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LATTICE METHODS FOR VANILLA OPTIONS .1 Binomial lattice

Dalam dokumen COMPUTATIONAL FINANCE - untag-smd.ac.id (Halaman 152-174)

In this section we will derive equations for a binomial lattice that describes the GBM movement of asset price changes. The approach that we will adopt is based on the work of Cox, Ross, and Rubinstein (1979), and will be referred to as the CRR lattice.

From Section 8.3 Equation 8.15 we know that if the price of an asset,St, follows GBM then the change in value of its price over time intervalt, has the following distribution:

log Stþt St

N r2 2

t; 2t

Table 10.2 The MacMillan, Barone-Adesi, and Whaley method for American option values computed by the routineMBW_approx. The parameters used were: ¼0:5,E¼100:0,r¼0:1, q¼0:06,¼0:2. The

accurate value was calculated using a standard lattice with 2000 time steps, and the error was the MacMillan, Barone-Adesi, and Whaley estimate minus the accurate value

Call Put

Stock price Accurate value Error Accurate value Error

86.0 1.2064 5:54104 14.0987 3:69102

89.0 1.8838 1:95104 11.5120 4:85102

92.0 2.7890 7:03104 9.2478 3:58102

95.0 3.9427 1:16103 7.3031 1:66102

98.0 5.3522 1:15103 5.6674 7:19104

101.0 7.0119 1:10103 4.3209 1:35102

104.0 8.9043 2:21103 3.2362 2:22102

107.0 11.0072 2:63103 2.3823 2:63102

110.0 13.2905 4:20103 1.7235 2:80102

113.0 15.7264 4:77103 1.2272 2:66102

Table 10.3 The MacMillan, Barone-Adesi, and Whaley critical asset values for the early exercise boundary of an American put computed by the routineMBW_approx. The parameters used were:

S¼101:0,E¼101:0,r¼0:1,q¼0:06, and¼0:20

Time to expiry, Critical asset value,S Time to expiry, Critical asset value,S

1.0 82.1510 0.50 85.1701

0.95 82.3751 0.45 85.6199

0.90 82.6115 0.40 86.1176

0.85 82.8618 0.35 86.6740

0.80 83.1273 0.30 87.3049

0.75 83.4098 0.25 88.0333

0.70 83.7115 0.20 88.8959

0.65 84.0349 0.15 89.9568

0.60 84.3830 0.10 91.3469

0.55 84.7598 0.05 93.4260

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If we use the notation:

X¼Stþt

St

; and ¼ ðr2=2Þt 2¼2t the above equation becomes:

logðXÞ Nð; 2Þ or equivalently Xð; 2Þ

where (,2) is the lognormal distribution derived from a Gaussian distribution with mean , and variance2. It is well known, see for example Evanset al. (2000), that the first two moments of a variableXdrawn from a lognormal distribution are

Lognormal mean

E½X ¼expðþ2=2Þ ð10:70Þ

substituting forand2 gives E½X ¼exp r2

2

2 2t

ð10:71Þ

Lognormal variance

Var½X ¼E½ðXE½XÞ2 ¼E½X2 ðE½XÞ2¼expð2þ2Þ expð2Þ 1

ð10:72Þ substituting forand2 gives

Var½X ¼exp 2r r2 2

2t

which can be simplified to yield

Var½X ¼exp 2rtf g expð2tÞ 1

ð10:73Þ Since we can assume that the expected value ofXgrows at the riskless interest rate, r, we can also write:

E½X ¼expðrtÞ ð10:74Þ

The above results can be used to find the first two moments of the asset price distributionStþt, given that we know the asset price,St, at time instantt. T o do this we will use, see Appendix F.3 for a proof, the fact that for a random variableGwe have:

E½aþbG ¼E½a þbE½G and Var½aþbG ¼b2Var½G whereaandbare constants. Applying this to the variableXgives:

E½X ¼E Stþt

St

¼ 1 St

E S½ tþt ð10:75Þ

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and

Var½X ¼Var Stþt St

¼ 1

S2tVar S½ tþt ð10:76Þ

where we have useda¼0 andb¼1/St. Note that it is also easy to show that:

Var½Stþt ¼Var½S ð10:77Þ

where the change in asset price over the time interval t is denoted by S¼StþtSt. This elementary result sometimes is used without proof, see for example Hull (1997) p. 344. The proof is simple:

Var½Stþt ¼Var½StþS ¼Var½S where again we have used

Var½aþbG ¼b2Var½G this time witha¼0 andb¼1.

To find expressions for the mean and variance of Stþt we simply substitute Equation 10.74 into Equation 10.75 and obtain:

E½Stþt ¼StexpðrtÞ ð10:78Þ

and substitute Equation 10.73 into Equation 10.76 to yield:

Var½Stþt ¼St2expð2rtÞ expð2tÞ 1

ð10:79Þ Since we are modelling asset price movements with a binomial lattice, the asset price,St, at any given node is only permitted to eitherjump uporjump downin value over the next time stept. Here we will assume that the new asset price,Stþt, isStu for an up jump andStd for a down jump; whereuandd are constants that apply to all lattice nodes. If we further denote the probability of an up jump by p then the probability of a down jump must (by definition) be 1p.

Now that we have specified the lattice parameters we will use these to match the first two moments of the lognormal distribution. This results in the following equation for the mean:

E½Stþt ¼pStuþ ð1pÞStd¼StexpðrtÞ ð10:80Þ The corresponding equation for the variance requires a little more work:

Var½Stþt ¼E½ðStþtÞ2 ðE½StþtÞ2 ð10:81Þ Since

E½ðStþtÞ2 ¼pðSt2þ ð1pÞðSt2¼S2tpu2þ ð1pÞd2

ð10:82Þ and, from Equation 10.80, we have

ðE½StþtÞ2¼fStexpðrtÞg2¼S2texpð2rtÞ ð10:83Þ Numeric methods and single asset American options 139

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We can substitute Equations 10.82 and 10.83 into Equation 10.81 to obtain Var½Stþt ¼St2expð2rtÞ expð2tÞ 1

¼St2pu2þ ð1pÞd2

S2texpð2rtÞ We therefore have:

expð2rtÞexpð2tÞ 1

¼pu2þ ð1pÞd2expð2rtÞ ð10:84Þ So, restating Equation 10.80 and simplifying Equation 10.84, we obtain the following two equations:

puþ ð1pÞd¼expðrtÞ ð10:85Þ

expð2rtþ2tÞ ¼pu2þ ð1pÞd2 ð10:86Þ

which we will use to solve for the three parametersu,d, andp. Since there are three unknowns and only two equations, we can impose an additional constraint to obtain a unique solution. The constraint used in the CRR binomial model is:

u¼1

d ð10:87Þ

We now use the following notation:

a¼expðrtÞ and b2¼expð2rtÞ expð2tÞ 1

¼a2 expð2tÞ 1

ð10:88Þ This means that Equation 10.85 can be written as

a¼puþ ð1pÞd; which gives p¼ad

ud ð10:89Þ

From Equation 10.86 we have

expð2rtþ2tÞ ¼a2expð2tÞ ¼a2þb2 and so

a2þb2¼pu2þ ð1pÞd2 Rearranging we have

pu2þ ð1pÞd2a2¼b2 pu3þ ð1pÞd2ua2ub2u¼0 but

ð1pÞd2u¼ ð1pÞd¼apu so

pu3¼ ðapuÞ a2ub2u¼0 or

pðu3uÞ þaa2b2u¼0 Now

pðu3uÞ ¼u2pðudÞ ¼u2ðadÞ ¼u2au 140 Pricing Assets

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which gives

au2uþaa2ub2u¼0

So we obtain the following quadratic equation inu:

au2uð1þa2þb2Þ þa¼0 A solution is:

u¼ð1þa2þb2Þ þ

ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð1þa2þb2Þ24a2 q

2a

If t is small we can obtain a reasonable approximation to the solution by neglecting terms of order higher thant.

In these circumstances we have:

a2þb2þ1¼expð2rtÞ þexpð2rtÞ expð2tÞ 1 þ1

1þ2rtþ ð1þ2rtÞ2tþ12þ2rtþ2t Therefore

ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ða2þb2þ1Þ24a2 q

ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi ð2þ2rtþ224ð1þ2rtÞ q

ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi 4þ8rtþ4248rt

p ¼ ffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffiffi

42t

p ¼2 ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt and so

u2þ2rtþ2tþ2 ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt 2 expðrtÞ u 1þrtþ2t

2 þ ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt

ð1rtÞ u1þrtþ2t

2 þ ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt

rt¼1þ ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt

þ2t 2 which to ordertgives: u¼expð ffiffiffiffiffiffi

pt

Þ ð10:90Þ

since

expð ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt

Þ ¼1þ ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt

þ2t

2 þ3ðtÞ3=2

6 þ ð10:91Þ

which gives:

d¼1

u¼expð ffiffiffiffiffiffi pt

Þ ð10:92Þ

It is interesting to note that whenr¼0 we havep!1/2.

Now that we know the values of the lattice parametersu,d, andpwe can use these to build a lattice with a specified number of time steps. Once this has been con- structed it can be used to compute the values and Greeks for various types of financial options. These could simply be American/European vanilla options, or more exotic options that may incorporate features such as:lockout periods,barriers, and nonstandard payoff functions.

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We will now discuss how to create a lattice which can be used to value American and European vanilla options.

If the current value of the underlying asset isS, and the duration of the option is and we use a lattice withnequally spaced time intervalst, then we have:

t¼ n

The values of the asset price at various nodes in the lattice can easily be computed.

This is illustrated in Figure 10.1, for a lattice with six time steps (that is seven lattice levels).

The asset values at the labelled nodes are:

Lattice level 1: Timet SR¼S

Lattice level 2: Timetþt SS¼Su ST¼Sd Lattice level 6: Timetþ5t

SA¼Su5 SB¼Su3 SC¼Su SD¼Sd SE¼S SF ¼Sd5 Lattice level 7: Timetþ6t

SG¼Su6 SH ¼Su4 SI¼Su2 SJ ¼S SK ¼Sd2 SL¼Sd4 SM¼Sd6

R S

U

A G H I J K L M T

1 0

2 3

4 5

6 F E D C B

V W

Figure 10.1 A standard binomial lattice consisting of six time steps. The root lattice nodeRcorresponds to the current timet, the terminal nodesGtoMare those at option maturity; that is timetþ, whereis the duration of the option. The asset value at nodeRisS, whereSis the current asset value. Asset values at other nodes are, for example, nodeS:Su, nodeT:Sd, nodeV:S, and nodeA:Su5. Option values are computed using a backward iterative process: the option values at nodesAtoFon the penultimate time step are computed from the payouts of the terminal nodesGtoM, and this process continues until the root

node is reached; which yields the current value of the option. Here we compute the Greeks using the following nodes: Delta uses nodesSandT,Gammauses nodesU,V, andWandThetauses nodesRandV

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In general, at timetþit, there areiþ1, stock prices; these are:

Si;j¼Sujdij; j¼0; 1;. . .;i

We note, that sinceu¼1=d, an up movement followed by a down movement gives the same stock price as a down movement followed by an up movement; for instance Su2d¼Su. This means that the tree recombines, and the number of nodes required to represent all the different asset prices is significantly reduced.

10.4.2 Constructing and using the binomial lattice

In this section we are concerned with the practical details of how to construct, and then use, astandardone-dimensional binomial lattice to value American and Euro- pean options. Since this lattice forms the basis for other one-dimensional and multi dimensional lattice techniques we will discuss its construction in some detail.

A complete computer program for a standard binomial lattice is given in Code excerpt 10.11, and we will use this as a basis for our discussions. For easy reference we will now list the input parameters used by this computer program:

S0 the current price of the underlying asset,S

X the strike price

sigma the volatility of the asset

T the maturity of the option in years

r the risk free interest rate

q the continuous dividend yield

put if put equals 1 then the option is a put option, if put equals 0 then it is a call option

is_american if is_american equals 1 then it is an American option, if is_american equals 0 then it is a European option

M the number of time steps in the lattice

We will now discuss in more detail the computational issues involved in each stage of the calculation.

Compute the values of the constants used by the lattice First calculate the values of various constants that will be used.

Code excerpt 10.5

For convenience, we have used the variablesp_uandp_dto store respectively the up and down jump probabilities discounted by the interest raterover one time step;

these values will be used later on when we work backwards through the lattice to calculate the current option value.

dt¼T/(double)M;

t1¼sigma*sqrt(dt);

u¼exp(t1);

d¼exp(t1);

a¼exp((rq)*dt);

p¼(ad)/(ud);

if ((p < zero) || (p > 1.0)) printf (‘‘Error p out of range\n’’);

discount¼exp(r*dt);

p_u¼discount*p;

p_d¼discount*(1.0p);

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Assign the asset values to the lattice nodes

We will now show that the number of different asset prices, LSn, for an n step recombining lattice is 2nþ1.

The nodes in a recombining lattice can be considered as being composed of two kinds: those corresponding to aneventime step, and those corresponding to anodd time step.

This is because the set of node asset values, ET, for an even time step is distinct from the set of node asset values,OT, for an odd time step. AlthoughET \ OT ¼Ø, the elements ofET andOT for any consecutive pair of time steps, are related by the simple constant multiplicative factord. Also for an even time step there is a central node corresponding to the current asset price SO, and the remaining nodes are symmetrically arranged about this. These features are illustrated in Figure 10.1, for a standard lattice with six time steps.

The number of distinct asset prices in a lattice is therefore the sum of the number of nodes in the last two time steps. Since the number of nodes in theith time step,Si, is iþ1 (see Figure 10.1), for anntime step lattice we have:

Sn¼nþ1 and Sn1¼n

This means that the number of different asset values in anntime step lattice is:

LSn¼ Snþ Sn1¼2nþ1

The number of nodes in anntime step lattice,LNn, is:

LNn¼Xn

i¼0

ðiþ1Þ ¼ðnþ1Þðnþ2Þ 2

where we have used the fact thatLNn is the sum of an arithmetic progression with first term 1, increment 1 and last termnþ1.

One might initially think that, in order to price options, it is necessary to store the asset value of each lattice node; which would entail storing LNn values. However, this is not the case. We only need to store the number ofdifferentasset values in the lattice; that isLSn values.

StoringLSnvalues instead ofLNncan result in dramatic economies of storage. For example an accurate, 1000 step lattice, has LNn¼200120021=2¼2003001, while the corresponding value ofLSn is only 21000þ1¼2001.

Code excerpt 10.6 A code fragment which assigns the different binomial lattice asset values to the storage arraysby using the up and down jump ratiosuandddefined in Section 10.4.1. The current asset valueSis assigned to the central array elements[M], whereMis the number of time steps in the lattice. The array

elements above centre areS[M + i]¼Sui,i¼1,. . .,M, and the array elements below centre are S[Mi]¼Sdii¼1,. . .,M

s[M]¼S0;

for (i¼1; i <¼M;þþi) { s[Mþi]¼u*s[Mþi1];

s[Mi]¼d*s[Miþ1];

}

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Compute the option payoff at the terminal nodes

The current value of an option is evaluated by starting at option maturity, the end of the tree and working backwards. The option values for theterminal nodesof the tree are just given by the payoff (at maturity) of the option; this is independent of whether the option is an American or European. For a lattice withntime steps there arenþ1 terminal nodes, with option values,fn,j,j¼0,. . .,n.

To compute the values of vanilla American and European options, with exercise priceE, then we will start with the following terminal node values:

for put options

fn;j¼maxðESujdnj; 0Þ; j¼0;. . .;n and for call options

fn;j¼maxðSujdnjE; 0Þ; j¼0;. . .;n The computer code used to achieve this is:

Code excerpt 10.7 A code fragment that computes the payouts for puts and calls at the lattice terminal nodes.

The payouts are assigned to elements of the arrayvand are computed using the strike price,X, and the previously computed asset values stored in arrays, as beforeMis the number of time steps in the lattice

Iterate backwards through the lattice

The probability of moving from node (i,j) at timeitto node (iþ1,jþ1) at time (iþ1)tisp, and the probability of moving from node (i,j) at timeitto the node (iþ1,j) at time (iþ1)tis 1p. If we assume that there is no early exercise then:

fi;Ej¼expðrtÞ pfiþ1;jþ1þ ð1pÞfiþ1;j

; jin1 0ji ð10:93Þ When early exercise, for an American option, is taken into account we have:

fi;Aj¼maxnESi;j; fi;jEo

ð10:94Þ

if (((Mþ1)/2)¼¼(M/2)) {/* then M is even */

if (put)

v[M/2]¼MAX(Xs[M], zero);

else

v[M/2]¼MAX(s[M]X, zero);

} P1¼2*M;

P2¼0;

for (i¼0; i < (Mþ1)/2;þþi){

if (put){

v[Mi]¼MAX(Xs[P1], zero);

v[i]¼MAX(Xs[P2], zero);

} else{

v[Mi]¼MAX(s[P1]X, zero);

v[i]¼MAX(s[P2]X, zero);

}

P1¼P12;

P2¼P2þ2;

}

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or for an American call option:

fi;Aj¼maxnSi;jE; fi;Ejo

; jiN1 0ji ð10:95Þ wherefi,jE is given by Equation 10.93.

The following code works backward through the lattice and uses the array vto store the option values.

Code excerpt 10.8 Computer code that works iteratively backward through the lattice computing the option values at each time step. The arrayvcontains the option values computed from the previous time step, and these are overwritten with option values computed for the current time step. The iteration stops

at second time step, since we do not want to overwrite values in the arrayvwhich are required for calculating the Greeks in the neighbourhood of the root node

At each time step the newly calculated option values overwrite those computed by the previous time step. This process is continued until the second time step(m1¼2) is reached. A different technique is then used, which doesn’t overwrite the option values and thus allows the Greeks to be computed in the vicinity of the root lattice node R. In cases where we are not interested in calculating the Greeks (see for example Code excerpt 12.6) we continue working backward through the lattice until the root node R(m1 ¼0)is reached, and the current value of the option is then given byv[0](or its multidimensional equivalent).

The option values at all lattice nodes in time steps 0, 1, and 2 are made accessible by the following code:

P2¼0;

for (m1¼M1; m1 >¼2;m1) { P2¼P2þ1;

P1¼P2;

for (n¼0; n <¼m1;þþn){

if ((v[n]¼¼zero) && (v[nþ1]¼¼zero)){

hold¼zero;

} else

hold¼p_d*v[n]þp_u*v[nþ1];

if (is_american){

if (put)

v[n]¼MAX(hold, Xs[P1]);

else

v[n]¼MAX(hold, s[P1]X);

} else

v[n]¼hold;

P1¼P1þ2;

} }

jj¼2;

for (m1¼2; m1 >¼1; --m1){

ind¼Mm1þ1;

for (n¼0; n < m1;þþn){

hold¼p_d*v[5jjm11]þp_u*v[5jjm1];

if (is_american) { if (put)

v[5jj]¼MAX(hold, Xs[ind]);

else

v[5jj]¼MAX(hold, s[ind]X);

} else

v[5jj]¼hold;

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Code excerpt 10.9 Code fragment illustrating how the option values are stored for the first two time steps so that the Greeks can be computed in the vicinity of the root nodeR

Figure 10.2 presents the results for the valuation of an American put option.

Computing the greeks:,, and

We will now describe how to calculate the option’s hedge statistics (Greeks).

Let the option value and asset value at lattice node k be denoted by fk and Sk

respectively. So, for instance,ST represents the asset price at nodeT, andfT is the corresponding option value at nodeT. Table 10.4 supplies details of the lattice node values in the vicinity of the root nodeR.

jj;

ind¼indþ2;

} }

*value¼v[5];

0.2 0.15 0.1 0.05 0 –0.05 –0.1 –0.15 –0.2

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100

Number of time steps

Error in estimated value

American put

Figure 10.2 The error in the estimated value,est val, of an American put using a standard binomial lattice.

The parameters used were:T¼1:0,S¼105:0,X¼105:0,r¼0:1,q¼0:02,¼0:3. The very accurate value (acc val) was 9.2508 and was computed using a 6000 step standard binomial lattice. The error in the

estimated value was obtained asest valacc val

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The computation of each Greek is now considered.

Delta

The definition ofis the rate of change of the option value with asset price; all other parameters remaining fixed. Thus

¼@f

@S¼f S

wheref is the change option value corresponding to the change in the asset price S. Ideally we would like to evaluate this partial derivative at the root nodeR(m1 = 0), however we can’t because we need at least two lattice nodes to compute a value.

The best we can do is to evaluate the derivative at the first time step (m1 = 1) as follows:

¼ fSfT

SSST

¼ v[4]v[3]

s[Mþ1]s[M1]

Gamma

The definition of is the rate of change ofwith asset price; all other parameters remaining fixed. Thus

¼@2f

@S2¼@

@S

In order to evaluate we require at least two values of. The nearest this can be achieved to the root nodeRis at time step 2, where we have:

¼UVVW SUVSVW with the midpoints

SUV ¼1

2fSUþSVg

and the values of at the midpoints SUV and SVW denoted by UV and VW respectively. Since

Table 10.4 Lattice node values in the vicinity of the root nodeR

Node Time step Asset array element Asset value Option array element

R 0 s[M] S v[5]

S 1 s[M+1] Su v[4]

T 1 s[M1] Sd v[3]

U 2 s[M+2] Su2 v[2]

V 2 s[M] S v[1]

W 2 s[M2] Sd2 v[0]

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UV¼ fUfV

SUSV; VW ¼ fVfW

SVSW and

SUVSVW ¼1

2fSUSWg we have

UV¼ v[2]v[1]

s[Mþ2]s[M]; VW ¼ v[1]v[0]

s[M]s[M2]

The value ofcan therefore be approximated as:

¼ 2 UVVW s[Mþ2]s[M2]

Theta

The definition of is the rate of change of option value with time; all other parameters remaining fixed. Thus

¼@f

@t¼f t

The nearest to the root nodeRthat can be computed is over the time interval from time step 0 to time step 2. We then obtain the following approximation:

¼ fVfR

2t ¼v[1]v[5]

2t

The Code excerpt 10.10 computes the,, andby using the approximations we have just discussed.

Vega

The definition ofVis the rate of change of the option value with volatility.

V ¼@f

@

In a standard binomial latticeVcannot be computed directly. A simple approach is to use two binomial lattices as follows

V ¼fþf

where fþ is the option value computed using a binomial lattice with volatility þ and f is the option value computed using another binomial lattice with a volatility of; all other lattice parameters remain constant.

if(greeks){

/* assign the value of delta (obtained from m1¼1) */

greeks[1]¼(v[4]v[3])/(s[Mþ1]s[M1]);

/* assign the value of gamma (use the values at time step m1¼2) */

Numeric methods and single asset American options 149

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