Marxan is a decision support tool, designed to help guide the selection of efficient reserve systems; its output should never be interpreted as “The Answer”. Whilst each set of Marxan runs will produce a mathematically “best” solution, there is no single best solution to most of the conservation planning problems that Marxan is used to address, and likely many good solutions contingent upon factors not necessarily in the analysis (e.g., human use preferences, etc.) (see Chapter 1: Introduction).
Working with Marxan is as much an art as a science, particularly as many of the input parameters are best determined through trial and error (see Chapter 8: Ensuring Robust Analysis). Understanding its performance requires practitioners to have an in-depth understanding of both the nature of the spatial data used to depict the conservation features, and of how Marxan works. The key point in assessing Marxan solutions is to determine if it has succeeded in meeting the problem’s ecological targets, objectives and goals (see Chapter 4: Addressing Ecological Objectives through the Setting of Targets).
It is recommended that practitioners conduct two levels of review: Internal and External.
Each will have a different focus and both should include reviewing tabular and spatial outputs. The internal review should be conducted by those responsible for the Marxan analysis prior to taking the results to external review. This review should focus on Marxan performance and ensuring Marxan is running correctly, producing efficient, repeatable results. The external review should focus on the solutions themselves,
9.2.1 Internal review
The internal review should focus on determining how Marxan is performing, and how it responds to different suites of input parameters and datasets. As a Marxan analysis is best conducted iteratively, there will be many internal reviews prior to taking the outputs to an external audience. The exact nature of the issues considered in the internal review will vary amongst different processes. Three important aspects that have been discussed in this handbook, mostly in Chapter 4 -Addressing Ecological Objectives through the Setting of Targets, Chapter 5 -Reserve Design Considerations, and Chapter 8 -Ensuring Robust Analysis, are:
• achievement of targets: how well the project’s objectives have been met through the achievement of targets;
• efficiency: consideration of how well solutions that meet targets do so for minimal cost / area, as well as how the clumping of sites suits the planning purposes;
• sensitivity analyses: measuring how much influence each parameter has on the solutions, and also evaluating the potential effects of poor parameter estimates or weak assumptions (Caswell 1989).
Some other points to consider in the internal review, such that it is ready for external review, include:
• The degree of technical involvement of the project supervisor / project sponsor / project team members in the process, their technical knowledge, and how to best communicate the results to them.
• How the targets and objectives were formulated and that these are defensible and are supported by the project team.
• That the outcomes of the analysis are understandable and “make sense.” If there are unexpected results, these should be discussed.
• That the messages are clear. Carefully consider which outputs to show both internally and externally. This will depend on the process and objectives of the project: you may show a single result, or the full range of outcomes for a number of different scenarios. Be aware that information overload can paralyse decision- making, but that not showing enough information can trap the discussion in false trade-offs.
• Take note of the strengths and weaknesses of your analysis and results, as well as the assumptions inherent in your analysis.
• Anticipate potential conflicts, and highlight them (e.g., overlaps between areas selected for reserves, and socio-economic uses of those areas). Consider also the possibility of economic impacts beyond the scope of the analysis, e.g., might the chosen plan affect land values?
• Be aware of and note how much the plan changes the status quo.
It is important to have on hand a detailed technical document that explains what data went into the analysis, and what targets, constraints and parameters were set, so as to allow for a full explanation of details, sufficient to replicate it if necessary.
Before moving to a formal external review, it can be helpful to practise presenting results to friendly experts and locals. They can provide invaluable feedback as to whether the results make intuitive sense. If the results do not make sense to friendly reviewers, further examination (either correcting the analysis, or uncovering the legitimate reasons that explain these results) should undertaken before moving to external review, where the comments will undoubtedly be more critical.
9.2.2 External review
Depending on the process and its goals, external review may mean involving experts, decision makers, implementers, and wider stakeholders (see Chapter 6: Addressing Socioeconomic Objectives and Chapter 10: Using Marxan in Multi-Stakeholder Planning Processes).
One of the key purposes of an external review process is as a “reality check”. Is the solution one which could be realistically implemented? How does the average clump size compare with the average size of the protected areas in an existing reserve network?
Is the distribution realistic? Do the results make “sense?” Box 9.1 and Figure 9.3 describe an interpretation of a Marxan analysis that may help facilitate external review.
Experts often have knowledge about particular areas that are not represented in available datasets, and can therefore make valuable contributions to reviewing the quality of Marxan outputs. However, experts may also have their own subjective opinions about sites: If an expert recommends a site which Marxan did not select for inclusion in a reserve network, try to distil whether the recommendation is a result of a personal preference or bias, a data deficiency, or a factor not considered in the Marxan analysis.
Experts often have quantifiable and unquantifiable knowledge (i.e., “gut feelings,”
“hunches,” intuitions) regarding a particular species or taxon, which usually can improve its protection. However, the implications of their recommendations vis-à-vis the preservation of other important taxa should be considered. An “ideal” configuration for the preservation of a wide-ranging animal species might look very different from that for the preservation of a vegetation community, for example.
In the external review, it is important to not just show a single best solution, but also present summed solutions (selection frequency) for each Marxan scenario. A single solution provides no indication of the degree of variability between solutions. In addition to the summed solution, it can be a good idea to show a selection of single good
Marxan. It is also important to spend time explaining how Marxan works, to avoid the perception that it is a “black box” solution generator.
One must be prepared to defend the targets selected, and the trade-offs implemented to achieve the Marxan output (see Chapter 4: Addressing Ecological Objectives through the Setting of Targets). One of the best ways to achieve this is through conducting a robust analysis (see Chapter 8: Ensuring Robust Analysis) and internal review, as well as following the good practice of documenting the datasets and input parameter settings used in each scenario, along with the rationale behind them. Approaches that have been used elsewhere should be referenced. If possible, it is a good idea to have novel aspects of the analysis peer reviewed. This, in combination with peer-review of the results, will greatly increase the likelihood that the analysis is sound and acceptable to those involved in the broader conservation planning process.
Box 9.1
The plot described in Section 9.1.4 -
: Interpreting results and prioritisation
Spatial outputs can be used to spatially prioritise the Marxan Solution, as was done for the Okanagan Ecoregional Assessment (Pryce et al.
2006) (Figure 9.3). For this exercise planning units (hexagons) were grouped together based on the conservation action to be implemented or similar conservation features.
Groups of planning units were then assigned a conservation value and a vulnerability value, based respectively on the mean summed solution and mean cost. Using a scatter plot sites were assigned a place on the matrix shown in Figure 9.3. This was translated to a colour value which can be displayed spatially.
Figure 9.3: Prioritisation of the results of Okanagan Ecoregional Assessment Marxan analysis using measures of conservation value and vulnerability (Pryce et al. 2006).
10 Using Marxan in Multi-Stakeholder Planning Processes
Rosaline Canessa,1* Laura Geselbracht,2 Carissa J. Klein,3 Susan E. Cameron4
1University of Victoria 2The Nature Conservancy 3The University of Queensland, Centre for Applied Environmental Decision Analysis 4Department of Environmental Science and Policy, University of California, Davis
*Correspondence: E-mail: rcanessa office.geog.uvic.ca
ABSTRACT
This chapter presents good practices for successful stakeholder engagement in a reserve network planning process with Marxan. Section 10.2 discusses principles of multi-stakeholder planning process including defining stakeholders, and how and when to involve them. Section 10.3 discusses integration of stakeholders and Marxan. A summary and conclusions are presented in Section 10.4.