The estimates in this 10th edition of the IDF Diabetes Atlas are provided for 215 countries and territories, grouped into the seven IDF Regions: Africa (AFR), Europe (EUR), Middle East and North Africa (MENA), North America and Caribbean (NAC), South and Central America (SACA), South-East Asia (SEA) and the Western Pacific (WP). In total, 219 data sources from 144 countries were included in the analysis.1
Our projections show a growth of 16% in the expected prevalence of diabetes due to ageing of the population.
The greatest percentage increase from 2021 to 2045 in comparative prevalence is estimated to occur in middle-income countries due to their ageing populations.
On the other hand, it is estimated that 94% of the increase in the number of people with diabetes by 2045 will occur in low and middle-income countries, where population growth is expected to be greater (Table 3.2).
At a glance 2021 2045
World Bank income
classification Number of people with diabetes (millions)
Diabetes prevalencei (%)
Comparative diabetes prevalenceii (%)
Number of people with diabetes (millions)
Diabetes prevalencei (%)
Comparative diabetes prevalenceii (%)
World 536.6 10.5% 9.8 783.2 12.2% 11.2
High-income countries 103.9 11.1% 8.4 117.7 12.4% 10.3
Middle-income countries 414.0 10.8% 10.5 623.3 13.1% 12.0
Low-income countries 18.7 5.5% 6.7 42.2 6.1% 7.0
Number of deaths due
to diabetes 6.7 million – –
Table 3.2 Number of adults (20–79 years) with diabetes per World Bank income classification in 2021 and 2045
i Prevalence is standardised to each national population for the respective year ii Prevalence is standardised to world population for the respective year
1
>12%
Estimated age-adjusted comparative prevalence of diabetes in adults (20–79 years) in 2021 Full colour range for legend Full colour range
9-<12%
7-<9%
5-<7%
4-<5%
<4%
No estimates made
>0%
>0%
>0%
>0%
>0%
>0%
<0%
<0%
<4%
4–<5%
5–<7%
7–<9%
9–<12%
>12%
no estimates made
3
Map 3.2 Estimated age-adjusted comparative prevalence of diabetes in adults (20–79 years) in 2021
Age distribution
Diabetes estimates for 2021 show increasing prevalence of diabetes by age. Similar trends are predicted for 2045. Prevalence is lowest among adults aged 20–24 years (2.2% in 2021) (Figure 3.1). Among adults aged 75–79 years diabetes prevalence is estimated to be 24.0% in 2021 and predicted to rise to 24.7% in 2045.
The aging of the world's population will produce an increasing proportion of those with diabetes being over the age of 60 years.
Figure 3.1 Gender distribution
The estimated prevalence of diabetes in women aged 20–79 years is slightly lower than in men (10.2% vs 10.8%). In 2021, there are 17.7 million more men than women living with diabetes. (Figure 3.2).
13
Urban and rural distribution
In 2021, more people with diabetes live in urban (360.0 million) than in rural (176.6 million) areas – the prevalence in urban areas being 12.1% and in rural areas 8.3%. The number of people with diabetes living in urban areas is expected to increase to 596.5 million in 2045 (Figure 3.3), as a result of global urbanisation.
By 2045, the predicted prevalence of diabetes in urban areas is estimated to increase to 13.9%, due to population ageing.
Regional distribution
As explained in Chapter 2, age is a major determinant of diabetes risk. Thus, comparative prevalence estimates and projections have been used to allow comparisons at IDF regional and country levels. The MENA Region has the highest comparative prevalence of diabetes (18.1%) in people aged 20–79 years in 2021. This estimate is expected to increase, with the MENA Region continuing to have the highest comparative prevalence in 2045 (20.4%).
The AFR Region currently has the lowest comparative prevalence (5.3%), which can be partially attributed to low levels of urbanisation and low prevalence of overweight and obesity. Its prevalence is estimated to rise from 4.5% in 2021 to 5.2% in 2045, an increase of smaller magnitude than in other IDF regions (Table 3.3).
This is likely to be an underestimate given the rapid urbanisation and expected changes in lifestyles and ecosystems in this region.
Figure 3.2 Prevalencei of diabetes among men and women (20–79 years), 2021
i Prevalence is standardised to each national population
Prevalence (%)
Figure 3.2
20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79
0 5 20 30
10 15 25
Men Women
Age (years)
Figure 3.3 Number of people with diabetes in adults (20–79 years) living in urban and rural areas in 2021 and 2045
0 100 200 300 400 500 600
Millions
2021 2045
Rural Urban
Figure 3.3 700
Country distribution
The countries with the largest numbers of adults with diabetes aged 20–79 years in 2021 are China, India and Pakistan. They are anticipated to remain so in 2045 (Table 3.4). The countries that have the highest number of people with diabetes do not necessarily have the highest prevalence.
The highest comparative diabetes prevalence rates in 2021 are reported in Pakistan (30.8%), French Polynesia (25.2%) and Kuwait (24.9%) (Table 3.5). These countries are also expected to have the highest overall comparative diabetes prevalence in 2045, with figures in Pakistan reaching 33.6%, Kuwait 29.8% and French Polynesia 28.2%.
13
2021 2045
Rank IDF Region Number of people with diabetes (millions)
Diabetes prevalencei (%)
Comparative diabetes prevalenceii (%)
Number of people with diabetes (millions)
Diabetes prevalencei (%)
Comparative diabetes prevalenceii (%)
World 536.6 10.5 9.8 783.2 12.2 11.2
1 MENA 72.7 16.2 18.1 135.7 19.3 20.4
2 NAC 50.5 14.0 11.9 62.8 15.2 14.2
3 SEA 90.2 8.7 10.0 151.5 11.3 11.3
4 WP 205.6 11.9 9.9 260.2 14.4 11.5
5 SACA 32.5 9.5 8.2 48.9 11.9 9.8
6 EUR 61.4 9.2 7.0 69.2 10.4 8.7
7 AFR 23.6 4.5 5.3 54.9 5.2 5.6
Table 3.3 Prevalence of diabetes in adults (20–79 years) in IDF Regions in 2021 and 2045, ranked by 2021 age-adjusted comparative diabetes prevalence
IDF: International Diabetes Federation; AFR: Africa; EUR: Europe; MENA: Middle East and North Africa; NAC: North America and Caribbean; SACA:
South and Central America; SEA: South-East Asia; WP: Western Pacific i Prevalence is standardised to each national population for the respective year ii Prevalence is standardised to world population for the respective year
2021 2045
Rank Country or territory Number of people with diabetes (millions)
Rank Country or territory Number of people with diabetes (millions)
1 China 140.9 1 China 174.4
2 India 74.2 2 India 124.9
3 Pakistan 33.0 3 Pakistan 62.2
4 United States of
America 32.2 4 United States of
America 36.3
Table 3.4 Top 10 countries or territories for number of adults (20–79 years) with diabetes in 2021 and 2045