebih stabil (USD 70/ton), pengurangan diskon tarif yang disertai efisiensi biaya (cash cost 2017F USD 1.03/ton), DOID berpeluang memiliki marjin EBITDA yang lebih tinggi di 2017F. Kami asumsikan EBITDA marjin mencapai 35.7% di FY’17F (FY16: 35.4%, FY15: 33%). Serta laba bersih 2017 kami estimasikan naik mencapai USD 89 juta (16A: USD 37 juta, 15A: rugi bersih USD 8 juta).
Menaikkan TP menjadi Rp 1,600. Kami menggunakan pendekatan DCF dan merekomendasikan Buy untuk DOID, dengan meningkatkan TP menjadi Rp 1,600 (+ 40%) merefleksikan 11.2x PE ’17 (30% diskon terhadap UNTR). Adupun resiko investasi terletak pada 1) berkurangnya kontrak akibat melemahnya harga batubara ke bawah USD 60/ton, 2) biaya produksi yang lebih tinggi dari estimasi.
Target Price Rp 1,600 Last Price Rp 1,145 Potential Upside 40% JCI Index 5,427 Share isued (bn) 8.33 Market Cap. (Rp tn) 9.53 52-Weeks High/Low 1200/106
Avg Daily Vol (mn) 60.98
Free Float 60.6%
Nominal Value Rp 50
Book value/share ‘17 Rp343
Relative to JCI Chart
Company Background
Shareholder Structure
Northstar Tambang Persada
Ltd 39.3%
Others 0.1%
Public 60.6%
BUY (Maintain)
PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) merupakan peruhaan induk dengan fokus investasi di jasa pertambangan. Melalui anak usahnya PT Bukit Makmur Mandiri (BUMA)
1 2 3 4 5
Aug-16 Nov-16 Feb-17
H u n d re d s JCI DOID
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp1,145 per share)
Y/E Dec (USD mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Sales
566
611
762
795
EBITDA
187
216
272
273
Net Profit
(8)
37
89
93
EPS (US$/sh)
(0.001)
0.004
0.011
0.011
BV per share (US$/Sh)
0.010
0.015
0.025
0.037
EV/EBITDA (x)
3.2
5.0
4.1
3.7
P/E Ratio (x)
(4.0)
13.0
8.3
7.9
P/BV Ratio (x)
0.4
3.9
3.5
2.4
Delta Dunia Makmur
DOID:IJ | DOID.JKFigure 1. Client Breakdown by sales
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 2. OB and coal removal mn tons and average rate USD/ton
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 3. Revenue USD mn and EBITDA margin
Source: Company, SSI Research
Berau 56% Adaro 14% Kideco 14% SDJ 6% TAM 6% Other 4% $1.60 $1.65 $1.70 $1.75 $1.80 $1.85 $1.90 $1.95 $2.00 200 240 280 320 360 400 440
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
OB and coal removal mn tons (LHS) Average rate USD/ton (RHS)
20.0% 24.0% 28.0% 32.0% 36.0% 40.0% $0 $100 $200 $300 $400 $500 $600 $700 $800 $900
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E 2019E
Delta Dunia Makmur
DOID:IJ | DOID.JKFigure 4. Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage, and Net Gearing ratios
Source: Company, SSI Research
0% 200% 400% 600% 800% 1000% 0.0 1.0 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.0
2014 2015 2016E 2017E 2018E
Delta Dunia Makmur
DOID:IJ | DOID.JKYr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Revenue 566 611 762 795 Net Income (8) 37 89 93 COGS 440 447 540 553 Depreciation & amort. 71 52 92 96 Gross profit 126 164 222 242 Others (26) 9 1 12 Gross margin (%) 22.2 26.8 29.2 30.5 Working capital 9 26 (7) (0)
Operating profit 87 122 178 175 Operating Cash Flow 45 124 175 201
Operating margin (%) 15.5 20.0 23.4 22.0 Net - Capital expenditure (23) (34) (110) (110)
EBITDA 187 216 272 273 Investing Cash Flow 11 2 (97) (95)
EBITDA margin (%) 33.0 35.4 35.7 34.4 Net Change In Debt (66) (91) (68) (75) Other Income (Expenses) (93) (9) (49) (37) Others financing 5 4 3 3 Pre-tax profit (6) 61 129 137 Financing Cash Flow (61) (87) (65) (72)
Income tax - net (3) (24) (40) (44) Net Cash Flow (4) 39 12 33
Net profit (8) 37 89 93 Cash Beginning 75 71 110 122 Net profit margin (%) (1.5) 6.0 11.6 11.8 Cash Ending 71 110 122 155
Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Cash & ST Investment 71 110 122 155 ROE -9.8% 30.3% 42.3% 30.8% Receivables 139 133 150 152 ROA -1.0% 4.6% 10.7% 10.8% Inventories 20 21 20 20 Revenue Growth (%) (6.9) 0.6 34.0 4.3 Others 37 35 35 35 EBITDA Growth (%) 0.4 1.5 43.5 0.5
Total Current Assets 308 327 357 392 EPS Growth (%) (150.5) n.a 141.5 5.2
Net fixed assets 379 361 380 394 Interest coverage (x) 1.9 2.1 3.6 4.7 Other assets 145 109 96 81 Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.6 3.0 1.9 1.6
Total Assets 832 797 832 867 Net Gearing (%) 698.8 382.2 182.3 90.4
Payables 52 67 79 93
ST. debt and curr. maturity 50 71 69 47 Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities 26 21 23 34 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E
LT. debt 614 501 436 382 Rupiah avg. (USD/IDR) 13,400 13,600 13,200 12,800 Other long term liabilities 30 35 38 41 Newcastle price US$/ton 59 60 70 70
Total Liabilities 747 675 622 564 Overburden (MnTons) 273 287 359 362 Total Equity 85 121 210 303 Coal getting (MnTons) 33 34 40 42 Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow
DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or
issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and
Research Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,
Banking, Consumer [email protected] +6221 2854 8148
Rangga Cipta Economist [email protected] +6221 2854 8396
Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382
Akhmad Nurcahyadi, CSA Auto, Aviation, Cigarette, Construction
Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144 Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339
Nadya Swastika Research Associate [email protected] +6221 2854 8338
Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380 Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395
Fachruly Fiater Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8325
Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372
Wahyu Widodo Marketing [email protected] +6221 2854 8371
