AMBITION
IV. MITIGATION PATHWAYS
4.2. Low Carbon and Climate Resilience Scenario
4.2.3. Waste Sector
4.2.3.2. GHG Emission Projection and Mitigation Strategy
Figure 23. TOW of each type of industry and its projections
Under LCCP, the GHG emissions will decrease 2.5% per year from 198 Mton CO2e in 2030 to 120 Mton CO2e in 2050 with the rate of 2.5% per year. If it is compared to the GHG emissions level in 2010, under LCCP the GHG emissions level will be 1.35 times with those in 20107. Under LCCP, all potential mitigation under CPOS and TRNS are maximized by adding several ambitious mitigations, particularly in the MSW and industrial waste treatments.
The GHG emissions intensities under three scenarios are presented in Figure 25. The Figure shows that under LCCP, the GHG emissions intensity is 391 Kg CO2e per capita in 2010 and is projected to reach the level of 359 Kg CO2e per capita in 2050. The GHG emission intensity in 2050 is reduced about 0.9 times the GHG emissions intensity in 2010 or 0.59 times if it is compared to the GHG emissions intensity in 2030.
Figure 24. GHG emissions projection under CPOS, TRNS and LCCP
7 The estimation of GHG emissions of the waste sector under CPOS, TRNS and LCCP
Figure 25. GHG emissions and intensity under CPOS, TRNS and LCCP
a. Municipal Solid Waste (MSW)
The level of GHG emissions from MSW treatments in 2050 is expected to be reduced significantly to achieve 32.2 Mton CO2e under LCCP, while under CPOS and TRNS the GHG emission level is accounted to 65.3 Mton CO2e and 52.1 Mton CO2e respectively. The GHG emissions projection under LCCP is estimated to be lower than those in CPOS and TRNS by implementing mitigation actions through a large share of MSW utilization for energy generation (PLTSa/RDF), which is effectively to reduce the GHG emissions. Figure 26 shows the GHG emissions level and its intensity, that the GHG emissions in 2050 is lower (0.93 times) than those in 2010. Figure 26 also shows the GHG emissions intensities of the three scenarios, in which under LCCP the GHG emissions intensity is reduced 0.66 times from 146 Kg CO2e per capita to become 96 Kg CO2e per capita.
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Figure 26. The projection of GHG emissions level under CPOS, TRNS and LCCP
b. Domestic Wastewater Treatment
Government programs to increase the number of septic-tank from 71% in 2020 to 85% in 2050 for people live in rural and from 88% in 2020 to 99% in 2050 for people live in urban are implemented in order to increase the access of people to the toilet (individual and communal) could be implemented as mitigation measures by introducing technologies that reduces or lower the GHG emissions.
Under CPOS, mitigation under unconditional NDC are extended until 2050, which include additional septic tank with biogas recovery and sludge removal and implementation of aerobic system. The GHG emission projection under CPOS is estimated to achieve 34.1 Mton CO2e.
Under TRNS and LCCP, more ambitious mitigation mitigation can be deployed to decrease the level of GHG emissions through the additional aerobic septic tank, biodigester septic tank equipped with methane recovery for new toilet/
septic-tank, and centralised WWT for domestic wastewater. Under TRNS, it is assumed that the use of aerobic centralised will increase from 1% of people live in urban in 2020 to 14% in 2050 while under LCCP it will increase to 36%
in 2050. The GHG emissions projection of these mitigation actions (see Figure 27) has considered the increasing number of people live in urban area toward
Figure 27 shows that GHG emissions level of LCCP can be achieved by a large share of centralised treatment (IPAL) and reducing the non-septic tank. The Figure also shows that under LCCP, the GHG emissions level in 2050 (25.67 Mton CO2e) is still higher than the GHG emissions level in 2010 (18.07 Mton CO2e).
Figure 27. The projection of GHG emissions level and intensity of Domestic WWT
c. Industrial Waste Treatment
Under CPOS, GHG emissions can be reduced through the majority of mitigation in several significant GHG emissions contributor industries, i.e. palm oil mills, pulp paper, vegetable-fruit-juice, organic chemicals, and vegetable oil industries. Under TRNS and LCCP, most of wastewater from significant emissions contributor industries will be treated for energy and material sources, such as the use of anaerobic digester equipped with methane gas recovery and utilizing the sludge from WWT unit for energy, compost and materials sources.
The GHG emissions level of the three scenarios is presented in Figure 28.
Under LCCP, all of the above mitigation actions are expected to increase significantly. Beyond 2030, mitigation under LCCP are expected to reduce GHG emissions to 62 Mton CO2e in 2050. Compared to the GHG emissions level in 2010 (27 Mton CO2e), the GHG emissions target under LCCP in 2050 is 2.3 times to the level in 2010 due to the increasing production capacity of these
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industries. In 2050, GHG emission level under CPOS and TRNS are estimated to reach 172 Mton CO2e and 139 Mton CO2e respectively.
Figure 28 shows that GHG emissions under LCCP is lower than CPOS and TRNS due to large share of mitigation in waste treatment of CPO. The GHG emissions intensity of those three scenarios are 514 Kg CO2e per capita (CPOS), 416 Kg CO2e per capita (TRNS), and 186 Kg CO2e per capita (LCCP).
Figure 28. The projection of GHG emissions level and intensity in industrial waste