Because the ght is brutal they have to be brutal enough to do whatever is necessary to win.
The time that historians stamp as the civil war period typically lasts a few years and determines the o cial winners and losers, which is conveyed by who gets to occupy the government buildings in the capital. But like the beginnings, the ends of civil wars/revolutions are not as clearly de ned as historians convey. The ghting to consolidate power can go on for a long time after the o cial civil war has ended.
While civil wars and revolutions are typically extremely painful, they often lead to restructurings that, if done well, can establish the foundation for improved future results. What the future after the civil war/revolution looks like depends on how the next steps are handled.
much less painful than ghting civil wars over wealth and power that lead to one side subjugating the other side.
1 To get a rich picture of what makes great leaders great in di erent types of circumstances, I recommend Henry Kissinger’s forthcoming book on leadership.
2 This chart is based on historical analysis of nine great powers (covering about 2,200 years of history in total). The likelihood of con ict is based on major cases of civil war, rebellion, and revolution but excludes peaceful revolutions that did not change the existing system. The analysis does not count the probability of con ict arising in a period when a country is already in the midst of internal con ict (and the ve years following) to avoid counting periods in which economic conditions were bad because of the con ict itself.
3 To be clear, when a government’s nances are in bad shape that does not necessarily mean it will run out of buying power. But it does mean that there is a much higher risk of that happening than if the government were in a nancially strong position.
4 Of course, these two kinds of struggles aren’t equivalent. Still, in both cases, I have found that people are focused on their own issues and communities and don’t understand the circumstances of those they don’t have direct contact with. In many communities, people—and most heartbreakingly the children—are desperately poor and neglected. There is an acute shortage of money for basics, such as adequate school supplies, nutrition, and healthcare, and an environment of violence and trauma that perpetuates a cycle in which children are brought up intellectually and physically malnourished and traumatized; this leaves them disadvantaged as they grow into adulthood, which makes it hard for them to earn a living, which perpetuates the cycle. Consider this fact: a recent study that our foundation funded showed that 22 percent of the high school students in Connecticut—the richest state in the country by income per capita—are either
“disengaged” or “disconnected.” A disengaged student is one who has an absentee rate of greater than 25 percent and is failing classes. A disconnected student is one who the system can’t track because they dropped out. Imagine the consequences in 10 years and the human and social costs of this cycle. Our society has not established limits to how terrible it will allow conditions to get.
5 Viscount Northcli e, who controlled just under half of daily newspaper circulation in the UK around World War I, was known for anti-German coverage and was made “Director of Propaganda in Enemy Countries” by the government in 1918.
6 What can be done? The news media is unique in being the only industry that operates without quality controls or checks on its power. I and most others believe that it would be terrible for our government to regulate it and, at the same time, believe that something has to be done to x the problem. Perhaps if people protest enough the media could be motivated to create a self-regulatory organization to create and regulate ratings the way the Motion Picture Association did. I don’t have a clue about what should be done because this problem isn’t in my areas of expertise, and it’s not my place to o er suggestions to try to x the problem;
however, it is my responsibility to point out that we are in an era in which sensationalism, commercialism, and political desires to manipulate people’s views have superseded accuracy and journalistic integrity as the primary objectives of most of those in the media and that this is like a cancer that threatens our well-being. If you believe that fake and distorted media is a problem and you are interested in watching the
media/propaganda for clues about whether and how this is transpiring, here are a few commonly recommended things to look out for. Ask yourself:
1) Does the story consist of emotionally triggering, unsubstantiated accusations, or are the facts substantiated and the sources provided? When the facts are put aside to create an exciting story and the sources are undisclosed, don’t believe the story.
2) Does the writer welcome or not welcome replies or arguments that refute what they are asserting, and are they willing or not willing to publish them along with what they published?
3) Are the accusations in the story consistent with what has been identi ed and proven in the legal system? If people or groups are accused in the media of doing bad things but they haven’t been accused and judged to have done bad things in the legal system (which follows a process that tries to weigh the evidence to get at what is true), at least ask yourself why that is and probably don’t believe the story.
4) If the writer or outlet has previously shown themselves to be biased, assume that they and their stories are biased.
7 The Roman Republic and Athens both had democratic elements, but not everyone was able to participate or vote equally. Although democracies have existed for thousands of years, it is only recently that most people were allowed to vote. For example, in the US, African-American men were not universally allowed to vote until 1870, and women of all races until 1920.