DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR
Bloomberg: DOID.IJ | Reuters: DOID.JKSamuel Equity Research
21 March 2017
www.samuel.co.id
Sharlita Malik +62 21 2854 8339
Strong Result FY’16
Dilatarbelakangi
kinerja FY’16 yang diatas estimasi, meningkatnya
Overburden removal (OB), dan harga batubara yang lebih stabil kami
estimasikan EBITDA DOID akan membaik di 2017F. Merekomendasikan
BUY dengan meningkatkan TP menjadi Rp 1,050 merefleksikan PE’17
8.4x.
Kinerja FY’16 diatas estimasi. DOID membukukan laba bersih positif di
FY16 sebesar USD 37 juta (FY’15: Rugi Bersih USD 8 juta). Laba bersih ini
diatas estimasi, mencerminkan 108% dari estimasi kami. Sejalan dengan
level top line, pendapatan DOID meningkat 8% yoy menjadi USD 611 juta.
Dengan adanya kontrak baru yang signifikan di 2016, serta didukung dengan
harga batubara yang membaik DOID mampu membukukan kinerja positif di
FY’16.
Overburden removal (OB) 2017F naik 29.8% yoy. Hingga Dec
’16, DOID
mencatatkan peningkatan OB sebesar 10% yoy, mencapai 299.8 juta bcm.
Didukung dengan adanya kontrak baru dari ADRO (hingga 2020) dan
Angsana Jaya (hingga 2018), DOID berpotensi meningkatkan produksi.
Kami estimasikan 2017F OB akan meningkat 29.8% yoy menjadi 361 juta
bcm. Disisi lain, ekstraksi batubara DOID, kami estimasikan meningkat 31%
yoy menjadi 46 juta ton.
Peningkatan EBITDA 2017F seiring penguatan harga batubara.
Dilatarbelakangi meningkatnya OB (+29.8% yoy), harga batubara yang lebih
stabil (USD 65/ton), pengurangan diskon tarif yang disertai efisiensi biaya
(cash cost 2017F USD 1.05/ton), DOID berpeluang memiliki marjin EBITDA
yang lebih tinggi di 2017F. Kami asumsikan EBITDA marjin mencapai 35.6%
di FY’17F (FY16: 35%, FY15: 33%). Serta laba bersih 2017 kami
estimasikan naik mencapai USD 79 juta (16A: USD 37 juta, 15A: rugi bersih
USD 8 juta).
Rekomendasi Buy. Kami meningkatkan TP dari 850 menjadi 1.050 ( +21%)
seiring dengan peningkatan kontrak hingga 2020 serta asumsi neraca
keuangan DOID yang bertumbuh solid. Kami menggunakan pendekatan
DCF dan merekomendasikan Buy untuk DOID, merefleksikan ‘17E valuasi di
4.8x EV/EBITDA dan 8.4x PE. Adupun resiko investasi terletak pada 1)
berkurangnya kontrak akibat melemahnya harga batubara ke bawah $60/ton,
2) biaya produksi yang lebih mahal dari estimasi.
Target Price
Rp 1,050
Last Price
Rp 785
Potential Upside
34%
JCI Index
5,427
Share isued (bn)
8.33
Market Cap. (Rp tn)
6.29
52-Weeks High/Low
810/95
Avg Daily Vol (mn)
85.37
Free Float
60.6%
Nominal Value
Rp 50
Book value/share ‘17
Rp312
Relative to JCI Chart
Company Background
Shareholder Structure
Northstar Tambang Persada Ltd
39.3%
Others
0.1%
Public
60.6%
BUY (Maintain)
PT Delta Dunia Makmur (DOID) merupakan
perusahaan induk dengan fokus investasi di jasa
pertambangan. Serta, anak usahnya PT Bukit
Makmur Mandiri (BUMA) yang merupakan salah satu
kontraktor pertambangan terbesar di Indonesia
60
160
260
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
JCI
DOID
Forecast and Valuation (at closing price Rp785 per share)
Y/E Dec (USD mn)
15A
16A
17E
18E
Sales
566
611
732
831
EBITDA
187
216
260
302
Net Profit
(8)
37
79
101
EPS (US$/sh)
(0.001)
0.004
0.009
0.012
BV per share (US$/Sh)
0.010
0.015
0.024
0.037
EV/EBITDA (x)
3.2
4.6
3.6
2.9
P/E Ratio (x)
(4.0)
12.9
6.3
4.9
P/BV Ratio (x)
0.4
3.8
2.4
1.6
va
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR
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| DOID.JK
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Page 2 of 5
Figure 1. Financial performance FY’16
Source: Company,SSI Research
Figure 2. Figure Changes
Source: Company,SSI Research
q-q y-y FY16/ FY16/ (In Mil USD) 3Q16 4Q16 (%) 2015 2016 (%) 2016F 2016 Cons
Revenue 159 193 21.4% 565 611 8.1% C OGS (111) (128) 15.3% (439) (447) 1.8% Gross Profit 48 65 35.4% 126 164 30.2% Operating expenses (22) (72) 219.6% (38) (42) 8.6% Operating profit 26 (7) -125.8% 88 122 39.6% Interest income (14) 0.2 -101.4% 2 1 -54.8% Interest expense 14 19 32.5% (46) (53) 16.2%
Net interest inc/ (exp) 1 19 2653.6% (44) (52) 19.9%
Other income (exp) 70 (3) -104.2% (49) (9) -81.6%
Pre-tax profit 96 22 -76.9% (5) 61 NA Taxation (8) (10) 32.5% (3) (24) NA Net income 89 12 -86.5% (8) 37 NA 108% 108% Operating Margin 16.1% -3.4% 15.5% 20.0% Pre-tax Margin 60.6% 11.5% -0.9% 10.0% Net Margin 55.7% 6.2% -1.3% 6.1%
(USD mn)
Old
New
%
Old
New
%
Revenue
711
732
3%
760
831
9%
Gross Profit
192
201
5%
211
237
12%
EBIT
146
164
13%
162
200
23%
Net Profit
67
79
18%
81
101
25%
Gross Margin (%)
26.0
27.5
6%
27.8
28.6
3%
EBIT Margin (%)
20.5
22.5
10%
21.3
24.1
13%
Net Margin (%)
9.4
10.8
15%
10.7
12.1
13%
Key Assumptions:
Coal Production (mn ton)
38
46
20%
42
48
14%
Overburden volume (mn
355
361
2%
372
408
10%
Blended tariff (USD/BCM)
1.73
1.73
0%
1.75
1.75
0%
Blended Cash cost (USD/BCM)
1.05
1.05
0%
1.06
1.06
0%
DELTA DUNIA MAKMUR
DOID.IJ
| DOID.JK
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Page 3 of 5
Figure 3. OB and coal removal mn tons and average rate USD/ton 2012 - 2018E
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 4.
Revenue USD mn and EBITDA margin 2012 – 2017E
Source: Company, SSI Research
Figure 5. Debt/EBITDA, Interest Coverage, and Net Gearing ratios 2012 - 2017E
Source: Company, SSI Research
$1.60
$1.65
$1.70
$1.75
$1.80
$1.85
$1.90
$1.95
$2.00
200
240
280
320
360
400
440
480
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016A
2017E
2018E
OB and coal removal mn tons (LHS)
Average rate USD/ton (RHS)
20.0%
24.0%
28.0%
32.0%
36.0%
40.0%
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800
$900
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016A
2017E
2018E
Revenue USD mn
EBITDA USD mn
EBITDA margin (RHS)
0%
200%
400%
600%
800%
1000%
1200%
0.0
1.0
2.0
3.0
4.0
5.0
6.0
2012
2013
2014
2015
2016E
2017E
2018E
va
DELTA DUNIA
DOID.IJ
| DOID.JK
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Page 4 of 5
Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Revenue 566 611 732 831 Net Income (8) 37 79 101
COGS 440 447 531 594 Depreciation & amort. 71 41 93 100 Gross profit 126 164 201 237 Others (26) 17 (20) 0 Gross margin (%) 22.2 26.8 27.5 28.6 Working capital 9 48 (27) (10)
Operating profit 87 122 164 200 Operating Cash Flow 45 134 125 191
Operating margin (%) 15.5 20.0 22.5 24.1 Net - Capital expenditure (23) (34) (150) (150)
EBITDA 187 216 260 302 Investing Cash Flow 11 (66) (89) (115)
EBITDA margin (%) 33.0 35.3 35.6 36.4 Net Change In Debt (66) (67) (102) (75) Other Income (Expenses) (93) (42) (43) (45) Others financing 5 10 (0) 3 Pre-tax profit (6) 61 121 155 Financing Cash Flow (61) (61) (52) (72)
Income tax - net (3) (24) (42) (54) Net Cash Flow (4) (4) (15) 4
Net profit (8) 37 79 101 Cash Beginning 75 71 67 52
Net profit margin (%) (1.5) 6.1 10.8 12.1 Cash Ending 71 67 52 55
Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E Yr-end Dec (USD mn) 15A 16A 17E 18E
Cash & ST Investment 71 67 52 55 ROE -9.8% 29.3% 38.9% 33.2%
Receivables 139 146 146 165 ROA -1.0% 4.2% 9.4% 11.5%
Inventories 20 18 20 20 Revenue Growth (%) (6.9) 8.0 19.8 13.5 Others 37 49 43 43 EBITDA Growth (%) 0.4 15.7 20.6 16.1
Total Current Assets 308 299 291 313 EPS Growth (%) (150.5) n.a 112.4 27.9
Net fixed assets 379 406 429 479 Interest coverage (x) 1.9 2.8 3.8 4.5
Other assets 145 177 116 80 Debt to EBITDA (x) 3.6 2.8 1.9 1.4
Total Assets 832 882 836 873 Net Gearing (%) 698.8 427.2 223.5 123.3
Payables 52 107 74 83
ST. debt and curr. maturity 50 106 69 47 Major Assumptions
Other current liabilities 26 33 19 19 Yr-end Dec 15A 16A 17E 18E
LT. debt 614 501 436 382 Rupiah avg. (USD/IDR) 13,400 13,600 13,200 12,800 Other long term liabilities 30 35 38 41 Newcastle price US$/ton 59 60 65 65
Total Liabilities 747 756 617 553 Overburden (MnTons) 273 300 361 408
Total Equity 85 126 203 304 Coal getting (MnTons) 33 35 46 48
Profit and Loss Statement Cash Flow
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DISCLAIMERS : Analyst Certification : The views expressed in this research accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the compensation of the analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the inclusion of specific recommendations or views in this research. The analyst(s) principally responsible for the preparation of this research has taken reasonable care to achieve and maintain independence and objectivity in making any recommendations. This document is for information only and for the use of the recipient. It is not to be reproduced or copied or made available to others. Under no circumstances is it to be considered as an offer to sell or solicitation to buy any security. Any recommendation contained in this report may not be suitable for all investors. Moreover, although the information contained herein has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable, its accuracy, completeness and reliability cannot be guaranteed. All rights reserved by PT Samuel Sekuritas IndonesiaResearch Team
Andy Ferdinand, CFA Head Of Equity Research, Strategy,
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Muhamad Makky Dandytra, CFTe Technical Analyst [email protected] +6221 2854 8382
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Healthcare, Heavy Equipment, Property [email protected] +6221 2854 8144
Arandi Ariantara Cement, Telecommunication, Utility [email protected] +6221 2854 8392
Marlene Tanumihardja Poultry, Retail, Small Caps [email protected] +6221 2854 8387
Sharlita Lutfiah Malik Mining, Plantation [email protected] +6221 2854 8339
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Private Wealth Management
Evelyn Satyono Head of PWM / Institutional Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8380
Muhamad Alfatih CSA, CTA, CFTe Senior Technical Portfolio Advisor [email protected] +6221 2854 8129
Ronny Ardianto Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8399
Clarice Wijana Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8395
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Equity Sales Team
Kelvin Long Head of Equities [email protected] +6221 2854 8150
Yulianah Institutional Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8146
Lucia Irawati Retail Equity Sales [email protected] +6221 2854 8173
Online Trading Sales Team
Nugroho Nuswantoro Head of Marketing Online Trading [email protected] +6221 2854 8372
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