Part II A General Heuristic Decision-Making Procedure
6.4 Basis of the Procedure
After providing an overview of the proposed general heuristic decision-making process in Sects.6.2and6.3, the chapter ends by showing the basis of it.
As can be seen in Fig.6.6, the general heuristic decision-making procedure is based partly on contributions from the literature and partly on the experience of the authors.
The following categories of contributions come from the literature:
• The decision maxims proposed in literature constitute an important basis of the procedure. They are used in Step 7 for the overall assessment of the solution options and are explained in detail in Chap.9.
General heuristic decision-making procedure Experience as
consultants in complex decision situations
Decision maxims
Heuristic principles
Experience in the teaching of decision methodology
Existing general heuristic decision-making procedures from other authors Experience in the
development of specific heuristic decision-making procedures
= Result
= Basis
Fig. 6.6 Basis of the general heuristic decision-making procedure
• With heuristic principles, the literature on heuristics provides important rules that must be considered when designing a heuristic decision-making procedure.
Inset 6.1 presents the heuristic principles central to the decision-making proce- dure and shows how they have been considered in the procedure.
• As noted in Sect.6.2, suggestions for general heuristic procedures exist in liter- ature. Comparing our ideas with the suggestions in the literature can help to identify weaknesses and improve our procedure.
The experiences of the authors were also used:
• While working both individually and collectively, the authors designed a num- ber of specific heuristic decision-making procedures. In doing so, the authors accumulated methodological knowledge. This knowledge was incorporated in the design of the proposed general heuristic decision-making procedure.
• The teaching of general decision methodology also produced valuable findings.
The methodological recommendations could be tested and improved.
• Most valuable of all has undoubtedly been the experience as consultants to organizations facing important and complex decision situations. Here too, methods were applied and tested. What seems even more important is the knowledge gained on the situation and feelings of top executives facing difficult decisions. They not only have to solve an intellectual problem. At the same time, they are usually under enormous pressure to succeed. In addition, important decisions must often be made under time pressure. These aspects have also been taken into account in the design of the general decision-making procedure.
Inset 6.1: Heuristic Principles and Their Use
Heuristic principals are rules of thumb applied by problem solvers to render complex problems solvable. The process proposed in this book primarily uses five heuristic principles. They are briefly described in the following text.
The text also shows how they are applied in the process.
In order to solve a complex decision problem, the heuristic rule of factori- zation (see March and Simon1958, p. 193) recommends breaking it down into sub-problems to be tackled either in sequence or in parallel. By dividing the problem in steps which are completed one after the other or in parallel, this principle is applied extensively.
The principle of modeling (see Klix1971, p. 724) requires that the sub- problems are defined in such a way that proven methods for their solution can be used. This principle notably underlines Step 7: There are numerous deci- sion maxims that can help to produce an overall evaluation of the options.
Another heuristic principle that is important for the recommended process is sub-goal reduction (see Newell et al.1965, p. 259). To evaluate alternative solutions, it suggests replacing general objectives, which are difficult to
(continued)
6.4 Basis of the Procedure 59
Inset 6.1(continued)
apply, by criteria that are concrete and easier to apply by the decision maker.
The principle is the basis of Step 3.
The heuristic principle of generate-and-test (see Herroelen1972, p. 227) recommends developing (generate) and assessing (test) only one solution, which appears to be reasonable, instead of developing and assessing several alternative solutions. If it meets the minimum objectives, it is accepted as the solution to the problem. However, if the assessment leads to an unsatisfactory result, the search for a solution continues. The heuristic principle of generate- and-test is used in the proposed process in the heuristic loop from Step 7 to Step 3: If the overall evaluation of the options yields an unsatisfactory result for all evaluated options, further options should be sought and assessed.
The principle of bounded rationality (see Simon 1966, p. 19) waives the search for optimal solutions and looks for satisfactory solutions instead.
The principle is applied in all of the steps of the process.
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