The termstatistics is derived from status, the Latin term for state. Thus, the science and practice of statistics, as we think of it today, was first associated with data relating to the state (e.g., government), such as census counts and health records. Given the importance of statistics as a part of state governance, there are more than a few accounts of census-taking and health records from the earliest days of recorded history.
Going beyond mere record-keeping, an interest in the mathematics of chance (e.g., probability) began to develop in the 1500s and 1600s, especially among
2It is certainly possible to interactively type all R-based syntax at the R prompt, but this approach is generally discouraged. Instead, it is far more efficient to use a separate text editor to prepare R syntax and to then determine the best way to put syntax into the active R session. A simple search of the Internet will provide a comprehensive list of recommended text editors (GNU Emacs and vim are commonly used text editors in the R community.) and many are available as free downloads. Experiment with the many possibilities on how to prepare R syntax using software and a programming environment that best meets personal needs, local computing infrastructure, and selected operating system.
those who engaged in European Renaissance court life. The early interest in probability may not have been altruistic but was instead focused on gaining advantage in card games and other forms of gambling. The use of probability to solve problems for societal gain may not have been the first interest but instead attention was focused on the question,Given that there are X cards in the deck, if I discard the Y card from my hand, what is the chance that I will draw the Z card from the deck and improve my chance of winning this game of cards?3
This early interest in probability, and eventually the evolving science of statistics as a vehicle for social improvement, eventually grew into what we think of as biostatistics. It is far beyond the purpose of this introductory text on the use of R in biostatistics to go into too much detail about the evolution of statistics as a science, but at a minimum it would be helpful to look into the biography and contributions of the following founders of what we now consider biostatistics and closely related sciences:
• Gerolamo Cardano (1501–1576) was an early writer on probability.
Although well-regarded in his time as a polymath, he was also fond of gambling and publishedLiber de Ludo Aleae, translated asBook on Games of Chance, which some regard as a manual on gambling.4
• Blaise Pascal (1623–1662) prepared writings on probability and devel- oped the Pascaline, an early business-oriented (e.g., tax records) mechan- ical calculator. The structured programming language Pascal was named in honor of Blaise Pascal.
• John Graunt (1620–1674) published Natural and Political Observations Made Upon the Bills of Mortality, perhaps the first widely-read text on demographics, public health, and epidemiology. Graunt, as one of the first demographers, established protocols in the 1600s that modeled standards now used in epidemiology, all based on available public health data.
3Basset (also called barbacole and hocca), faro, and lansquenet are examples of card games associated with Renaissance European court life that helped give rise to studies on probability.
Separate from those caught up in the frenzy of gambling, some individuals instead determined the sequence of patterns in these card games and from this observation developed ideas about the probability of which cards would show in future hands—at least in a fair and honest game. These ideas on probability where then extended to other situations and eventually to observations about biological phenomena, such as crop yields, livestock production, medicine, etc.
4Look at the dates (mid-1500s to early-1800s) when considering the nature of the term publication and how scientific information was disseminated during this time period. Our modern view of scientific journals, monographs, textbooks, Internet-based blogs and discus- sion groups, etc., simply does not compare to how scientific communication occurred in the 1500s, 1600s, 1700s, and early-1800s. Journals were only in an early developmental stage dur- ing the later parts of this time period and instead, publications were often personal letters or lectures shared among a few select individuals, either close associates with common interests or small groups of individuals organized as some type of fraternal society.
• John Snow (1813–1858) advocated for the development of epidemiology in relation to public health. He provided on the ground empirically-based leadership to combat the 1854 Broad Street (London) Cholera Outbreak.
Because of his work, there were major improvements to the water and waste systems of Victorian London and by this successful example other large cities throughout the world saw improvements to public sanitation as the Industrial Revolution concentrated more and more people into emerg- ing cities.
• Florence Nightingale (1820–1910) is likely best known as an advocate for our modern view of nursing. However, her presentation in Diagram of the Causes of Mortality in the Army in the East was a breakthrough publication that had strong implications for how biostatistics could be used to improve public health.
• William Gosset(1876–1937) wroteThe Probable Error of a Mean (e.g., Student’s t-Test), one of the most frequently used inferential tests for parametric data.
• Alice Lee (1858–1939) was one of the first women to receive a Doctor of Science degree from London University (1901). She worked for years at Karl Pearson’s Biometric Laboratory, and the statistical tables she developed were used long after they were first developed.
• Ronald Fisher (1890–1962), through extensive work in agricultural re- search and resulting publications such as Statistical Methods for Research Workers, is regarded as a pioneer in the use of data, associated research methods, and statistical tests in biostatistics.
• Rear Admiral Grace Hopper (1906–1992) was a pioneer using pro- gramming languages as a tool for analytics, leading to development of COBOL. Her early leadership on the use of computers and associated high-level programming languages led to the eventual development by others of languages such as S and R.
• Evelyn Berezin (1925–2018) pioneered the first computer-based word processor as well as an early airline reservation system that bridged change from vacuum tubes to transistors.
Although Fisher may be the immediate answer if anyone were asked to identify a famous biostatistician, Snow should also be noted. To put the many individ- uals who contributed to our current view of biostatistics into context, consider Snow’s work during the mid-1850s London cholera (e.g., Vibrio cholerae) out- break and his, then, innovative use of mapping techniques based on data gained through exhaustive empirical methods. Far from being an academic who dealt only in theory, Snow put his own life at risk to obtain the data needed to validate that cholera was a waterborne pathogen. Using these data, he used persuasive
argumentation with government officials, based on scientific outcomes, to con- front the problem and take appropriate actions.